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Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

I found quite a few papers related to avian influenza in mice and posted some here:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=203315
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=203318
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=204009
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=204010
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=204012
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=204013
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=204014

It seems that mice provide a good model for human infection of avian influenza.


I have frequently mentioned rodents as a potential vector to rule out.

There is some precedent here. Whilst this particular species is not resident in China, it does show that rats could be a vector. I dont know if all species of rats or only some have dual sialic acid receptors, but it must be worth looking at?
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

I think only the first and third studies involve wild mice i.e non-specially adapted or genetically altered mice / viruses for study purposes.

Mice used in mouse model studies are usually specially bred for susceptibility and/or the virus used is adapted to allow infectivity in mice
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Lately, I've been thinking about La Gloria, Mexico. 《edited》

The information around the origination of the 2009 H1N1 event is sparse and usually starts with the Mexico City events, identification in the US, and the rapid spread around the world.

There was speculation the disease originated in La Rosa, Mexico in February -
1-2 months before the Mexico City fatalities that heralded something unusual was going on and 2-3 months before standard surveillance picked up cases in the US.

What happened in La Rosa? What are the epidemiological and genetic findings in humans? in nearby poultry and pigs? Did the disease rapidly spread through the town? Why didn't it reach other areas quickly? Or did it? Were there epidemics in the surrounding cities and towns before making it's way to Mexico City?
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

The events behind the emersion of the h1pdm09 virus had not been clarified and perhaps it will never.

At the time the virus was causing illness in humans it was already 'humanized', and no further adaptation were needed in order to sustain its spread h2h, with large community outbreaks.

The animal reservoir was never identified with certainty, even though the virus was of swine origin and its ancestors circulated for decades without trouble for humans (and pigs).

Some circumstantial records of pigs die-off in Mexican farms were never substantiated by independent investigations, and overall the interest at the time was almost totally focused on human illness and pandemic preparedness.

The surface antigen was similar to a seasonal strain circulating in the first half of XX century so that older people would have likely had some degree of immunity and the youngersters were partially covered by heterotypic immunity from current H1 strains, although with some limitations.

The pandemic was not this great deal in terms of morbidity and mortality if compared with other pandemic of XX century (1918, 57, 68).

H7N9 is an avian virus, although with some mammalian genetic signature. Clearly it needs more adaptation or mutations, even though the genetic constellation is new and a different behaviour with respect all other AIV cannot be discounted.

It is important what is doing on the ground: how many people remain infected per every new infection (R0), the susceptible population etc.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

There was speculation the disease originated in La Rosa, Mexico in February

Could you be thinking of La Gloria in Veracruz, curiosity? I think there was one positive sample there in a child who recovered just fine, as did the earliest cases found by the Navy here in CA. The two children found there got the new flu in late March.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5815a5.htm

The confirmed 7 deaths in Mexico City were never explained as far as why the outcome was so bad, as far as anything being different about the virus itself.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

There was a lot of media hype in 2009 looking for patient "Zero", and the single confirmed child in La Gloria fed the media frenzy. As Giuseppe notes, the region of origin is uncertain as is the timing of the first case of H1N1 pdm09.

For those interested in reading how the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was identified and tracked here at FluTrackers, read this thread -

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=99635

Given what we know about the distribution of the current cases of H7N9, this will be another novel outbreak where the origin can not be identified.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

the first identified case was a baby from St.Louís Potosi, ~Feb.20,2009, but no sequences
are available from her. The La-Gloria virus was already a bit different and afair we concluded
that La Gloria was not the origin. One swine sequence was published later :
A/Swine/4/Mexico, which had many strange mutations (errors,bad sample ?) but it
looked as if it originated before the first human got it.
AFAIK, this was never confirmed and there are no papers about it and no virologists
even looked at it.
There was a project scheduled with 4 scientists to go to La Gloria and examine
but it was cancelled and we never heard about it again.
There are some threads here

the first sequence at genbank is from Mar.24: A/Mexico/LaGloria-4/2009(H1N1)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/CY053642

hmm, they have a paper now, from Nov.2012 - I had missed this

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22921315

Abstract
:
1 swine and 3 humans from LaGloria

> Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the swine isolate (A/swine/Mexico/4/2009)
> collected in April 2009 is positioned in a branch that is basal to the rest of the
> H1N1pdm09 clade in two (NP and PA) of the eight single-gene trees.

what does that mean ?

> In addition, the concatenated HA-NA and the complete whole-genome trees also showed
> a basal position for A/swine/Mexico/4/2009. Furthermore, this swine virus was found to share
> molecular traits with non-H1N1pdm09 H1N1 viral lineages. These results suggest that this
> isolate could potentially be the first one detected from a sister lineage closely related to
> the H1N1pdm09 viruses.
> Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewtopic.php?t=1295&mforum=fluwiki2
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

If it is in the domestic poultry markets, new onset cases in Shanghai should start decreasing now, right?
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

... this will be another novel outbreak where the origin can not be identified.

Just curious ... were there ever traces of avian flu found in Mammoth DNA or any other prehistoric (5000 yo+) DNA?

There is still the idea floating around that global warming is thawing long frozen lakes in the high Arctic, which could give birds exposure to long extinct flu types.


Where there ever traces of flu found in frozen lakes in Russia and Canada?
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Please read this from the CDC:

Is it possible that human cases of H7N9 flu will be found in the United States?

Yes. The most likely scenario for this right now would be H7N9 infection in a traveler from China. Many people travel between China and the United States. CDC issued a health alert for public health officials and clinicians in the United States to be on the look-out for flu symptoms in travelers who are returning from countries with bird flu. CDC has issued guidance for isolating, testing, and treating such patients. However, since this virus does not seem to be spreading easily from person-to-person, a few cases in the United States with travel links to China would not change the risk of infection for the general public in the United States.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=493895&postcount=1


----------------------------------

At the very least China has a massive environmental contagion problem via some unverified animal vector.

FluTrackers does not have to be "politically correct". No one owns us.

The fact is that China has covered up this outbreak for months. If you doubt this, read our extensive ILI/pneumonia forum which a collection of the few media reports about respiratory illness in China.

China has a history of concealing H5N1 poultry outbreaks and we know this because of the H5N1 positive poultry smuggled into Vietnam.

Their record for truth telling is abysmal.

The ministry of agriculture says no poultry farms, pig farms, wild bird areas test positive for H7N9 here and here. The ministry of health says this disease is not human to human. I think they are moving to laying the blame on pigeons.

A ridiculous bunch of **** designed to protect the food industry and not "panic" the population.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

> Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the swine isolate (A/swine/Mexico/4/2009)
> collected in April 2009 is positioned in a branch that is basal to the rest of the
> H1N1pdm09 clade in two (NP and PA) of the eight single-gene trees.

what does that mean ?
I would take this to mean the branch which includes all the main human pandemic sequences (in orange) occurs down-stream of A/swine/Mexico/4/2009 (in red). The La Gloria sequences (in blue) are on their own branch and probably were an evolutionary dead end.
Having said all that it is highly likely that all of the really interesting genetic action occurred in one of the millions of pigs and humans that did not get sampled.
I do not have access to this paper - it becomes free to view in 5 months - but a low res. view of the trees can be seen at the link.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

The worst thing is that WHO/OIE/FAO acknowledged Chinese statements about the nearly absence of H7N9 in birds.

It is IMPOSSIBLE.

If veterinary authorities would have tested so many samples from different locations and poultry farms, live markets etc., why had they not isolate d a single H5N1 / H9N2 virus, since these are quite widespread in birds?

Are they saying China is H5N1-free?

G.Hartl didn't answer to this specific question.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Translated with Google translate from:
http://boxun.com/news/gb/china/2013/04/201304201625.shtml

The Shanghai Hospital Message: H7N9 infection through the air and droplets
Look the Boxun hot: avian influenza


(-Boxun SAN FRANCISCO, April 20, 2013 reprint)
Source: Free Asia


Shanghai hospital inside information: H7N9 infection through the air and droplets



The mainland Thursday new cases of H7N9 avian influenza in a confirmed death of the patient. The national total of cases increased to 88, of which 17 people were killed. Shanghai confirmed that two families collective infections, causing local people to panic, health care workers send SMS refers to a very serious epidemic virus has pleasant descendant.



Thursday 5 new H7N9 avian influenza, from Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Henan, Shanghai and Zhejiang two patients, aged between 26 years to 69 years. 38-year-old male patient in Zhengzhou, is engaged in the slaughter of poultry sales, serious condition. Suzhou, a 60-year-old male patient diagnosed earlier Wednesday night she died.



The virus has human-to-human transmission, as well as whether the mutation of the virus, has become the topics of greatest concern of the people of Shanghai. Recently, microblogging disseminating a paramedic SMS, SMS revealed that the local epidemic is very serious, the virus mutates, no fever may also be infected, and serving hospitals, all health care workers are prohibited from Shanghai, to be on call 24 hours . The SMS was put microblogging after widespread, shortly microblogging be deleted. Reporters Thursday successfully found the message on the microblogging Internet users Choi, he confirmed to reporters that the message from a health care friends.



He said: "he said to the virus through the air and droplets of infected and not infected, but infection, so be sure to wear a mask, very nervous, saying as experts in Beijing said, patients can have fever, the disease such as Beijing's 4-year-old boy, infected but not incidence, experts still are afraid to exclude will be human-to-human transmission. "



Civil H7N9 avian influenza may have human-to-human transmission very panic. Mr. Hu told reporters on Thursday, who lives in Minhang District of Shanghai public refers to the hotel business in the region is bleak, people are panic.



A nearby hotel, usually go very lively, recently-store only a few people, people panic, Minhang District, where we are already more than 20,000 pigeons were burned, I believe that the situation is very serious, the government is very nervous, he said: authorities say human, people privately say definitely human, otherwise why would so nervous. "



The reporter made several phone calls to the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control, and the Shanghai Municipal Health Bureau, have no answer their phone.



China CDC Health Emergency Management Office staff on duty to respond to our station reporter inquiries about the virus capable successor of saying, Shanghai has been found in two family clusters of cases infected with the virus involving a father and son and a couple experts so far human-to-human transmission of the virus will not be rectified, everything remains to be further verified.



He said: "human-to-human transmission of the argument, not one or two cases to a conclusion, but also collect a lot of data to draw a conclusion, even a small amount of family clusters of cases, not like the virus can be transmitted person to person, at least so far there is no official announcement of the results out. "



Feng Zijian, director of the center on Thursday to accept the Beijing News access means, still not clear judgment is limited human-to-human causes, or joint or exposed due to the authorities have been concerned about and research, but even a small amount of familial aggregation cases, does not mean that the virus has had the ability to effective human-to-human transmission.



Zhengzhou public Miss He refers to members of the public are worried about the spread of the disease, not eating live poultry, and greater attention to personal hygiene, urges the government to announce the latest epidemic, people do preventive.



She said: "already do not eat live poultry, reduce the consumption of meat, will strengthen the hand cleaning and disinfection, some people buy a mask, but not too many people, telling everyone to be more careful."



In addition, the Public Security Bureau of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province Tombouctou, Hengshan County, Yuyang, Fugu County, three women, due to the use of micro-Bo, paste it, QQ group spreading rumors of H7N9 bird flu, administrative detention by the police according to law. Tombouctou First users post, refers to the local city hospital experts on Tuesday confirmed, Zhang Xiong-ying has become the the local first case of H7N9 cases. Subsequently, two other Internet users also forward the message of the paragraph.





_ (The network reproduced) (Boxun boxun.com)
29223171625
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

I think everyone should activate their personal disease preparedness plan as the US CDC has issued a question and answer paper here that says to expect H7N9 in the United States probably via a traveler from China.

There is no proof that H7N9 is human-to-human but 3 clusters have been confirmed. There may be some limited human-to-human spread. We do not know.

What we do know is that China has a massive environmental contagion that infects people with H7N9. This is a threat to global health.

So this is what I am doing:

1) I am telling my family and friends about the situation.

2) I have added some "preps" to my food. In Florida we are supposed to have 5 days of food and water for hurricane season so I am going to do that anyway. In 2004 I was without power for 3 separate weeks so I know about that experience.

3) I already purchased a 90 supply of my maintenance drug a couple of weeks ago.

4) Since prevention is the only weapon we have against an H7N9 infection I am going to see what else I need regarding vitamins, masks, gloves, etc.

5) Since I live in one of the top tourists destinations in the world, I have started to enforce a house policy that every time someone walks inside they immediately wash their hands.

6) I am going to start wiping down handles, door knobs, remotes, etc. once a day.

7) I am finding some local people willing to be in a flu buddy group with me. I have 1 health care professional and I also have 2 seniors who will need extra help in a health care emergency.

8) I am going to contact the local schools in my area and talk to the school nurse or principle about H7N9.

9) I am going to use 3 items in my outreach:

Watch: Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions
Avian Flu (H7N9) in China



Interim Guidance on the Use of Antiviral Agents for Treatment of Human Infections with Avian Influenza A (H7N9)


H7N9 Flu and You
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

The worst thing is that WHO/OIE/FAO acknowledged Chinese statements about the nearly absence of H7N9 in birds.

It is IMPOSSIBLE.

If veterinary authorities would have tested so many samples from different locations and poultry farms, live markets etc., why had they not isolate d a single H5N1 / H9N2 virus, since these are quite widespread in birds?

Are they saying China is H5N1-free?

G.Hartl didn't answer to this specific question.


I assumed they had this special H7-primer which they ran them against.
80000 samples !
They might be testing it against H9 and H5 later
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Just curious ... were there ever traces of avian flu found in Mammoth DNA or any other prehistoric (5000 yo+) DNA?

There is still the idea floating around that global warming is thawing long frozen lakes in the high Arctic, which could give birds exposure to long extinct flu types.


Where there ever traces of flu found in frozen lakes in Russia and Canada?

Yes, isolates have been taken from lake ice.
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

no traces of flu were found in water-ice
RNA would degrade
only retroviruses may be found in old DNA

Taubenberger + co may have some small unpublished fragments
from < 1918
 
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

no traces of flu were found in water-ice
RNA would degrade
only retroviruses may be found in old DNA

Taubenberger + co may have some small unpublished fragments
from < 1918


snip


"Scientists have in fact detected influenza viruses frozen in the ice and mud of lakes in Alaska, Siberia and elsewhere. These Arctic lakes are the summer grounds for ducks that migrate to China, Southern Asia, Europe and North America."

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/05/iceplague/
 
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