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UK: 607 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 112 confirmed fatalities (244 reported fatalities) due to influenza

Re: UK: 112 confirmed fatalities (244 reported fatalities) due to influenza

.
* In Europe, most countries are continuing to report increasing influenza activity, primarily associated with influenza A H1N1 (2009). In the USA influenza activity has decreased slightly but continued to increase in Canada. In North America influenza A (H3N2) and B viruses have been predominant.

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1287147913271


Note the excellent presentation and summary in the pdf file of "HPA Weekly National Influenza Graphs":

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1284475036543

J.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

I would like to remind that a preliminary study about antigenicity of the most recent European Region influenza virus (A and B) isolates is available at: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158753 - http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158751

Some of the December 2010 UK isolates denoted a somewhat reduced affinity toward antibodies elicited by vaccines seed.

A commentary to this surveillance report is eagerly awaited.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Based on the media reports, how many of the 254 UK deaths did or did not have a flu shot?

J.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

I would like to remind that a preliminary study about antigenicity of the most recent European Region influenza virus (A and B) isolates is available at: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158753 - http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158751

Some of the December 2010 UK isolates denoted a somewhat reduced affinity toward antibodies elicited by vaccines seed.

A commentary to this surveillance report is eagerly awaited.

If I understood the Mill Hill report correctly, they knew there was a problem with the B Victoria strain back in September.
In the Victoria-lineage many viruses yielded reduced titres with anti-sera raised against the egg-grown vaccine virus.

100 Samples taken
74 were propagated

10 had <2 fold reduction
19 had 4 fold reduction
45 had >8 fold reduction

A couple of those with >8 fold:
Ukraine, March, 12 were sampled, 12 propageted, 12 had >8 fold
S. Africa, June: 6, 6, 6, July: 4,4,4 then August: 3,3,3

http://www.nimr.mrc.ac.uk/documents/...t-sep-2010.pdf
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Total deaths (England and Wales) from all causes has now been running at 669 deaths per week above the 5 year average over the last 5 weeks. That's 6.4% above the 5 year average.

See http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D6157.xls

dc3a.png

And http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1287147913271

dc3u.png

In week 1, an estimated 12,644 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics). This is increased from 11,484 in week 51 and remains above the upper limit of expected levels for this time of year (figure 9). Potential factors for this excess include recent cold weather and circulating respiratory viruses. It should be noted that closures of registry offices in the Christmas/New Year period results in a dip and subsequent increase in death registrations.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Based on the media reports, how many of the 254 UK deaths did or did not have a flu shot?

J.

I don't know about the media reports, but the official line is;

"Of cases with available information on immunisation history, 59 of 71 (83%) cases had not received the 2010/11 trivalent influenza vaccine this season. Thirty-eight of 40 cases with available information had not received the monovalent pandemic influenza vaccine last season."

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1294740008526
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

The converse of those statements gives me some concern. 12 of 71 (17%) had received the trivalent vaccine and 2 of 40 (5%) had received the monovalent vaccine last year. That means that the vaccine not only did not prevent 14 people from getting sick, it didn't even protect them from death.

Something else has been bothering me as well. The standard recommendation in the UK is that people should get the vaccine even though they claim that the epidemic has begun to subside. Doesn't it take up to 4 weeks for vaccine immunity to be achieved? Do they know what happens if someone is infected during that period? It seems that this recommendation is being used mostly to calm people by giving them "something to do" so they don't feel helpless.
I don't know about the media reports, but the official line is;

"Of cases with available information on immunisation history, 59 of 71 (83%) cases had not received the 2010/11 trivalent influenza vaccine this season. Thirty-eight of 40 cases with available information had not received the monovalent pandemic influenza vaccine last season."

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1294740008526
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Swine flu hits young Teesside school pupils


TWO children from the same primary school have battled the potentially deadly swine flu virus.

But medics said today that there has been a ?sustained reduction? in the number of people in the region who were seriously ill with the illness.

Two pupils from Stranton Primary School, in Hartlepool, have received hospital treatment after being diagnosed with swine flu.

The pair - who are believed to be five and seven and are not related - were diagnosed with the illness over the weekend.

One of the children is now home after receiving hospital

care, the Southburn Terrace school?s headteacher Neil Nottingham said.

The other was expected to be discharged from hospital either yesterday or today.

Mr Nottingham said the school was open as usual.

Read More http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/t...e-school-pupils-84229-28030355/#ixzz1BfaGMSCP
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Two weeks is the time that is the official requirement for protection, but the immune response development goes on for a couple of weeks beyond that.

I am more concerned about the careful semantics - because the way it is written could hide the number of people who didn't get vaccinated this year but DID last year. Nor is there any information on how many people may have suffered swine flu last year i.e overall the numbers of vaccine failures or loss of protection from last year to this could be significantly higher, as they have seperated out these two groups - and I also struggle to understand why information is 'unavailable' as any vaccination at a GP surgery should be recorded on thier medical records electronically.

Rightly, there may be a concern not to highlight vaccine failure or spark fear in the midst of this outbreak if the numbers are uncomfortable - there is enough of an issue with people believing that vaccination is not worthwhile or doesnt work as it is. However, the answer to this is better education in the longer term, otherwise this mistrust will persist.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Source: http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/local/swine_flu_claims_life_of_girl_in_fall_horror_1_2951368

Swine flu claims life of girl in fall horror

By Elizabeth Broughton
Published on Fri Jan 21 10:56:19 GMT 2011


A POPULAR young woman battling horrific injuries died after her body was unable to fight off the killer swine flu virus.


Beth Davies died last Thursday at Blackpool Victoria Hospital, just days after spending her 24th birthday critically ill

She is the first reported victim of swine flu on the Fylde Coast.

more...
 
Last edited:
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Yes, there is more from the HPA on the immune response:

"After immunisation, antibody levels may take up to 10 to 14 days to reach protective levels. While influenza activity is not usually significant before the middle of November, the influenza season can start early (as it did for example in 2003?04), and therefore the ideal time for immunisation is between September and early November."

http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh.../@dh/@en/documents/digitalasset/dh_118770.pdf

But note figure 19.3 in that document - the diagram makes it appear that more than one shot is needed if a member in a certain group has never before received a shot - the "monovalent" / "trivalent" distinction is confusing nomenclature for social marketing, IMO.

The paragraph before clarifies that the HPA is speaking about fatal cases, and its also interesting for comparison:

"Up to 19 January 2011, 254 fatal influenza cases from across the UK have been reported to the HPA, including 165 cases from England. Further epidemiological information on cases is available on 214 of these cases. ...

The leading reported clinical risk factors for those with information were underlying respiratory disease including asthma (n=29) and neurological disease (n=15).

Of cases with available information on immunisation history, 59 of 71 (83%) cases had not received the 2010/11 trivalent influenza vaccine this season. Thirty-eight of 40 cases with available information had not received the monovalent pandemic influenza vaccine last season."

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1294740008526

So the data gathering is not that good - only (71+40)/254 = 43.7% have any information about vaccine, including the negative info about not having had a shot. And the clinical risk factor sample sizes are dismal - can we assume that the vast majority of fatal cases has no underlying risk factors? I would hope that the quality of the information improves in subsequent reports about the outbreak when more time is available to gather and compile stats.

Maybe someone should develop an surveymonkey app for influenza.

J.
 
Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

After re-reading this article and all of the posts on the thread, it appears that extending the Christmas vacation for a week so that the schools and daycare operations could remain closed to students, might positively affect the outcome of this flu wave.

"Young children have overtaken those aged five to 14 after rates dropped among older children because of the school holidays."

The teachers and administrators could use that week to administer some work at home project(s). While vaccines are 70% effective in the best case scenario, staying away from people who are sick with flu is 100% effective. Of course, the closure can be extended a week at a time pending the disease pattern.

I know the arguments against school closure: 1) It does not decrease disease, it only flattens the curve 2) The schools are an effective "baby sitting" operation and working parents will not go to work if the schools are closed.

As to #1 - Apparently the case load for the hospitals and health care workers is straining, a flattened curve will give an opportunity for better health care delivery

As to #2 - Parents are very resourceful. They can use sick time, vacation time, grandparents, and/or work from home.

The Population Chart for the UK appears to show that the range for children aged 3 - 15 years is low as a percentage of the total population.

Doesn't it make sense to protect this vulnerable age group?

I know this is not a popular idea amongst government planners, but at FluTrackers we operate this site as parents.


:)


Please see:

CDC - School Closure & Student Contact Patterns Study - Reactive School Closures May Reduce Transmission of Infection
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

From ECDC: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/activities...=512ff74f-77d4-4ad8-b6d6-bf0f23083f30&ID=1001

(...) in spite of a declining prevalence of antibodies against influenza A(H1N1)2009 observed through serological surveys there is some partial herd immunity which should protect Norway from a more severe scenario.

(...) This means that in all likelihood there is a high level of immunity in the Norwegian population despite the uncertainties regarding the duration of immunity conferred by one dose of the Pandemrix vaccine.

(...)

(IOH: I think this development deserves a bit more attention since it is the first time that a serological survey would demonstrated a waning immunity in people received monovalent pandemic vaccine.)
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

From ECDC: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/activities...=512ff74f-77d4-4ad8-b6d6-bf0f23083f30&ID=1001


(IOH: I think this development deserves a bit more attention since it is the first time that a serological survey would demonstrated a waning immunity in people received monovalent pandemic vaccine.)
[/B]

First time? surely they've previously studied the immunity levels over time? It's not that the immunity is waning that is surprising, but by how little the immunity is assumed to diminish in the prose below. It's an interesting and perhaps suspect logic turn, since they previously stated that they didn't have sufficient doses of A vaccine this year for the general population.

But how is this relevant to the UK?

J.

"The report also mentions that the stores of seasonal vaccine in Norway are only sufficient to cover those in risk groups and that it will not be possible to obtain more quantities of vaccine to cover people beyond these groups. As a consequence of this, in case they need to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population they would need to use the specific pandemic vaccine (Pandemrix). This vaccine does not provide protection against type B influenza, which is believed to be the predominant flu virus this season.

...

The report notes that in comparison to most other countries in Europe, Norway, Sweden and Finland are in a different situation. This is due to both the high vaccine coverage that was achieved during the 2009/10 influenza season in addition to the large number of people that were infected by the virus. This means that in all likelihood there is a high level of immunity in the Norwegian population despite the uncertainties regarding the duration of immunity conferred by one dose of the Pandemrix vaccine. Hence there should be significantly fewer sick as a result of infection with A(H1N1)2009 virus than in 2009/2010, the report states."
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

What about genetic changes that indicate low reactors?
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

BeWell,
There were a total of 42 UK submissions recently and only 2 had the mutations around position 515 that are associated with low reactors. There were 5 more from England submitted today that I haven't looked at yet.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

What has been increasing quite rapidly is the reported incidence of "the H275Y mutation which confers resistance to the antiviral drug oseltamivir"

Looking at the data from this thread; http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=156296

From week 40-51; 3 of 405 samples had H275Y (0.74%)
From weeks 52-3; 24 of 596 samples had H275Y (4.0%)
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Thank you, Sharon and Mixin. From reading Niman's comments on RL and NS1's comments here and elsewhere, it seemed as though more had low reactors, trying struggling to get a grasp of it as usual.
 
Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Re: UK: 254 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

Swine flu claims another victim as East Yorkshire death toll reaches 11


Another person in East Yorkshire has died from swine flu.

The death of the man, who had underlying health problems, means 11 people have now died in Hull and the East Riding's main hospitals after being admitted with symptoms of the virus.

A total of 112 people have been admitted to Hull Royal Infirmary or Castle Hill Hospital in Cottingham with flu, including 86 who had swine flu.

Of the 11 people who died, 10 had underlying health problems.

But one had no prior health issues, and swine flu was said to have "contributed" to their death.

The trust said five of the people who died in the hospitals were women and six were men, but none were children.

Phil Morley, chief executive at Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust, which runs the hospitals, said: "It is a reminder to us all that even in this day of great technology and the best health care we have ever had in the UK, a virus can still be deadly.

"Every single one of those deaths is a tragedy for the families.

"People don't think flu is a death sentence.

"But it can be.

"The best medicine is rendered powerless in the face of a virus."


http://www.thisishullandeastriding....l-hits-11/article-3131498-detail/article.html
 
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