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WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

#20, link to the Snowy thread:

#8: "Absolute quarantine has been shown definitely to exclude influenza.

The experience of Fort St. Philip, on the Mississippi River below New Orleans, is a case in point.

This post was able to maintain an effective isolation and entirely escaped infection during the fall wave of the disease.<sup>32</sup><sup> </sup>"


#13: "One point that appears important in diagnosis is the very general agreement that the throat presented a characteristic appearance at onset.

The various descriptions agree closely that the characteristic influenza throat showed a brilliantly red, glazed appearance of the pharynx and fauces without swelling or exudation. This appearance was most marked on the soft palate, and the sharp delimitation of the reddening at the margin of the hard palate was stressed. This throat condition was described not only in connection with the spring outbreak but with that of the fall as well. All patients complained of some degree of sore throat.​

During severe outbreaks, many patients exhibited a hemorrhagic tendency. "
___


Above there are well defined clinical symptoms to locate it:
"the throat presented a characteristic appearance at onset".

Throat problems are present now in this pandemic flu as pretty frequent also.
So, the GP's could also locate it without tests, if informed.
And absolute quarantine payed.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Just because the new flu lacks genetic factors that virologists "believe" caused virulence in previous pandemics is not evidence that there are not unknown genetic factors that increase virulence in the new flu.

Pandemics have regional variations and if one more virulent becomes fit, it will fly all around the world.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

However, to date the propensity of the epidemiologic evidence supports the genetic evidence. The virus circulating throughout the world is no more virulent than the one in Mexico City in April.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

This is really bad news...


Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday.


How can a severe form of swine flu be the same form/variant of the
H1N1, if it is a severe form???

I also add a BRKG icon to this thread due to the serious issue.

Does anyone have a link to the original newsreport/update from WHO on this issue?

OK, I just realized that it didn´t help that I added the BRKG icon, could a moderator add it to the actual thread, so that people who look through the "FluTrackers lates Posts" AND in the "Global Spread of A/H1N1 - Tracking World Wide Virulence & Age Distribution" section notice this serious news.

thanks
TF
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
Just because the new flu lacks genetic factors that virologists "believe" caused virulence in previous pandemics is not evidence that there are not unknown genetic factors that increase virulence in the new flu.

Pandemics have regional variations and if one more virulent becomes fit, it will fly all around the world.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

However, to date the propensity of the epidemiologic evidence supports the genetic evidence. The virus circulating throughout the world is no more virulent than the one in Mexico City in April.

WHO seems to think there is a more severe form circulating, hence this thread. I'm not in a position to ascertain whether the WHO is correct in its findings. As I recall when the CDC first recognized the pandemic virus in Mexico City, they freaked out and now say that the virus is not as dangerous as they first thought when seeing what it did in Mexico.

This is probably influenza heresy, but since I am not a scientist, I have nothing to lose for posing it as a possibility: while influenza scientists think they know what causes increased transmissiblity and lethality, their knowledge extends to the examination of established and historic influenza viruses, not these novel triple reassortants and certainly not whatever it mutates into. It's just possible that this new flu has a genetic trick or two up its sleeve. Perhaps just a Barry "bubble" at the moment.

I would certainly not accuse our best and brightest influenza scientists of hubris. No. No. But I am old enough to remember when the best and brightest believed that ulcers were caused by stress, diet, etc. The guy who suggested that the H. pylori bacteria was a major cause of stomach ulcers was dismissed as a heretic.

It's so very comforting to hear from CDC and other politicians that we don't see any reason to worry about this back-to-school forced second wave, unless, as Dr. Tom Frieden said, the virus changes. Hm-m-m. Do viruses change? Maybe someone should ask the good Dr. Frieden.

I've studied and marked up two very interesting out-of-print books: K. David Patterson's Pandemic Influenza, 1700-1900 and W.I.B. Beveridge's influenza: The Last Great Plague. They seem to think that second waves are more likely to be lethal, but....what do they know anyway? They don't work for CDC or HHS.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

On Washington Journal early this morning,(08/29/09) "Open Phones" they ran a short announcement by the CDC basically saying .....unless the H1N1 flu changes we are not anticipating the pandemic here (USA) to be as bad as others have predicted.....:magnify::confused::confused::confused:
Unfortunately, this along with other snippets that have aired on CNBC, presenting their ultra conservative views, are not segregated out for reviewing on video.:(
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

On Washington Journal early this morning,(08/29/09) "Open Phones" they ran a short announcement by the CDC basically saying .....unless the H1N1 flu changes we are not anticipating the pandemic here (USA) to be as bad as others have predicted.....:(

Your taxpayer dollars at work. Don't worry. Be happy.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

On Washington Journal early this morning,(08/29/09) "Open Phones" they ran a short announcement by the CDC basically saying .....unless the H1N1 flu changes we are not anticipating the pandemic here (USA) to be as bad as others have predicted.....:(

Let me try to understand "CDC speak": the virus won't be bad unless it changes. Is that like the weather will be fine unless it rains? Gee whiz, good thing that influenza viruses don't change much -- not any more than the weather.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Let me try to understand "CDC speak": the virus won't be bad unless it changes. Is that like the weather will be fine unless it rains?

It seems to me that the public health authorities all over the world have basically been dispensing pretty much the same message for several months now: the Swine Flu virus that showed up in North America causes illness that for the majority of patients is fully resolved without medical attention, but we will monitor the situation carefully to see if the virus changes (mutates) in a way that would make it more virulent.

Using a weather analogy, one might say that the weather is currently sunny and clear and is expected to stay that way until the tropical storm off the coast makes landfall bringing some wind and rain. However, if the pressure drops in the storm, it could develop into a full blown hurricane, therefore, we should all monitor carefully.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

The morale of this pandemic is perhaps that despite huge research fundings no clearly useful instruments are to date available to fast-track the evolution of the influenza viruses.

We have no new therapeutical tools to improve the survival rate for ARDS patients, even influenza linked or not.

We have not a vaccine manufacturing technology and surge capacity to respond a sudden emergency.

The ecology of influenza viruses is poorly understood.

The health care is a luxury for only a small proportion of world's population.

Media outlets and television are sometimes badly able to cope with health emergencies, and put incorrectly informations, causing anxiety among people.

More than a decade of an ill information, based more on official sources instead that ground facts, causes a loss of confidence among public opinion.

Clearly, it is among our must to cast doubts on WHO and other health agencies press statements and reports: with some degree of certainty, we may suspect that a portion of the truth are kept secret; with the help of a congerie of tools, people, we could be able to track sudden change in pandemic severity.

Papers, research articles, daily news reports may help us to see if these official statements are based on solid basis or not.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Agreed. Thus the tragedy of some 200,000 of the world's population dieing of influenza each year. Hopefully one day we can do better.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

It seems to be pretty much similarities about lung pneumonia, and other symptoms (from the posted Snowy's thread link text informations), in which some doctors analisy descriptions seems to point to a possibility of stil a same agent but with diferent severity cases manifesting (descriptions in pandemic 1918 spring and fall wave):


The Snowy's thread link:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12911&highlight=excess+mortality
Disease Pattern just Previous to 1918 Pandemic

Snowy's POST #13:

INFLAMMATORY DISEASES OF THE RESPIRATORY TRACT (BRONCHITIS, INFLUENZA, BRONCHOPNEUMONIA, LOBAR PNEUMONIA)

PART XII
CERTAIN CLINICAL ASPECTS

(EXCERPT - sympt./pneumonias species/throat/...):

...

The pneumonia of this period was carefully studied by a special commission of medical officers working at Camp Travis, Tex.<sup>2</sup><sup> </sup>They noted the presence at the time of an "epidemic of coryza, laryngitis, and mild bronchitis" in both the civil and military population of San Antonio.

The report of the commission states that clinically the pneumonias studied could be divided into three groups:
Bronchopneumonia, associated as a rule but not invariably with a recent measles attack;
(2) lobar pneumonia, giving the familiar signs and symptoms of that disease and sometimes following measles;
(3) a group showing clinically and anatomically a combination of groups 1 and 2.

The description of the bronchopneumonia found there is of especial interest not only because it was the unusual feature of the outbreak, but because it is of value in comparing it with the bronchopneumonia of later waves.

The cases at San Antonio were nearly all associated with the hemolytic streptococcus, though nearly half of them showed the presence of the Pfeiffer bacillus as well.

Onset was gradual and without definite chill or sudden elevation of temperature, whether occurring during the course of measles or only after an interval of several weeks. The temperature rarely exceeded 104° F., and was frequently irregular even in the absence of empyema. The pulse rate was not extremely rapid even in cases near death. Respiration, too, was not extremely rapid but was characterized by extreme respiratory difficulty.

Cyanosis was constant even in early cases.<sup>a</sup>

The cough was troublesome and the sputum varied in character, though not showing the tenacious rusty type, typical of lobar pneumonia. Pain was usually marked and was associated with the frequency of pleural infection. When noted, consolidation was usually at the base.

Râles, musical, squeaking, or moist, were usually heard throughout the chest. In some cases characteristic signs of consolidation in a certain area persisted for a few days and then entirely disappeared. In uncomplicated bronchopneumonia, wide areas of dullness and tubular breathing were never observed. When such signs were found there was invariably a concurrent lobar pneumonia. Empyema complicated about one-half of the cases studied and its fatality was at least 50 per cent.

The lobar pneumonia studied showed the presence of pneumococci, the epidemic types being demonstrated in two-thirds of the cases. In the series showing combined lesions both pneumococci and streptococci usually were demonstrated.


During the 1918 spring epidemic, pneumonia was for the first time attributed to antecedent influenza in any considerable number of cases, although the diagnosis previously had been made.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The clinical types of pneumonia seen in March and April corresponded well with those seen in the camps showing a high death rate during the winter months.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
<sup>a</sup>Other observers have stated that cyanosis on admission for measles characterized cases that developed pneumonia later.
<hr size="1" noshade="noshade">

At this time the camps were much more generally affected. Empyema was still common and the mortality was generally associated with this complication. A small number of cases of a new type of the disease was seen for the first time during this outbreak.

A patient with an attack of typical influenza of two or three days’ duration would, after a day or two of normal temperature, develop acute pneumonic symptoms and die within 48 hours. This was the fulminant type of influenzal pneumonia familiar in the fall outbreak.

The proportion of cases recorded as lobar in type was lower in the spring than in the winter and the case fatality of pneumonia was higher.<sup>78,</sup><sup>79</sup>

<sup>
</sup>

During the period of lower incidence of respiratory infections following the spring outbreak and lasting throughout the summer, this increased case fatality of pneumonia cases persisted and even increased as is seen in the monthly tables. The increase culminated in the month of September, 1918, with the violent outbreak of the most severe influenza wave, which first showed its great virulence in the northeastern camps.

The percentage of influenza cases developing pneumonia at this time varied in different localities. The maximum figures were about 25 per cent. The usual case fatality at this time was around 30 per cent.

Though the disease, as seen in different camps, varied somewhat in its clinical manifestations due to the various factors that have been discussed, the general characteristics of the complication were very constant.

Few observers were able to distinguish clinically with any definiteness in the early stages of the disease between cases which showed later lobar lesions and cases of bronchopneumonia.

The following condensed description of influenzal pneumonia of the most fatal type is drawn largely from a series of studies made at the Walter Reed General Hospital, D. C.<sup>82,86</sup>
<sup>
</sup>

The onset of the pneumonic complication occurred either after two or three days of normal temperature following an attack of influenza, or it developed gradually without there being an afebrile interval. In the former group the onset was often characterized by chill and sudden rise of temperature.

The severity of the disease was correlated with the amount of lung involvement, unilateral cases doing much better than those with both lungs affected. Fulminant cases with severe toxemia showed rapid involvement of the entire lung.


In nonfatal cases, usually presenting a unilateral lesion, the temperature ranged from 100° to 103° F.

The pulse was characteristically slow; the blood pressure low, the systolic figure often below 100 mm.; respiration was only slightly accelerated. Nonfatal cases usually recovered after an illness of about a week and defervescence was by crisis in some series, by lysis in others. In cases with bilateral lesions the cyanosis was more marked, even to an indigo blue color, the temperature ranged somewhat higher than in the unilateral cases and often showed variations paralleling the advance and recession of the pulmonary lesion as shown by the X ray or by physical signs.

Cough was frequent and exhausting; the sputum, blood tinged or mucopurulent. In the more toxic cases, terminating fatally, the color of the patient from the first was either that of an intense cyanosis or a muddy, claylike pallor. The pallor was of particularly bad prognostic import. Nervous symptoms appeared early, restessness and delirium being marked.

<hr size="1" noshade="noshade">
The respiration became very rapid and dyspnea was pronounced. Physical signs of irregular consolidation and of edema filled the entire chest. The temperature ranged to 105° F. or higher, and death occurred in from three days to a week.



It is evident that these groups were not clean-cut and that all degrees of varying severity intervened. Inasmuch as such a proportion of severe pneumonia has in the past seldom been associated with influenza, it is important to record in somewhat greater detail the peculiarities of this outbreak.


The first point to strike the observer was the universal occurrence of cyanosis. This condition appearing in an apparently uncomplicated case of influenza, if of a degree at all marked, usually presaged the onset of pulmonary inflammation. Whether due to toxic changes in the composition of the blood or to mechanical interference with oxygenation by the exudate in the lungs, the intensity of the cyanosis was, in general, an index to the severity of the case.


In milder cases of influenza, a peculiar shade of "pink cyanosis" was observed, an erythematous flush of an unusual shade. The well-established case of pneumonia showed a shade that was usually described as heliotrope, and in the most asthenic group, usually associated with coma vigil, a muddy clay-colored pallor prevailed.


In some series of cases the tendency to hemorrhages from the mucous membranes was very notable. Epistaxis, which occurred in 10 per cent or more of the cases, was of all degrees, but often severe, recurrent, and debilitating in the extreme. Purpura, intestinal, and renal hemorrhages also occurred.


Of respiratory symptoms proper it may be said that these differed relatively little from the respiratory symptoms of the usual pneumonias. Pleuritic pain was frequent, cough was distressing, and frequently there was so much expectoration as to make resorting to narcotic relief seem dangerous.


The character of the sputum varied from the tenacious rusty expectoration of typical lobar pneumonia, through varying degrees of mucopus, and frothy blood-stained material to the profuse pink froth in the mouth and nose which characterized the fulminant cases.

The typical rusty sputum was rare, but the presence of some amount of blood was the rule.

From the beginning the physical signs were confusing. Typical signs of consolidation were seldom found, and then late.

After some experience with these cases most observers concluded that the diagnosis of pulmonary involvement was better made from the general course and symptomatology than from physical signs. Here, too, the X-ray examination proved very valuable, as was stated above. The early signs of pneumonia were confined to the presence of fine scattered râles, and as these râles were found in many apparently uncomplicated influenza cases their significance was not clear. As the involvement proceeded, dullness became evident on percussion, and breath sounds, voice, and fremitus were diminished, thus suggesting fluid in the pleura. Areas of tympany were also observed. After several days the confluence, or extension of consolidated areas, often produced typical signs of consolidation.



Pleuritic friction was often heard.


The heart action was slow in proportion to the temperature, and right-sided dilatation was not the rule even in severe and fatal cases. Low blood pressure was noted, in some cases the systolic blood pressure falling as low as 80 mm. without a necessarily fatal issue.
<hr size="1" noshade="noshade">
The temperature was very variable, usually of a fairly continous type, but in some cases remissions with sweating were frequent even without suppurative complications. The leucocyte counts were also variable, some fatal cases showing no change from the initial leucopenia. In others a marked polynucleosis supervened. Pneumococcus cases showed this rise earlier than did cases infected with streptococci. Blood cultures were positive in a relatively small proportion of cases, and pneumococcus infection gave the great majority of the positive results.

Toxic nephritis, varying in degree, occurred in nearly every case.

...
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

In other words, I paid to get rained on!
How ever to add a little more water to the fire, so to speak. Look at the states who's schools are having the largest current absentees for ILI, type A and confirmed H1N1 and compare (if possible) their stats to the 120 cities info, ? city in that state. I. E. Florida's is small but growing, Miami, St. Petersburg and Tampa #'s are low as compared to Birmingham AL, where the list of schools with truant flu muffins is growing by leaps and bounds. One poor kid died in the Dr.'s Office waiting to be seen ( in Mississippi)? Old or "New" H1N1.
(My condolences to his folks):(
 
Last edited:
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

In other words, I paid to get rained on!
How ever to add a little more water to the fire, so to speak. Look at the states who's schools are having the largest current absentees for ILI, type A and confirmed H1N1 and compare (if possible) their stats to the 120 cities info, ? city in that state. I. E. Florida's is small but growing, Miami, St. Petersburg and Tampa #'s are low as compared to Birmingham AL, where the list of schools with truant flu muffins is growing by leaps and bounds. One poor kid died in the Dr.'s Office waiting to be seen ( in Mississippi)? Old or "New" H1N1.
(My condolences to his folks):(

Condolences to all worldwide indeed.

We could only make a supposition that:
the point seems to be that now, suddenly, poped out the TV/... media story of a new version attacking the lungs, after months of mainly TV media silence on the item, and by looking at the WHO public statement it isn't visible that they state about some new variant, or details it.

Now, making some suppositions:
1. or this media hype is suggested by the international preparedness efforts because of preparing psy. the populations as fall approaches,
or
2. there is realy a new variant out there, which sequences remains concealed for the public, and on the wide health information nets, and WHO signaled this by an generic statement indicating its final outcome of more serious direct lung illnessing in some.

Why it seems to some, maybe wrong, that the answer is 1. ?
Because through reading the many FT threads about this pandemic from march, apart the question of the appearance of the antiviral resistant version of this virus, some Brasil claims of new viral traits, the other gained news info didn't aired any bigger change in this virus worldwide (researchers included).

At this point we can insert some additional questionable things.

Many times previous the pandemic, there are published how many bunches of various viruses with various changing characteristics pops out every year, with mostly low impact, but that also means this virus could already have variants also.

At the same time, the researchers, when publicly speaking, with all today science and genome sequencing, couldn't say for sure what will happen because there seems to be other inner links to be explained.

They insisted that this virus haven't got some deadly maker characteristics of the 1918 flu virus, so it could not be such bad if it not change, but at the same time (as DH and some others here at FT said), this is a completely new virus (no matter that the individual components exists previously), so nobody can say for sure how it will behave when it will past to big infected numbers of humans.

All the above prology is to say that:
If this new WHO statement indicate realy the appearance of a variant of this virus with new traits which drive direct attacks on the lungs, why than there were no releases, or clues publicly from anywhere about what are these changes?
That can pose us in a possition to doubt that this public revealing was only what must be said 4 months ago about this virus - the cytokine storm appearance and it's deadly cases incidence, it's cripling to vents, and it's diference compared to seasonal flu - because during this 4 months, the main media circuits and the TV, released calming messages about "this is seasonal like, ...", so maybe now the time of real state revelations is came with the Northern fall and it's continuation.


An deep insight from the virology experts here, or drained from other worldwide experts about new research foundings, would be greatly appreciated to clear up the wroted doubts about the state of the matter.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

All the above prology is to say that:
If this new WHO statement indicate realy the appearance of a variant of this virus with new traits which drive direct attacks on the lungs, why than there were no releases, or clues publicly from anywhere about what are these changes?


As I re-read the WHO statement, I get the impression that doctors have informed them of serious illness related to the Swine Flu that may indicate a new, more virulent strain circulating. There is no public releases, other than this report, because there is apparently nothing else to release. If genetic sequences become available from those that were seriously ill, then maybe there will be some additional evidence that could shed light on the matter.

I think it is important to note that WHO passed this information on to us early on without knowing for certain that anything is amiss with the virus itself. Frankly, I appreciate this proactive approach to public communication.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

I think WHO was pointing out the differences between seasonal flu and H1N1 2009.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

It was good of WHO to pass this on. For those of us who have followed some of their responses to H5N1, one can come to the conclusion that they are not exactly an alarmist organization.

What I find fascinating is the response in the US to two very important recent events:

1) The president's advisory group report which was quickly dismissed by CDC as alarmist.

and

2) WHO's statement on a severe form of the virus that is circulating in some areas which has elicited a very peculiar response in the media. For example, ABC's article:

"Doc Scrutinize WHO Swine Flu Warning: Some Say While Severe Swine Flu Exists, Warnings May Be Overblown"

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/SwineFluNews/story?id=8438883

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can't imagine ABC coming up with an article like this without a nudge from CDC or Homeland Security, perhaps motivated by fearing WHO could alarm Americans now that our magic bullet vaccine is looking less and less like a magic bullet. If WHO has reason to believe that something nasty may become genetically fit, it may turn CDC's magic bullet into a blank.

To be fair, the ABC article does point out near the end comments that are opposed to the headlines from experts like Mayo Clinic's Greg Poland, but many people will not read below the fold.

To me, many of the statements being made by CDC and their paid consultants seem very much like someone on August 30, 1918 saying we have no evidence that the virus has changed. Looks like good old Rupert Blue, head of the US Public Health Service during the 1918 pandemic, has been reincarnated.

Let's hope that these US bureaucrats and their paid consultants are right. There is certain to be a re-visitation to such comments if they are wrong.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

Hi Andy,

It's good to have someone on the board here to defend the government point of view. You're doing a great job of it.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

I'm not defending anyone, seriously. I'm just saying my read of the article seemed to imply that WHO was comparing seasonal flu (which can cause bacterial pneumonia) to H1N1 2009 (where the virus causes pneumonia by deep infection of the lung). If there are sequences that show changes in virulence, then I agree with you but as Mamabird said - so far there are not. I was just pointing out that people may be misreading the WHO release, that's all.
 
Re: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

To me, many of the statements being made by CDC and their paid consultants seem very much like someone on August 30, 1918 saying we have no evidence that the virus has changed. Looks like good old Rupert Blue, head of the US Public Health Service during the 1918 pandemic, has been reincarnated.

DH, if you know of any evidence that is at hand that would suggest that we need to step up the alarm for this flu season, you really have a moral obligation to share it with the rest of us. Like you, I have always been concerned with the information that was in the hands of the WHO, but was not being divulged to the public. But given this latest news article, they seemed to have turned around.
 
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