The 1918 pandemic had an estimated infection rate of about 20+% and a mortality rate of 5%.
Most researchers are saying H5N1 is similair to H1N1 but is far more pathonogenic.
The "Median worst-case US mortality forecast" is missing some very important variables for it to be useful for me. I don't know what the variables are but I would consider it to be how contagious is the emerging pandemic and what is the rate of mortality.
If we are going to compare the viruses, we would use the current data since it is all we have..... but that would scare the hell out of people.
U.S. Population = 295,734,134 people (July 2005, CIA World Fact Book)
20% Infected = 59,146,827 people
Current Death Rate around 60% = 35,488,096 deaths / far more than six million.
If you used the Spanish Flu death rate of 5% = 2,957,341 deaths / over half of the amount of the projected mortality rate of the Carnegie-Mellon Conference experts.
Now, lets say that only 2% of the United States got avian flu..... that would be 5,914,683 people..... lets keep the high end value on mortality from the current strains (60%).. that would mean a mortality amount of 3,548,810 people.
The basics are.... until we know the how the pandemic emerges in each wave, we will not be able to calculate a mortality or infection rate.
x value is the population
y value is the infection rate
z value is the mortality percentage
The "experts at Carnegie Mellon" can assume to know the y and z values... but these are only models that have not been proven.... We all know what it means to ASS.U.M.E.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.... Anything less is a deathnell.... Something survivors don't look at. I strongly dislike scientists who low ball potentials when it comes to statistics. It is a disservice to all.
Most researchers are saying H5N1 is similair to H1N1 but is far more pathonogenic.
The "Median worst-case US mortality forecast" is missing some very important variables for it to be useful for me. I don't know what the variables are but I would consider it to be how contagious is the emerging pandemic and what is the rate of mortality.
If we are going to compare the viruses, we would use the current data since it is all we have..... but that would scare the hell out of people.
U.S. Population = 295,734,134 people (July 2005, CIA World Fact Book)
20% Infected = 59,146,827 people
Current Death Rate around 60% = 35,488,096 deaths / far more than six million.
If you used the Spanish Flu death rate of 5% = 2,957,341 deaths / over half of the amount of the projected mortality rate of the Carnegie-Mellon Conference experts.
Now, lets say that only 2% of the United States got avian flu..... that would be 5,914,683 people..... lets keep the high end value on mortality from the current strains (60%).. that would mean a mortality amount of 3,548,810 people.
The basics are.... until we know the how the pandemic emerges in each wave, we will not be able to calculate a mortality or infection rate.
x value is the population
y value is the infection rate
z value is the mortality percentage
The "experts at Carnegie Mellon" can assume to know the y and z values... but these are only models that have not been proven.... We all know what it means to ASS.U.M.E.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.... Anything less is a deathnell.... Something survivors don't look at. I strongly dislike scientists who low ball potentials when it comes to statistics. It is a disservice to all.
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