• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Just check the chronology.
The original M**flu-reassortment is more likely to have happened in Mexico
than in California. First outbreaks were in Mexico, the Mexican sequences have fewer mutations.
Remember all the travelers coming from Cancun with flu ?
No strains from California or elsewhere found to travel into Mexico.
Mexican government has formed a commission to investigate LaGloria, which they
themselves consider the likely origin.

With birdflu, Fujian,Qinghai etc. it's even more uncertain. You can't ask wild birds
where they came from. The Qinghai reassortment, did it happen at Qinghai-lake ?
The Indonesian strain, didn't it come from China or Vietnam ?
It's called after the location of the first outbreaks.
Except Spanish flu, which was just because the Spanish king got it or such
while war-countries had censorship.
Hongkong flu,Asian flu,Russian flu, Brisbane-strain, Fujian H3N2,

suppose they had called it in 1918 novel-flu.
Then novel-novel flu in 1977 and now novel-novel-novel flu ??!?!?
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
first isolate 11.March, M**ico
CA-sequences not original.

A/M**ico/4115
A/M**ico/InDRE4487

remember niman discussing, why the Fujian strain were the Fujian strain
despite China complaining
Click to expand...
Claifornia isolates were also in March:

##EpifluData-START##
Isolate A/California/05/2009
Subtype H1N1
Segment_name HA
Host_gender F
Host_age 9
Passage_history C1
Adamantane_resistance resistant
Zanamivir_resistance sensitive
Oseltamivir_resistance sensitive
Country USA
State/Province California state
Collection_day 30
Collection_month 3
Collection_year 2009
EPI_accession EPI176493
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
Just check the chronology.
The original M**flu-reassortment is more likely to have happened in Mexico
than in California. First outbreaks were in Mexico, the Mexican sequences have fewer mutations.
Remember all the travelers coming from Cancun with flu ?
No strains from California or elsewhere found to travel into Mexico.
Mexican government has formed a commission to investigate LaGloria, which they
themselves consider the likely origin.

With birdflu, Fujian,Qinghai etc. it's even more uncertain. You can't ask wild birds
where they came from. The Qinghai reassortment, did it happen at Qinghai-lake ?
The Indonesian strain, didn't it come from China or Vietnam ?
It's called after the location of the first outbreaks.
Except Spanish flu, which was just because the Spanish king got it or such
while war-countries had censorship.
Hongkong flu,Asian flu,Russian flu, Brisbane-strain, Fujian H3N2,

suppose they had called it in 1918 novel-flu.
Then novel-novel flu in 1977 and now novel-novel-novel flu ??!?!?
Click to expand...
The above names refer to new isolates that were easily traced to a location and were clearly the origin. For the human swine H1N1, the sequences in Mexico and California are virtually identical and isolated a few weeks apart in March. The true origin for this new sub-clade was swine, and the original swine isolates havent been identifed. The closest match was in the isolates from swine in Alberta.

As far as reassortment is concerned, there is evidence for the reassortment happening in Thailand prior to North America.

Thus, the evidence for Mexico is quite murkey, and no one is calling it Mexican flu.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

could you please point me to the evidence for reassortment in Thailand ?


CA-sequences have mutations and are from late March
reports of widespread ILI in Mex and deaths earlier
Cancun the origin of worldwide spread of the 11-marker-virus
onset of first confirmed case in Mex = 11.Mar



it was first called M**ican flu, but Mexico protested and WHO
changed it to swine flu, then H1N1 (which is ambiguous)
I anticipate other countries protesting in future and flu-strains
will get cryptic names which will confuse reporters.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Siegf., #76:
"The CDC's current novel H1N1 testing recommendation is broad, simply saying:

"Clinicians should test persons for the novel influenza (H1N1) virus if they have an acute febrile respiratory illness or sepsis-like syndrome."


The second one does not resemble an mild, nor moderate symptome.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
could you please point me to the evidence for reassortment in Thailand ?


CA-sequences have mutations and are from late March
reports of widespread ILI in Mex and deaths earlier
Cancun the origin of worldwide spread of the 11-marker-virus
onset of first confirmed case in Mex = 11.Mar



it was first called M**ican flu, but Mexico protested and WHO
changed it to swine flu, then H1N1 (which is ambiguous)
I anticipate other countries protesting in future and flu-strains
will get cryptic names which will confuse reporters.
Click to expand...

A further human case of swine influenza,
A/Thailand/271/2005, contains genes from both North
American and Eurasian swine influenza lineages (​
​
​
​
29)
indicating previous reassortment between these two swine​

virus lineages.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/rapidpdf/1176225v1.pdf
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
could you please point me to the evidence for reassortment in Thailand ?


CA-sequences have mutations and are from late March
reports of widespread ILI in Mex and deaths earlier
Cancun the origin of worldwide spread of the 11-marker-virus
onset of first confirmed case in Mex = 11.Mar



it was first called M**ican flu, but Mexico protested and WHO
changed it to swine flu, then H1N1 (which is ambiguous)
I anticipate other countries protesting in future and flu-strains
will get cryptic names which will confuse reporters.
Click to expand...
Reality check:

Given the history of reassortment events of swine
influenza, it is likely that additional reassortant viruses have
emerged but have not been sampled. The poor surveillance
for swine influenza viruses and the observation that the
closest ancestral gene for each of the eight gene segments is
of swine origin suggests that this virus might have been
circulating undetected among swine herds somewhere in the
world. Several scenarios exist, including reassortment in Asia
or the Americas, for the events that have led to the genesis of
the 2009 A(H1N1) virus. Where the reassortment event(s)​
most likely happened is currently unclear.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/rapidpdf/1176225v1.pdf
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

the same holds for the Qinghai-strain
(even more, since swine don't fly, usually)
yet you call it Qinghai-strain.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
we had this before. It's a totally different strain and unrelated to M**flu.
Click to expand...
See reality check above. The database on swne is VERY small. No one can say of the swine sequences most closley related to the swine in humans is from swine in Mexico, United States, or Canada (or some country in Central or South America).

No one is calling it Mexican flu, because its origins remain murkey.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
the same holds for the Qinghai-strain
(even more, since swine don't fly, usually)
yet you call it Qinghai-strain.
Click to expand...
The Qinghai strain is an easy call. Most who seriously study the evolution of infleunza viruses use phylogenetic analysis to trace origins. The Qinghai strain is clade 2.2 and it burst onto the scene at Qinghai Lake in May, 2005. The clade 2.2 subsequently spread to more than 50 countries west of China. None of these countries had previously reported Asian H5N1, and ALL isoaltes in poultry, wild birds, and humans were clade 2.2 (Qinghai strain).
'
The outbreak at Qinhai Lake was massive and involved long range migratory birds, which then transported and transmitted the virus. The Qinghai strain, like the Fujian strain (clade 2.3) was a VERY easy call and the strain was named after the isolates from BIRDS. The first reported human cases involving Qinghai 2.2 were in Turkey. The H5N1 wasn't called the Turkey strain, it was called the Qinghai strain (or clade 2.2).

The swine H1N1 circling the globe originated in SWINE. All 8 gene segements had been seen in swine previously, but the most closely swine sequences were easily those identified in Alberta, Canada. However, it is likely that even closer sequences are in swine elesewhere, which is why no one is calling this the Mexican strain, other than those who don't understand its origins.

The swine elsewhere are most likely in the Americas, but there are NO public sequences linking the strain to Mexica swine.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

the reason why it isn't called M**flu is the intervention of Mexico,
not the scientific evidence.
Qinghai lake unlikely is the origin of the strain since there are 4 markers at Qinghai lake which are not seen elsewhere.

We have no outbreak in swine in M**flu (except Alberty months later
with many mutations) so we should name it after the first outbreak in humans,
which was in Mexico. You won't want to name 1918 flu after the (unknown) location of
the first outbreak of that strain in birds.


let's put this discussion to
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101180
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
the reason why it isn't called M**flu is the intervention of Mexico,
not the scientific evidence.
Qinghai lake unlikely is the origin of the strain since there are 4 markers at Qinghai lake which are not seen elsewhere.

We have no outbreak in swine in M**flu (except Alberty months later
with many mutations) so we should name it after the first outbreak in humans,
which was in Mexico. You won't want to name 1918 flu after the (unknown) location of
the first outbreak of that strain in birds.


let's put this discussion to
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101180
Click to expand...
Phylogenetic analysis is used to name strains. The swine origin has yet to be identified.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

gsgs said:
the reason why it isn't called M**flu is the intervention of Mexico,
not the scientific evidence.
Qinghai lake unlikely is the origin of the strain since there are 4 markers at Qinghai lake which are not seen elsewhere.

We have no outbreak in swine in M**flu (except Alberty months later
with many mutations) so we should name it after the first outbreak in humans,
which was in Mexico. You won't want to name 1918 flu after the (unknown) location of
the first outbreak of that strain in birds.


let's put this discussion to
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101180
Click to expand...
The science is quite straightforward.

At the influenza meeting in Toronto, a numerical system was announced. Thus, for H5N1 the main sub-clades of interest are clade 1, 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3 - and more recently clade 7). For H1N1 seasonal flu there were clades 2A, 2B, and 2C that were of recent interest.

Since representative isolates are used for vaccnes, the name of the virus is used, like Brisbane/59 for H1N1 and Brsibane/10 for H3N2.

For the swine H1N1, the target has been selected, and it is decidedly California:

(A/resassortant/IVR-153(A/California/07/2009 x IVR-6)(H1N1))
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

niman said:
... but there are NO public sequences linking the strain to Mexica swine.
Click to expand...

And how much of a surprise is that?

Smithfield is only the world's largest pork producer and their hog productions in Mexico crank out close to 1.5 million pigs each year. It would absolutely be in their best interest to have NO sequences linking the outbreak to their facilities.

Results would have been much more believable if their testing and the inspections had been done by teams with no monetary interest in the outcomes.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Gsgs - We are not calling the Novel H1N1 strain M*** flu. Stop it. You are deliberately provoking a confrontation.

I am not asking again.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

mixin said:
And how much of a surprise is that?

Smithfield is only the world's largest pork producer and their hog productions in Mexico crank out close to 1.5 million pigs each year. It would absolutely be in their best interest to have NO sequences linking the outbreak to their facilities.

Results would have been much more believable if their testing and the inspections had been done by teams with no monetary interest in the outcomes.
Click to expand...
It is unlikely that the swine H1N1 is limited to one location. The sequences in Alberta were very close, but far enough away to make infection of swine by a worker returning from Mexico unlikely (especially when the worker tested negative).
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Florida1 said:
Gsgs - We are not calling the Novel H1N1 strain M*** flu. Stop it. You are deliberately provoking a confrontation.

I am not asking again.
Click to expand...


so, how do you want me to call it ?
M**flu is, what Sally said.

> No I am not going to ban you
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Florida1 said:
Gsgs - We are not calling the Novel H1N1 strain M*** flu. Stop it. You are deliberately provoking a confrontation.

I am not asking again.
Click to expand...

I've got to agree with F1 on this one... Not only is it an irrelevant argument as to where this started - it's ultimately an impossibility to prove for the history books. Flu mutates/recombines/evolves, or whatever you want to call it. Todays flu will pick up markers as it travels.

What happens when it grabs something out of an Egyptian pig coinfected with H5N1? We going to call it the Egypto-Mexicali Flying Pig Flu?

Actually - that's not bad. When Swine Flue H1N1 merges with Bird Flu H5N1 - we can call it the Flying Pig Flu :)

Actually I don't care what it is called - but FT is probably THE most comprehensive source for information on this subject In The World. And we're publicly available to the common Joe. For simplicty & credibility sake we probably should stick to a simple scientific, and universally recognized term. What's it hurt to simply call it Swine Novel H1N1? You and Niman can still argue theory - and we all get to be awed by both of your genetic knowledge :) And everybody is happy :)
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

It will be interesting to see how things play out when a beloved hollywood star or media personality dies of this H1N1 flu.

When a full fledged severe pandemic finally hits this is what will be on the news all the time. The who's who of the dead. :(
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top