-
FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
-
We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.
Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
- Thread starter Laidback Al
- Start date
JimO
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I can assure you that I haven't lost my mind over this and I certainly am not trying to spread alarm. If you go to the post I linked, Michael Coston provides a commentary on this cluster. There is new information. The two sons were indeed tested and the results were just reported. That seems worthy of discussion to me. This is The Pandemic Discussion Forum, right? It's a place to discuss information and not a place to make accusations. If there are topics that are off limits, then just say so and I'd be happy to no longer participate in the Discussion Forums.
I can assure you that I haven't lost my mind over this and I certainly am not trying to spread alarm. If you go to the post I linked, Michael Coston provides a commentary on this cluster. There is new information. The two sons were indeed tested and the results were just reported. That seems worthy of discussion to me. This is The Pandemic Discussion Forum, right? It's a place to discuss information and not a place to make accusations. If there are topics that are off limits, then just say so and I'd be happy to no longer participate in the Discussion Forums.
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I would like only to invite all of us - included myself - to be fair and kindly during this crisis. It is likely a long way before we can see the end of the dark tunnel. Please excuse me for any incidental wording regarded as offensive.
I would like only to invite all of us - included myself - to be fair and kindly during this crisis. It is likely a long way before we can see the end of the dark tunnel. Please excuse me for any incidental wording regarded as offensive.
Catbird
Senior Moderator
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Recent tweets from@HaertlG:
"Gregory H?rtl @HaertlG 55m
.@Laurie_Garrett @CFR_org @BanningGarrett Remember within a family #H7N9 infection could be from a common environmental source, so no h2h."
"Gregory H?rtl @HaertlG 47m
.@STEWest @Laurie_Garrett @CFR_org @BanningGarrett Good point. But again can't rule nout environ source without more investigations. #H7N9"
I understand his point about a possible common environmental source. But, according to an article I posted on Apr. 1 (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=490025&postcount=59), an official survey conducted by the Shanghai CDC showed that the family had NO CONTACT with poultry prior to becoming ill and seldom left the home.
"...According to the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control survey, surnamed Li, father and sons before the onset of no contact with birds, but also did not go out history."
So I'm wondering what environmental source all 3 of them might have possibly shared that would have infected them all.
Recent tweets from@HaertlG:
"Gregory H?rtl @HaertlG 55m
.@Laurie_Garrett @CFR_org @BanningGarrett Remember within a family #H7N9 infection could be from a common environmental source, so no h2h."
"Gregory H?rtl @HaertlG 47m
.@STEWest @Laurie_Garrett @CFR_org @BanningGarrett Good point. But again can't rule nout environ source without more investigations. #H7N9"
I understand his point about a possible common environmental source. But, according to an article I posted on Apr. 1 (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=490025&postcount=59), an official survey conducted by the Shanghai CDC showed that the family had NO CONTACT with poultry prior to becoming ill and seldom left the home.
"...According to the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control survey, surnamed Li, father and sons before the onset of no contact with birds, but also did not go out history."
So I'm wondering what environmental source all 3 of them might have possibly shared that would have infected them all.
Catbird
Senior Moderator
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
The following article gives the official position of China's CDC regarding H2H. It also notes that pregnant women (3rd trimester) are now considered high-risk. Although that seems obvious, given the history of increased complications in pregnant women from other types of flu, this is the first time that they are being specifically identified as high risk.
"Expert: advanced high-risk groups of pregnant women are infected with the H7N9 avian influenza
2013 04 18 at 03:05
Source: Beijing Times
Beijing Times News 87-year-old Lee is the first case of human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza confirmed cases, and therefore death. The national guard Planning Commission, introduced yesterday, with Lee admitted to hospital for treatment of his two sons, the eldest son has been cured by serum testing confirmed infected with the H7N9 virus, Lee youngest son has died unable to collect specimens. This was a case of familial aggregation.
Poster Retrospective diagnosed cases in the previous night, including Shanghai Lee family of three cases of pneumonia of unknown causes. Feng Zijian, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control Health Emergency Center said at the press conference yesterday, several cases including patients with the first confirmed cases of Lee's eldest son, he was diagnosed patients sera. In this way, Li 2 in 3 patients have been diagnosed with, another person has died can not collect specimens. This familial aggregation of cases, as the father and sons co-exposure to poultry or pollute the environment or between infection caused, is still under investigation, there is no final conclusions. But even a small number of cases of familial aggregation, does not mean that the virus has the ability to have effective human-to-human transmission.
...Focus and infectious
A small number of cases of familial aggregation is not equal to the effective human-to-human transmission
Recently, the Hong Kong Health Department issued a notice that the medical institutions in Hong Kong, close contact with a very slight possibility of human-to-human transmission.
Feng Zijian, this view of public health agencies in Hong Kong, but also make a guess based on the cases of familial aggregation phenomenon see, the Chinese Center for Disease Control also highly concerned about this family clusters of cases, and in-depth analysis which possibilities is the first occurrence of avian-to-human transmission, human-to-human infections, or patients with common history of exposure or were exposed to contaminated objects or the environment. However, even a small number of cases of familial aggregation, does not mean that the virus has had the ability to effective human-to-human transmission.
Feng Zijian, H5N1 was found for the first time be able to infect humans, from family clusters of cases occurred up to now, has lasted more than a decade, remained infection from birds to people, and the number of infections is limited, worldwide in hundreds, China a total of 45 cases.
He stressed that there is no evidence that H7N9 continued infection, not only is the Chinese Center for Disease Control, which is the international public health agencies and disease control institutions common understanding of the virus.
Dispel doubts >>
Limited human-to-human transmission and more parent-child relationship
Feng Zijian, human-to-human transmission of limited human-to-human transmission and effective human-to-human transmission, that is sustained human-to-human transmission. The former refers to such human-to-human transmission is very accidental, mostly related susceptibility and the family, the patient is often the parent-child relationship, genetic susceptibility is genetically related to a few specific people in the crowd with some susceptible physiological mechanism, so that he can be infected. This case does not appear multiple generations of infection, at most, a second-generation patients, three generations of patients and more patients will no longer appear, but generally does not appear to a person infected a number of secondary cases, this is the limited human-to-human transmission.
When the disease evolved into a human influenza virus is effective human-to-human transmission. We often see during a pandemic of influenza A H1N1 influenza outbreak crowd, such as at school or in the community, many patients, a patient can infect a number of patients can continue to spread, you can see a clear chain of transmission, the disease can also be far from the spread, which is the effective human-to-human transmission.
Market of live birds "scalding" to suspect
Since poultry infection, why about 40% of those infected poultry or poultry market exposure history?
Feng Zijian pointed out that not every patient can clearly recall the history of exposure. Inferred or poultry contaminated environment or direct contact with poultry that exposure to infection from birds to people, and then lead to infection.
"We recognize that an important city of live poultry markets and sell freshly slaughtered cause disease risk factors." Said Feng Zijian, the market in live poultry stalls often hair removal device, which has hot water, put the chicken inside the high-speed rotation, easy to form aerosols, if any virus, may inhale through the neighborhood. This is also the experts suspect that the important cause human infections exposed to the environment.
...In the late pregnant women infected with high-risk
Media groups of pregnant women, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of the problem, Beijing Ditan Hospital infectious disease treatment center director Li Xingwang Judging from the experience in the treatment of influenza, at 27 weeks, before the early pregnancy, pregnant women feel and general no difference. Doctors are more concerned about in the late pregnant women, this population is infected with influenza high-risk groups. In the treatment to be positive, but in the middle and late after the drugs may have certain effects on the fetus. As for the early pregnant women, but also to do the assessment."
xhttp://news.ifeng.com/mainland/special/h7n9/content-3/detail_2013_04/18/24337126_0.shtml
The following article gives the official position of China's CDC regarding H2H. It also notes that pregnant women (3rd trimester) are now considered high-risk. Although that seems obvious, given the history of increased complications in pregnant women from other types of flu, this is the first time that they are being specifically identified as high risk.
"Expert: advanced high-risk groups of pregnant women are infected with the H7N9 avian influenza
2013 04 18 at 03:05
Source: Beijing Times
Beijing Times News 87-year-old Lee is the first case of human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza confirmed cases, and therefore death. The national guard Planning Commission, introduced yesterday, with Lee admitted to hospital for treatment of his two sons, the eldest son has been cured by serum testing confirmed infected with the H7N9 virus, Lee youngest son has died unable to collect specimens. This was a case of familial aggregation.
Poster Retrospective diagnosed cases in the previous night, including Shanghai Lee family of three cases of pneumonia of unknown causes. Feng Zijian, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control Health Emergency Center said at the press conference yesterday, several cases including patients with the first confirmed cases of Lee's eldest son, he was diagnosed patients sera. In this way, Li 2 in 3 patients have been diagnosed with, another person has died can not collect specimens. This familial aggregation of cases, as the father and sons co-exposure to poultry or pollute the environment or between infection caused, is still under investigation, there is no final conclusions. But even a small number of cases of familial aggregation, does not mean that the virus has the ability to have effective human-to-human transmission.
...Focus and infectious
A small number of cases of familial aggregation is not equal to the effective human-to-human transmission
Recently, the Hong Kong Health Department issued a notice that the medical institutions in Hong Kong, close contact with a very slight possibility of human-to-human transmission.
Feng Zijian, this view of public health agencies in Hong Kong, but also make a guess based on the cases of familial aggregation phenomenon see, the Chinese Center for Disease Control also highly concerned about this family clusters of cases, and in-depth analysis which possibilities is the first occurrence of avian-to-human transmission, human-to-human infections, or patients with common history of exposure or were exposed to contaminated objects or the environment. However, even a small number of cases of familial aggregation, does not mean that the virus has had the ability to effective human-to-human transmission.
Feng Zijian, H5N1 was found for the first time be able to infect humans, from family clusters of cases occurred up to now, has lasted more than a decade, remained infection from birds to people, and the number of infections is limited, worldwide in hundreds, China a total of 45 cases.
He stressed that there is no evidence that H7N9 continued infection, not only is the Chinese Center for Disease Control, which is the international public health agencies and disease control institutions common understanding of the virus.
Dispel doubts >>
Limited human-to-human transmission and more parent-child relationship
Feng Zijian, human-to-human transmission of limited human-to-human transmission and effective human-to-human transmission, that is sustained human-to-human transmission. The former refers to such human-to-human transmission is very accidental, mostly related susceptibility and the family, the patient is often the parent-child relationship, genetic susceptibility is genetically related to a few specific people in the crowd with some susceptible physiological mechanism, so that he can be infected. This case does not appear multiple generations of infection, at most, a second-generation patients, three generations of patients and more patients will no longer appear, but generally does not appear to a person infected a number of secondary cases, this is the limited human-to-human transmission.
When the disease evolved into a human influenza virus is effective human-to-human transmission. We often see during a pandemic of influenza A H1N1 influenza outbreak crowd, such as at school or in the community, many patients, a patient can infect a number of patients can continue to spread, you can see a clear chain of transmission, the disease can also be far from the spread, which is the effective human-to-human transmission.
Market of live birds "scalding" to suspect
Since poultry infection, why about 40% of those infected poultry or poultry market exposure history?
Feng Zijian pointed out that not every patient can clearly recall the history of exposure. Inferred or poultry contaminated environment or direct contact with poultry that exposure to infection from birds to people, and then lead to infection.
"We recognize that an important city of live poultry markets and sell freshly slaughtered cause disease risk factors." Said Feng Zijian, the market in live poultry stalls often hair removal device, which has hot water, put the chicken inside the high-speed rotation, easy to form aerosols, if any virus, may inhale through the neighborhood. This is also the experts suspect that the important cause human infections exposed to the environment.
...In the late pregnant women infected with high-risk
Media groups of pregnant women, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of the problem, Beijing Ditan Hospital infectious disease treatment center director Li Xingwang Judging from the experience in the treatment of influenza, at 27 weeks, before the early pregnancy, pregnant women feel and general no difference. Doctors are more concerned about in the late pregnant women, this population is infected with influenza high-risk groups. In the treatment to be positive, but in the middle and late after the drugs may have certain effects on the fetus. As for the early pregnant women, but also to do the assessment."
xhttp://news.ifeng.com/mainland/special/h7n9/content-3/detail_2013_04/18/24337126_0.shtml
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
The suspected family cluster appears to be true. Even if the antibody test is not perfect, added to the information that we have, I have adjusted our chart to reflect that they all had H7N9. It is the most reasonable explanation with all of the data that we have compiled.
The only issue is whether they transmitted it to each other. I think we do not know for sure either way.
Still there is no proven carrier of this disease. Today the Ministry of Agriculture announced that poultry and pigs farms have tested negative. So have slaughterhouses and wild bird habitats. Only pigeons and samples from live markets have resulted in positive tests.
So where does this leave us?
It is back to the old H5N1 situation again. Both the Medical Establishment and the Agricultural Establishment in China are denying.
The Chinese CDC has said several times in the last few days that they have this situation under control. How can they say that when no realistic explanation has been established for the spread?
I can see that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.
And so can the world.
We are not idiots.
It is time for China to open its doors to "boots on the ground" teams of infectious disease experts to fully investigate this situation.
The suspected family cluster appears to be true. Even if the antibody test is not perfect, added to the information that we have, I have adjusted our chart to reflect that they all had H7N9. It is the most reasonable explanation with all of the data that we have compiled.
The only issue is whether they transmitted it to each other. I think we do not know for sure either way.
Still there is no proven carrier of this disease. Today the Ministry of Agriculture announced that poultry and pigs farms have tested negative. So have slaughterhouses and wild bird habitats. Only pigeons and samples from live markets have resulted in positive tests.
So where does this leave us?
It is back to the old H5N1 situation again. Both the Medical Establishment and the Agricultural Establishment in China are denying.
The Chinese CDC has said several times in the last few days that they have this situation under control. How can they say that when no realistic explanation has been established for the spread?
I can see that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.
And so can the world.
We are not idiots.
It is time for China to open its doors to "boots on the ground" teams of infectious disease experts to fully investigate this situation.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
The China CDC just announced that the World Health Organization is invited to come next week with a team.
Finally!
World Health Organization is concerned about China is not in contact with poultry H7N9 avian influenza
Time :2013-04-18 font:
Date: 04/18/13 09:37:38 Source: China News Network
China news agency, New York, April 17 (Reporter Ruan Yulin) - World Health Organization said 17 confirmed cases of H7N9 avian influenza in China, some patients and not with the poultry had contact with the avian influenza virus has become more and more mysterious.
As of the 17th, 82 patients were diagnosed with H7N9 avian influenza infection, including 17 deaths. New cases from East China.
World Health Organization spokesman said that some patients had not been in contact with poultry. Piece of the puzzle has not been solved and therefore require more large-scale surveys.
Chinese Center for Disease Control epidemiological Zeng Guang, chief scientist, said publicly that there are now nearly 40% of patients with H7N9 avian influenza is no clear history of poultry exposure, it is urgent to find the source of infection.
"These people are infected in the end is how? Still a mystery." Zeng said. And recommended screening carried out in some areas, take a look at healthy people carry the H7N9 avian influenza virus is isolated phenomenon or a common phenomenon.
The state health department said that the current bird flu cases in the dissemination of state, has not yet found evidence of human-to-human transmission. Confirmed cases are located in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Henan provinces and cities. Shanghai has confirmed 31 cases of infection and 11 deaths.
World Health Organization will send next week influenza virus experts to China to assist in the investigation of new avian influenza H7N9 virus. They were from Europe, USA, Australia and China, eight experts is expected to be launched in China three-week investigation.
Taken from: http://www.cdctj.com.cn/main/shownews.php?tblName=A0015_10&storepk=36&newsid=31363
---------------------------------
http://www.chinacdc.cn/mtdx/crbxx/201304/t20130418_80062.htm
The China CDC just announced that the World Health Organization is invited to come next week with a team.
Finally!
World Health Organization is concerned about China is not in contact with poultry H7N9 avian influenza
Time :2013-04-18 font:
Date: 04/18/13 09:37:38 Source: China News Network
China news agency, New York, April 17 (Reporter Ruan Yulin) - World Health Organization said 17 confirmed cases of H7N9 avian influenza in China, some patients and not with the poultry had contact with the avian influenza virus has become more and more mysterious.
As of the 17th, 82 patients were diagnosed with H7N9 avian influenza infection, including 17 deaths. New cases from East China.
World Health Organization spokesman said that some patients had not been in contact with poultry. Piece of the puzzle has not been solved and therefore require more large-scale surveys.
Chinese Center for Disease Control epidemiological Zeng Guang, chief scientist, said publicly that there are now nearly 40% of patients with H7N9 avian influenza is no clear history of poultry exposure, it is urgent to find the source of infection.
"These people are infected in the end is how? Still a mystery." Zeng said. And recommended screening carried out in some areas, take a look at healthy people carry the H7N9 avian influenza virus is isolated phenomenon or a common phenomenon.
The state health department said that the current bird flu cases in the dissemination of state, has not yet found evidence of human-to-human transmission. Confirmed cases are located in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Henan provinces and cities. Shanghai has confirmed 31 cases of infection and 11 deaths.
World Health Organization will send next week influenza virus experts to China to assist in the investigation of new avian influenza H7N9 virus. They were from Europe, USA, Australia and China, eight experts is expected to be launched in China three-week investigation.
Taken from: http://www.cdctj.com.cn/main/shownews.php?tblName=A0015_10&storepk=36&newsid=31363
---------------------------------
http://www.chinacdc.cn/mtdx/crbxx/201304/t20130418_80062.htm
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Hoorah! As this is potentially a global problem (if it goes pandemic) it is great that the world's best scientists can finally join forces to help solve the mystery, quantify the risks, and develop solutions. :applause:
Hoorah! As this is potentially a global problem (if it goes pandemic) it is great that the world's best scientists can finally join forces to help solve the mystery, quantify the risks, and develop solutions. :applause:
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I have frequently mentioned rodents as a potential vector to rule out.
There is some precedent here. Whilst this particular species is not resident in China, it does show that rats could be a vector. I dont know if all species of rats or only some have dual sialic acid receptors, but it must be worth looking at?
I have frequently mentioned rodents as a potential vector to rule out.
There is some precedent here. Whilst this particular species is not resident in China, it does show that rats could be a vector. I dont know if all species of rats or only some have dual sialic acid receptors, but it must be worth looking at?
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
as have quails.
How would the virus go from poultry to rats and back ?
We have zero rat-sequences but thousands poultry sequences
Avian, Bat, Blow fly, Camel, Canine, Cat, Cheetah, Civet, Environment, Equine, Feline,
Ferret, Giant anteater, Human, Leopard, Mink, Muskrat, Pika, Raccoon dog, Reassortant,
Seal, Stone marten, Swine, Tiger, Unknown, Whale
as have quails.
How would the virus go from poultry to rats and back ?
We have zero rat-sequences but thousands poultry sequences
Avian, Bat, Blow fly, Camel, Canine, Cat, Cheetah, Civet, Environment, Equine, Feline,
Ferret, Giant anteater, Human, Leopard, Mink, Muskrat, Pika, Raccoon dog, Reassortant,
Seal, Stone marten, Swine, Tiger, Unknown, Whale
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Remember the H5N1 discussion about "superspreaders"? Children are regarded as somewhat of a superspreader, but didn't someone put forward a theory that people with AIDS can become superspreaders? As AIDs increases globally, might that impact the spread of influenzas for which we have no Ab, more than regular influenza?
.
Remember the H5N1 discussion about "superspreaders"? Children are regarded as somewhat of a superspreader, but didn't someone put forward a theory that people with AIDS can become superspreaders? As AIDs increases globally, might that impact the spread of influenzas for which we have no Ab, more than regular influenza?
.
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Being very much interested in the development of this influenza virus, I have a question.
Reading up on influenza, I found a publication that mentioned influenza in Rattus Norvegicus and I concluded from the article that this species could carry this virus.
See this link: http://www.genome.jp/kegg-bin/show_pathway?rno05164
I read many times that this novel H7N9 virus shows signs of adaptation to mammalians and that the virus in chickens and other poultry seems to be a different one than the one found in humans.
Can it be that the source of this virus is really Rattus Norvegicus and that the oftentimes mentioned mutations have happened and are happening in this omnipresent mammalian rodent species?
Since markets where chickens are slaughtered and places like this, tend to be infested with rats, can it not be that rats are intermediate between humans and chickens?
Rats urinate everywhere they can and if infected with this virus, might sneeze all over the place as well, thereby spraying the virus into the human habitat as well.
I assume that in China, like everywhere else on the planet, Rattus Norvegicus and Homo Sapiens live together in the same habitat and as such wondered about this possibility.
Does anyone know if this is being researched?
Being very much interested in the development of this influenza virus, I have a question.
Reading up on influenza, I found a publication that mentioned influenza in Rattus Norvegicus and I concluded from the article that this species could carry this virus.
See this link: http://www.genome.jp/kegg-bin/show_pathway?rno05164
I read many times that this novel H7N9 virus shows signs of adaptation to mammalians and that the virus in chickens and other poultry seems to be a different one than the one found in humans.
Can it be that the source of this virus is really Rattus Norvegicus and that the oftentimes mentioned mutations have happened and are happening in this omnipresent mammalian rodent species?
Since markets where chickens are slaughtered and places like this, tend to be infested with rats, can it not be that rats are intermediate between humans and chickens?
Rats urinate everywhere they can and if infected with this virus, might sneeze all over the place as well, thereby spraying the virus into the human habitat as well.
I assume that in China, like everywhere else on the planet, Rattus Norvegicus and Homo Sapiens live together in the same habitat and as such wondered about this possibility.
Does anyone know if this is being researched?
Last edited:
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I think it was not demonstrated that H1pdm09 was worse in HIV/AIDS patients than other chronic diseased patients.
The HIV//AIDS could also reduce some hyperinflammatory reponses because the depletion of some T cells related to cytokine storm.
Children are usually immunocompetent but they lack of an antibodies repertoire against a variety of antigens, where old people had.
It is possible that natural infection with recent human/animal flu viruses in China may have increased in some Young people an heterotypic immunity that is not present in older people (original sin, for example, may play a role too).
Children may also have a longer viral shedding period, even when symptoms have resolved.
If in China elderly people are used to take care of children (an there is need for an ethnographic proof), then it may also possible that at least a number of these infections are actually the result of children shedding.
I think it was not demonstrated that H1pdm09 was worse in HIV/AIDS patients than other chronic diseased patients.
The HIV//AIDS could also reduce some hyperinflammatory reponses because the depletion of some T cells related to cytokine storm.
Children are usually immunocompetent but they lack of an antibodies repertoire against a variety of antigens, where old people had.
It is possible that natural infection with recent human/animal flu viruses in China may have increased in some Young people an heterotypic immunity that is not present in older people (original sin, for example, may play a role too).
Children may also have a longer viral shedding period, even when symptoms have resolved.
If in China elderly people are used to take care of children (an there is need for an ethnographic proof), then it may also possible that at least a number of these infections are actually the result of children shedding.
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
The maxim 'if you dont look, you won't find' may apply here.
Can anyone find any record of rats being trapped and tested for influenza strains, but influenza has not been found? However, even if that is the case, we dont know that it is true for H7N9 until the premise has been tested.
Hopefully the WHO/China expert teams will look at this to gain a definitive answer. Same goes for any mice they trap in and around wet markets where H7N9 has been found in poultry.
If the answer was 'yes' it could help to explain the geographical spread. Rodents are well known for hitch-hiking in grain transports etc. (Bubonic plague distribution is a classic example)
The maxim 'if you dont look, you won't find' may apply here.
Can anyone find any record of rats being trapped and tested for influenza strains, but influenza has not been found? However, even if that is the case, we dont know that it is true for H7N9 until the premise has been tested.
Hopefully the WHO/China expert teams will look at this to gain a definitive answer. Same goes for any mice they trap in and around wet markets where H7N9 has been found in poultry.
If the answer was 'yes' it could help to explain the geographical spread. Rodents are well known for hitch-hiking in grain transports etc. (Bubonic plague distribution is a classic example)
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
H5N2 outbreak - not found in rodents or wild birds
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1590665?uid=3738032&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21102161564147
However, this second study has a number of interesting points in the discussion.
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0039206
Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in Wild House Mice
Discussion
This study provides evidence that avian influenza viruses may be naturally transmitted to mice at outbreak sites and that wild house mice can efficiently replicate avian influenza viruses without prior adaptation. Even though our sample size was low and we were sampling nearly a month after the outbreak was first detected, the house mice in our mammal survey at the Idaho outbreak site showed a positive response for influenza A antibodies. We recommend that future outbreaks allow for significant rodent sampling on the premises as soon as an outbreak is detected to further our understanding of the role rodents may play in avian influenza dynamics at outbreak sites. Furthermore, low sera sample volumes for the mice prevented us from subtyping the samples, which may have provided stronger support for past avian influenza virus infection. The ELISA used in this study was type-specific for antibodies to influenza A; therefore we cannot rule out that the mice may have been infected with a mammalian influenza strain rather than an avian strain. However, the outbreak farm housed only birds so the probability of the presence of a mammalian influenza strain was likely to be lower than for an avian strain.
Few studies have explored the seroprevalence of avian influenza viruses in synanthropic wildlife at outbreak sites and active areas of infection. Exceptions are surveys by Nettles et al. [55], Henzler et al. [56], and Shortridge et al. [57]. In the first study more than 250 mice and rats from infected farms were sampled after a 1983–84 outbreak of H5N2 virus in domestic poultry in the eastern U.S. No evidence for influenza infection was found in the rodents. However, rodent sampling was conducted 2–3 months post-outbreak, which is relatively late given the monthly survival rate of mice on farms can be as low as 0.55 [58]. Henzler et al. also surveyed mice on poultry farms during an outbreak of H7N2 in poultry in Pennsylvania, U.S. from 1996–1998. Lung and intestinal tissues were tested by virus isolation and all samples were found to be negative. In the Shortridge et al. study, mice and rats associated with poultry markets in Hong Kong were surveyed for exposure to avian influenza viruses after the initial detection of Asian strain H5N1 virus. Again, no virus was isolated from either rodent species, but rats showed evidence of hemagglutination inhibition activity and the ability of both mice and rats to replicate the H5N1 virus was subsequently confirmed [30].
A potential caveat with regard to mammalian sero-surveys is that many assays developed to detect antibodies to avian influenza viruses are optimized for poultry species and may not be validated for other species. Consequently, assay sensitivity and specificity may not be consistent with published parameters. Further, a number of commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) developed for detection of antibodies to avian influenza viruses use anti-mouse antigens and may not be appropriate for rodents. Hemagluttination inhibition (HI) tests may also be problematic as mouse sera may cause non-specific binding that interferes with HI tests [59]. Only a third of the mice tested in this study were positive for antibodies to avian influenza virus. Further work needs to be done to elucidate whether mice lacking an ELISA response would be protected upon re-exposure to influenza virus.
Rodents could contribute to avian influenza virus transmission on and among farms in a number of ways. Mice and rats could spread virus via mechanical transmission [60]. Alternatively, they could contribute to viral spread by becoming infected via scavenging on infected poultry carcasses [2] or by contact with contaminated water sources [61] and subsequently transmitting virus if they are scavenged or predated. Mice are a very common prey species for a variety of raptors, meso-predators, and other mammalian carnivores and are also commonly eaten by barnyard chickens. The high concentrations of viral RNA detected in the lungs of experimentally infected house mice indicate that wild mice may have the potential to replicate sufficient virus for transmission to other species.
We tested five subtypes of avian influenza virus in order to compare the replication potential of subtypes derived from both wild birds and chickens. Our results indicate that wild mice were able to more efficiently replicate viruses originating from wild birds than from poultry. Viral RNA was detected in 94% of lung, 86% of nasal turbinate, and 78% of trachea tissues from mice inoculated with wild bird viruses compared with 51% of lung, 44% of nasal turbinate, and 20% of trachea tissues from mice inoculated with chicken viruses. Given the wide range of replication potential for different avian influenza virus subtypes and different strains within subtypes, this pattern of higher viral replication of wild bird viruses compared with poultry viruses may be due to chance. Further study is needed to confirm this general result, but if the pattern holds, it may indicate that mice are more likely to introduce an avian influenza strain from wild birds to poultry than to spread poultry viruses among and between farms.
Studying wild house mice rather than laboratory mice is essential to understanding the potential role that mice may play in avian influenza virus outbreak dynamics because wild house mice and laboratory mice may exhibit differential immune function [42]. Standard laboratory mice, including BALB/c mice, have a defective Mx1 gene (Mx1−) that reduces their ability to resist influenza virus infections [62], [63], [64], [65]. On the other hand, wild mice with an intact Mx1 gene (Mx1+) are resistant to influenza virus infection [63], [64]. Consequently, the results of studies based on experimental infections of laboratory mice may not accurately reflect viral replication in wild mice. In addition to differing genetics, natural populations of wild mice are likely to include a broad spectrum of heterogeneities that might influence viral replication. For example, sex, age, reproductive status, behavior, nutritional condition, disease status, and parasite load are all likely to affect immune function [42], [43], [66]. In this study, wild house mice were fed standard laboratory diets for 2–5 weeks prior to testing and were dusted for parasites, so individual differences due to nutritional status or parasite loads were likely diminished. However, we were able to evaluate sex and found that female mice exhibited higher viral replication rates compared to males. While none of the females in this study were pregnant at the time of inoculation, a few individuals gave birth during the quarantine period and a range of hormonal conditions were likely. Previous studies of influenza in mice indicate that morbidity, mortality, and viral loads are higher for pregnant females compared with non-pregnant controls [67], [68]. Differential replication rates may be important to consider in the development of risk assessment and transmission models because individuals with higher viral loads may be more likely to cause an infection post contact with a potential host. If so, the basic reproductive number, or the mean number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual, may be different for males and females and that difference might be important in epidemiologic models.
In summary, the ability of wild mice to efficiently replicate avian influenza viruses without adaptation indicates the potential role of wild house mice in avian influenza virus outbreak dynamics and warrants further investigation. In particular, studies that seek to confirm the presence of avian influenza virus antibodies, detect virus, or examine the ability of mice to transmit virus to other species would shed light on whether or not rodent control is an important strategy for avian influenza virus outbreak control.
H5N2 outbreak - not found in rodents or wild birds
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1590665?uid=3738032&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21102161564147
However, this second study has a number of interesting points in the discussion.
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0039206
Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in Wild House Mice
Discussion
This study provides evidence that avian influenza viruses may be naturally transmitted to mice at outbreak sites and that wild house mice can efficiently replicate avian influenza viruses without prior adaptation. Even though our sample size was low and we were sampling nearly a month after the outbreak was first detected, the house mice in our mammal survey at the Idaho outbreak site showed a positive response for influenza A antibodies. We recommend that future outbreaks allow for significant rodent sampling on the premises as soon as an outbreak is detected to further our understanding of the role rodents may play in avian influenza dynamics at outbreak sites. Furthermore, low sera sample volumes for the mice prevented us from subtyping the samples, which may have provided stronger support for past avian influenza virus infection. The ELISA used in this study was type-specific for antibodies to influenza A; therefore we cannot rule out that the mice may have been infected with a mammalian influenza strain rather than an avian strain. However, the outbreak farm housed only birds so the probability of the presence of a mammalian influenza strain was likely to be lower than for an avian strain.
Few studies have explored the seroprevalence of avian influenza viruses in synanthropic wildlife at outbreak sites and active areas of infection. Exceptions are surveys by Nettles et al. [55], Henzler et al. [56], and Shortridge et al. [57]. In the first study more than 250 mice and rats from infected farms were sampled after a 1983–84 outbreak of H5N2 virus in domestic poultry in the eastern U.S. No evidence for influenza infection was found in the rodents. However, rodent sampling was conducted 2–3 months post-outbreak, which is relatively late given the monthly survival rate of mice on farms can be as low as 0.55 [58]. Henzler et al. also surveyed mice on poultry farms during an outbreak of H7N2 in poultry in Pennsylvania, U.S. from 1996–1998. Lung and intestinal tissues were tested by virus isolation and all samples were found to be negative. In the Shortridge et al. study, mice and rats associated with poultry markets in Hong Kong were surveyed for exposure to avian influenza viruses after the initial detection of Asian strain H5N1 virus. Again, no virus was isolated from either rodent species, but rats showed evidence of hemagglutination inhibition activity and the ability of both mice and rats to replicate the H5N1 virus was subsequently confirmed [30].
A potential caveat with regard to mammalian sero-surveys is that many assays developed to detect antibodies to avian influenza viruses are optimized for poultry species and may not be validated for other species. Consequently, assay sensitivity and specificity may not be consistent with published parameters. Further, a number of commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) developed for detection of antibodies to avian influenza viruses use anti-mouse antigens and may not be appropriate for rodents. Hemagluttination inhibition (HI) tests may also be problematic as mouse sera may cause non-specific binding that interferes with HI tests [59]. Only a third of the mice tested in this study were positive for antibodies to avian influenza virus. Further work needs to be done to elucidate whether mice lacking an ELISA response would be protected upon re-exposure to influenza virus.
Rodents could contribute to avian influenza virus transmission on and among farms in a number of ways. Mice and rats could spread virus via mechanical transmission [60]. Alternatively, they could contribute to viral spread by becoming infected via scavenging on infected poultry carcasses [2] or by contact with contaminated water sources [61] and subsequently transmitting virus if they are scavenged or predated. Mice are a very common prey species for a variety of raptors, meso-predators, and other mammalian carnivores and are also commonly eaten by barnyard chickens. The high concentrations of viral RNA detected in the lungs of experimentally infected house mice indicate that wild mice may have the potential to replicate sufficient virus for transmission to other species.
We tested five subtypes of avian influenza virus in order to compare the replication potential of subtypes derived from both wild birds and chickens. Our results indicate that wild mice were able to more efficiently replicate viruses originating from wild birds than from poultry. Viral RNA was detected in 94% of lung, 86% of nasal turbinate, and 78% of trachea tissues from mice inoculated with wild bird viruses compared with 51% of lung, 44% of nasal turbinate, and 20% of trachea tissues from mice inoculated with chicken viruses. Given the wide range of replication potential for different avian influenza virus subtypes and different strains within subtypes, this pattern of higher viral replication of wild bird viruses compared with poultry viruses may be due to chance. Further study is needed to confirm this general result, but if the pattern holds, it may indicate that mice are more likely to introduce an avian influenza strain from wild birds to poultry than to spread poultry viruses among and between farms.
Studying wild house mice rather than laboratory mice is essential to understanding the potential role that mice may play in avian influenza virus outbreak dynamics because wild house mice and laboratory mice may exhibit differential immune function [42]. Standard laboratory mice, including BALB/c mice, have a defective Mx1 gene (Mx1−) that reduces their ability to resist influenza virus infections [62], [63], [64], [65]. On the other hand, wild mice with an intact Mx1 gene (Mx1+) are resistant to influenza virus infection [63], [64]. Consequently, the results of studies based on experimental infections of laboratory mice may not accurately reflect viral replication in wild mice. In addition to differing genetics, natural populations of wild mice are likely to include a broad spectrum of heterogeneities that might influence viral replication. For example, sex, age, reproductive status, behavior, nutritional condition, disease status, and parasite load are all likely to affect immune function [42], [43], [66]. In this study, wild house mice were fed standard laboratory diets for 2–5 weeks prior to testing and were dusted for parasites, so individual differences due to nutritional status or parasite loads were likely diminished. However, we were able to evaluate sex and found that female mice exhibited higher viral replication rates compared to males. While none of the females in this study were pregnant at the time of inoculation, a few individuals gave birth during the quarantine period and a range of hormonal conditions were likely. Previous studies of influenza in mice indicate that morbidity, mortality, and viral loads are higher for pregnant females compared with non-pregnant controls [67], [68]. Differential replication rates may be important to consider in the development of risk assessment and transmission models because individuals with higher viral loads may be more likely to cause an infection post contact with a potential host. If so, the basic reproductive number, or the mean number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual, may be different for males and females and that difference might be important in epidemiologic models.
In summary, the ability of wild mice to efficiently replicate avian influenza viruses without adaptation indicates the potential role of wild house mice in avian influenza virus outbreak dynamics and warrants further investigation. In particular, studies that seek to confirm the presence of avian influenza virus antibodies, detect virus, or examine the ability of mice to transmit virus to other species would shed light on whether or not rodent control is an important strategy for avian influenza virus outbreak control.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
they have been looking for these sources since decades,centuries.
Scientists are eager to find those and publish them as the first , but
... nothing. Mice are frequently used in labs, they infect them
and measure weight loss, death etc.
But in the wild it doesn't seem to happen.
It usually transmits respiratory (or waterborne in mallards) not oral-fecal
they have been looking for these sources since decades,centuries.
Scientists are eager to find those and publish them as the first , but
... nothing. Mice are frequently used in labs, they infect them
and measure weight loss, death etc.
But in the wild it doesn't seem to happen.
It usually transmits respiratory (or waterborne in mallards) not oral-fecal
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Re
I note it says they are being invited to provide 'technical advice' we shall see what that entails and if it includes suggestions like releasing sequence data. Looking at the cast list there is a wealth of talent here I hope they are not just given the guided tour.
Re. The rats
Firstly G.Verkerk welcome to FluTrackers.
I do not know if they are being tested but despite 'lab rats' being a common test model they are not usually used in flu research and, as Gs notes, absent from the sequence database. For immune response models mice are usually used - cheap and easy to work with - and for transmission studies ferrets - a more expensive mammalian model with both alpha 2,3 (Avian) & 2,6 (Mammalian) binding sites who sneeze to spread infection. I queried the GISAID database and they have a few A/pika/Qinghai/2007(H5N1) but no common rat.
Re. HIV
Immunocompromised patients are a big problem in drug resistance development. As they can be on several types of anti-biotic and anti-viral at the same time and often never come off them. They have been instrumental in the growth of MDR and XRD-TB. The only case of Relenza resistance I know of was in a immunocompromised patient who was put on Tamiflu and then developed a resistant form so was switched to Relenza to which they also developed a resistant strain. As their system never cleared the infection the virus just kept on trying combinations until it found one that worked. Release of drug resistant forms from such patients back onto the general population is a major concern in the battle to keep on top of microbial pathogens.
Re
I suspect this is the official conformation of Jason Gale's
posted by Pathfinder on the 14th.
I note it says they are being invited to provide 'technical advice' we shall see what that entails and if it includes suggestions like releasing sequence data. Looking at the cast list there is a wealth of talent here I hope they are not just given the guided tour.
Re. The rats
Firstly G.Verkerk welcome to FluTrackers.
I do not know if they are being tested but despite 'lab rats' being a common test model they are not usually used in flu research and, as Gs notes, absent from the sequence database. For immune response models mice are usually used - cheap and easy to work with - and for transmission studies ferrets - a more expensive mammalian model with both alpha 2,3 (Avian) & 2,6 (Mammalian) binding sites who sneeze to spread infection. I queried the GISAID database and they have a few A/pika/Qinghai/2007(H5N1) but no common rat.
Re. HIV
Immunocompromised patients are a big problem in drug resistance development. As they can be on several types of anti-biotic and anti-viral at the same time and often never come off them. They have been instrumental in the growth of MDR and XRD-TB. The only case of Relenza resistance I know of was in a immunocompromised patient who was put on Tamiflu and then developed a resistant form so was switched to Relenza to which they also developed a resistant strain. As their system never cleared the infection the virus just kept on trying combinations until it found one that worked. Release of drug resistant forms from such patients back onto the general population is a major concern in the battle to keep on top of microbial pathogens.
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
It was this ferret story ( http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6088/1534.full ) that made me think of rats as reservoir...
It was this ferret story ( http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6088/1534.full ) that made me think of rats as reservoir...
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
You are correct!
via twitter from @WHO: @HaertlG
@FluTrackers It's the same team.
You are correct!
via twitter from @WHO: @HaertlG
@FluTrackers It's the same team.