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Indonesia Human Cases May 16, 2006
- Thread starter LMonty
- Start date
- Status
Shannon Bennett
Well-known member
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
My vote is it is still too early to tell. One of the steps may be incremental changes rather than one giant leap. My suspicion is it has changed some but has not yet made the leap. And, I also suspect it has found a convenient vector. Pigs, cats or some other small mammal may be the culprit. Chicken manure arguments are getting a little thin.
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
My vote is it is still too early to tell. One of the steps may be incremental changes rather than one giant leap. My suspicion is it has changed some but has not yet made the leap. And, I also suspect it has found a convenient vector. Pigs, cats or some other small mammal may be the culprit. Chicken manure arguments are getting a little thin.
Last edited:
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Mother got sick April 27
thats 19 days from the beginning of this cluster.
There is a very real possibility that we have been seeing the very beginning as bubbles (thank you Barry) since last year... all small stops on the way to Pandemia.
The "final" mutation" may not be one big one... but a series of small steps as so many have speculated.
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Mother got sick April 27
thats 19 days from the beginning of this cluster.
There is a very real possibility that we have been seeing the very beginning as bubbles (thank you Barry) since last year... all small stops on the way to Pandemia.
The "final" mutation" may not be one big one... but a series of small steps as so many have speculated.
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
My day 49 was a little off. Here are the correct figures and their source.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5128474
A Flu Pandemic in Seattle
A computer simulation on how a pandemic might unfold in King County, Washington projected the number of new cases there would be each day during a severe pandemic.
Day 1
0 people sick
Day 28
31 people sick
Day 49
1,403 people sick
Day 77
57,623 people sick
Day 86 (Peak)
90,122 people sick
Day 98
36,267 people sick
Day 112
4,136 people sick
Day 126
390 people sick
Day 147
19 people sick
Day 168
1 people sick
Day 182
0 people sick
Cumulative number of people projected to contract the flu in King County,
Wash., during a severe pandemic: 828,950.
Sources: Timothy Germann, Kai Kadau and Catherine Macken, Los Alamos National Laboratory: Ira Longini, University of Washington
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
My day 49 was a little off. Here are the correct figures and their source.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5128474
A Flu Pandemic in Seattle
A computer simulation on how a pandemic might unfold in King County, Washington projected the number of new cases there would be each day during a severe pandemic.
Day 1
0 people sick
Day 28
31 people sick
Day 49
1,403 people sick
Day 77
57,623 people sick
Day 86 (Peak)
90,122 people sick
Day 98
36,267 people sick
Day 112
4,136 people sick
Day 126
390 people sick
Day 147
19 people sick
Day 168
1 people sick
Day 182
0 people sick
Cumulative number of people projected to contract the flu in King County,
Wash., during a severe pandemic: 828,950.
Sources: Timothy Germann, Kai Kadau and Catherine Macken, Los Alamos National Laboratory: Ira Longini, University of Washington
Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
ndonesia probes bird flu cluster; WHO alerted
Mon 15 May 2006 10:49 AM ET
(Adds WHO comment from Geneva)
JAKARTA, May 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia is investigating an outbreak of H5NI bird flu in up to eight members of a North Sumatran family, six of whom have died, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said on Monday.
Five of the eight, including four of the dead, showed positive for avian flu in local tests, while three other family members were suspected cases, the minister said.
Apriyantono added that the deadly virus had not yet been found in local poultry, which is normally the source for infections in humans.
In Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it was following the case closely because of the possibility of human-to-human infection.
Bird flu has killed 115 people, mostly in east Asia, since reappearing in 2003, with virtually all the victims catching the disease from poultry.
The United Nations' health agency is on alert for signs that the virus is mutating into one that can be easily transmitted between people, a development that could signal the start of a pandemic in which millions could die.
"It is something we are taking very seriously," said WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng about the Indonesian case. "Any time we have a possible cluster it raises suspicions that human-to-human transmission may have occurred," she told Reuters.
Experts have in the past said that cluster cases of possible bird flu cases among family members do not mean the virus is necessarily mutating. It could be caused by the close contact normal in families. There have been a number of such examples in Vietnam and Thailand, Cheng said.
"It may be that these people had common exposure, it may be that they caught the disease taking care of family members. Right now we do not know, but it is something that has caught our attention," she said.
Cheng said WHO hoped to know more in the next few days.
An Indonesian health ministry spokeswoman said blood samples of the five people who had tested positive locally had been sent to a WHO-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation. Local tests are not considered definitive.
The WHO also sent a team to North Sumatra to investigate the case, said Sari Setiogi, a spokeswoman for the agency.
"So far, an examination of chickens, ducks and pigs around the victims' houses has turned out negative," Apriyantono told reporters on the sidelines of a Food and Agriculture Organisation meeting in Jakarta. "But we still have to thoroughly investigate it as it's a complicated case." (Additional reporting by Richard Waddington in Geneva)
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L15751926
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
ndonesia probes bird flu cluster; WHO alerted
Mon 15 May 2006 10:49 AM ET
(Adds WHO comment from Geneva)
JAKARTA, May 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia is investigating an outbreak of H5NI bird flu in up to eight members of a North Sumatran family, six of whom have died, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said on Monday.
Five of the eight, including four of the dead, showed positive for avian flu in local tests, while three other family members were suspected cases, the minister said.
Apriyantono added that the deadly virus had not yet been found in local poultry, which is normally the source for infections in humans.
In Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it was following the case closely because of the possibility of human-to-human infection.
Bird flu has killed 115 people, mostly in east Asia, since reappearing in 2003, with virtually all the victims catching the disease from poultry.
The United Nations' health agency is on alert for signs that the virus is mutating into one that can be easily transmitted between people, a development that could signal the start of a pandemic in which millions could die.
"It is something we are taking very seriously," said WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng about the Indonesian case. "Any time we have a possible cluster it raises suspicions that human-to-human transmission may have occurred," she told Reuters.
Experts have in the past said that cluster cases of possible bird flu cases among family members do not mean the virus is necessarily mutating. It could be caused by the close contact normal in families. There have been a number of such examples in Vietnam and Thailand, Cheng said.
"It may be that these people had common exposure, it may be that they caught the disease taking care of family members. Right now we do not know, but it is something that has caught our attention," she said.
Cheng said WHO hoped to know more in the next few days.
An Indonesian health ministry spokeswoman said blood samples of the five people who had tested positive locally had been sent to a WHO-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation. Local tests are not considered definitive.
The WHO also sent a team to North Sumatra to investigate the case, said Sari Setiogi, a spokeswoman for the agency.
"So far, an examination of chickens, ducks and pigs around the victims' houses has turned out negative," Apriyantono told reporters on the sidelines of a Food and Agriculture Organisation meeting in Jakarta. "But we still have to thoroughly investigate it as it's a complicated case." (Additional reporting by Richard Waddington in Geneva)
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L15751926
Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Above story has just been pulled!
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Above story has just been pulled!
KC
Moderator
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
AnneZ, why did they pull the story?
Was it because of:
If I was the "W.H.O". I would want the story pulled also. Those that are followers can't always perform as leaders... or did they pull it because it because of "possibility of human-to-human infection"?
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
AnneZ, why did they pull the story?
Was it because of:
If I was the "W.H.O". I would want the story pulled also. Those that are followers can't always perform as leaders... or did they pull it because it because of "possibility of human-to-human infection"?
Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Apologies from me. It appears to be working fine now.
Re: Indonesia BF - 5/16/06
Apologies from me. It appears to be working fine now.
- Status