Re: Igor- Hurricane WARNING issued for Bermuda - Conditons on Bermuda are expected to deteriorate this evening
Re: Igor- Hurricane WARNING issued for Bermuda - Conditons on Bermuda are expected to deteriorate this evening
Meteo Canada
<!-- CONTENT TITLE BEGINS | DEBUT DU TITRE DU CONTENU -->Tropical Cyclone Information Statements <!-- CONTENT TITLE ENDS | FIN DU TITRE DU CONTENU -->
<!-- contents read from bulletin: ACC-WO31HX3019175633 -->
WOCN31 CWHX 191800
</PRE>
Hurricane igor information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Sunday
19 September 2010.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
...Igor battering Bermuda...Expected to cross the Grand Banks and
Give heavy rain to Newfoundland on Tuesday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane igor was located near latitude 30.8 N
And longitude 65.7 W... About 95 nautical miles or 185 km
South southwest of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 75 knots... 139 km/h... And central pressure at 952
MB. Igor is moving north at 14 knots... 26 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 19 3.00 PM 30.8N 65.7W 952 75 139
Sep 20 3.00 AM 33.5N 64.6W 949 75 139
Sep 20 3.00 PM 37.1N 62.4W 949 75 139 transitioning
Sep 21 3.00 AM 41.1N 57.8W 949 75 139 transitioning
Sep 21 3.00 PM 44.7N 52.8W 951 70 130 post-tropical
Sep 22 3.00 AM 48.1N 47.3W 955 65 120 post-tropical
Sep 22 3.00 PM 50.9N 43.2W 960 60 111 post-tropical
Sep 23 3.00 AM 52.8N 40.0W 964 55 102 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
While the centre of igor is expected to pass well southeast of the
Avalon Peninsula later on Tuesday, it is expected to spread heavy
rain across much of the province during the day. In addition, a
trough of low pressure unrelated to igor will cross Newfoundland on
Monday and Monday night and spread periods of rain to much of the
province. The nlwo has issued rainfall warnings for parts of
Southern Newfoundland associated with this trough. On Tuesday this
trough is expected to interact with the moisture from igor and
intensify the heavy rain over much of Newfoundland. Total potential
rainfall from these systems could generally run from 50 to 100
millimeters, with local amounts possibly exceeding 150 millimetres
On Tuesday. Specific details on the extent and amount of rainfall
For Newfoundland will be available with the 5:00 AM NDT forecast on
Monday.
In addition, wind gusts possibly exceeding 90 km/h could also affect
parts of the Avalon Peninsula and eastern nefoundland on Tuesday.
Long period swells of up to 2 to 3 metres spreading out ahead of
Igor will continue to affect the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
And southern-facing coastlines of Newfoundland for the next several
days.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force winds are possible to the right of igor's track as
It moves across the Southeastern Grand Banks on Tuesday. Gale force
winds are expected to extend well outward into all quadrants
surrounding igor as it passes on Tuesday. Gale warnings have
Already been issued for southern slope waters as gales ahead of
igor's very large wind field could impact these regions by late
Monday afteroon or evening. Any additional marine wind warnings
Will likely be issued with the 3:00 AM marine forecast on Monday.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Latest satellite imagery still show igor as a large hurricane with
good outflow to the north and west. However, its eye is obscured by
central dense overcast and water vapour imagery indicates some dry
air wrapping into the system. An ssmi microwave pass from this
morning indicated partial erosion of igor's southern eyewall, and
The most recent radar imagery from Bermuda seems to show this as
well. Despite this, igor will remain over 28+c sst's and in a low
shear environment for the next 12 to 24 hours and thus is forecast
To maintain its intensity for the time being.
Observational data continue to show that igor has a very large wind
field, with gale force winds extending up to 300 NM outward from the
storm centre.
B. Prognostic
No significant change from previous track or intensity forecast
philosophy. Igor is currently moving northward but is expected to
turn toward the northeast in the next 24 to 36 hours as it begins to
round the edge of a strong mid-atmospheric ridge. Beyond that a
shortwave from the Great Lakes will round the base of a large upper
low over Qu?bec and begin to accelerate igor northeastward. Most
guidance agrees with this general scenario. Most deterministic
Models also depict a significant interaction between transitioning
post-tropical igor and the short wave over Newfoundland in
The 36 to 48 hour time frame.
Igor will remain over very warm sst's and favorable shear conditions
for at least another 12 to 24 hours. Then shear is forecast to
increase and gradual weakening of igor is expected beyond the 36
Hour time period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams show extra-tropical transition
Beginning later on Monday, although most of the models are
Suggesting that the transition process will be slow. The timing of
this transition, specifically how quickly igor's rainfall pattern
will become asymmetrical and shift to left of track, could
Come into play with the short wave interaction over Newfoundland
On Tuesday. This will be the main factor determining the rainfall
impacts on the province.
C. Public weather
See above. The main public forecast challenge will be the rain
impacts for Newfoundland on Tuesday. This will depend considerably
On the track and rate of post-tropical transition of igor and the
timing of the interaction with the pre-existing short wave trough
crossing that region Monday night and Tuesday.
D. Marine weather
See above. In addition, some long range models are indicating a
Major post-igor development to the east of Newfoundland which may
develop Major wave activity and significant storm surge for for
northeast coast and the east coast for Tuesday into Wednesday. The
tidal range will also be a bit larger than normal during this
Period..But will not be perigean spring tides.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
19/18Z 300 250 200 300 150 130 120 150 80 70 70 60
20/06Z 300 250 200 270 150 140 115 150 80 65 50 50
20/18Z 305 280 200 250 150 150 115 130 80 80 50 40
21/06Z 320 310 205 250 150 150 115 100 75 75 50 30
21/18Z 335 335 220 250 150 150 110 100 70 70 20 15
22/06Z 350 350 240 250 160 160 110 90 30 30 15 5
22/18Z 355 355 270 250 170 170 110 100 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 365 365 320 270 180 180 110 110 0 0 0 0
End borgel
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
