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  • #31
    Re: mortality statistics

    http://news.google.com/newspapers?ni...g=1197,5054559
    William Sanders , national heart and lung institute
    prescribing drugs for high blood pressure

    130000 Vietnamese refugees

    John Armstrong, chief of mortality statistics at the census bureau

    better medical care, better diet , better access to medical care

    http://news.google.com/newspapers?ni...&pg=5334,74761

    ----------------------------------

    just in USA, not in Canada,Europe ?

    the (suddenly increased speed of) decline in deaths was seen in
    deaths from multiple causes, including diabetes,bronchitis,
    pneumonia, liver/gallbladder/pancreas,ischemic heart disease,
    but most from stroke and hypertensive disease.
    But not in cancer deaths.

    We typically see this multi-decline each year in summer.
    (seasonality of deaths)
    But the 1974-1976 decline is profound and long-lived.

    Deaths from smog, air-pollution gives a similar patter
    of causes, but the effect should not have been so big,
    whatever pollutant might have been reduced starting
    in 1974.
    Maybe a general change in diet of the elderly
    or food additives ? Or sudden availability of blood-pressure
    measurement for the masses ? Some health campaign ?
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: mortality statistics

      Medicaid expansion in U.S. states cut death rates, Harvard study shows
      http://newyork.newsday.com/news/nati...hows-1.3861942

      remember how US-death rates went down so much in 2012, I posted about it.
      The P+I - death ratio also went down.

      Is it "Obamacare" ? Which reduces i.e.pneumonia deaths more than other deaths like cancer-deaths

      was there a similar program in 1974 so to explain the 1974-1976 US-death-decline-mystery ?
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: mortality statistics

        Code:
        winter-deaths/(previous)summer-deaths
        
        average 2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  country
        -----------------------------------------------------------------------
         1.020 ,-----,-----,-----,1.012,.9998,1.041,1.007,1.041,-----,Russia
         1.054 ,1.062,1.060,1.100,1.050,1.046,1.049,1.055,1.063,1.007,Slowakia
         1.069 ,1.028,1.088,1.159,1.093,1.062,1.133,1.074,.9929,.9990,Iceland
         1.070 ,-----,-----,-----,1.079,1.056,1.067,1.078,-----,-----,Belarus
         1.074 ,1.123,1.048,1.110,1.040,1.032,1.086,1.096,1.077,1.055,Czech
         1.075 ,1.060,1.083,1.056,1.050,1.101,1.083,1.101,1.086,1.059,Finland
         1.080 ,1.087,1.062,1.137,1.071,1.059,1.067,1.102,1.076,1.067,Slowenia
         1.084 ,1.107,1.122,1.099,1.121,1.095,1.073,1.027,1.055,1.060,Estonia
         1.084 ,1.119,1.081,1.096,1.068,1.055,1.113,1.118,1.059,1.050,Poland
         1.085 ,1.101,1.116,1.108,1.080,1.100,1.036,1.081,1.059,-----,Grece
         1.089 ,1.098,1.087,1.121,1.146,1.110,1.056,1.045,1.101,1.043,Lituania
         1.089 ,1.107,1.094,1.095,1.073,1.063,1.078,1.129,1.103,1.059,Danmark
         1.090 ,1.132,1.092,1.135,1.063,1.075,1.055,1.103,1.087,1.072,Ungarn
         1.094 ,1.134,1.035,1.110,1.081,1.051,1.126,1.142,1.108,1.060,Germany
         1.094 ,1.135,1.111,1.126,1.106,1.114,1.075,1.060,1.077,1.042,Latvia
         1.095 ,1.084,1.101,1.109,1.080,1.103,1.083,1.114,1.091,----,,Norway
         1.095 ,1.103,1.074,1.114,1.103,1.054,1.131,1.118,1.100,1.062,Netherlands
         1.095 ,1.118,.9955,1.138,1.148,1.071,1.024,1.155,1.157,1.049,Luxemburg
         1.096 ,-----,-----,-----,1.109,1.083,1.098,-----,-----,-----,Ukraine
         1.104 ,1.096,1.012,1.168,1.102,1.079,1.138,1.143,1.110,1.089,France
         1.105 ,1.098,1.083,1.135,1.084,1.099,1.108,1.119,1.111,1.109,Sweden
         1.105 ,1.130,1.069,1.152,1.092,1.059,1.102,1.151,1.089,-----,Austria
         1.105 ,1.153,.8532,1.322,1.142,1.020,1.145,1.126,1.084,-----,Liechtenstein
         1.107 ,1.099,1.014,1.172,1.105,1.082,1.141,1.148,1.114,1.093,France(metrop.)
         1.109 ,1.096,1.077,1.140,1.107,1.089,1.120,1.142,1.104,-----,EFTA
         1.110 ,1.144,1.088,1.159,1.099,1.150,1.097,1.086,1.096,1.078,(Mazedonia)
         1.111 ,-----,-----,1.157,1.112,1.105,1.096,1.104,1.095,-----,Bosnia
         1.112 ,1.124,1.060,1.155,1.102,1.086,1.128,1.135,-----,-----,EU,25
         1.113 ,1.105,1.061,1.160,1.127,1.081,1.146,1.163,1.116,1.061,Schweiz
         1.113 ,1.124,1.061,1.155,1.102,1.087,1.127,1.135,-----,-----,EWR,(EU-25+IS,LI,NO)
         1.113 ,1.154,1.131,1.186,1.071,1.065,1.110,1.105,1.083,-----,Serbia
         1.115 ,1.127,1.045,1.169,1.106,1.085,1.136,1.137,-----,-----,Euro,17
         1.115 ,1.127,1.045,1.170,1.106,1.085,1.136,1.138,-----,-----,Euro,16
         1.116 ,1.129,1.044,1.171,1.107,1.086,1.138,1.139,-----,-----,Euro,15
         1.116 ,1.130,1.071,1.156,1.104,1.089,1.128,1.134,-----,-----,EWR,(EU-27+IS,LI,NO)
         1.116 ,1.130,1.071,1.157,1.105,1.089,1.129,1.135,-----,-----,EU,27
         1.116 ,1.159,1.079,1.175,1.104,1.100,1.102,1.120,1.090,-----,Croatia
         1.119 ,1.157,1.010,1.216,1.124,1.089,1.147,1.106,1.111,1.117,Italia
         1.122 ,-----,-----,-----,1.104,1.153,1.133,1.117,1.103,-----,Aserbaidschan
         1.129 ,1.121,1.081,1.173,1.120,1.082,1.170,1.162,1.123,1.131,Belgium
         1.134 ,1.134,1.100,1.134,1.146,1.142,1.139,1.164,1.119,-----,Ireland
         1.135 ,1.118,1.112,1.147,1.128,1.122,1.136,1.161,1.152,1.144,UK
         1.147 ,1.206,1.179,1.176,1.176,1.138,1.150,1.105,1.134,1.064,Bulgaria
         1.148 ,1.203,1.220,1.174,1.115,1.106,1.136,1.145,1.159,1.081,Rumania
         1.151 ,1.138,1.079,1.269,1.139,1.149,1.170,1.164,1.122,1.134,Spain
         1.155 ,1.156,1.214,1.205,1.067,1.219,1.076,1.154,-----,-----,Cyprus
         1.199 ,-----,-----,-----,1.201,1.172,1.154,1.188,1.283,-----,Moldava
         1.214 ,1.180,1.147,1.330,1.200,1.197,1.218,1.285,1.214,1.161,Portugal
         1.216 ,-----,-----,-----,-----,-----,1.228,1.233,1.187,-----,Georgia
         1.231 ,1.227,1.200,1.332,1.271,1.113,1.271,1.204,1.133,1.336,Malta
        Code:
        deaths from respiratory causes per 1M population
        2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010
        -------------------------------------------------------------------
         470 , 497 , 514 , 468 , 495 , 446 , 464 , 453 , 436 , 000 ,EU27
         468 , 490 , 516 , 466 , 492 , 440 , 444 , 444 , 430 , 000 ,EU15
         000 , 000 , 000 , 650 , 689 , 602 , 000 , 000 , 000 , 000 ,Belgium
         392 , 347 , 361 , 331 , 437 , 402 , 423 , 417 , 397 , 382 ,Bulgaria
         376 , 382 , 423 , 373 , 463 , 420 , 412 , 402 , 438 , 410 ,Czech
         662 , 715 , 712 , 641 , 610 , 606 , 639 , 625 , 665 , 000 ,Denmark
         362 , 396 , 424 , 379 , 401 , 370 , 380 , 377 , 395 , 370 ,Germany
         368 , 363 , 371 , 335 , 275 , 286 , 270 , 265 , 239 , 000 ,Estonia
        1056 ,1001 ,1002 , 888 , 899 , 892 , 671 , 693 , 706 , 603 ,Ireland
         450 , 482 , 460 , 467 , 483 , 495 , 549 , 535 , 537 , 491 ,Greece
         560 , 603 , 616 , 533 , 618 , 505 , 545 , 528 , 503 , 452 ,Spain
         324 , 336 , 355 , 297 , 330 , 278 , 278 , 273 , 276 , 000 ,France
         323 , 335 , 356 , 296 , 330 , 277 , 277 , 272 , 275 , 000 ,France_metrop
         318 , 329 , 364 , 000 , 000 , 291 , 296 , 286 , 294 , 000 ,Italy
         000 , 000 , 000 , 405 , 420 , 376 , 403 , 363 , 394 , 000 ,Cyprus
         286 , 304 , 293 , 280 , 331 , 327 , 312 , 250 , 227 , 223 ,Latvia
         371 , 394 , 390 , 391 , 424 , 413 , 461 , 395 , 357 , 000 ,Lithuania
         495 , 608 , 642 , 477 , 446 , 404 , 432 , 398 , 439 , 365 ,Luxembourg
         336 , 360 , 414 , 391 , 477 , 455 , 480 , 434 , 443 , 425 ,Hungary
         812 , 765 , 715 , 673 , 605 , 535 , 522 , 536 , 511 , 472 ,Malta
         606 , 601 , 624 , 549 , 601 , 561 , 542 , 534 , 528 , 481 ,Netherlands
         309 , 325 , 402 , 345 , 350 , 320 , 318 , 286 , 283 , 000 ,Austria
         389 , 376 , 413 , 393 , 422 , 406 , 414 , 400 , 418 , 382 ,Poland
         585 , 593 , 598 , 530 , 666 , 659 , 605 , 620 , 637 , 595 ,Portugal
         638 , 686 , 624 , 603 , 570 , 531 , 518 , 495 , 506 , 000 ,Romania
         547 , 564 , 618 , 560 , 517 , 433 , 354 , 364 , 378 , 324 ,Slovenia
         524 , 551 , 588 , 543 , 560 , 516 , 538 , 499 , 517 , 524 ,Slovakia
         503 , 494 , 458 , 369 , 300 , 250 , 258 , 223 , 244 , 213 ,Finland
         355 , 381 , 359 , 327 , 344 , 308 , 308 , 314 , 307 , 000 ,Sweden
         781 , 801 , 853 , 792 , 809 , 745 , 737 , 747 , 696 , 677 ,UK
         417 , 415 , 414 , 391 , 473 , 392 , 393 , 434 , 423 , 000 ,Iceland
         562 , 595 , 512 , 446 , 510 , 488 , 510 , 499 , 494 , 000 ,Norway
         316 , 330 , 331 , 301 , 327 , 276 , 272 , 262 , 285 , 255 ,Switzerland
         349 , 374 , 461 , 489 , 522 , 391 , 408 , 337 , 332 , 281 ,Croatia
         326 , 357 , 432 , 397 , 413 , 375 , 376 , 378 , 334 , 000 ,(Macedonia)

        Code:
        correlations of yearly respiratory deathrates 2001-2009
        
        m=33 n=9 
        corr.               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          1 EU27           --  98 -31   2  54  66  68  64 -60  96  93  93  89  47  14  81 -25  64  86  82 -12 -19  72  79  89  68  83  93  28  41  84  58  59   1 EU27          
          2 EU15           98  -- -37   2  54  66  72  72 -71  93  96  96  94  40 - 1  82 -32  69  89  84 -13 -20  75  87  88  72  84  96  30  36  89  58  58   2 EU15          
          3 Bulgaria      -31 -37  --  64 -64 -18 -70 -50  54 -12 -37 -36 -54  14  44 -66  68 -59 -23 -37  62  77 -67 -65 -35 -63 -47 -42  50 - 4 -42 -11 - 6   3 Bulgaria      
          4 Czech           2   2  64  -- -31  49 -60 -30  31  15 - 1   0 - 3  15  23 -24  78 -56   0  13  88  82 -48 -26  19 -52 -27 - 9  59 -22   0  29  35   4 Czech         
          5 Denmark        54  54 -64 -31  --  54  65  45 -32  46  62  62  56 -21 -41  90 -59  62  49  34 -39 -42  67  54  52  73  69  42 -15  56  58 -15 - 6   5 Denmark       
          6 Germany        66  66 -18  49  54  --  15  14 -12  64  59  60  66   2 - 5  64  18   8  43  66  36  12  23  40  78  19  39  52  34   6  55  42  60   6 Germany       
          7 Estonia        68  72 -70 -60  65  15  --  87 -84  55  77  77  73  25 -25  81 -80  94  76  57 -63 -60  92  88  54  95  82  77 -23  46  71  17  11   7 Estonia       
          8 Ireland        64  72 -50 -30  45  14  87  -- -95  58  82  82  71  40 -30  68 -69  89  88  55 -48 -25  88  90  51  87  82  75   2  48  82  26   8   8 Ireland       
          9 Greece        -60 -71  54  31 -32 -12 -84 -95  -- -52 -77 -76 -76 -33  33 -59  65 -85 -79 -61  40  37 -81 -93 -52 -80 -71 -78 - 2 -22 -78 -41 -21   9 Greece        
         10 Spain          96  93 -12  15  46  64  55  58 -52  --  91  91  80  47  16  71 -18  59  85  70 - 5 - 3  66  69  83  61  82  85  48  51  85  53  50  10 Spain         
         11 France         93  96 -37 - 1  62  59  77  82 -77  91  --  99  90  36 -15  85 -45  79  95  74 -20 -17  83  89  82  82  91  89  30  52  95  44  36  11 France        
         12 France_metrop  93  96 -36   0  62  60  77  82 -76  91  99  --  91  36 -14  85 -44  79  95  75 -18 -17  82  89  83  82  91  90  31  51  95  44  38  12 France_metrop 
         13 Italy          89  94 -54 - 3  56  66  73  71 -76  80  90  91  --  28 -12  82 -35  68  79  89 - 8 -37  74  91  91  72  75  92  14  16  88  66  58  13 Italy         
         14 Latvia         47  40  14  15 -21   2  25  40 -33  47  36  36  28  --  69  11  19  16  51  50   2  22  30  31  44  17  28  46   0  19  33  56  41  14 Latvia        
         15 Lithuania      14 - 1  44  23 -41 - 5 -25 -30  33  16 -15 -14 -12  69  -- -25  61 -36 - 7  18  29  21 -24 -28  17 -34 -22   3 - 8 - 9 -22  40  41  15 Lithuania     
         16 Luxembourg     81  82 -66 -24  90  64  81  68 -59  71  85  85  82  11 -25  -- -55  74  75  67 -35 -40  83  80  77  84  84  75 - 6  51  80  19  25  16 Luxembourg    
         17 Hungary       -25 -32  68  78 -59  18 -80 -69  65 -18 -45 -44 -35  19  61 -55  -- -87 -43 - 2  84  64 -77 -61 - 5 -84 -66 -34  20 -51 -47  26  39  17 Hungary       
         18 Malta          64  69 -59 -56  62   8  94  89 -85  59  79  79  68  16 -36  74 -87  --  78  41 -66 -55  94  86  46  98  88  70 - 1  59  79  11 - 6  18 Malta         
         19 Netherlands    86  89 -23   0  49  43  76  88 -79  85  95  95  79  51 - 7  75 -43  78  --  69 -19 - 3  79  83  72  80  87  85  27  57  89  37  30  19 Netherlands   
         20 Austria        82  84 -37  13  34  66  57  55 -61  70  74  75  89  50  18  67 - 2  41  69  --  14 -20  50  75  92  47  49  87   0 - 6  66  77  81  20 Austria       
         21 Poland        -12 -13  62  88 -39  36 -63 -48  40 - 5 -20 -18 - 8   2  29 -35  84 -66 -19  14  --  59 -65 -38  13 -61 -53 -19  33 -50 -21  31  38  21 Poland        
         22 Portugal      -19 -20  77  82 -42  12 -60 -25  37 - 3 -17 -17 -37  22  21 -40  64 -55 - 3 -20  59  -- -49 -44 -18 -53 -28 -29  52   5 -18 - 9   1  22 Portugal      
         23 Romania        72  75 -67 -48  67  23  92  88 -81  66  83  82  74  30 -24  83 -77  94  79  50 -65 -49  --  89  59  96  93  73 - 4  60  85  22   3  23 Romania       
         24 Slovenia       79  87 -65 -26  54  40  88  90 -93  69  89  89  91  31 -28  80 -61  86  83  75 -38 -44  89  --  73  86  83  89   4  28  89  50  35  24 Slovenia      
         25 Slovakia       89  88 -35  19  52  78  54  51 -52  83  82  83  91  44  17  77 - 5  46  72  92  13 -18  59  73  --  54  62  82  12  15  79  71  67  25 Slovakia      
         26 Finland        68  72 -63 -52  73  19  95  87 -80  61  82  82  72  17 -34  84 -84  98  80  47 -61 -53  96  86  54  --  90  70 - 8  62  81  10 - 4  26 Finland       
         27 Sweden         83  84 -47 -27  69  39  82  82 -71  82  91  91  75  28 -22  84 -66  88  87  49 -53 -28  93  83  62  90  --  78  23  72  90  19  10  27 Sweden        
         28 UK             93  96 -42 - 9  42  52  77  75 -78  85  89  90  92  46   3  75 -34  70  85  87 -19 -29  73  89  82  70  78  --  19  23  81  64  65  28 UK            
         29 Iceland        28  30  50  59 -15  34 -23   2 - 2  48  30  31  14   0 - 8 - 6  20 - 1  27   0  33  52 - 4   4  12 - 8  23  19  --  19  33  20  16  29 Iceland       
         30 Norway         41  36 - 4 -22  56   6  46  48 -22  51  52  51  16  19 - 9  51 -51  59  57 - 6 -50   5  60  28  15  62  72  23  19  --  48 -36 -40  30 Norway        
         31 Switzerland    84  89 -42   0  58  55  71  82 -78  85  95  95  88  33 -22  80 -47  79  89  66 -21 -18  85  89  79  81  90  81  33  48  --  47  26  31 Switzerland   
         32 Croatia        58  58 -11  29 -15  42  17  26 -41  53  44  44  66  56  40  19  26  11  37  77  31 - 9  22  50  71  10  19  64  20 -36  47  --  81  32 Croatia       
         33 (Macedonia)    59  58 - 6  35 - 6  60  11   8 -21  50  36  38  58  41  41  25  39 - 6  30  81  38   1   3  35  67 - 4  10  65  16 -40  26  81  --  33 (Macedonia)   
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        corr.               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33
        Attached Files
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: mortality statistics

          do more deaths occur in winter, if we go South (closer to the equator) ?
          Attached Files
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: mortality statistics

            2010 is available now and downloaded.

            However, I wonder whether those data are complete or additional
            death-certificates will be added later
            I can't find my numbers with google

            monthly USA-deaths 2001-2010

            Code:
             226976  226269  224460  238085  226822  220491  222496  224358  223341  223161 
             198968  209729  200835  204474  213660  201424  205101  223866  200750  200596 
             215850  226773  213873  210338  231486  222616  218521  233149  216539  219278 
             203027  200051  199672  196664  205188  202438  203303  207206  203284  202607 
             200929  200130  199478  194756  201211  201005  200107  202821  200802  204244 
             191547  188004  191861  186578  187732  188790  188620  190999  191283  192813 
             191578  193578  193996  191099  191821  194983  192725  192404  194924  199391 
             191284  191314  192864  189725  191183  191345  192169  192327  192857  197269 
             189107  187837  188803  184769  185855  188479  188808  188135  190016  193424 
             202679  200253  203089  198484  198348  202552  198969  200910  207592  207146 
             197400  202580  201375  194091  198943  200775  200535  201922  201668  206429 
             210615  220278  241848  212337  220257  215827  216989  218714  218163  226184 
            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            2419960 2446796 2452154 2401400 2452506 2430725 2428343 2476811 2441219 2472542
            just one google-hit if I delete the latest numbers:
            pfortuny.net/doc/metodos.pdf

            OK, CDC gives "resident deaths" as 2423712,2471984,2437163 for 2007,2008,2009
            I might have to check for residency to get the correct numbers

            that gives corrections for foreigner's death certificates in 1959...2010 of:
            0
            0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
            1935,1934,1029*2,2123,2088,2256,2467,2509,2839,293 5
            3296,3285,3236,2989,2935,2938,3023,3019,3197(+101) ,3393(+123)
            3427(+141),3542(+139),3574(+149),3394,3294,3119,35 22,3341,3452,3472
            3842,3535,3409,3866,3785,4489,4461,4631,4827,4056
            4107

            that doesn't change the statistics much, just for googling the numbers

            new corrected numbers of US-deaths 1959...2010 :

            1660172
            1711982,1701522,1756720,1813549,1798051,1828136,18 63149,1851323,1930082,1921990
            1921031,1927542,1963944,1973003,1934388,1892879,19 09440,1899597,1927788,1913841
            1989841,1978032,1974725,2019201,2039369,2086440,21 05361,2123323,2167999,2150466
            2148463,2169518,2175613,2268553,2278994,2312132,23 14690,2314245,2337256,2391399
            2403351,2416425,2443387,2448288,2397615,2448017,24 26264,2423712,2471984,2437163
            2468435
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: mortality statistics

              http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23045622
              annual flu excess deaths 1998-2009 in HK :111/M (95%CI=[72,146]) (USA:133)
              751 (95% CI: 488-990) flu-excess deaths annually, 95% of them in elderly >65y.
              53% respiratory 18% cardiovascular.
              H3N2 worse than H1N1 or B
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: mortality statistics

                report about excess winter mortality in the UK :
                http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_288362.pdf



                20th century mortality tables for England and Wales
                by sex,age-group,cause,year
                http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publicatio...37;3A77-215593
                http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publicatio...cm%3A77-276237

                "excel" - format only. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Excel
                Maybe someone can convert it all to normal ...

                ----------------edit---------------------
                paper associating the decrease in seasonal deaths in England since 2000
                to a change in vaccination strategy:
                http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3733298/
                Attached Files
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: mortality statistics

                  examining double-peaks due to cocirculating strains with different
                  timings
                  (where daily data are available : 1962-1967,1972-1988)


                  examining how immunity favours other strains in the next season

                  CDC exists since 1946, but the first influenza surveillance reports
                  are from 1957. Are there flu-reports from earlier ?
                  CDC always had the weekly mortality data from the 108...122 US-cities.
                  Are these available from before 1996 , before 1959 ?


                  data in file us59_3.txt below and below from CDC-reports :

                  Code:
                  season,H1,H2,H3,B
                  1957f,0,99e,0,0
                  1958f,1e,24e,0,75e
                  1959f,3,94,0,3
                  1960f,3e,66noflu,0,31noflu
                  1961f,1e,4e,0,95e
                  1962f,0,99,0,0
                  1963f,0,95e,0,5e
                  1964f,0,70e,0,30e
                  1965f,0,40e,0,60e
                  1966f,0,50e,0,50e
                  1967f,0,95,0,5
                  1968f,0,1e,84,15
                  1969f,0,0,90e,10e
                  1970f,0,0,85,5
                  1971f,0,0,99,1
                  1972f,0,0,96,4
                  1973f,0,0,24,76
                  1974f,0,0,99,0
                  1975f,0,0,98,2
                  1976f,0,0,30,70
                  1977f,29e,0,70e,1e
                  1978f,97e,0,0e,3e
                  1979f,1,0,1,98
                  1980f,24,0,76,0
                  1981f,25,0,1,74
                  1982f,10,0,79,11
                  1983f,50,0,5,45
                  1984f,0,0,97,3
                  1985f,0,0,24,76
                  1986f,99,0,0,1
                  1987f,8,0,75,17
                  1988f,49,0,7,43
                  1989f,1,0,98,0
                  1990f,6,0,8,86
                  1991f,18,0,81,1
                  1992f,3,0,26,71
                  1993f,1,0,98,1
                  1994f,2,0,72,26
                  1995f,50,0,35,15
                  1996f,0,0,78(65),22
                  1997f,0,0,99,1
                  1998f,1,0,76,23
                  1999f,4,0,95,1
                  2000f,51,0,2,47
                  2001f,1,0,84,14
                  2002f,40,0,17,44
                  2003f,0,0,99,1
                  2004f,0,0,75,25
                  2005f,6,0,74,19
                  2006f,49,0,30,21
                  2007f,19,0,52,29
                  2008f,40(76),0,21,38
                  2009f,99mx,0,0,0
                  2010f,28,0,46,26
                  2011f,21,0,61,18
                  2012f,1,0,76,22

                  ----------------edit-------------------
                  charts sea41.gif added on 2012/02/25

                  seasonality of deaths , USA,Europe,dominant flu-strains
                  Attached Files
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: mortality statistics

                    see here, how the 1918-pandemic actually _reduced_ the deathrates
                    in the elderly in a profound and longlasting manner.

                    The effect is most clearly seen in the >35 age-groups

                    The years 1918-1920 were bad, but they were necessary
                    to build up immunity, so (young) people stopped dying from it.

                    It is the pattern since today, that H1 rarely kills, but H3 often kills
                    the elderly - it's still not clear why, afaik.
                    They are dying from respiratory issues, but also from ischemic heart
                    disease, even diabetes and other causes. Txpically influenza is not
                    noticed in these deaths. I'm speculating that (H3,not H1)
                    immun responses are somehow confusing the whole meatabolism
                    which makes them more vulnerable to blood-clumbs and such.

                    Serological evidence had been reported, that before 1918 there
                    was also H3. Which apparently was killed by H1N1 in 1918





                    here is the data, so others can find and reuse it



                    deathrates per million population, USA
                    (file eaage12

                    Code:
                    deathrate from P+I for 11 age groups
                    1900,2022,16821,3866,382,481,762,1141,1752,3294,6924,15313,28995
                    1901,1972,15203,3153,344,493,769,1122,1689,3327,7246,17468,36102
                    1902,1613,16508,3563,315,374,564,841,1272,2322,4775,10490,19161
                    1903,1693,15400,3088,306,378,616,944,1432,2690,5673,13279,25510
                    1904,1921,16457,3320,321,423,722,1174,1713,3221,6560,13717,32335
                    1905,1693,15986,2984,275,350,570,946,1420,2719,5830,13498,29226
                    1906,1563,16499,3249,264,332,514,829,1260,2395,4925,10392,21680
                    1907,1800,16207,3103,287,370,627,1007,1527,2975,6635,15700,32789
                    1908,1509,15186,2759,264,294,450,755,1247,2380,5360,13056,26139
                    1909,1481,16198,2891,246,268,427,736,1130,2238,5093,11668,23601
                    1910,1559,16290,2856,254,292,469,788,1257,2502,5566,12928,25550
                    1911,1454,14093,2442,233,286,430,739,1206,2354,5517,13251,27922
                    1912,1384,14910,2382,202,261,416,694,1108,2199,4933,11724,23965
                    1913,1408,15025,2503,232,272,424,732,1129,2148,4837,11602,24150
                    1914,1324,14398,2148,219,255,387,675,1102,2115,4601,10964,22446
                    1915,1459,14894,2055,218,280,430,710,1211,2400,5679,13715,29304
                    1916,1633,14140,2217,230,350,514,877,1404,2773,6613,16315,36988
                    1917,1645,14745,2115,240,389,593,981,1488,2814,6146,15030,31874
                    1918,5885,22733,7180,1762,5805,9926,5548,3478,3819,6463,11790,22306
                    1919,2230,15942,2939,633,1414,2859,1810,1639,2332,4596,9139,18422
                    1920,2073,14950,2837,451,1013,1806,1640,1649,2558,5459,11943,23701
                    1921,987,9795,1468,220,263,327,516,782,1455,3354,8426,18419
                    1922,1323,12650,1900,240,370,512,777,1031,1934,4571,11250,25303
                    1923,1517,13566,2007,260,435,560,879,1269,2237,5498,14319,34740
                    1924,1152,11848,1518,200,322,410,679,1031,1704,3799,9530,23613
                    1925,1217,11751,1503,233,361,443,741,1043,1778,4049,10716,27585
                    1926,1417,14005,1981,230,356,604,839,1227,2045,4700,12969,32454
                    1927,1022,10160,1291,188,273,374,624,922,1530,3400,8736,21688
                    1928,1425,13215,1766,275,428,566,916,1284,2037,4693,13055,33639
                    1929,1465,13219,1791,258,410,583,926,1322,2177,4967,14071,34928
                    1930,1025,10901,1231,188,278,389,611,957,1646,3370,8343,18844
                    1931,1075,11054,1253,196,304,446,678,1010,1649,3404,8840,21747
                    1932,1073,10305,1158,204,305,425,652,955,1629,3484,10065,26162
                    1933,957,9900,1090,175,250,380,597,884,1493,3005,8362,21688
                    1934,969,10553,1154,178,246,363,576,923,1571,3025,8029,19002
                    1935,1042,10029,1116,199,286,436,666,1016,1669,3259,8535,20718
                    1936,1196,10904,1193,218,356,501,778,1189,1941,3722,9776,23302
                    1937,1149,10364,1124,179,294,458,721,1169,1898,3576,9603,24259
                    1938,804,9019,902,137,184,270,423,709,1233,2482,6775,15921
                    1939,757,7937,703,114,152,222,371,635,1137,2456,7170,19301
                    1940,703,8701,625,90,115,171,286,518,937,2264,6912,19299
                    1941,638,7720,571,80,101,151,266,471,856,1966,6009,18132
                    1942,557,6944,477,66,86,130,243,420,754,1671,4730,12958
                    1943,671,6761,547,81,103,151,285,514,920,1970,5711,17091
                    1944,616,6230,454,70,86,126,233,429,824,1823,5509,16884
                    1945,516,5901,384,69,88,114,200,350,644,1364,4179,12575
                    1946,445,5272,301,52,61,79,155,295,573,1273,4013,13119
                    1947,431,3823,250,45,49,70,136,275,559,1259,3945,13010
                    1948,387,4078,244,40,42,55,122,234,467,1096,3450,11112
                    1949,300,2884,198,32,32,43,92,189,372,878,2629,8789
                    1950,313,2681,189,32,32,42,90,193,382,971,2965,9544
                    1951,314,2520,190,32,34,40,87,189,383,938,2995,9351
                    1952,297,2669,199,32,30,42,86,173,337,820,2666,8252
                    1953,330,2575,188,31,32,42,88,186,382,966,3107,10007
                    1954,254,2272,161,24,24,33,66,142,276,708,2206,7132
                    1955,271,2216,149,25,27,31,68,142,295,764,2498,7911
                    1956,282,2253,153,23,24,30,70,140,304,806,2580,8536
                    1957,358,2399,183,38,55,56,102,206,443,1069,2986,9798
                    1958,331,2453,160,23,29,43,78,173,389,960,2928,9881
                    1959,312,2392,153,25,27,38,77,155,335,865,2816,9243
                    1960,373,2390,162,26,30,48,93,196,432,1121,3406,11266
                    from heart-disease
                    1900,1374,1478,150,233,288,434,808,1730,4141,9573,17519,22498
                    1901,1400,1221,137,203,274,448,820,1754,4378,9666,18686,22286
                    1902,1454,1228,138,215,279,462,855,1811,4494,10137,19373,24616
                    1903,1518,1037,105,191,272,452,882,1850,4726,10803,21412,27057
                    1904,1637,1096,127,236,289,456,911,1950,5103,11795,22944,31770
                    1905,1619,1191,109,234,284,461,926,1950,5011,11399,22801,31841
                    1906,1542,997,108,214,276,450,907,1897,4944,11463,22440,32684
                    1907,1666,903,122,216,291,457,945,2093,5303,12361,25114,36823
                    1908,1520,922,118,218,258,405,881,1854,4758,11500,23284,34878
                    1909,1530,889,107,209,250,397,832,1818,4704,11551,23539,35170
                    1910,1589,992,128,223,267,408,857,1895,4807,11917,24816,38116
                    1911,1564,825,107,210,256,407,854,1885,4770,12026,24458,37779
                    1912,1587,744,99,187,256,401,882,1907,4783,12072,25244,37383
                    1913,1546,737,111,200,243,406,867,1843,4589,11607,24543,37929
                    1914,1582,602,98,215,250,396,889,1829,4627,12158,25075,39779
                    1915,1639,605,96,198,255,395,848,1847,4792,12587,26177,43442
                    1916,1672,556,102,190,253,426,883,1938,4920,12733,27344,44985
                    1917,1699,560,98,182,268,441,896,1954,4989,12795,27845,45421
                    1918,1716,553,103,193,350,558,963,1954,4896,12365,26110,42691
                    1919,1479,498,84,149,229,351,741,1650,4254,11139,25067,43235
                    1920,1596,520,97,174,245,375,731,1716,4520,12009,28574,52144
                    1921,1562,436,99,186,243,334,698,1741,4406,11667,27629,51728
                    1922,1650,456,95,160,234,338,747,1857,4695,12496,29255,57350
                    1923,1740,465,95,160,234,343,787,1983,4982,12730,30693,61036
                    1924,1757,431,88,168,246,352,815,2031,4869,12619,30790,60765
                    1925,1848,428,93,165,237,365,838,2091,5088,13198,32130,67457
                    1926,1986,398,87,148,237,365,865,2213,5399,14196,35081,72389
                    1927,1953,379,85,149,236,365,860,2181,5309,13902,33470,68250
                    1928,2077,349,81,136,222,385,917,2314,5606,14845,36120,72671
                    1929,2112,351,81,136,226,384,893,2325,5766,14956,35635,71059
                    1930,2142,331,69,121,213,382,894,2389,5986,14939,34767,66809
                    1931,2134,240,66,113,197,361,880,2368,5923,14585,34367,65546
                    1932,2241,175,59,102,184,349,872,2373,6093,15104,36512,71362
                    1933,2280,174,61,99,173,341,862,2447,6283,15230,36777,69269
                    1934,2403,165,54,93,171,344,906,2588,6480,15626,38254,72910
                    1935,2454,246,57,101,165,331,895,2548,6469,15706,38826,73992
                    1936,2666,259,50,102,166,334,945,2683,6848,16553,42552,81127
                    1937,2689,194,49,88,158,324,926,2720,6855,16432,41900,78940
                    1938,2697,203,44,88,155,306,918,2706,6711,16391,41051,76400
                    1939,2755,182,44,83,149,294,892,2682,6805,16382,41329,79457
                    1940,2925,175,36,80,140,297,917,2795,7135,17285,42337,83130
                    1941,4753,310,70,116,216,452,1429,4341,10917,27479,69493,143036
                    1942,4795,199,78,107,215,456,1433,4376,10937,27117,67371,140391
                    1943,5108,174,72,108,220,465,1444,4434,11292,28054,71549,152909
                    1944,5005,172,71,108,216,439,1386,4258,10851,26533,67435,141751
                    1945,5082,151,67,103,212,444,1375,4252,10801,25910,65491,141086
                    1946,4768,152,59,85,171,364,1254,4073,10431,24810,63222,142181
                    1947,4910,120,53,76,152,346,1238,4178,10675,25512,64757,147766
                    1948,4880,115,55,72,150,335,1238,4102,10449,25046,63489,146534
                    1949,5021,114,41,66,139,327,1225,4120,10698,25697,64374,145151
                    1950,5108,114,38,55,135,324,1224,4115,10683,26090,65229,146256
                    1951,5132,159,34,50,133,321,1217,4062,10545,25381,64698,143334
                    1952,5118,173,38,48,132,319,1200,4019,10460,24943,63484,139261
                    1953,5148,177,35,44,123,313,1171,3928,10293,24965,63305,140120
                    1954,4952,163,32,39,114,291,1073,3705,9700,23850,60362,134857
                    1955,5060,149,31,34,108,278,1057,3555,9583,24033,62192,142224
                    1956,5105,150,31,32,101,275,1030,3517,9647,24076,62002,144248
                    1957,5235,145,32,31,105,278,1035,3575,9831,24542,62198,148599
                    1958,5235,137,29,26,90,275,1024,3542,9630,24205,62437,149944
                    1959,5159,131,29,26,86,268,997,3461,9390,23587,60861,147369
                    1960,5218,122,25,27,84,258,1008,3449,9438,23737,61238,149451
                    from all causes
                    1900,172,1624,198,39,59,82,102,150,272,564,1233,2609
                    1901,164,1414,169,35,55,80,103,150,278,562,1246,2608
                    1902,155,1389,166,33,51,75,96,140,259,529,1141,2356
                    1903,156,1326,154,34,52,75,98,143,272,550,1208,2537
                    1904,164,1392,159,37,55,78,102,151,285,582,1261,2700
                    1905,159,1412,150,34,52,74,98,147,277,562,1224,2615
                    1906,157,1448,158,33,53,75,98,145,271,550,1204,2551
                    1907,159,1380,147,32,53,75,102,151,286,588,1287,2691
                    1908,147,1332,140,30,48,67,90,138,262,588,1195,2486
                    1909,142,1267,135,28,44,63,87,133,256,589,1184,2449
                    1910,147,1318,140,29,45,65,90,137,262,556,1222,2503
                    1911,139,1140,118,27,45,64,89,135,258,550,1201,2464
                    1912,136,1111,109,25,43,61,86,134,258,545,1202,2422
                    1913,138,1148,119,27,44,62,87,135,255,541,1179,2359
                    1914,133,1072,102,25,42,60,85,131,251,541,1156,2315
                    1915,132,1024,92,23,41,58,83,131,255,556,1201,2403
                    1916,138,1057,111,25,44,62,88,136,265,572,1239,2504
                    1917,140,1046,107,26,47,65,90,139,268,573,1239,2459
                    1918,181,1117,157,41,107,164,134,152,265,550,1130,2221
                    1919,129,910,93,27,53,75,86,123,231,500,1078,2222
                    1920,130,923,99,26,49,68,81,122,236,525,1189,2483
                    1921,115,806,80,25,39,49,68,112,221,490,1112,2391
                    1922,117,776,74,21,38,50,71,118,232,522,1175,2581
                    1923,121,811,81,21,39,50,73,122,239,533,1235,2797
                    1924,116,768,68,20,38,48,71,121,230,510,1172,2618
                    1925,117,754,64,20,38,48,72,122,233,517,1193,2723
                    1926,121,779,72,19,37,49,74,127,241,538,1254,2797
                    1927,113,688,59,19,35,47,71,120,229,512,1159,2501
                    1928,120,731,65,19,37,50,75,128,242,543,1252,2683
                    1929,119,716,63,19,36,50,73,127,245,540,1222,2543
                    1930,113,690,56,17,33,47,68,122,240,514,1127,2280
                    1931,111,644,53,17,32,45,67,120,236,499,1105,2228
                    1932,109,613,46,15,29,42,63,116,234,500,1143,2333
                    1933,107,613,47,15,27,41,62,114,232,490,1113,2223
                    1934,111,668,51,15,28,41,62,118,235,494,1141,2248
                    1935,109,609,44,15,27,40,62,116,232,487,1131,2246
                    1936,116,629,44,15,28,41,65,121,241,508,1217,2427
                    1937,113,613,42,14,26,39,62,118,235,490,1170,2272
                    1938,106,580,38,12,23,34,56,109,221,471,1109,2126
                    1939,106,537,32,11,21,32,53,107,221,472,1125,2233
                    1940,108,549,29,10,20,31,52,106,223,480,1126,2289
                    1941,105,526,28,10,20,29,50,103,213,462,1058,2187
                    1942,103,488,24,9,19,28,48,101,210,449,1016,2111
                    1943,109,440,27,10,21,27,48,102,215,462,1075,2303
                    1944,106,442,23,09,20,27,46,97,208,439,1017,2153
                    1945,106,425,20,9,19,27,46,96,205,426,984,2096
                    1946,100,463,18,8,17,23,42,92,198,412,951,2106
                    1947,101,345,16,7,15,21,41,92,201,421,970,2169
                    1948,99,357,16,7,14,20,39,90,197,414,951,2132
                    1949,97,352,15,7,13,18,37,87,193,408,930,2032
                    1950,96,330,14,6,13,18,36,85,190,410,933,2020
                    1951,97,323,14,6,13,18,35,85,188,401,924,1976
                    1952,96,321,14,6,13,17,34,83,186,394,905,1906
                    1953,96,308,13,5,12,16,33,82,184,394,906,1919
                    1954,92,293,12,5,11,15,31,78,174,379,860,1816
                    1955,93,285,11,5,12,15,31,76,173,381,879,1898
                    1956,94,282,11,5,12,15,30,75,174,381,879,1923
                    1957,96,280,11,5,12,15,31,76,178,390,881,1979
                    1958,95,281,11,5,11,15,30,75,174,384,879,1980
                    1959,94,275,11,5,11,15,29,74,171,376,858,1942
                    1960,95,270,11,5,11,15,30,76,174,382,875,1986
                    
                    
                    
                    from CDC , 1900-40.pdf  , page 258=253, table 14
                    
                      CDC , 1940-60.pdf page 447
                    
                    table 63,p374:35 causes,age,color,sex
                    all causes, p380=374,1076.4-->954.7
                    tuberculosis, p385, 45.0-->6.1
                    syphilis,394,14.4-->1.6
                    cancer,399,120.3-->149.2
                    diabetes,442=336,26.7-->16.7
                    cvr,447,485.7-->521.8
                    vasc.lesions,451,90.9-->108.0
                    arterioscl,-->275.0
                    hypertensive-->44.0
                    nephritis,p480,79.0-->6.7
                    p+i,p484,70.3-->37.3
                    infancy,p520,-->37.4
                    
                    total : p43,p318
                    from 1900-40.pdf , page 258=253, table 14
                    table 7,page , table 6, page 169
                    typed into computer by hand
                    Attached Files
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: mortality statistics

                      the magnitude of this decrease is really surprising to me

                      http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23637964
                      Following smoking ban implementation in Ireland March,2004, an immediate
                      13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99),
                      26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88),
                      32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.85),
                      38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.83)
                      mortality was observed.

                      ------------------------------------------------------------

                      I don't quite see this. There was a steady decline in 2000-2005, since 2006 it goes up again.
                      But nothing like 13% in any year

                      HMD gives Irish deaths as

                      2000 31391
                      2001 30212
                      2002 29683
                      2003 29074
                      2004 28665
                      2005 27441
                      2006 28488
                      2007 28117
                      2008 28192
                      2009 28898

                      2008:
                      28380
                      27961
                      28995

                      also: http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birt...sandmarriages/
                      Attached Files
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: mortality statistics

                        Euro-deaths 1960-2011
                        16 countries with available monthly data since 1960
                        (plus 2 small omitted countries)

                        missing years are estimated from neighbors-data (i.e. France~NL+B+CH)

                        normed to season 2010-2011 = 1

                        you can see the larger amount of seasonality in Southern Countries


                        you can also see how the upward-trend since 1960 was stopped ~1974
                        in middle-Europe, although it is less pronounced than in USA 1974-1976
                        (look at the yearly minima in chart #17)

                        ---------------------------------------
                        mortalitylinks
                        UNO: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph...s/dyb/dyb2.htm
                        http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph.../HistTab10.csv
                        since 1948, all causes , x countries
                        WHO: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/morttables/en/index.html
                        http://apps.who.int/healthinfo/stati...ality/whodpms/
                        (tables by cause,7 agegroups,selected countries, since 1979)
                        WHO Mortality Database Updated as of March 2012 ----edit-----Updated as of July 2014--------
                        WHO-Europe causes of death with subnational regions, since 1980 ---updated April 2014 ---:
                        http://data.euro.who.int/hfamdb/
                        HMD: http://www.mortality.org/
                        CDC: http://www.nber.org/data/multicause.html
                        http://www.uni-ulm.de/mawi/mawi-mort
                        Japan: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/02.htm
                        eurostat: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/...cd_anr&lang=en
                        yearly,1994-2010,37 countries,87 causes,3 sexes,22 agegroups = 3611718 numbers
                        download as zips, only 10 causes at once, else there are problems
                        18MB zipped in total, takes a while to create the data ~1 hour to download the whole database (1994-2010)
                        eurostat: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/...mmonth&lang=en
                        deaths by month
                        62 countries,1960-2013,14 months=46872 numbers ---udate 2014/02/14---
                        Canada: http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8177
                        Massachusetts: https://archive.org/details/annualreportvita1933mass
                        France:http://www.ined.fr/1999
                        Belgium:
                        USA: http://www.nber.org/data/multicause.html

                        IPUMS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integra...crodata_Series

                        freeBMD: http://www.freebmd.org.uk/cgi/EntryCounts.pl
                        England+Wales, 1838-1966, quarterly, for genealogy,not statistics, restricted search
                        they have name,age,district - not cause of death , no stat-counts
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------
                        France 1906, monthly , >80 regions
                        http://translate.google.de/translate...76%26bih%3D539
                        -------------------------------------------------------------------
                        USA, public health reports weekly since 1896
                        weekly deaths in ~100 cities worldwide , total+11 infectious diseases (until 1912)
                        weekly temperature and rainfall in ~100 US-cities
                        http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/?ter...eports%22+1900
                        starts 1896 all the weeks at pubmed
                        ------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Donaldson
                        and Keatinge [77], for example, obtained the daily population in their study
                        of winter excess mortality in southeast England “by linear interextrapolation
                        from the 1981 and 1991 censuses”
                        ----------------------------------
                        Aus Oberösterreich wurden tägliche Sterbefälle für die Jahre 1990 bis 2004 zur Ver-
                        fügung gestellt, wobei neben Alter, Geschlecht und Haupttodesursache auch der
                        Wohnbezirk bekannt ist.
                        --------------------------------------
                        Canada 1921-1970: http://qspace.library.queensu.ca/jspui/handle/1974/8177
                        cansim: since 1991 : http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a33...ables&lang=eng
                        since 1946 only per quartal and province
                        ---------------------------------------------
                        wonder: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html
                        --------------------------------------------------------
                        Anuario estadístico de México Mexico, statistical yearbook
                        ---------------------------------------------------
                        PAHO: http://ais.paho.org/dwld/mort/VENEZUELA2004.csv
                        http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?opt...56&Itemid=2392
                        =----------------------------------------------------
                        Australia , AIHW , ABS , 150 EXCEL , GRIM Books >1906
                        -----------------------------------------------------------
                        England 1848-1900
                        http://www.geog.cam.ac.uk/research/p...undeathcauses/
                        by cause, sex and age for England & Wales 1848-1900 SN5705
                        -------------------------------------------------------------
                        France: 1946- http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home...3_1946_num_1_1
                        =================================================
                        http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/about/factbook-11/chapter4.htm
                        http://www.bmj.com/content/323/7312/541
                        http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4843a2.htm
                        ================================================== =============
                        University of Minnesota links:
                        https://www.lib.umn.edu/libdata/page...l?page_id=2031
                        ================================================== ========
                        OECD: http://www.oecd.org/els/health-syste...lance-2013.pdf
                        http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?Dat...e=HEALTH_STAT#
                        34 OECD-countries, yearly since 1960, ~50 causes, years of life lost, health-status
                        ================================================== ========
                        data.worldbank.org/
                        ==================================
                        Attached Files
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: mortality statistics

                          smoking
                          ======

                          Denmark
                          ----------


                          Life expectancy and mortality in Denmark compared to Sweden. What is the effect
                          of smoking and alcohol?]. [Article in Danish]
                          Juel K.Source Syddansk Universitet, Statens Institut for Folkesundhed.
                          kj@si-folkesundhed.dk
                          Abstract
                          INTRODUCTION:
                          For many years life expectancy in Denmark has improved less than in other comparable
                          western countries, e.g. Sweden. An unhealthy life style, in particular the consumption
                          of alcohol and tobacco, has often been mentioned as a possible explanation.
                          MATERIALS AND METHODS:
                          Life expectancy and mortality in Denmark and Sweden has been compared by means
                          of nationwide cause of death registries. Alcohol- and tobacco-related deaths are defined
                          from death certificate diagnoses. The comparisons between the two countries are made
                          by age standardised mortality rates and life expectancies for the period 1997-2001.
                          RESULTS:
                          50 years ago Denmark had one of the highest life expectancies in the world, but is now at
                          the bottom of the list when compared to similar countries. Life expectancy in Sweden is
                          now almost three years longer than in Denmark. Before the age of 75 there were a total
                          of 3700 premature deaths among Danish men and 3400 among Danish women. Relative
                          excess mortality was highest among Danish men aged 35-64 with a relative excess mortality
                          at 40-50%. Among women excess mortality was 50-60% in the age group 35-74 years.
                          Overall, alcohol and smoking account for almost the entire difference between Danish and
                          Swedish men and for 75% of the difference between Danish and Swedish women.
                          CONCLUSION:
                          A very substantial part of the Danish excess mortality and low life expectancy compared
                          to Sweden can be attributed to high mortality related to alcohol and tobacco consumption.
                          A reduction of this difference in life expectancy does not seem realistic without a reduction
                          in the consumption of tobacco and alcohol.
                          PMID: 18761821 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          CONCLUSION: The results indicate a high smoking prevalence to be the main explanation
                          behind the relatively low life expectancy of Danish women born 1915-45.
                          -------------------------------------------------------------------
                          CONCLUSIONS: The currently low life expectancy of Danish women compared with that of
                          women in Norway and Sweden is partly a transitional phenomenon caused by excessive
                          death rates for women born between the two World Wars. Data on smoking prevalence
                          by birth cohort and age indicate that a high percentage of Danish women in these cohorts
                          were smokers throughout their adult life.
                          ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                          The excess mortality of women in Denmark is linked to lifestyle factors:
                          tobacco smoking, alcohol and drug consumption
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          RESULTS: In the period, 1993-1997, 30% of all deaths in men and 20% in women were
                          related to tobacco, alcohol, or drugs. The percentages of all deaths for tobacco, alcohol,
                          and drugs were respectively 22.8%, 6.3%, and 1.2% for men and 16.5%, 2.5%, and 0.7%
                          for women. Every year 12,000 Danes die 11-13 years prematurely, because of tobacco,
                          more than 2500 die more than 20 years prematurely, because of alcohol, and about 600
                          die almost 30 years prematurely, because of drugs. The standardised lifetime risk of death
                          from one of these three causes was about 30% for men, highest in the middle five-year period.
                          For women--because of substantially increased mortality attributable to smoking--there
                          was a large increase from 8% to 20%. In the municipality of Copenhagen, the lifetime risk
                          for men was about 50%, for women it increased from 15% in the middle of the 1970s to
                          more than 30% in the middle of the 1990s. For both men and women, mortality in the age
                          group 35-74 declined sharply, when mortality related to the three causes was excluded.
                          However, the heavy increase in smoking-related deaths in women means that the total
                          mortality over the entire period has been almost constant.
                          ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServl...4742&langId=en


                          Denmark and Germany,

                          per capita cigarette consumption
                          1970: 1937 , 2333
                          1980: 1972 , 2423
                          1990: 1860 , 2234
                          2000: 1856 , 1843

                          annual smoking deaths 35-69 years
                          1955:1400 , 35900
                          1965:3200 , 62500
                          1975:4000 , 56800
                          1985:5100 , 50100
                          1995:4900 , 58100

                          Sale of tobacco in Denmark” from Statistics
                          Denmark, but these figures did not include the sale of all tobacco, which explains why
                          those figures were smaller.
                          The new figures are based on figures from The Danish Tax-authorities on the amount
                          of paid taxes from the sale of tobacco.
                          Further information: http://www.statistikbanken.dk and http://www.sst.dk/English.aspx.
                          --------------------------------------------------------
                          Source: Federal Statistical Office, Statistics on consumption of tobacco products;
                          Statistisches Bundesamt, Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.1.1, table 1.3.
                          Methodology: Consumption of tobacco in grams per capita recalculated on the basis
                          of 1 gram per cigarette and 2 grams per cigar/cigarillo. Consumption of pipe and fine
                          cut tobacco is also included.
                          Break in time series: Until 1990, Federal Republic of Germany; from 1991, Germany
                          after reunification. Further information: http://www.destatis.de.
                          ------------------------------------------------------
                          U.S. Department of Agriculture/Economic Research Service. Tobacco Situation
                          and Outlook Report, various issues. U.S. Department of Agriculture: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/tobacco/tables.htm.
                          Coverage: US per capita estimates are based on population 18 years of age and over.

                          http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...5644a2.htm#fig
                          --------------------------------------------------------------

                          Percentage of 15-year-olds who smoke at least once a week,
                          1993f,girls 1997f ,girls 2001f ,girls 1993f ,boys 1997f ,boys 2001f,boys
                          Denmark 24 28 21 14 20 17
                          Germany 29 33 34 21 28 32

                          Raucherquote 2009

                          Griechenland 42%
                          Bulgarien 39%
                          Ungarn 38%
                          Lettland 36%
                          Spanien 35%
                          Österreich 34%
                          Frankreich 33%
                          Polen 33%
                          Irland 31%
                          Belgien 30%
                          Dänemark 29%
                          EU27 29%
                          Großbritannien 28%
                          Italien 26%
                          Luxemburg 25%
                          Deutschland 25%
                          Niederlande 24%
                          Portugal 23%
                          Finnland 21%
                          Schweden 16%


                          http://archive.tobacco.org/resources...torynotes.html
                          Public Health Cigarette Smoking Act of 1969
                          signed into law by Richard Nixon on April 1, 1970
                          Congress enacts the Little Cigar Act of 1973
                          --------------------------------------------------------------------
                          (sorry, the attached chart comparing German and Danish life expectancy since 1960
                          was wrong. Accidentally German females were compared with Danish males.
                          Deleted now, (2 views))
                          ----------------------------------------------
                          Belgium
                          -------
                          An immediate decrease in AMI mortality rates was observed in January 2006 (smoking ban at work).
                          The effect was highest for women younger than 60 years of age (-33.8%; 95% CI -49.6 to -13.0),
                          compared with an effect of -13.1% (95% CI -24.3 to -0.3) for male counterparts. Estimates for the
                          elderly (≥60 years) were -9.0% (95% CI -14.1 to -3.7) for men and 7.9% (95% CI -13.5 to -2.0) for
                          women. An additional effect of the smoking ban in restaurants was observed for elderly men, with an
                          annual slope change of -3.8% (95% CI -6.5 to -1.0) after 1 January 2007.
                          Attached Files
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: mortality statistics

                            see, how ischemic heart disease (the most common cause of death)
                            became much less seasonal since ~2005 and never was much
                            seasonal (winter_deaths/summer_deaths) in the 20-50y group !


                            same also in deaths from
                            other bacterial
                            HIV
                            malnutrition
                            CNS-inflammation
                            other heart
                            cerebrovascular
                            arteries,arterioles,capillaries
                            other digestive
                            inflammatory polyarthropathies
                            arthrosis
                            bone structure
                            other urinary

                            but the reverse (increase of seasonality) in
                            intestinal infectious
                            obesity
                            organic mental
                            glomerular disease (most increasing disease since 2006)


                            --------------------------------------------
                            hattip mixin:

                            In 2004 the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) revised its guidelines
                            to recommend statin drugs as a primary prevention and the US market nearly tripled.
                            In that same year the cholesterol lowering drug known as Lipitor (manufactured by Pfizer)
                            became the best selling drug in American history. Pfizer reported 2004 Lipitor sales
                            of 12.5 billion dollars.

                            -------------------------------------
                            2013.07.13 , file diseas7.txt was replaced by file disea78.txt
                            and will be deleted soon
                            2013.07.13 , picture icd10-m.gif was added, same as icd10-8.gif
                            but only for the agegroup of 20-49 year olds


                            =============================================
                            we should make lists with flu-scores and winter-scores of the diseases,
                            showing the doctors how sensitive death from that disease is to winter or H3N2-waves
                            ==============================================
                            Attached Files
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: mortality statistics

                              examining the age-structure of deaths in 1918 ...

                              here is a paper suggesting Mexico was different
                              Mortality Patterns Associated with the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Mexico:
                              Evidence
                              for a Spring Herald Wave and Lack of Preexisting Immunity in Older
                              Populations

                              http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/202/4/567.full


                              from Indian Censuses I get India populations by 5y-age groups in thousands:

                              Code:
                              1901,38004,40726,34447,24960,24592,26008,24921,17117,19070,10412,13041,5074,8070e,2280e,4611e
                              1911,41311,43245,33863,26181,27342,28219,25998,18431,19767,11241,13676,5322,8761,2475,5005
                              1921,39656,46747,36742,26145,26066,27600,26138,18969,19582,11644,13741,5574,8863,2519,5343
                              for an estimated deaths in thousands in 1918 of

                              12-17:1317
                              17-22:4334
                              22-27:3018
                              27-32:984
                              32-37:877
                              37-42:907
                              42-47:492
                              47-52:601
                              52-57:8
                              57-62:648
                              62-67:168
                              >67:90

                              keywords:
                              33,863,282
                              26,181,473
                              census of India 1901 1911 1921
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: mortality statistics

                                deaths in USA from the 2009 pandemic

                                Code:
                                
                                ICD10-letter
                                ratio*1000
                                deaths Oct+Nov 2009
                                average deaths Oct+Nov 2006-2010
                                --------------------------------------------------------------
                                O 1359     174     128  +  46   maternal
                                J 1118   40521   36229  +4292   respiratory
                                F 1074   18196   16935  +1261   mental
                                A 1064    7920    7441  + 479   infection
                                        
                                I  979  128335  130992  -2657   cardiovascular
                                C 1010   96022   94984  +1038   cancer
                                
                                V  859    6407    7454  -1047   motor accident
                                B  956    3362    3516  - 154
                                P  940    2125    2258  - 133
                                Q  928    1582    1704  - 122
                                
                                G 1022   22823   22310  + 513
                                E 1015   16481   16234  + 247
                                K 1011   14995   14830  + 165
                                X 1007   15001   14889  + 112
                                N 1013   10660   10522  + 138
                                
                                R 1041    6286    6037  + 249
                                W 1011    5948    5883  +  65
                                D 1000    4011    4011  +   0
                                H  811      14      17  -   3
                                L 1010     652     645  +   7
                                M 1012    2260    2233  +  27
                                Y  976    2045    2093  -  48
                                
                                ----------------------------------
                                
                                4475 additional deaths in USA in Oct+Nov 2009

                                Code:
                                US deaths in Oct+Nov , 2009 compared with other years
                                
                                ratio 2009/average
                                sex
                                age-group
                                ICD10
                                deaths in 2009
                                ----------------------------------------
                                 1462  1  6 J1 418 
                                 1267  0  6 J1 498 
                                 1267  0  5 J4 805 
                                 1233  1  5 J4 756 
                                 1198  1  8 J9 366 
                                 1154  1  6 J4 1847 
                                 1141  0  7 J1 891 
                                 1134  1  7 J1 728     respiratory
                                 1124  0  6 J4 1935 
                                 1121  0  8 J8 572 
                                 1096  0  9 J4 883 
                                 1084  0  6 J8 300 
                                 1059  1  7 J4 3242 
                                 1058  1  9 J4 1415 
                                 1053  1  8 J4 4062 
                                 1048  0  8 J4 3547 
                                
                                 1203  0  9 F0 1475 
                                 1111  1  8 F0 5192 
                                 1081  1  9 F0 4728 
                                 1082  0  8 F0 2652     dementia
                                 1068  0  7 F0 892 
                                 1064  1  7 F0 1107 
                                
                                 1223  0  5 C4 367 
                                 1122  1  8 C7 494 
                                 1116  0  8 C4 528 
                                 1100  0  6 C7 643 
                                 1084  0  5 C8 572 
                                 1082  1  6 C6 285 
                                 1080  1  6 C1 974 
                                 1069  0  5 C2 1294     cancer
                                 1067  0  6 C2 1659 
                                 1066  1  6 C8 718 
                                 1065  1  6 C2 1033 
                                 1061  0  6 C8 961 
                                 1057  0  5 C9 372 
                                 1056  1  8 C9 886 
                                 1050  1  9 C3 493 
                                 1048  0  6 C9 740 
                                 1045  1  6 C7 422 
                                 1044  1  9 C2 407 
                                 1044  1  3 C5 280 
                                 1044  0  6 C1 1870 
                                 1042  0  9 C1 321 
                                 1039  0  4 C2 332 
                                 1038  1  5 C2 619 
                                 1037  1  7 C2 1388 
                                 1035  0  8 C2 1158 
                                 1033  1  9 C5 739 
                                
                                 1162  1  6 I1 561 
                                 1157  0  6 I1 888    hypertensive
                                 1102  0  4 I1 414 
                                 1098  1  5 I1 419 
                                 1074  1  7 I1 889 
                                 1052  0  9 I1 512 
                                 1048  0  5 I1 800 
                                 1035  0  7 I1 809 
                                 1142  0  6 I4 974 
                                 1085  0  5 I4 712 
                                 1068  1  7 I4 984 
                                 1045  1  6 I4 508 
                                 1041  1  9 I4 1382 
                                 1075  1  7 I3 346 
                                 1045  0  7 I3 312 
                                 1073  0  6 I5 575 
                                 1073  0  5 I5 358 
                                 1055  0  9 I6 1117 
                                 1042  0  9 I5 944 
                                 1041  1  4 I6 310 
                                 1034  0  6 I6 1267 
                                
                                 1258  1  8 A0 412   intestine
                                 1142  1  5 A4 305 
                                 1117  0  6 A4 521 
                                 1107  0  5 A4 362   bacterial
                                 1033  0  7 A4 699
                                 
                                 1214  0  4 E1 426 
                                 1139  1  8 E7 307 
                                 1101  0  6 E1 1406  diabetes
                                 1061  0  9 E1 339 
                                 1032  1  5 E1 577 
                                
                                 1074  1  6 K7 537 
                                 1077  1  5 K7 662 
                                 1144  0  6 K7 1130   liver
                                 1064  0  5 K7 1575 
                                 1057  0  4 K7 778 
                                
                                 1180  0  5 N1 362 
                                 1104  1  6 N1 497 
                                 1090  0  6 N1 556   kidney
                                 1063  0  9 N1 459 
                                 1057  0  7 N1 935 
                                
                                 1213  1  5 X4 510 
                                 1185  0  5 X4 764   poisening
                                 1070  1  4 X4 599 
                                 1062  0  3 X4 747 
                                 1122  0  6 X7 444   suicide
                                 1073  0  5 X7 738 
                                 1059  0  7 X7 316 
                                
                                 1178  1  8 R6 408 
                                 1100  1  9 R6 419 
                                 1069  1  9 R5 472 
                                 1067  1  8 R5 358    general
                                
                                 1140  1  9 W1 530 
                                 1060  0  7 W1 401 
                                 1057  0  8 W1 676    fall
                                 1087  0  9 G3 1067 
                                 1060  0  8 G3 2363   Alzheimer
                                 1050  0  8 D4 388 
                                 1076  0  0 P2 316 
                                 1036  0  8 K5 431 
                                 1030  0  8 G2 1101 
                                
                                
                                 973  0  8 I2 10551 
                                 953  1  9 I2 7852 
                                 949  0  7 I2 7873 
                                 909  1  8 I2 10922 
                                 901  1  7 I2 5152    ischemic heart disease
                                 928  1  9 I6 3124 
                                 920  1  9 I5 2083 
                                 889  1  8 I7 839 
                                 883  1  7 I7 420 
                                 862  1  9 I7 555     arteries
                                 882  1  8 K5 736 
                                 858  0  4 B2 382 
                                 844  1  0 P0 494 
                                 840  0  4 I6 298 
                                 834  0  2 V8 429 
                                 831  0  2 V4 281 
                                 822  1  7 N3 211 
                                 820  1  8 N3 501    urinary
                                 807  0  8 N3 272 
                                 680  0  4 F1 187
                                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                                my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X