Vallat - OIE Remarks Clarified

[Extrapolation]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Moreover, it is a fool's errand to characterize Dr Vallet's statement as a "lone dissenting voice or personal opinion" - whether professional - or otherwise.

His statement was a statement derived from policy.

And was constructed around policy - not fact - and justified by the greater good doctrine.

This man is not some blogger from flubia - he sits atop one of the largest governmental public health organizations in the western world. He is not "able" in such a position to provide opinion - his duty is the presentation of reliable, sustainable and vetted fact.

Somebody correct me on this if I am in error.

- Extrapolation

 

[gsgs]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

whether his opinion or that of his agency, his consultants -
we hear/read such opinion-statements frequently.
I have a collection here:
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewforum.php?f=10&mforum=fluwiki2


The trick seems to be to make people believe what they want
them to believe, without strictly speaking being wrong.
Just maybe misleading.

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Agreed gsgs- I am not a conspiracy theorist, I as a practical matter am just saying that what delineates the "consensus" that you stipulate above is the philosophical tenants embraced by such agencies as to whether they are motivated by economic concerns - or individual citizenry concerns.

Like the prosecution of any assault, there are acceptable casualties, for the greater good (read: victory and the post-war return from chaos - to status quo - business as usual.

The question remains: which definition of the greater good are these agencies serving. Collective Geo-economic status quo (which by its nature, government health is biased toward) or individual health concerns for its citizenry - (which by its very nature, and unlike Government Heatlh Orginazations, altruist science: is biased toward).

This is the counter-intuitive bi-focal all news must be viewed and processed through.

-Extrapolation

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Very good Tropical

BTW - the original story is now on google's front page for health news. There is no mention of the qualifying article quoting Osterholm.

However, it is right below the stories about BF in Bangladesh & India.

.

 

[tropical]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Very good Tropical

BTW - the original story is now on google's front page for health news. There is no mention of the qualifying article quoting Osterholm.

However, it is right below the stories about BF in Bangladesh & India.

.

Pardon me Denise, but seems that you name me off context now, instead of some other partecipant.


Looking the actual dispute of scientists statements, it seems to me like many other scientific ones.
Many, many, many years of experiments for stating something that will be smacked down with some new foundings, but than will be already late.

From many hystorical records we can read how many times the "scientific mainstream", or the estab. forced one way, and then, after many decades, other scientists founds that other ways were possible, or that the statements was false.

A fact is that no human virus happened for 10 years (from 1997) from the H5N1 - if that is a meaning of "very stable", but what that means scientificaly, that it can't, it will not?

___
FT "Johnny Yuma":
"Bird flu is a political, financial, and orchestrated game played by rich and powerful "global thinking" people. They have no allegiance to any one country---only allegiance to themselves.
I can think of no way to influence them to stop the game."
___

Maybe that's all are only "Fools and ..." soap, the somebody's games?

Or an initial trying of "media blanketing"?

When we knows that, probably will be too late.

___
FT "Extrapolation":
"To the extent that the basis numbers are in effect being provided by government agencies rather than independent science based NGO's - the data is even more suspect due to the fact that such information is filtered more in terms of economics and the impact of pandemic - rather than issues of world health and the survivability of earth's citizenry - as the gold standard."
___

Remember, for now, we are on our own - the world health facilities can't cope with such an pandemic - we know this in advance, no new buildings, no more employed health personel, no vaccines, and no drugs.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

It is the press who quoted Vallat. To remain unbiased, we must always remember to weigh each view point and opinion. We must also weigh a person's comments by the body of their entire work.


"...The topic of Dr Vallat’s talk is avian influenza but he tries to also give some information on OIE’s vision - not only on avian influenza but also on all emerging diseases in the new context of the world with globalisation, climatic change and which policy could be adopted to face these new situations.
Information on the sequence of events that occurred with the outbreak of the H5N1 Asian strain of avian influenza is provided, mapping the viruses spread during the period 2003 to 2007.
In summary, the behaviour of the Asian strain is unprecedented because this virus was able to spread through three continents.
Factors enhancing the virus’ spread were:

• migratory water fowl
• commercial exchanges
• the lack of biosecurity
• veterinary services unable to control animal movements.

Dr Vallat points out that we are now aware that migratory water fowl as well as commercial exchanges were both responsible for avian influenza infections. He says we also know that if a country is unable to rapidly detect and control H5N1 it becomes endemic..."

http://www.csiro.au/multimedia/SnowdonLecture2007Ch1.html


Risk communication is difficult. It begins with a reasoned mind. A clarification is needed here. FT sent an email to Dr. Vallat Friday afternoon.

 

[tropical]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Another opposite from stable news text from "Pravda" (by Bfbrnews):

http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsfromrussia.com%2Fnews%2Fscience%2F14-01-2008%2F103392-bird_flu-0
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td>Bird flu may be easily transmissible between humans

</td></tr><tr><td>Front page / Science
</td></tr><tr><td><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr valign="center"><td align="center" bgcolor="#e7e7e7" width="132">01/14/2008 05:55</td><td bgcolor="#e7e7e7">

Source: </td><td align="center" bgcolor="#e7e7e7" width="120"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100"><tbody><tr><td>

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<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><!-- TEXT BLOCK 0 -->A 32-year-old Indonesian woman has died of bird flu, the health ministry said in a statement Monday, bringing the toll to 95 in the nation worst hit by the H5N1 virus.
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</td></tr><tr><td id="11">Bird flu may be easily transmissible between humans</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td width="16">

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</td></tr></tbody></table>She had been taken to hospital on January 9 with a fever, difficulty breathing and pneumonia, but her family "ignored the advice of the hospital doctor to continue hospitalization".
The woman's family kept chickens in their backyard, iol.co.za reports.
<!-- TEXT BLOCK 2 -->The global spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat.
<!-- TEXT BLOCK 3 -->While other H5N1 strains are known, they are significantly different from a current, highly pathogenic H5N1 strain on a genetic level, making the global spread of this new strain unprecedented. The H5N1 strain is a fast-mutating, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) found in multiple bird species. It is both epizootic (an epidemic in non-humans) and panzootic (a disease affecting animals of many species especially over a wide area). Unless otherwise indicated, "H5N1" in this article refers to the recent highly pathogenic strain of H5N1.
<!-- TEXT BLOCK 4 -->"Since 1997, studies of H5N1 indicate that these viruses continue to evolve, with changes in antigenicity and internal gene constellations; an expanded host range in avian species and the ability to infect felids; enhanced pathogenicity in experimentally infected mice and ferrets, in which they cause systemic infections; and increased environmental stability."
<!-- TEXT BLOCK 5 -->Experts believe more work is needed to determine the role of mammals in the epidemiology of H5N1. Officials are not doing enough to monitor cats, dogs and other carnivores for their possible role in transmitting H5N1. People living in areas where the A(H5N1) virus has infected birds are advised to keep their cats indoors. "Cats can be infected through the respiratory tract. Cats can also be infected when they ingest the virus, which is a novel route for influenza transmission in mammals. But cats excrete only one-thousandth the amount of virus that chickens do.


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[Extrapolation]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

It is the press who quoted Vallat. To remain unbiased, we must always remember to weigh each view point and opinion. We must also weigh a person's comments by the body of their entire work.


"...The topic of Dr Vallat’s talk is avian influenza but he tries to also give some information on OIE’s vision - not only on avian influenza but also on all emerging diseases in the new context of the world with globalisation, climatic change and which policy could be adopted to face these new situations.
Information on the sequence of events that occurred with the outbreak of the H5N1 Asian strain of avian influenza is provided, mapping the viruses spread during the period 2003 to 2007.
In summary, the behaviour of the Asian strain is unprecedented because this virus was able to spread through three continents.
Factors enhancing the virus’ spread were:

• migratory water fowl
• commercial exchanges
• the lack of biosecurity
• veterinary services unable to control animal movements.

Dr Vallat points out that we are now aware that migratory water fowl as well as commercial exchanges were both responsible for avian influenza infections. He says we also know that if a country is unable to rapidly detect and control H5N1 it becomes endemic..."

http://www.csiro.au/multimedia/SnowdonLecture2007Ch1.html


Risk communication is difficult. It begins with a reasoned mind. A clarification is needed here. FT sent an email to Dr. Vallat Friday afternoon.

I was just trying to make a point that while yes, one must weigh and place in the context of the "full measure" of their statements (and or work) - at the end of the day - he Vallant, was speaking on behalf of his station/position - within OIE.

To NOT factor in the "policy-factor" would seem to me both naive - and detrimental to the pursuit of the very "balance" you mention that needs to be tempered from the data.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,322546,00.html

Bird Flu: More Over-Hyped Than the Super Bowl


reminds me to Fumento who one year ago offered a bet of 1:10
that there won't be a pandemic in 2008.
GR said, he would take the bet, I don't know whether he really did...

 

[cartski]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

If the"policy-factor" led Dr. Vallat to declare the H5N1 as "stable, surely the policy formulating method of these leading agencies is lacking the abiltiy to arrive at a consensus position and to enforce a common public message.

Again, I wish Sandman would enter into the fray on these types of issues. I believe he's written on this type of problem.

Surely the Science article sums up the position that should be taken in public, and let the academic debate be handled in private:

"...highly pathogenic H5N1 strain on a genetic level, making the global spread of this new strain unprecedented. The H5N1 strain is a fast-mutating, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) found in multiple bird species. It is both epizootic (an epidemic in non-humans) and panzootic (a disease affecting animals of many species especially over a wide area). "

If "stable" comes from an original discussion or press conference conducted in French, is there a transcript?

J.

 

[JohnW]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

More of the same!

It was only a few years ago that we were told that bird flu would leave our country covered with corpses and feathers. But now, according to real experts, "the risk was over-estimated" and the pandemic lacked scientific proof.
Big surprise.
It's just like all those other scares overblown by the media. Remember the killer bees? How about razor blades in candy? What about the return of fondue? I cheese-proofed my house and everything ? but it was all hype.
That's because hysteria makes great press for the experts quoted and the reporters who quote them. Panics, like conspiracies, are also a great way to pretend you care about an issue when you're only repeating dopey headlines. Sadly it takes more brains to debunk hysteria and that's why you never hear real doctors babbling about bird flu or global warming ? they're too busy working, instead of doing CNN.
And you're going to see this again in eight years, when the dangers of global warming approximate the dangers of bird flu ? with less poop. But, on the off chance I am wrong, I just bought a new Speedo. If you'd like to see me in it, e-mail me at Gregsbananahammock.org and I will send you a hand-drawn replica in two to three business years.



http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,322546,00.html

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

From AFP in French:

PARIS (AFP) - La souche hautement pathogène du virus H5N1 de la grippe aviaire peut être éradiquée si elle est combattue avec succès en Egypte, en Indonésie et au Nigeria, où elle est parvenue à s'installer de façon endémique, a déclaré jeudi à Paris le directeur général de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé animale (OIE), Bernard Vallat.

"Si on arrivait à éradiquer le virus dans ces pays là, le problème de la pandémie de H5N1 asiatique serait réglé", a estimé M. Vallat qui présentait le travail de son organisation à la presse.

Il a ajouté qu'on avait affaire à une "souche extrêmement stable", un phénomène rarissime pour les virus grippaux, mais il n'a pas exclu pour autant que le H5N1 puisse à l'avenir muter et devenir transmissible d'homme à homme, avec le risque de provoquer une pandémie grippale.

M. Vallat a rappelé qu'"on n'a jamais vu dans l'Histoire de souche aussi agressive pour l'animal" et il a estimé que les différentes formes de virus de la grippe aviaire, dont il existe des centaines de souches, vont "continuer à être un risque" majeur dans les années à venir pour la santé publique.

La souche hautement pathogène du virus H5N1 a tué 216 personnes sur 348 infectées en quatre ans, tandis que des centaines de millions de volailles lui ont succombé ou ont dû être abattues.


Google translated:

PARIS (AFP) - The highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 bird flu can be eradicated if it is tackled successfully in Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria, where it has managed to settle so endemic, said Thursday Paris the Director General of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), Bernard Vallat.

"If you happen to eradicate the virus in these countries is the problem of the Asian H5N1 pandemic would be resolved", said Mr Vallat, who presented the work of his organization to the press.

He added that he was dealing with a " strain extremely stable," a phenomenon rare for influenza viruses, but it (he, ed) has not excluded as long as the H5N1 could mutate in the future and become transmissible between humans, with the risk of provoking an influenza pandemic.

Mr. Vallat said that "we have never seen in history of aggressive strain also for the animal" and he felt that the various forms of avian flu virus, of which there are hundreds of strains, will " continue to be a risk "Major in the coming years for public health.

The highly pathogenic strain of the H5N1 virus has killed 216 people out of 348 infected in four years, while hundreds of millions of birds have died or have been culled.

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/afp/20080110/thl-sante-grippe-elevage-afrique-asie-96993ab_1.html

It seems Google translation tool did a good job here.

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

If the"policy-factor" led Dr. Vallat to declare the H5N1 as "stable, surely the policy formulating method of these leading agencies is lacking the abiltiy to arrive at a consensus position and to enforce a common public message.

Again, I wish Sandman would enter into the fray on these types of issues. I believe he's written on this type of problem.

Surely the Science article sums up the position that should be taken in public, and let the academic debate be handled in private:

"...highly pathogenic H5N1 strain on a genetic level, making the global spread of this new strain unprecedented. The H5N1 strain is a fast-mutating, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) found in multiple bird species. It is both epizootic (an epidemic in non-humans) and panzootic (a disease affecting animals of many species especially over a wide area). "

If "stable" comes from an original discussion or press conference conducted in French, is there a transcript?

J.

Consensus by its nature in an amalgamation of divergent views. What we in flubia seem to do as the prime motive, is function as a data gathering group, with the desire to both personally and collectively function as, for lack of a better term: "an early warning system" - with (I hope) an underlying altruism to share reliable observations with the unprepared.

The basic need to differentiate the motive's of governmental public health definition of "the greater good doctrine" - and science: to disclose unfiltered biological events - may not be serving the same masters.

As to "masters" read: the individual.

As long as Flubia does not comingle the two counter-opposing and counter-intuitive data-points - we have a chance to "mine" the real facts as they develop.

If not, we through omission, become part of the government policy to serve the economic collective - rather than the individual.

IMHO,

- Extrapolation

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

I was just trying to make a point that while yes, one must weigh and place in the context of the "full measure" of their statements (and or work) - at the end of the day - he Vallant, was speaking on behalf of his station/position - within OIE.

To NOT factor in the "policy-factor" would seem to me both naive - and detrimental to the pursuit of the very "balance" you mention that needs to be tempered from the data.

I am merely suggesting that we look at all of the data, including the full body of his work, in evaluating this current statement.

It has been a loooong time since someone called me naive. Thanks! 20 again! :tiphat:

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

I am merely suggesting that we look at all of the data, including the full body of his work, in evaluating this current statement.

It has been a loooong time since someone called me naive. Thanks! 20 again! :tiphat:

In fairness to both you and I - I was not calling you Naive. I was saying it in the context of epistemology, as in: anyone - would be naive to not differentiate the innate polar distinctions between the two subject viewpoints.

So it has "Still" been alooooong time since anyone called you naive my new friend.

- Extrapolation

 

[gsgs]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

fast mutating when compared to Rhinovirus,
stable when compared with China 2002-2004
H5N1-Evolution.
Without an absolute scale, these statements are
not very informative.

 

[cartski]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

fast mutating when compared to Rhinovirus,
stable when compared with China 2002-2004
H5N1-Evolution.
Without an absolute scale, these statements are
not very informative.

Sorry, I may have asked this before, but how is the rate expressed or calculated?

Is there something like #mutations per month? # recombinations per year?

Surely there must be (in the literature ) some objective basis for this comparison of the "stability" of a virus.

I still don't understand the scientific/genetic basis for Vallet's comment.

Even if he's "towing the party line", there's got to be some genetics/ data / summary table that backs up his position?!?! Similarly, how did Osterholm substantiate the opposite opinion??

J.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

yes, you can measure the number of mutated nucleotides per year.
I don't think this has changed a lot with H5N1, if we discard
reassortment,recombination.
It may have reduced a bit, because reassortments are dramatical
changes, and the new virus then mutates more subsequently
to adapt.
However reassortments can change hundredths of nucleotides at a time
and thus account for larger instability.
And these have decreased since 2005, few H5N1 reassortments
outside China. Fewer than expected.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

One hot day does not a global warming make, neither does one expert touting a stable virus. If he thinks this is stable it is up to him to prove his hypothesis using the scientific method. His statement, I won't even give it a hypothesis definition yet, is unique. It is up to him to defend this stand. Until he does I will depend on virtually all other experts in the field who report viral changes and have done so since the beginning. The virus is inherently unstable.

 

[Anne]

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/

Now OIE has sent out this message:

Dear All, You may have certainly picked up yesterday's AP paper which quoted Bernard Vallat as downplaying the risk of a "bird flu pandemic" to occur. We had organized an informal meeting with the press as we usually do at the beginning of the year, for the new years greetings.
The event was not a press conference to deal with avian influenza, but it was a welcome breakfast for the new year for selected members of the press. During the general discussions on current and future activities of the OIE, the subject of avian influenza was raised by AP who pressed Bernard Vallat to talk about his view on the current situation with H5N1.
The title of the AP paper is a misquote of what Bernard Vallat has said.
He has been consistent in saying that the virus has proven to be considerable stable, that the epidemiologic behaviour has not significantly changed, referring to the infectivity in birds, as well as the way it is transmitted and manifested in human and other mammalian species.
Bernard Vallat has never said that a pandemic will not occur or that H5N1 is not a potential candidate.
What he said, as he has said before, is that while a pandemic is going to occur, no one can say when and what is going to be the causative agent. He has often said that there are other avian influenza strains that have the potential for being as infective or even more than the current H5N1 strain.
The OIE position has always been that we need to strengthen the infrastructure capable of early detection and rapid response for ANY emerging disease at animal level. For this we need to strengthen the governance of veterinary services and improve the collaboration between disciplines, as well as between private and public sector.
What we have been saying is that it is not JUST H5N1, but it is about all emerging and re-emerging diseases, including zoonoses.