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WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Cytokines disregulation may account for most of severe flu pneumonitis but not all.

I don't think that if an individual is malnourished is a less risk for severe pandemic flu outcome.

MMWR reported the case of a leukemia patient with needed oseltamivir treatment with double dosage; despite this, the patient didn't improve.

Furthermore, during 1918 a lot of Europeans were malnourished - due to WWI and other social unrests, revolutions etc - and despite this, the death toll was very high.

During the 'Nona' pandemic in Norther Italy (1889/90) malaria was widespread, people was severely undernourished and without potable water and sanitation. The toll was very high.

Viruses alone make damages, hosts conditions also.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

3% seems pretty high to me. And weather it is "all" or not...it's all we have to work with. So it is what it is.

From Post #1 of this thread. Quotes from the World Health Organization:

"During the winter season in the southern hemisphere, several countries have viewed the need for intensive care as the greatest burden on health services," it said.

"Preparedness measures need to anticipate this increased demand on intensive care units, which could be overwhelmed by a sudden surge in the number of severe cases."

"Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections,"

"In some studies, the risk in these groups is four to five times higher than in the general population,"

"Data continue to show that certain medical conditions increase the risk of severe and fatal illness. These include respiratory disease, notably asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and immunosuppression,"
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

#63: " Cytokines disregulation may account for most of severe flu pneumonitis but not all."


Yes indeed.

But if a weak immune system with a weak reaction to the virus, have an reaction enaugh big to start that kind of cytokine death,
than the supposed reason of young, strong, humans dying of cytokine reaction because of their strong immune response, must have a diference.

If it is founded to be the same for both, than maybe the diference is the timeline: the strong deteriorates rapidly, the weak after several days.

I agree that for many illnesses, slums conditions, no sanitations and weakened people, represent a reason for many illnesses upsurge.

In any case the next period will not be a peace of cake.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

The urgency of WHO message is clearly directed toward the limitations exist in health care infrastructures.

There are not ICUs beds for all those need treatment.

We don't know the reason behind a severe case and a mild, self-limiting one from the same virus strain.

This is another limit of our science.

The pathogenesis of influenza is not fully understood despite the huge fundings received by some rock-star-like-year-income flu researchers.

It is uninimaginable that nations account for half of world's population (China, India) will not suffer for severe damages by a pandemic, mild, moderate or severe.

Only taking into account the disruption of health care services for patients with cancers, infectious diseases such as malaria, tubercolosis, diarrhea, polio, diphteria, tetanus, rabies, and all other neglected tropical diseases sometimes endemic in regions of these two nations, the excess mortality will be noticeable and perhaps higher than expected.

I want to make clear a thing: the host (all of us) are important as the pathogen and perhaps living conditions put at serious risks those remained behind.

What is really happening in Brazilean slums, or Argentina lost children I can not say.

This flu causes - even in the self-limiting cases - dehidration: so lack of potable water - as in most of Andean regions - is an additional complication for these population.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

that link you provided ironorehopper, i tried to read it but it says i have insuffiecent privleges......:confused:
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

I reproduce here the article about social inequalities in Argentina; one of the worst effect of the great economic recession experienced by this nation in 2003 (in effect, there was a default), is the phenomenon of coca-children, among the poorest of these young boys, some are employed in illicit drugs manufacturing and packaging.

The article was published by Italian daily newspaper ''il Manifesto'', written by Filippo Fiorini from Buenos Aires; printed edition of August 22, 2009, page 9; available in Italian at: http://www.ilmanifesto.it/il-manifesto/argomenti/numero/20090822/pagina/09/pezzo/257977/

The article is here presented in a machine translation and in the original Italian format.

I hope readers will be able to better understand the hard conditions of a increasing number of people in Argentina, even in the perspective of the pandemic influenza.
-
-----

Filippo Fiorini - BUENOS AIRES

Coca for those who can, Paco for children

Paco Children Argentina: booming drug trade. Italia That comes up in Italy

The rhythm of cumbia pat the corridors of the slum with poetry, singing the exploits of thieves sanctified by the people.

Three boys sitting waiting on the mud, playing with a pair of 'fake' Adidas wishing to barter with a little 'of drugs, once it was cooked.

Then a roar uncover the shack next door.

The house lights is broken out cocaine factory.

Daily stories here in Buenos Aires, where Colombians and Mexicans have moved the refining of coca and then export it to Europe along with the Camorra.

In Argentina the clans for exploiting poor laborers, make a revolver with the competition, join the police are flooding the market and toxic waste production, which are reducing 70,000 healthy infants in paraplegics.

The UN estimates that Argentina is the second Latin American market for cocaine and derivatives traded, which means prices are among the cheapest in the world.

According to unofficial data deemed reliable, Argentina in poverty exceeds 30%, although according to official statistics is 15.3%.

The governor of the province of Buenos Aires, the Peronist pragmatic Daniel Scioli, says that compared to 2002, the year of the collapse of the economy, "poverty has declined.

Scioli, an ally of the government of Cristina Kirchner, responsible since 2007, when he was elected, 12% of the electorate and 40% of national GDP, defended the plans against poverty, "it takes time, we invested a lot, we are working 'says the man who could become the next presidential candidate of Peronism.

Meanwhile, begins to talk about lowering the age attributable to 14 years.

Authoritarian reaction to the continuous crimes increasingly younger, hungry and suffer withdrawal symptoms which impress for ruthlessness.

NGOs in the territory should be sore, why do not want to hear about unnecessary prisons for addicted children, while the narcos stand out unpunished.

The situation is very serious for those who live in daily contact.

Relief organizations, gathered under the umbrella of the metalworkers union CTA have reported 11 kidnappings lightning or intimidation in the last three weeks.

Actions orchestrated by someone who feels injured by their campaign, "Hunger is a crime."

Local news agencies, meanwhile, continue to beat news "kitchen" of coca burned, or when the police raided.

Inside, the paramedics and ambulance staff there are kids between ten and twenty, very poor, who were recruited by the narco-traffickers to the laborers of coca, a working class covert, capable of only one choice: smoking.

Thus, adolescent and pre-adolescents and missed the basic chemical experts become directly Grub Street, who stoned manipulate reagents such as acetone or ether, always on the boundary between the detonation and the transformation of basic cocaine paste, processed crude plant in hydrochloride of cocaine.

From this process, remains a large quantity of surplus poisonous and powerful, the perfect drug for the market low cost.

The laborers of narco-trafficking with a social profile identical to those from 2002 arriving at reception centers and clinics for recovery, "Children of 5 or 6 years destroyed by Paco, with severe malnutrition, impaired motor and lacerations of the lung are capable to make a lethal bronchitis, "says Gladys Madedu from 86 working with drug addicts now doting mother of Palomar, a house of Lomas de Zamora, a suburb south of Buenos Aires, with the affection which rehabilitated more than 300 children over the last years, and currently it houses a forty.

The presence of refineries in the country is a clear signal of change in Latin American narco-trafficking, "Since when Argentina were restricted exports of precursor chemicals bound for countries producers of coca (Colombia, Peru and Bolivia), the drug traffickers have moved here refining, "says Carlos Izaguirre, right-wing law-abiding man, a former narcotics officer, now head of Counter-Narcotics in Argentina.

The mob had brought with her from Colombia but also the marketing strategies: how the basuco, paco has arrived here on stage and not cost anything, I was offered along with coca.

One gram of "goods" (cocaine) to 25 pesos (roughly 5 million) and a dose of paco at 1 peso (20 cents), "explains Andrew, a toxic ex-girlfriend who has noticed that he spent the sign when the call to go and take his daughter from the judge: "I had abandoned school for a week and I thought it was after only 4 hours."

A story can be told through the "Mothers Against Paco, an initiative of the mothers in the neighborhood of Boca, which is seen stealing the taps at home by the children to exchange them with drug dealers, and have decided to get together, and today to be organic association, with many other groups of mothers located in different parts of the capital.

The right-wing mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, admits that "unfortunately, the narco-trafficking has increased greatly in recent times."

Mauricio is the eldest son of powerful businessmen, blue-eyed Italian-Argentine family wealth during the last military dictatorship ('76-'82) and corrupt Menem era.

The scion, who was president of a Boca Juniors winner, is now head of the Pro, the party that he founded and which has come nell'austero town office which exposes only the photo of his grandfather in Calabria (the 'any' George Macri).

Nearing the end of the mandate with a little thought to the presidency, Macri complain that the government of Cristina, the work on the other side of Plaza de Mayo, "there is nothing concrete promises on social and not give money."

He answers "concrete" says he's at least two dates: the first is the 'Plan of urbanization, "which includes" actions in the settlements by building sewers, schools, clinics, recording the identity. "

The second move Macri was the establishment of a new police force, which has made such a leader Jorge Palacios, said Fino, what has sparked the indignation of the leftist movements and also a part of the Jewish community for some aspects of its past, not quite clear.

Fino Palacios is added, with its grim look at a city and federal security apparatus already quite active in the cruel evictions of the poor.

But the misery villas' and their uncontaminated thousands of residents
remain in their place.

"In the area of Avellaneda, south of the capital, dealing with abandoned factories," says Laura Taffetani from the vantage point of his life spent in the "militancy" against poverty in the association "Not one child less."

Inside a shipwreck on the shoals of domestic industry deadlocked for decades of LiberoMercato may get to live "2000-2500 families," packed in like chickens, "most unemployed for two or three generations, whose children are mostly consumers of paco.

The shooting was continuous and did stir the murder of three Colombian ex-paramilitary AUC, the infamous United Self Defense Forces of Colombia.

The presence in Argentina of parasites and evidence of the expansion of their power.

Paul Starc, the Ministry of Security of the Province of Buenos Aires, is investigating a war between Mexican and Colombian gangs for control of narco-trafficking.

A situation that confirms the voices of the street, adding to the lot even the police, which "more than to receive bribes, collecting taxes from the real drug dealers and arrest only those who have stopped paying."

Izaguirre cites figures that speak of 1,500 clandestine airstrips in the lowland and little control of the north argentinoe in, landing dozens of Cessna airplanes per day, with loads of 5 tons of pasta based on the average.

A joint-venture narcos-police who, after processing, comes to customs and opens to the Camorra and who knows how many other mafias.

Nobody really knows how many tons of coca leave Argentina.

It seems that most ships in port is secondary: "The port of Buenos Aires has a scanner donated by the Goddess U.S. ports in the remaining 7 controls are almost nil," Izaguirre said.

Then loads disappear Atlantic reappearing in the hands of Argentines and Italians on board small vessels approaching the coast of the peninsula.

(...)
-
------
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Thank you Ironore.

#69:...

From the news text:
"Children of 5 or 6 years destroyed by Paco, with severe malnutrition, impaired motoric and lacerations of the lung capable to make lethal a bronchitis, "says Gladys Madedu ..."



It seems that many slums severe cases worldwide will be stamped as "other underlying illness", or even non reported, so the overall data will be heavily biased.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

I am getting Impatient that Keiiji Fukuda do not speak on his environmental Mission.

I Deeply respect Dr Keijii Fukuda nonetheless I am progressively getting mad.

Snowy Owl
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

No cases of new flu strain in Malaysia




PETALING JAYA: No cases of the new severe strain of the Influenza A(H1N1) have been reported in the country but the Health Ministry is taking no chances.
Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the ministry and Medical Research Institute (IMR) were monitoring the situation closely after the World Health Organisation (WHO) confirmed the new form of the virus.
?Until now, what we have is still (the original strain of) H1N1,? he said.
The WHO reported that the new form of the virus went straight to the lungs and caused more severe illness, even in healthy people.
Liow said his ministry was expecting a detailed report from WHO describing the new form of the A(H1N1) as well as samples for the ministry?s task force to test and track with.
?Our special task force will be monitoring this closely and getting regular reports from WHO,? he told The Star yesterday.
He said the report of a stronger form of the pandemic virus was of some concern as it came on the heels of WHO?s warning that the winter season in many countries was likely to usher in a second wave of infections that was expected to have greater impact than the first which started in May.
?That?s why WHO warned us on the second wave. It is more deadly if the new form can directly attack the lungs.
?We will have to give early warnings and alert people on the new characteristics of the virus. Treatment must be strengthened,? he added.
Meanwhile, a 49-year-old unemployed man who died of severe pneumonia in the Malacca Hospital became the latest victim of the influenza A(H1N1), bringing the total number of deaths due to the flu in the country to 72.
The man was admitted to the hospital on Aug 13 with fever, coughs and vomiting and was immediately given anti-viral drugs and antibiotics but his condition continued to worsen despite being tested negative for tuberculosis, typhoid, dengue and leptospira infection and died on Aug 19.
Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Ismail Meerican, in a statement, said post-mortem biopsy report, based on lung samples, tested positive for influenza A (H1N1) on Aug 24.This is the first reported death since last Wednesday when a 24-year-old woman, who died on Aug 19, was confirmed to be the 71st victim by the Health Ministry mortality review committee.
Meanwhile, as of 9am yesterday, 202 new patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) have been admitted to hospitals for treatment, while 285 had been discharged, said Dr Ismail.
This has brought the total to 1,515 ILI patients being treated in 97 hospitals including five private hospitals. :tiphat:http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/31/nation/4620537&sec=nation
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Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

I am seeing ths story or ones like it and I am not liking it. The actual warning of a mutation does not seem to have made the big noise it should be. So.. where is the big story thats says.. it has mutated...and when they plan on just saying that 1 simple fact? It is rite there In black and white. IT has mutated to a more severe form that directly attacks the lungs, and more should be done to protect the public from it. We seem to be on a slow train wreck.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Is there evidence that it has mutated? I have seen no evidence of this. The only evidence that I know of is resistance to oseltamivir.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Somethng has changed. you are readin the stories.. the WHO says it is jumpin straight to the lungs.. and Malaysia says it is not doing it there yet.. so it is doing It somewhere.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Is there evidence that it has mutated? I have seen no evidence of this. The only evidence that I know of is resistance to oseltamivir.

Not yet, but the release of sequences is delayed four to six weeks, so reports from the hospitals are the best early indicators that something is amiss.

In almost every country where the Swine Flu has initially hit, these reports are the same - lots of young adults getting sick, and deaths from otherwise perfectly healthy people.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

The World health organization has some explaining to do then. They say this in the same article:

-Snip-
Close monitoring of viruses by a WHO network of laboratories shows that viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical. Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form.

Likewise, the clinical picture of pandemic influenza is largely consistent across all countries. The overwhelming majority of patients continue to experience mild illness. Although the virus can cause very severe and fatal illness, also in young and healthy people, the number of such cases remains small.

-Snip-

and then in the SAME article they say this:

-Snip-
Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections. In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays.
-Snip-

They are saying two completely different extremes here.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_second_wave_20090828/en/index.html
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Those statements don't seem contradictory to me. The severe form has been reported from the beginning in Mexico, and it occurs in a small percentage of cases.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

so then Malaysia is certain they don't have a severe srain that is goin straight to the lungs.. defining it as a seperate strain ...No cases of the new severe strain of the Influenza A(H1N1) have been reported in the country but the Health Ministry is taking no chances.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Those statements don't seem contradictory to me. The severe form has been reported from the beginning in Mexico, and it occurs in a small percentage of cases.

Yes that is it. I have just reached this conclusion. We have been misinterpreting this statement and so has the media. That "new form" has been happening all along. It is just in a small number of people. We have interpreted this to mean a new varient of the virus. It should say "In this small number of patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure." Because they say this in the article. "The overwhelming majority of patients continue to experience mild illness. Although the virus can cause very severe and fatal illness, also in young and healthy people, the number of such cases remains small."
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

The World health organization has some explaining to do then. They say this in the same article:

-Snip-
Close monitoring of viruses by a WHO network of laboratories shows that viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical. Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form.

Likewise, the clinical picture of pandemic influenza is largely consistent across all countries. The overwhelming majority of patients continue to experience mild illness. Although the virus can cause very severe and fatal illness, also in young and healthy people, the number of such cases remains small.

-Snip-

and then in the SAME article they say this:

-Snip-
Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections. In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays.
-Snip-

They are saying two completely different extremes here.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_second_wave_20090828/en/index.html

The reports from clinicians since April have all been pretty much the same. As the virus hits, everyone is surprised at its affects on the population, and the tragedy of so many young people getting sick and some dieing. The story is the same in Sao Paulo (that claimed the virus had mutated), in Rio, in Argentina, Australia, etc.

And when the sequences roll in, they fall within three of five known variants that have been around since March (two of the variants have virtually disappeared). The virus has not changed in any material way. The story is consistent, and is repeated over and over again. And the total deaths attributed to the virus are surprising low. When you see the death count go through the roof, then you will know we have a rogue virus that has turned really ugly.
 
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