How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

HenryN · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

tolenio said:
Hi,

So we are looking for a 1918 pattern in attack profile and age groups, but a viral pathogenicity of 1957?

Tom

No, We are looking at at 1918 pathogenicity where the mild version in the spring primes patients, and then when those patients are infected in the fall with a related but distinct H1N1, the prior exposure primes the immune system which lauches an agreesive response which creates a cytokine storm and death in 20-55 age group.

Zac · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

niman said:
No, We are looking at at 1918 pathogenicity where the mild version in the spring primes patients, and then when those patients are infected in the fall with a related but distinct H1N1, the prior exposure primes the immune system which lauches an agreesive response which creates a cytokine storm and death in 20-55 age group.

Are you saying those infected in the first wave are more likely to die from a second wave than those who were not infected? If so, those participating in swine flu parties may be contributing to their undoing.

hawkeye · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

It's more of an "over-reaction" to battle the virus.

tolenio said:
Hello,

So it is the "primed" population that will have the worst influenza outcome in the autumn wave?

This would indicate that the immune system did not learn how to deal with it the first time?

Tom

tyto · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

It may also be possible for those exposed in the first wave that their immune system launches an ineffective attack against future variant swine H1N1 because of the mechanism of "original antigenic sin".

Original antigenic sin (first described in 1960 by Thomas Francis, Jr. in the article On the Doctrine of Original Antigenic Sin, according to Richard Krause, also known as the Hoskins effect) refers to the propensity of the body's immune system to preferentially utilize immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version, of that foreign entity (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections. The phenomenon of original antigenic sin has been described in relation to influenza virus, dengue fever, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and to several other viruses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin

HenryN · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

Zac said:
Are you saying those infected in the first wave are more likely to die from a second wave than those who were not infected? If so, those participating in swine flu parties may be contributing to their undoing.

I am citing this as a POSSIBILITY.

For the flu vaccine, two shots are required because the first exposure produces and modest response, which is higher after a booster shot.

That could apply to the 2009 virus when presented to the immune system a second time around. The second exposure could produce a more intense response, which could create problems, in view of examples of death by cytokine storm.

The pandmeic H1N1 is a swine flu that has jumped species, which can produce undesirable results.

HenryN · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

tolenio said:
Hello,

So it is the "primed" population that will have the worst influenza outcome in the autumn wave?

This would indicate that the immune system did not learn how to deal with it the first time?

Tom

The immune system has learned to mount a strong response.

If the virus has adapted and can spread more efficiently wihin the host, the rapid spread could lead to a cytokine storm when presented with a related virus for the second time.

I have dubbed this possiblity the "doomsday scenario".

HenryN · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

hawkeye said:
But are we even close to 1 death per 1000 yet?

We are still in the first wave. The swine H1N1 is still adapting to a human host.

hawkeye · Jul 26, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

With respects to the chart that was posted. If we are mapping correlation to 1918, then it seems we should start seeing at least 1 per 1000, or we are trailing the 1918 graph. Could the second wave occur later than Oct/Nov?

niman said:
We are still in the first wave. The swine H1N1 is still adapting to a human host.

sharon sanders · Jul 27, 2009

Re: Real Statastics?

Re: Real Statastics?

niman said:
Please. Google also has a "flutracker".

Google started their flutracker project after FluTrackers. I am not aware of their publicity campaign to sell their service. I think it is still in the development mode and, in fact, missed the swine flu outbreak in Mexico that was noticed and analyzed by our team.

My intention is to point out that the mapping project by Rhiza labs is not an effort that is sponsored by FT and that the numbers generated are not analyzed or verified by our methodology/team.

HenryN · Jul 27, 2009

Re: Real Statastics?

Re: Real Statastics?

Florida1 said:
Google started their flutracker project after FluTrackers. I am not aware of their publicity campaign to sell their service. I think it is still in the development mode and, in fact, missed the swine flu outbreak in Mexico that was noticed and analyzed by our team.

My intention is to point out that the mapping project by Rhiza labs is not an effort that is sponsored by FT and that the numbers generated are not analyzed or verified by our methodology/team.

How about Roche's flutracker. Do you verify their numbers??????
http://www.tamiflu.com/about/flutracker.aspx
You are posting nonsense.

HenryN · Jul 27, 2009

Re: Real Statastics?

Re: Real Statastics?

Florida1 said:
Google started their flutracker project after FluTrackers. I am not aware of their publicity campaign to sell their service. I think it is still in the development mode and, in fact, missed the swine flu outbreak in Mexico that was noticed and analyzed by our team.

My intention is to point out that the mapping project by Rhiza labs is not an effort that is sponsored by FT and that the numbers generated are not analyzed or verified by our methodology/team.

How about wikipedia? Do you verify their numbers???????

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak_by_country

Rocky · Jul 27, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

you do make a good point Niman,

it might be wise to contact each of these companies to let them know the use of the name is protected...

cash apologies will be accepted and all donations are tax deductible...

prepdeb · Jul 27, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

With all due respect, I think the "flutracker" reference is being distorted.

I had no trouble understanding Florida1's post regarding the use of the name or the unauthorized submission of material.

I think we all agree that it's important for this site to be cautious over what it "owns", if it will continue to be viewed as a credible source of information.

JMHO

Laidback Al · Jul 27, 2009

Re: Real Statastics?

Re: Real Statastics?

niman said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laidback Al
FluTrackers.com was established in 2006 as a non-profit charity. Since that time, FluTrackers.com has become a well respected worldwide disease tracking forum. All of it thanks to the volunteer efforts by members and posters who have helped build the forum to what it is today.
<o></o>
On the other hand, I believe Rhiza Labs co-opted the label FluTracker in early 2009 to present geographic information about influenza cases that were being tracked by Henry Niman (Niman here at FluTrackers). While information posted at the Rhiza Labs is publicly available under a Creative Commons License, Rhiza Labs is not a charity but a for-profit company. One can only conclude that Rhiza Labs chose the ?FluTracker? label to capitalized on the corporate goodwill that FluTrackers.com has built up over the years.

Click to expand...

Please. Google also has a "flutracker".

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> English capitalization rules do not include mid-word capitalization as reflected in the ?T? in FluTrackers.com. Rhiza Labs certainly co-opted the mid-word capitalization of FluTracker from FluTrackers.com.
<o

> </o

>
Imitation is the sincerest of flattery.

HenryN · Jul 27, 2009

Re: Real Statastics?

Re: Real Statastics?

Florida1 said:
Google started their flutracker project after FluTrackers. I am not aware of their publicity campaign to sell their service. I think it is still in the development mode and, in fact, missed the swine flu outbreak in Mexico that was noticed and analyzed by our team.

In the spirit of historical accuracy, although the deaths in Mexico were noted at flutrackers.com, posters (especially the poster who started the thread) were initially calling the outbreak a "mysterious disease" and then calling it SARS or atypical pneumonia, followed by claims that the deaths were NOT due to influenza A.

The linkage between Mexico and California were first made in a Commentary on April 22
(although I did post earlier at flutrackers.com that influenza A should NOT be excluded)

<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04220902/H1N1_CA_Swine_H2H.html">1st Commentary</a>

followed by another commentary that day, which included a MAP of the cases in California

<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04220903/H1N1_CA_Swine_H2H_SS.html">2nd Commentary</a>

The map has been viewed almost 5 million times

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=U...2.650649,-116.139221&spn=2.062781,3.99353&z=8

and the data shifted to Rhiza because the personal version of Google maps couldn't handle the volume or the number of data points.

The original map, commentaries, and upgraded map were not reviewed by Flutrackers.com, and no such claim was ever made or implied.

The flutracker name is widespread and was used by Roche at its site designed to promote Tamiflu (well before the creation of this site).

The data at Rhiza is public (the VAST majority comes from agency reports) and are linked, so it can be verified by anyone who follows the links or downloads the spreadsheet of the underlying data.

The map definitely tracks flu (pandemic).

HenryN · Jul 27, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

tolenio said:
Hello All,

We began by discussing the accuracy of WHO numbers but we have shifted into a copyright debate.

Copyright debates are fine, but to hold a debate in a home, while the neighbors home is burning (southern hemisphere) makes little sense.

How accurate are the numbers we are being fed by officials is still a valid question.

Tom

Asked & Answered.

sharon sanders · Jul 27, 2009

Re: How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

Niman -

The point is that we are a team here, of which you are an important part.

Your commentaries on April 22 were very important.

My first post as a result of information that I was hearing about the cases in Mexico was this - something newly posted at the CDC site which meant the situation was serious.

The News Analysts on FT were extremely fundamental to the discovery of this outbreak with the first post being made on April 17th here. A thread with over 18,300 (real) hits.

Teamwork and Accuracy. This is what we are known for.

All of us. Together.

We may not always be the first one with the news, but we are the ones that many turn to for accurate data. Data that is supported by commentaries, 2nd and 3rd and 4th sources, maps, analysis, health tips, prevention methodologies, related issues........

Day in, day out.

Month in, month out.

Year in, and year out.

Thank you to everyone. It is a privilege to work with you to help our fellow man.

How accurate are the WHO statistics on H1N1 deaths?

HenryN

Retired

Zac

Well-known member

hawkeye

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tyto

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HenryN

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HenryN

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HenryN

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hawkeye

Well-known member

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President

HenryN

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HenryN

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Rocky

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prepdeb

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Laidback Al

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HenryN

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HenryN

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sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President