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Vallat - OIE Remarks Clarified

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Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Well for those fence-sitting preppers it means they can go back to ignoring the virus. What an incredibly asinine thing to do. This will go down in the history books as a huge setback.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Why such different estimates? Severe slots between mild and Ultra or is it a revised estimate?

2007 http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10491
According to World Bank estimate, a severe flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy up to about 3.1 to 4.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), which is between 1.25 trillion and 2 trillion U.S. dollars of a world GDP.
Click to expand...
2006 Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza. http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=527
A mild pandemic has significant consequences for global output, costing the world 1.4 million lives and approximately US$330 billion in lost output

A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the "ultra" scenario with over 142.2 million people killed and a GDP loss of $US4.4 trillion.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

It's on the AP wire!!!

Group: Bird Flu Pandemic Risk Overblown

17 minutes ago
PARIS (AP) — Fears of a flu pandemic originating from the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus were overblown, the head of the World Organization for Animal Health said Thursday.

The Paris-based body — an intergovernmental organization responsible for improving animal health worldwide — has been at the forefront of global efforts to monitor and fight H5N1, which scientists have tracked because they fear it may mutate into a human flu virus that starts a pandemic.

But "the risk was overestimated," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the animal health organization, also known as the OIE.

Vallat said the H5N1 virus has proved extremely stable, despite concerns that it could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans.
"We have never seen such a stable strain," Vallat said.

(etc.)
(snipped)

_________________________



Follow the money.

Ask yourself:

300+ potential cases - not a word.

One lone article poo-pooing the threat - AP picks it up within minutes from AFP (see who AFP owners/managers are above on this thread).

What is the message?

What is the lesson??

- Extrapolation
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

The message is "Be happy for a few more minutes" :rolleyes:
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

I agree that it will only encourage many people NOT to prepare.

It would be nice to believe it and most folks will believe what fits most closely to what they want to believe.

I'll relax and eat our preps when birds and people stop dying.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

"We have never seen a virus which has been so stable for so long. Compared to other viruses, it is extremely stable, which minimises the risk of mutation" into a pandemic strain, he told reporters.
Click to expand...

How is stability being measured?
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

yes.

Only very few reassortments : Nigeria 2006,Indonesia 2007,Kurgan 2005
And then only with same serotype, similar viruses.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Maybe we can name those actual stable news:

"The media blanket" :magnify:
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

I don't get the logic in the resevoir model Vallat is using. Would it be something like:

All willd birds fly through Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria each season.

Only in Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria can a wild bird contract H5N1.

Hence eradicating H5N1 in Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria will stop its spread.

Surely this is fallacious, and downright misleading.

I'm also very surprise that Dr. N's commentary did not adress the "stable" comment made by Vallat, given the mass of genetic work done to show mutation of the virus.

J.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Should we not, then, be seeing a clarification by Vallet?

Even if this is a language or reporting error, this is a serious communications problem.

The public has been told that the virus mutates rapidly, and hence it should fear it and spend billions to prepare for its most lethal form. However, this statement, regardless of the origin of the error or the fault of the parties, says to the public not to worry because the virus is not changing rapidly and we have time to eradicate it.

Surely the message should be clarified.

J.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

it does mutate rapidly, just more stable than expected some years ago.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Vallet has been a strong voice in the past, search Vallet on this site.

Stable from french to english surely means, nothing unexpected is happening.

SNowy
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

cartski said:
Should we not, then, be seeing a clarification by Vallet?

Even if this is a language or reporting error, this is a serious communications problem.

The public has been told that the virus mutates rapidly, and hence it should fear it and spend billions to prepare for its most lethal form. However, this statement, regardless of the origin of the error or the fault of the parties, says to the public not to worry because the virus is not changing rapidly and we have time to eradicate it.

Surely the message should be clarified.

J.
Click to expand...
Mutation in WHO-speak = reassortment.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

I'm sorry, but I don't understand this. "Stable" and "rapid" seem to be opposites to me.

Do you mean:

"it does mutate rapidly, just not as rapidly as we expected years ago"

Or do you mean

"it did mutate rapidly, but now it mutates slowly"

If this virus is "stable", why should we be worried about H2H? The press report is then correct - we have sufficient time to eradicate it, or at least, severly constrain it.

J.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Here's how it is being reported by
MSNBC News Services
updated 9:45 a.m. ET, Thurs., Jan. 10, 2008


PARIS - Fears of a flu pandemic originating from the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus were overblown, the head of the World Organization for Animal Health said Thursday.
The Paris-based body — an intergovernmental organization responsible for improving animal health worldwide — has been at the forefront of global efforts to monitor and fight H5N1, which scientists have tracked because they fear it may mutate into a human flu virus that starts a pandemic.
But "the risk was overestimated," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the animal health organization, also known as the OIE.
Vallat said the H5N1 virus has proved extremely stable, despite concerns that it could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans.
"We have never seen such a stable strain," Vallat said.
He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof.
"It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters

Notice how the past tense "was" is being used, adding to the sense of this not being a serious present concern. Also, he states that concerns about an H5N1 pandemic being imminent are not scientific. Pretty strong statement, if you ask me. Anyone reading this would conclude that there is nothing to be worried about.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

all influenza mutates rapidly, that's why we are concerned
and why it caused pandemics and waves.
In 2005,2006 there was big dynamic with new reassortments,
new strains emerging. Few reassortment since then outside China.
There was some fear, that H5N1 could have reassorted with European or African or Indonesian non-H5N1 viruses.
Apparantly this didn't happen.
 
Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

Re: Whew - we can all go home now.....

gsgs said:
all influenza mutates rapidly, that's why we are concerned
and why it caused pandemics and waves.
In 2005,2006 there was big dynamic with new reassortments,
new strains emerging. Few reassortment since then outside China.
There was some fear, that H5N1 could have reassorted with European or African or Indonesian non-H5N1 viruses.
Apparantly this didn't happen.
Click to expand...
Please.
WHO is looking for reassortment with HUMAN flu genes, which has never happened for H5N1. Therefore it is "stable".
When it was done in the lab by the CDC, nothing interesting happened then either.
Consequently, WHO, the CDC, and consultants are not as interested in H5N1 becausen they are in a lose / lose situation (no pandemic or a pandemic without reassortment).
 
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