Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

[grandmother stonecoat]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Please. NYC is up to 590 confirmed cases (goes up each day its reported) and upstate NY is filling up fast.

The numbers are probably staggering. CDC has told doctors and hospitals to STOP testing for swine flu unless all of the criteria are met, so that helps keep the numbers low. Not too many doctors are checking now at our hospital and clinic. Here is CDC criteria:

Testing for 2009 Influenza A H1N1 (Swine Flu) Virus


Specimens that meet criteria #1 AND criteria #2, #3, #4, OR #5 will be tested for Novel Influenza A (H1N1).


1. Patient has influenza-like illness (ILI) consisting of:
Temperature >100F or 37.8C AND
Sore throat or Cough
AND
2. Patient is hospitalized (other acute febrile respiratory illness may substitute for ILI in hospitalized patients)
3. Patient is at high risk of severe complications from infection. Includes: pregnant women, children under the age of 5 years, adults 65 years or older, or individuals with chronic underlying medical conditions
4. Patient is at high risk of spreading infection to others including health care workers with direct patient contact or patients living in group settings
5. Patient lives in a Utah community (city or town) where novel H1N1 disease has not previously been detected and has a positive screening influenza A result (or a positive influenza test result if the test does not differentiate influenza A from B) by Rapid Test (EIA) or DFA

Grandmother Stonecoat

 

[HenryN]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

The numbers are probably staggering. CDC has told doctors and hospitals to STOP testing for swine flu unless all of the criteria are met, so that helps keep the numbers low. Not too many doctors are checking now at our hospital and clinic. Here is CDC criteria:

Testing for 2009 Influenza A H1N1 (Swine Flu) Virus


Specimens that meet criteria #1 AND criteria #2, #3, #4, OR #5 will be tested for Novel Influenza A (H1N1).


1. Patient has influenza-like illness (ILI) consisting of:
Temperature >100F or 37.8C AND
Sore throat or Cough
AND
2. Patient is hospitalized (other acute febrile respiratory illness may substitute for ILI in hospitalized patients)
3. Patient is at high risk of severe complications from infection. Includes: pregnant women, children under the age of 5 years, adults 65 years or older, or individuals with chronic underlying medical conditions
4. Patient is at high risk of spreading infection to others including health care workers with direct patient contact or patients living in group settings
5. Patient lives in a Utah community (city or town) where novel H1N1 disease has not previously been detected and has a positive screening influenza A result (or a positive influenza test result if the test does not differentiate influenza A from B) by Rapid Test (EIA) or DFA

Grandmother Stonecoat

Yes, they tried all they could do to keep the numbers down, and still ended up with a hockey stick.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

I'm just listening to TWIV35
http://www.twiv.tv/

hearing Vincent Racaniello say from NYC:
(I think) Mexflu will disappear soon in USA, I'd really surprised if there
were a summer epidemic in USA
here I think we are almost done
(TWIV35,~11min)


they also talked about the Olsen graphs and their disagreement with CDC

 

[jeanne]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

M**flu

i give. i looked on the acronym page but didn't see it. please spell it out for me.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

not allowed here.
Just name the flu after the country or region where it first emerged.
As is usual with influenza

 

[colormyquilt]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Welcome Grandmother Stonecoat. And thank you for the info from your part of the world.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

i give. i looked on the acronym page but didn't see it. please spell it out for me.

This poster insists on calling the H1N1 swine flu the Mexican flu, even though the originating swine has not been identified, and the closest swine match to date is in Alberta, Canada (and the first identified human isolate was in southern California)!

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

first isolate 11.March, M**ico
CA-sequences not original.

A/M**ico/4115
A/M**ico/InDRE4487

remember niman discussing, why the Fujian strain were the Fujian strain
despite China complaining

 

[HenryN]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

I'm just listening to TWIV35
http://www.twiv.tv/

hearing Vincent Racaniello say from NYC:
(I think) Mexflu will disappear soon in USA, I'd really surprised if there
were a summer epidemic in USA
here I think we are almost done
(TWIV35,~11min)


they also talked about the Olsen graphs and their disagreement with CDC

I heard the flu part. He thinks the real level is 10X the detected level, which is several levels beyond absurd. He will also be "surprised" if swine H1N1 doesn't peter out "soon" in the US, and he thinks swine H1N1 is over in Mexico.

It should soon be obvious how "suprised" he is.

He also thinks that media coverage of a swine pandemic is hype.

Well into the clueless beyond hope category.

It is also noteworthy that they don't understand the difference between swine and seasonal flu, which helps explain their comments.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Mexico:

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

BTW. , he also said, that WHO will probably never declare
M**flu a (full) pandemic

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

decline in Canada: (?)

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/fluwatch/08-09/w21_09/index-eng.php

 

[Diane Morin]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Donn?es plus fines pour le Qu?bec

Semaine 09-21 se terminant le 30 mai 2009

<TABLE class=contenus cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

• 90 cas positifs pour le virus de l'influenza A
• 3 cas positifs pour le virus de l'influenza B
• 0 cas positif pour le virus para-influenza 1
• 0 cas positif pour le virus para-influenza 2
• 10 cas positifs pour le virus para-influenza 3

</TD><TD>

• 0 cas positif pour le virus para-influenza 4
• 15 cas positifs pour le virus respiratoire syncytial
• 8 cas positifs pour l'ad?novirus
• 11 cas positifs pour le m?tapneumo virus humain
• 1 cas positif pour le coronavirus commun

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

[FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-2]01 : Bas St-Laurent[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]02 : Saguenay Lac-St-Jean[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]03 : Qu?bec[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]04 : Mauricie-Bois-Francs[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]05 : Estrie[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]06 : Montr?al[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]07 : Outaouais[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]08 : Abitibi-T?miscamingue[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]09 : C?te-Nord[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]10 : Nord-du-Qu?bec[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]11 : Gasp?sie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]12 : Chaudi?re-Appalaches[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]13 : Laval[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]14 : Lanaudi?re[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]15 : Laurentides[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]16 : Mont?r?gie[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]17 : Nunavik[/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-2][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]18 : Terres-Cries-de-la-Baie-James [/FONT][/SIZE]
[FONT=verdana,arial, helvetica][SIZE=-2]Point rouge (

) sur la carte =[/SIZE][/FONT]

[SIZE=-2][FONT=verdana,arial, helvetica]de 1 ? 5 tests positifs d'influenza A[/FONT][/SIZE]

[FONT=verdana,arial, helvetica][SIZE=-2]Point bleu (

) sur la carte =[/SIZE][/FONT]

[SIZE=-2][FONT=verdana,arial, helvetica]de 1 ? 5 tests positifs d'influenza B[/FONT][/SIZE]
​

</TD><TD colSpan=6>

​

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right></TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=6 td></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right width=292>

​

</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=6 td>

​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

<TABLE width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#b9cbd5 colSpan=2 height=1></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=Contenus align=left colSpan=3>
D?tails pour la semaine :
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=ContenusEspaces align=left width=250>09-21 se terminant le 30 mai 2009 </TD><TD class=ContenusEspaces align=left> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

http://www.inspq.qc.ca/dossiers/influenza/surveillance/DonneesHebdo.asp?DS=Inf&DS2=2&DS3=3&AnneeProgramme=2008-2009

 

[jeanne]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

not allowed here.
Just name the flu after the country or region where it first emerged.
As is usual with influenza

oh duh. generic ethnic flu. whatever.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

first isolate 11.March, M**ico
CA-sequences not original.

A/M**ico/4115
A/M**ico/InDRE4487

remember niman discussing, why the Fujian strain were the Fujian strain
despite China complaining

Please. The sequences in Mexico and California were virtually identical and isolates a few WEEKS apart. No one was looking for swine H1N1 in California in early March and a few weeks difference in isolation dates means nothing.
In addition, the swine seqiuences in Alberta are close and suggest sequences were widespread in swine, but not well monitored.
Fujian of 2005 evolved from Fujian isolates of 2003 and were unique and just in China.
Many call Fujian Fujian. No one calls swine H1N1 Mexican because there is only VERY weak support and many unknowns..

 

[Siegfried X]

CDC leaves the decision on whether to test up to the community and physician

CDC leaves the decision on whether to test up to the community and physician

The CDC's current novel H1N1 testing recommendation is broad, simply saying:

"Clinicians should test persons for the novel influenza (H1N1) virus if they have an acute febrile respiratory illness or sepsis-like syndrome."

If that simple sentence were followed, there would be much more testing than takes place during a normal, seasonal flu season. And that is what the data are being compared to, seasonal flu data gathered and processed through the same system, for an apples to apples comparison.

However, the CDC recognizes that the final decision is up to the physician based on guidance from the local health authorities. (Just like a normal flu season.) That makes sense since it is medical decision.

Which patients should be tested for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus?

Clinicians should test persons for the novel influenza (H1N1) virus if they have an acute febrile respiratory illness or sepsis-like syndrome. Certain groups may have atypical presentations including infants, elderly and persons with compromised immune systems. Priority for testing includes persons who 1) require hospitalization or 2) are at high-risk for severe disease (as listed above). To test for novel H1N1 influenza virus, upper respiratory specimens, such as a nasopharyngeal swab or aspirate, nasal swab plus a throat swab or nasal wash, or tracheal aspirate should be collected. Persons who perform nasal and tracheal aspirate collections on ill persons require appropriate personal protective equipment. Specimens should be sent to the state public health laboratory. Not all people with suspected novel influenza (H1N1) infection need to have the diagnosis confirmed, especially if the person resides in an affected area or if the illness is mild. Recommendations on who to test may differ by state or community. Clinicians should be aware of local guidance on testing and should use their clinical judgment in addition to this guidance for deciding when to test for novel influenza A (H1N1).

 

[gsgs]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

CDC data will be compared to data from other countries

 

[HenryN]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

CDC data will be compared to data from other countries

The countries that are just looking at airports (well beyond hopes and dreams)?

 

[dr kockosh]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Tough tests skewing swine flu figures: expert

Posted 23 minutes ago
Figures suggesting Victoria has the highest per capita rate of swine flu in the world may simply be down to Australia's tough testing regime, a University of Sydney professor says.
The latest figures from the World Health Organisation say in just two days the United States confirmed 1001 new cases of the virus, Mexico 543, and Australia 375.
Australia's tally of confirmed H1N1 cases was 1,051 last night, more than 870 of them in Victoria.
But Professor Robert Booy from the University of Sydney says the United States and Mexico are not screening suspect cases as thoroughly as Australia, and probably have more cases than have been reported.
"The truth is that Australia is probably the best in the world at detecting this influenza virus," he said.
"And so we have a tremendous bias going on; where we're finding most of our cases through good laboratory detection, and the United States and other places, they're not even testing everybody who probably have the disease," he said.
"I would be quite certain that there's ten to a hundredfold more cases in the US than are confirmed.
"So it's totally, totally, a bias of how we go about detecting disease, in that we're just so much more thorough in Australia, and we pay much more attention."
Professor Booy says it is ridiculous to blame Victoria for the spread of the virus interstate.
"Right now we need to do sensible things. Saying that students that come back should be quarantined is a good idea, because they are the ones that are the big spreaders of disease right now [but] trying to shut down the whole of commerce and business interaction is quite silly," he said.
Professor Raina MacIntyre says she is surprised that the outbreak has not been more significant in New South Wales.
"Once it starts spreading among school children, it spreads very rapidly; children excrete the virus for longer, they're more infectious, but it doesn't appear to have affected schools to the same extent in New South Wales," she said.
The Victorian Government has now scrapped a policy to shut down schools if a student contracts the virus.
According to the latest figures from the World Health Organisation there are 21,940 confirmed cases of the virus world-wide, with the death toll remaining at 125.
Tags: swine-influenza, australia, vic

seems he is telling it like it is
<!--*stop_indexing*-->

 

[HenryN]

Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Tough tests skewing swine flu figures: expert


"I would be quite certain that there's ten to a hundredfold more cases in the US than are confirmed.
"So it's totally, totally, a bias of how we go about detecting disease, in that we're just so much more thorough in Australia, and we pay much more attention."


seems he is telling it like it is
<!--*stop_indexing*-->

Actually, the numbers in the US are likely to be much more than 10-100X more. Earlier I had posted the piece from Revere, but it was pulled because I mentioned the location (which has a VERY high rate of swine H1N1). The point of the piece however was the fact that it looked like all members of his family were infected (attack rate of 100%) as were many of the children at the day care center of his grandchildren, but NONE were reported. Even though there were six family members with symptoms, he couldn't say for certain that any were confrmed because only one was tested and was influenza A positive (although it is virtually certain that all are H1N1 positive).

The number of cases in the US is in the millions, but the number confirmed is in the thousands. Similarly, most countries outside of North America are focused on screening airline passengers and ignoring the local community spread, whch is EXTENSIVE becasue the transission of the H1N1 is EFFICIENT and SUSTAINED, "WHO speak" notwithstanding.