A Study of Outbreak of Swine Flu (H1N1) in
North - West Zone of Rajasthan (Current Status- 2015)
Surendra Kumar
Journal of The Association of Physicians of India ■ Vol. 64 ■ July 2016
http://www.japi.org/july_2016/07_oa_a_study_of_outbreak.pdf
Absract
Background: The outbreak of H1N1 virus had previously reported in India
during 2009 flu pandemic. In 2015, the outbreak became widespread
throughout India. The states of Gujarat and Rajasthan are severely
effected. We studied an outbreak of H1N1 Virus in north-west zone of
Rajasthan 2015.
Objective: To demonstrate the current epidemiological scenario of swine
flu (H1N1) in north-west zone of Rajasthan with different demographic
factors.
Methods: We screened total 6390 patients. Out of them 1405 samples of
suspected cases collected from different parts of north-west Rajasthan
and analyzed by RT-PCR at Sardar Patel Medical College, Bikaner.
Results: A total of 1405 samples examined during three and half months
period, out of which 181 cases found positive for H1N1. Out of them 85
(46.97%) males and 96 (53.03%) females (M:F=1:1.13). Most patients (116)
were in age group 21-50 years which was 64.09% of total positive cases
(Mean age=37.09 ? 16.07years). The mean time of onset of symptoms
to hospitalization was 5.12 ? 3.38 days. Only 11.05% patients presented
within 48 hours whereas 64.09% presented between 3-5 days of onset
of symptoms. 109 (60.22%) patients were from rural areas, whereas 72
(39.77%) belonged to urban areas. Total 13 (7.18%) deaths occurred
among positive cases. 69.23% deaths were recorded in the age group of
25 to 50 years. The mean age of death being 44.69 years. Females had
significant higher mortality (9 females out of 13 deaths). 76.92% died
within 3 days of hospitalization, despite of starting Oseltamivir in a dose
of 150 mg/bd on the day of admission. 84.61% of the patients who died
had one or more risk factors. Bilateral pneumonia was observed in all the
13 patients and MODS in 2 patients.
Conclusions: With the above observation of swine flu trend it is likely
that incidence is more in young to middle age group, majority of them
having no risk factors, should form the target of future studies. However
fatality is highest in patients with co-morbid condition or predisposing
risk factors need to vaccinate this group should form a basis on which
future directions and interventions have to be built up to reduce the
morbidity and mortality. Females have slightly increased susceptibility
for infection M:F=1:1.13). but mortality is much higher in this sex group.
More patients belong to rural areas reflecting the need of creating public
awareness especially in rural areas at primary health centre level and
where illiteracy is common and crowded urban areas to present early
at screening centres, so future outbreak can be prevent. The in-hospital
mortality of 7.18% despite of starting Oseltamivir has raised concern
about identifying the so called ?Rapid Progressors? [76.92% died within
3 days of hospitalization]. Despite of all mortality is less in north-west
zone as compared to rest of Rajasthan
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