WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

[tropical]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

I have always been concerned with the information that was in the hands of the WHO, but was not being divulged to the public. But given this latest news article, they seemed to have turned around.

Yes, that's the core of the problem:
how it is possible that after 4 months of calming messages to the public (without by TV/media mainly mentioning the scary part) when the clinical picture at the fields revealed seemengly the similar number levels of vents/deaths,
now suddenly, they divulged to the public a mention about the above possibility, but enveloped in a virus change by the main media?

Why they reversed the plate now?

If there is no changing in the virus, than why they left the media trumpeting about a change, instead of make an public correctional statement about?

If there is a worse change in a pandemic virus (collected by the clinical signs from the old infected fields: which they were stated are not more obligated to send them the informations!), than why the already collected samples from the cases (which drove such field conclusion) weren't already sequenced, so they can make a clean statement about?

Is it credible that WHO are going to make such important statement about media referred new viral changes, without had such samples sequenced and identificated already the change?
Hardly.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Since the beginning Mexican doctors, CDC, WHO and scientific paper pointed toward an increased risk for healthy young adults.

The clinical presentation doesn't change since then.

We have a lot of news about severe cases in young healthy people for Canada and US, with sudden precipitation of condition toward bilateral pneumonia and requiring intensive care, with invasive procedures.

WHO cannot say a thing: that a number of countries and nations aren't able to cope with surge of cases because of a derelict health care system, even in affluent regions.

Since the Agency cannot name these countries one per one, it has choice a broad communication strategy: to all citiziens, you should aware of the fact that your government or health system will be unable to save more lives since the limitations inside the system structures.

Furthermore, a lot of affluent countries people are plagued by obesity and other chronic condition, and the life-span is longer; more chronics, more elderly, more cancer patients, all these people normally required a trained health care personnel, perhaps diverted to pandemic patients for a while during the coming weeks and months.

Why does New Zealand account at the peak of winter season for around 10% of population with influenza-like illness (more than usual) instead that 20-30% predicted by the WHO?

H1N1 2009 is moving all around the globe and reintroducted even in countries already passed the peak and from there to northern hemisphere and from north to south, east to west and vice-versa.

So, a more dangerous variant emerged in a remote atoll may be now in a community north of Polar Arctic Circle.

Or a variant emerged in a remote Siberian mine town could be already grounded by air in a holiday resort in Mediterranean Sea.

We are in the age of the speed: if the past pandemics moved in six months and more around the world, this time the pandemic strain rounded the globe in less then two months.

Really, people believe that a sudden change in pathogenicity needs to wait the autumn in northern hemisphere to emerge to the eyes of readers of press agencies reports?

 

[Dark Horse]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
To me, many of the statements being made by CDC and their paid consultants seem very much like someone on August 30, 1918 saying we have no evidence that the virus has changed. Looks like good old Rupert Blue, head of the US Public Health Service during the 1918 pandemic, has been reincarnated.

posted by Mamabird
"DH, if you know of any evidence that is at hand that would suggest that we need to step up the alarm for this flu season, you really have a moral obligation to share it with the rest of us. Like you, I have always been concerned with the information that was in the hands of the WHO, but was not being divulged to the public. But given this latest news article, they seemed to have turned around."

------------------------

I have no evidence or I would gladly share it. It's just that it strikes me as very odd that as we are on the cusp of what experts are saying will be a very challenging flu season, the US government is playing down the concerns of its own impressive group of advisors and the WHO. When WHO sounds any alarm, I take notice since they have been very cautious about such things in the past and easily surpressed by members who want to keep things hidden -- which may be the reason why WHO has not been specific about where some of these more lethal cases have surfaced.

My opinion (based entirely on extensive reading and personal analysis instead of any insider info) is that there will be regional variations of the virus (like H5N1 and the 1889-91 pandemic), some of which will be more lethal than others. It's very possible that a more lethal variation may become fit and spread widely. But, that does not mean that that the genetic or environmental factors that increase lethality will clearly be evident in the current state of our knowledge of influenza virology. It may look to our experts as though the virus has not significantly changed, but I question that we understand enough about this virus and all influenza viruses to be comfortable with the belief that it has not significantly changed.

Up until now, we could reassure ourselves that since most of the cases did not cause severe illness and death, that our experts knew what they were talking about regarding no significant changes in the virus. However, with what WHO and experts like Mayo's Dr. Greg Poland have indicated, maybe there are subtle changes that we don't comprehend yet.

Perhaps we are closer than we would like to think to those influenza scientists in 1918 who did not have the technology to comprehend that they were dealing with a virus instead of a type of bacteria.

As I recall, although I can't pull it up at the moment, that one of the analyses of the current pandemic virus compared with samples of previous pandemic viruses is that the current virus lacked the markers for high transmissibility as well as lethality. Hm-m-m. If my memory serves me right, somehow this virus acquired a pretty high level of transmissibility without showing the markers for it. Correct me if I'm wrong, since you are a scientist. I believe there were even several media articles touting this study.

And, finally, we have not begun to address what will happen to this virus once it infects a couple of billion people. It would be risky, in my opinion, to assume that in a second, third or fourth wave, it doesn't become much more lethal.

I sincerely hope that my personal opinion is wrong and that all the trust that we have invested in CDC, HHS and Homeland Security bears fruit.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

:tiphat:I see that other countries are calling it a new varient, and are on the watch for it.
No cases of new H1N1 strain in the country

By ANDREA FILMER


GEORGE TOWN: There have been no cases of the new severe strain of Influenza A (H1N1) in the country but the Health Ministry is taking no chances.
Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the ministry and Medical Research Institute (IMR) were monitoring the situation in the country closely after the World Health Organisation (WHO) had confirmed the new form of the virus.
?Until now what we have is still (the original strain of) H1N1.
?However, we are sending samples for gene sequencing every now and then to monitor the virus so if there are any further mutations, we can alert the people.
?We are also looking into whether the new strain is resistant to the anti-viral drug we are currently using,? he told reporters Sunday after attending a closed-door meeting between MCA and Chinese guilds and associations in Penang.
He said the ministry was working together with private clinics and hospitals to control the outbreak.
?The main things we are doing now are strengthening our treatment by getting private clinics and hospitals to assist and strengthen our drug supply by making sure all clinics and hospitals have sufficient anti-viral drugs so treatment can be given promptly.
?We also need the cooperation of the public and NGOs to come forward to fight this pandemic together,? he said.
On a WHO report stating that Malaysians were taking the flu threat lightly, Liow said there was a need to step up awareness campaigning, especially to the high-risk group. :tiphat:http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/30/nation/20090830180213&sec=nation
<!-- google_ad_section_end -->

 

[Treyfish]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

:tiphat:Vietnam has this. The story is basically the same but is being called a mutation or variation.

WHO warns new variant influenza A/H1N1 virus
TP - World Health Organization (WHO) said, doctors have discovered a new variant of influenza A/H1N1 virus more dangerous than previous lot.WHO in a press release for influenza A/H1N1 virus variation is likely to attack straight into the lungs of humans, causing serious disease quickly for both the body of healthy young people . This makes the treatment in hospitals more expensive.
"snip" :tiphat:http://www.tienphong.vn/Tianyon/Index.aspx?ArticleID=170301&ChannelID=9b

 

[Commonground]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

When WHO sounds any alarm, I take notice since they have been very cautious about such things in the past and easily surpressed by members who want to keep things hidden -- which may be the reason why WHO has not been specific about where some of these more lethal cases have surfaced.

that's about it in a nutshell. Well said. I've seen the transmisibility in Nam, I've seen it in India. I see the deadliness in India. I'm still trying to figure out the A, B & C Categories in India. Right now, I believe the C category is when the virus has gone too far. I do not believe they are different strains. I haven't seen that evidence yet.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

At this point, if one read the WHO statement ( http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_second_wave_20090828/en/index.html ) and then compare this with media reports, well, I admit that a sort of dual stream must be active: one for press agencies and another for common people.

Since

Close monitoring of viruses by a WHO network of laboratories shows that viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical. Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form.

then one may conclude that the scenario is basically the same since the beginning, with 99% of the cases with favorable outcome and 1% with fatal outcome.


But, as said, I am part of the category ''common people'' and not in the ''media outlets'' one (with the ''secret'' files on the hands...)

 

[Treyfish]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

30/08/2009 - Italy-

WHO: new strain that affects the lungs

The World Health Organization (WHO) sounded the alarm for a new strain of influenza A to be more aggressive because it directly affects the lungs.
Log (which according to doctors who are treating Monza is not the one that struck the young Parmesan) "attacks" even healthy young people, who normally do not get sick for the common influences. According to the WHO report on new strain "cause serious problems in the respiratory system and requires long hospitalization in intensive care units of specialized structures.

According to the World Health Organization in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is currently winter, the percentage of infected patients in intensive care has reached 15%.
The director general dell'Organizzione World Health Organization (WHO) Dr Margaret Chan, said she was "worried" because "40%" of the dead for the new flu "are young adults in good health."
In an interview with French newspaper Le Monde, Margaret Chan said that "60% of deaths on people who have health problems prior to the virus 'and then the remaining 40% are' young healthy dying of viral pneumonia in within 5-7 days.
'SNIP':tiphat:http://www.gazzettadiparma.it/prima...LOms:_nuovo_ceppo_che_colpisce_i_polmoni.html

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Italy daily newspapers are renowned for their inaccuracy in reporting news from press agencies.

H1N1 2009 interacts with lungs cells and was clear since the start of Mexico epidemics.

I don't understand because ARDS in Mexico City patients was less worrying then ARDS in India cases...

WHO knows well the amount of inequalities in health care access in the world: people will not have access to intensive care in most nations because the limitations inherited to the system, sometimes already strained by economic recession or by the results of decades of liberism.

Without a comprehensive evaluation of the reality of our days world, people will continue to remain scared by these kind of bad media.

Because, if people would start to question themselves about the status of national infrastructures and at inequalities, more government around the world would risk severe reaction by population...

 

[Dark Horse]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

30/08/2009 - Italy-

WHO: new strain that affects the lungs


The director general dell'Organizzione World Health Organization (WHO) Dr Margaret Chan, said she was "worried" because "40%" of the dead for the new flu "are young adults in good health."
In an interview with French newspaper Le Monde, Margaret Chan said that "60% of deaths on people who have health problems prior to the virus 'and then the remaining 40% are' young healthy dying of viral pneumonia in within 5-7 days.
'SNIP':tiphat:http://www.gazzettadiparma.it/prima...LOms:_nuovo_ceppo_che_colpisce_i_polmoni.html

What the heck is this going to do to our comforting media mantra: the deceased had underlying health conditions.

 

[tropical]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

It seems to be much more fire about, unfortunately.

If we read the Chinese Science Bulletin pdf document from July 2009 / vol. 54 / no. 13, about this pandemic virus,
which link was given to us by Emily in another post thread:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/7108ln14693gk29j/fulltext.pdf

we can clearly read at Page 4 that:

"The current new A (H1N1) influenza virus will persist
for years in human populations because: (i) The current
new A (H1N1) influenza virus has rooted deeply in human
populations in Mexico, USA and Canada; (ii) the
virus is rapidly spreading to the whole world (in Mexico
the reproduction rate, i.e. the number of new persons
infected by each cases, was estimated as 2.2―3.1[14]);
(iii) most people are sensitive to the virus; and (iv) no
effective measures available to eliminate the virus infections
in humans.

Some mutations were identified in the genomic sequences
of the current new A (H1N1) influenza virus
isolated in different countries including S220T in the
viral HA gene. It is of high possibility that the virus will
keep rapid mutation rates during its spreading in human
populations in the world, and consequently, its adaptability
to humans could be increased[5,15]."
___


The above scientific research statements a month ago,
co-joined with the actual WHO changed statement, supported by worldwide media bolding of the word variant/strain/..., at this point could realy represent a new moment based on govs/WHO class. info.

Such non WHO corrected worldwide media statements about new a version, could represent an tacit afirmative on an possible incoming change.

Obviously that we hope it's not a case, and that further precise details are expected from the scientists.

If such above reports will not came, we can further make only suppositions, or read conspiracy theories ...

 

[snatamur]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Old "songs" keep wandering around in my mind, like the little snip that WHO dropped in one of it's reports referring to abnormalities (varients) in certain parts of the US?
So every time I get new info to work with I watch with that in mind. "What were they talking about? Did I mistake Americas for America (us)." (No they are there)I also worry that we are looking for something big and missing something right in front of our faces.
For instance the example of the 3 ships from South America in 1918, theory, each arriving coincidentally at a port where the killer flu took off.... Could not be that, the people on board the ship would have been seriously ill, or are we talking about two strains (mild) with a small mutation that combined (like viruses do) and together were nasty. Again small changes that the experts are unsure of, (as to what that will mean in terms of how the flu reacts in our bodies are out there) frequently. em
1918 sea ships.......2009 air ships, 1918 lag time between waves.....2009 waves within waves, 1918 good planning and communication made best use of what they had in some areas........2009 waiting to see. Innovations 1918, some may have saved lives, some being tried currently ..... 2009 utilizing information provided in blogs, disgarding the marginally effective and trash, looking for the jewels..waiting to see.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

It seems to be much more fire about, unfortunately.

If we read the Chinese Science Bulletin pdf document from July 2009 / vol. 54 / no. 13, about this pandemic virus,
which link was given to us by Emily in another post thread:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/7108ln14693gk29j/fulltext.pdf

we can clearly read at Page 4 that:

"The current new A (H1N1) influenza virus will persist
for years in human populations because: (i) The current
new A (H1N1) influenza virus has rooted deeply in human
populations in Mexico, USA and Canada; (ii) the
virus is rapidly spreading to the whole world (in Mexico
the reproduction rate, i.e. the number of new persons
infected by each cases, was estimated as 2.2―3.1[14]);
(iii) most people are sensitive to the virus; and (iv) no
effective measures available to eliminate the virus infections
in humans.

Some mutations were identified in the genomic sequences
of the current new A (H1N1) influenza virus
isolated in different countries including S220T in the
viral HA gene. It is of high possibility that the virus will
keep rapid mutation rates during its spreading in human
populations in the world, and consequently, its adaptability
to humans could be increased[5,15]."
___


The above scientific research statements a month ago,
co-joined with the actual WHO changed statement, supported by worldwide media bolding of the word variant/strain/..., at this point could realy represent a new moment based on govs/WHO class. info.

Such non WHO corrected worldwide media statements about new a version, could represent an tacit afirmative on an possible incoming change.

Obviously that we hope it's not a case, and that further precise details are expected from the scientists.

If such above reports will not came, we can further make only suppositions, or read conspiracy theories ...

Another 'tasteful' citation:

In addition, the above inference and other information
available now could not exclude the possibility that the
current new A (H1N1) influenza virus came from a laboratory,
as in many laboratories in multiple countries, it
is not that difficult to generate such a new virus using
the technique of reverse-genetics from tubes without
clear manmade signs[13].

 

[Treyfish]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

<TABLE id=tbl_article border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px"><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Experts say Korea is overreacting to flu
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

August 31, 2009​

</TD></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px; LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" id=articleBody class=actxt>Korea is overreacting to the spread of the A(H1N1) virus, according to the head of a hospital that has treated the largest number of patients infected so far with the new flu.

Kim Jong-seok, head of Incheon Medical Center, said Korea is ??overly panicked?? and that the general public would be less anxious once people have the full story.

??I was shocked to see even doctors express fear about the new flu,?? said Kim after participating in a meeting of 360 hospital officials to discuss government designation of hospitals capable of treating A(H1N1). ??I wanted to share my opinions but I couldn??t say anything due to the grave atmosphere at the meeting.??

The Incheon hospital is one of five state-designated hospitals equipped with negative pressure isolation rooms. Negative air pressure within a room causes air to flow into the room from the outside whenever a door or window is opened, thus preventing the spread of the virus.

The hospital has 25 isolation units including five negative pressure isolation rooms and has treated the largest number of A(H1N1) patients due to its geographic proximity to Seoul. Of the 290 people it has treated so far, only four to five remain hospitalized and others have returned home, he said.

None of the three deaths from the disease in Korea came from the hospital and only two were treated at an intensive care unit. ??I think there??s some misunderstanding about the death and infection rates [of the new flu],?? he said.

Other experts agree the domestic situation with the flu is ??much better?? than in other countries. Out of 3,962 confirmed cases in Korea as of last Friday, three have died, a mortality rate of 0.08 percent, but the rate ranges between 1 and 1.5 percent even in developed countries such as the United States, Britain and Australia. The readings are still low compared to similar flu-like outbreaks in the recent past.

The mortality rate of Severe Acute Respiratory Symptom, or SARS, was 10 percent between 2002 and 2003, and avian influenza killed six out of 10 patients in 2005, according to the World Health Organization.

??I would say we have been waging a winning battle against H1N1 flu,?? said Park Seung-cheol, head of the national committee for measures against the new virus.

Kim Wu-joo, a professor at Korea University??s medical center, agreed. ??The government??s easygoing handling of the disease at first has added to the ongoing panic but the current situation is not that serious,?? he said

Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry said yesterday it will allow men infected with the influenza or those suspected of contracting the disease to delay the start of their military service. ??Those set to be enlisted can select a date for recruitment after getting better,?? said a ministry spokesman.

According to the ministry, the number of confirmed A(H1N1) cases in the Korean military totaled 606 as of yesterday, of whom 482 have been released after treatment. The remaining 124 are currently hospitalized.

But the number of confirmed cases is expected to rise as an additional 120 soldiers are undergoing treatment for suspected symptoms at military hospitals and bases. :tiphat:http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2909450</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[vinny]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

The one thing that bothers me is none of us know what this virus is capable of at the moment, and the winter here in the uk scares me a lot,my son goes back to school this week and im still not sure weather to let him go or not.


we can all guess and we all have our own thoughts, and then there are the scientific ones who read the releases about it,but the only thing that knows what will happen is the virus itself,and hopefully it will stay MILD, but as they say plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

[tropical]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Pitty that we can't know more about the real scientifical divergences, apart the actual state of the matter there.

Could be the "grave atmosphere" a reason to not release scientific proves.

Without enter the matter, this is an flu virus.

It is supposed to change continuously - so how anyone can be so sure of its vanishing or litle harming danger in the next future.

If the comment was from an non equiped with iso-rooms hospital, in an new situation of overwhelming fluxes of patients who can't stay in other dedicated hospitals, maybe the estimate will be diferent ...


#56:
"I wanted to share my opinions but I couldn¡¯t say anything due to the grave atmosphere at the meeting.¡±

The Incheon hospital is one of five state-designated hospitals equipped with negative pressure isolation rooms. Negative air pressure within a room causes air to flow into the room from the outside whenever a door or window is opened, thus preventing the spread of the virus.

The hospital has 25 isolation units including five negative pressure isolation rooms and has treated the largest number of A(H1N1) patients due to its geographic proximity to Seoul. Of the 290 people it has treated so far, only four to five remain hospitalized and others have returned home, he said.

None of the three deaths from the disease in Korea came from the hospital and only two were treated at an intensive care unit. ¡°I think there¡¯s some misunderstanding about the death and infection rates [of the new flu],¡± he said."

 

[Commonground]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

In India: [I get 3% of all infected - died]

Excerpt:

With 128 new cases, India has reported 3,881 H1N1 positive cases since early May when the first case was reported from Hyderabad. Two of these new cases are imported, and the rest contracted the virus without any travel history.

Among the states, Maharashtra continued to top the chart both in terms of deaths and positive cases.

So far the state has reported 1,591 positive cases, of which 51 have succumbed to the disease.
http://www.newkerala.com/nkfullnews-1-102132.html

From Treyfish's post above:

Out of 3,962 confirmed cases in Korea as of last Friday, three have died, a mortality rate of 0.08 percent, but the rate ranges between 1 and 1.5 percent even in developed countries such as the United States, Britain and Australia. The readings are still low compared to similar flu-like outbreaks in the recent past.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Assuming that the confirmed cases are ALL the cases...

Really, India has achieved enormous progresses in technology and IT, and in more other fields, but the presence of unbelievable level of inequalities among population must be kept into account.

Otherwise, all of us risk to compare Switzerland from Mumbai slums in terms of water, food and sanitation availability.

The social and economical conditions of hundreds of thousands of people cannot be discounted as amplifier for epidemics and increased morbidity and motality.

The same pathogen can result in 10% of ILI patient in New Zealand may result in a very higher attack rate in a overcrowded immense slum near one of the numerous megalopolis in Asia and elsewhere.

 

[tropical]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

#54:
"virus will persist for years in human populations"
...
"It is of high possibility that the virus will
keep rapid mutation rates during its spreading in human
populations in the world"


Even if at this moment things seems similar,
the above statements support such continuation in a way of low possibility,
and the rapid mutation of the virus as high possibly.

So, during a "for years" period ...


An important thing is to filter out if the vaccines security will be enaugh ok, or it wil be as fantasticaly depicted in some web sites speculations ...

 

[tropical]

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

The same pathogen can result in 10% of ILI patient in New Zealand may result in a very higher attack rate in a overcrowded immense slum near one of the numerous megalopolis in Asia and elsewhere.

I agree, but if I'm not err, such very higher atack rate, and a cfr with big numbers as 2-3% wasn't detected in, ad example, the slums in Brasil, or elsewhere where the virus was already present?
Additionaly, they haven't many special health resurces in the slums.

If the severity of the illness is more heavy from the cytokine reaction, than the weaker hosts will have a weaker cytokine reaction, or not?