Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

[GennieF]

Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

By Steve Sternberg, USA TODAY
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano asserted Tuesday that pandemic flu is likely to flare up soon after schools open in the fall, well before any vaccine is available.

Napolitano also acknowledged that there would not be enough pandemic flu vaccine for everyone, at least in the early stages of the flu season. "There will be prioritization of vaccinations," she told members of the USA TODAY editorial board.

The flu strain causing the pandemic, a new strain of H1N1 flu that is also known as swine flu, is especially dangerous because it is genetically different from virtually every other known flu virus. As a result, most people are defenseless against it ? making vaccine the keystone of any effort to prevent illness and save lives.

Napolitano said the flu epidemic is likely to be severe, but not as severe as the 1918 pandemic, the world's worst. In 1918, flu killed at least 675,000 people in the USA and up to 50 million worldwide. She said it's more likely that the pandemic would mirror 1957, when flu killed about 70,000 people in the USA and more than one million people worldwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That's about twice the death toll of seasonal flu, which annually kills about 36,000 people and results in 200,000 hospitalizations.

Napolitano's statement that flu vaccine will be provided first to certain high risk groups indicates that the Obama administration accepts the consensus now established among public health experts inside of government and elsewhere.

Last week, a panel of experts advised the CDC that the first vaccinations should go to pregnant women; parents and contacts of children younger than six months; health care workers; all children and young adults and all non-elderly adults with chronic medical conditions.

The government has ordered 195 million doses of swine flu vaccine from five manufacturers, along with immune boosters called adjuvants that may be needed to ramp up the vaccine's potency. So far, the federal government has spent about $1 billion on pandemic flu vaccine, with an additional $350 million disbursed to states, territories and hospitals for more vaccine purchases and to build surge capacity in emergency rooms and intensive care units.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-08-04-swinefluoutbreak-pandemic_N.htm

 

[JimO]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

I find it interesting that although there doesn't appear to be any new information that the CDC and other agencies have discovered in recent weeks, they seem to be slowly raising the level of concern. The various agencies are working in tandem to do so. The progress, as I see it, is a follows:

- Swine flu is no different than seasonal influenza which kills 36,000 people in the U.S. every year. Cover your mouth and wash your hands.

- A vaccine will be ready by September/October, and besides, swine flu is no different, etc.

- Novel A/H1N1 flu vaccine development isn't producing sufficient yields, there could be delays, and besides Novel A/H1N1 flu is no different, etc.

- People with pre-existing health conditions (including pregnancy) have died. Although every death is tragic, Novel A/H1N1 is no different, etc.

- Pregnant women (which is a pre-existing condition) represent 6% of the deaths from 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu, and, thus are considered a high risk group.

(Somewhere in here Margaret Chan publicly states that there is no vaccine and one might not be readily available until well into the Northern Hemisphere flu season)

- WHO announced today that Dr. Chan is taking an extended vacation to be with her family (has she been heard from since?).

- Without an effective vaccine, the CDC estimates that several hundred thousand people in the U.S. could die from 2009 Pandemic H1N1 over the next two years.

- Limited quantities of vaccine should be available in October to combat the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu.

- Tamiflu resistant strains of 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu have been detected at isolated locations from several nations, but there is no clinical concern. The makers of Tamiflu expect 0.5% resistance (move on, nothing to see here folks).

- In a media update, the CDC would not confirm their estimates that as many as several hundred thousand people in the U.S. could die from the 2009 Pandemic 2009 H1N1 flu.

- Pregnant women represent the highest at risk group and will be the first to receive (limited supplies of) vaccine that might be ready in October.

- The WHO estimates that 2 billion people will contract Pandemic 2009 H1N1 before it's all over.

- Officials are concerned about Tamiflu resistance in the Pandemic 2009 H1N1.

- Samples indicated potential Relenza resistance in samples of Pandemic 2009 H1N1.

(Finally today we get the story above.) We've gone from nothing more than seasonal flu all the way to a pandemic on the order of 1957 (but nothing like 1918), during which 70,000 people died in the U.S., which is only twice that of seasonal flu.

My predictions for future announcements:

- Given the population in 1957, we can expect to see over 100,000 deaths in the U.S., with our current population, which is only three times as many as the seasonal flu.

- Widespread Tamiflu and Relenza resistance has developed in Pandemic 2009 H1N1, but this pandemic is expected to only be three times as severe as seasonal influenza. Be sure to cover your mouth and wash your hands.

- Vaccines will be ready for deployment before the holidays for some high risk groups such as pregnant women.

- CDC estimates that based on the anticipated fatality rate and an estimated 40% of the population getting sick, approximately 250,000 deaths are expected in the U.S., which is only seven times the number that die in an average year from seasonal influenza.

- Vaccine makers announced that large-scale deployment of vaccines has been delayed until after the first of the year.

- Due to adverse reactions experienced by many who have been vaccinated, large scale production of vaccines has been postponed until additional testing is completed.

- Based on information from affected areas, officials estimate that only 360,000 deaths are expected in the U.S. this season from Pandemic 2009 H1N1, and those will be predominantly people in high risk groups. This number is only ten times the number that die annually from seasonal influenza. Remember to wash your hands and cover your mouth.

Sorry, but I needed a diversion.

 

[wotan]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

I find it interesting that although there doesn't appear to be any new information that the CDC and other agencies have discovered in recent weeks, they seem to be slowly raising the level of concern. The various agencies are working in tandem to do so. The progress, as I see it, is a follows:

- Swine flu is no different than seasonal influenza which kills 36,000 people in the U.S. every year. Cover your mouth and wash your hands.

- A vaccine will be ready by September/October, and besides, swine flu is no different, etc.

- Novel A/H1N1 flu vaccine development isn't producing sufficient yields, there could be delays, and besides Novel A/H1N1 flu is no different, etc.

- People with pre-existing health conditions (including pregnancy) have died. Although every death is tragic, Novel A/H1N1 is no different, etc.

- Pregnant women (which is a pre-existing condition) represent 6% of the deaths from 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu, and, thus are considered a high risk group.

(Somewhere in here Margaret Chan publicly states that there is no vaccine and one might not be readily available until well into the Northern Hemisphere flu season)

- WHO announced today that Dr. Chan is taking an extended vacation to be with her family (has she been heard from since?).

- Without an effective vaccine, the CDC estimates that several hundred thousand people in the U.S. could die from 2009 Pandemic H1N1 over the next two years.

- Limited quantities of vaccine should be available in October to combat the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu.

- Tamiflu resistant strains of 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu have been detected at isolated locations from several nations, but there is no clinical concern. The makers of Tamiflu expect 0.5% resistance (move on, nothing to see here folks).

- In a media update, the CDC would not confirm their estimates that as many as several hundred thousand people in the U.S. could die from the 2009 Pandemic 2009 H1N1 flu.

- Pregnant women represent the highest at risk group and will be the first to receive (limited supplies of) vaccine that might be ready in October.

- The WHO estimates that 2 billion people will contract Pandemic 2009 H1N1 before it's all over.

- Officials are concerned about Tamiflu resistance in the Pandemic 2009 H1N1.

- Samples indicated potential Relenza resistance in samples of Pandemic 2009 H1N1.

(Finally today we get the story above.) We've gone from nothing more than seasonal flu all the way to a pandemic on the order of 1957 (but nothing like 1918), during which 70,000 people died in the U.S., which is only twice that of seasonal flu.

My predictions for future announcements:

- Given the population in 1957, we can expect to see over 100,000 deaths in the U.S., with our current population, which is only three times as many as the seasonal flu.

- Widespread Tamiflu and Relenza resistance has developed in Pandemic 2009 H1N1, but this pandemic is expected to only be three times as severe as seasonal influenza. Be sure to cover your mouth and wash your hands.

- Vaccines will be ready for deployment before the holidays for some high risk groups such as pregnant women.

- CDC estimates that based on the anticipated fatality rate and an estimated 40% of the population getting sick, approximately 250,000 deaths are expected in the U.S., which is only seven times the number that die in an average year from seasonal influenza.

- Vaccine makers announced that large-scale deployment of vaccines has been delayed until after the first of the year.

- Due to adverse reactions experienced by many who have been vaccinated, large scale production of vaccines has been postponed until additional testing is completed.

- Based on information from affected areas, officials estimate that only 360,000 deaths are expected in the U.S. this season from Pandemic 2009 H1N1, and those will be predominantly people in high risk groups. This number is only ten times the number that die annually from seasonal influenza. Remember to wash your hands and cover your mouth.

Sorry, but I needed a diversion.

Sadly, I think that is spot on.

Did anyone else catch a little misdirection here? Napolitano says she expects a severe flu epidemic, but then says it won't be severe, like the mild to moderate 1968 and 1957 pandemics?

 

[St Michael]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

First they said a mild pandemic, less virulent than seasonal flu. Then they said a moderate level of virulence. Now they are saying severe, but not as bad as 1918. What will they be saying in September/October?

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

I hope they never say "worse than 1918, but not as bad as the Black Plague of the 1300s".

.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

First they said a mild pandemic, less virulent than seasonal flu. Then they said a moderate level of virulence. Now they are saying severe, but not as bad as 1918. What will they be saying in September/October?

I think they are taking their talking points from what is happening in the summer hemisphere.

As the virus progresses and we see how it peaks in places like Australia that should provide us with an idea of how bad it is going to be.

Personally, I think in 3-4 weeks we should have a really good idea what we are in for in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

I hope they never say "worse than 1918, but not as bad as the Black Plague of the 1300s".

.

Oy Veh! Yeah, that wouldn't freak anybody out....me included.

 

[wotan]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

I hope they never say "worse than 1918, but not as bad as the Black Plague of the 1300s".

.

Ahh but you see, 1918 killed more people. So the Black Death was obviously mild and we should expect this flu pandemic to be likewise.

Forget about that pesky 50% mortality rate in the Black Death...

 

[gsgs]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

> Swine flu is no different than seasonal influenza which
> kills 36,000 people in the U.S. every year.

but swine flu only killed ~500 people in USA for one wave so far

 

[wotan]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

> Swine flu is no different than seasonal influenza which
> kills 36,000 people in the U.S. every year.

but swine flu only killed ~500 people in USA for one wave so far

Ehh, last year there were <100 officially reported deaths from flu in the US, all children (unless someone can find something I haven't). Apples and oranges. You can't compare estimated deaths versus confirmed deaths. Let's gets some estimates of how many in the US have died already or let's see how many Americans are known to have died from flu from June to August over the last few years. Then we can talk.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

is this a Napolitano-prediction or a CDC-prediction or a government prediction
or no prediction at all, just what they want us to think ?

What is it based on ? Will we see a paper as with the Ferguson prediction ?

Will other experts comment ?

Do they know more than we , what they don't tell us ?

 

[silvergirl]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

I find it interesting that although there doesn't appear to be any new information that the CDC and other agencies have discovered in recent weeks, they seem to be slowly raising the level of concern. The various agencies are working in tandem to do so. The progress, as I see it, is a follows:

- Swine flu is no different than seasonal influenza which kills 36,000 people in the U.S. every year. Cover your mouth and wash your hands.

- A vaccine will be ready by September/October, and besides, swine flu is no different, etc.

- Novel A/H1N1 flu vaccine development isn't producing sufficient yields, there could be delays, and besides Novel A/H1N1 flu is no different, etc.

- People with pre-existing health conditions (including pregnancy) have died. Although every death is tragic, Novel A/H1N1 is no different, etc.

- Pregnant women (which is a pre-existing condition) represent 6% of the deaths from 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu, and, thus are considered a high risk group.

(Somewhere in here Margaret Chan publicly states that there is no vaccine and one might not be readily available until well into the Northern Hemisphere flu season)

- WHO announced today that Dr. Chan is taking an extended vacation to be with her family (has she been heard from since?).

- Without an effective vaccine, the CDC estimates that several hundred thousand people in the U.S. could die from 2009 Pandemic H1N1 over the next two years.

- Limited quantities of vaccine should be available in October to combat the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu.

- Tamiflu resistant strains of 2009 Pandemic H1N1 flu have been detected at isolated locations from several nations, but there is no clinical concern. The makers of Tamiflu expect 0.5% resistance (move on, nothing to see here folks).

- In a media update, the CDC would not confirm their estimates that as many as several hundred thousand people in the U.S. could die from the 2009 Pandemic 2009 H1N1 flu.

- Pregnant women represent the highest at risk group and will be the first to receive (limited supplies of) vaccine that might be ready in October.

- The WHO estimates that 2 billion people will contract Pandemic 2009 H1N1 before it's all over.

- Officials are concerned about Tamiflu resistance in the Pandemic 2009 H1N1.

- Samples indicated potential Relenza resistance in samples of Pandemic 2009 H1N1.

(Finally today we get the story above.) We've gone from nothing more than seasonal flu all the way to a pandemic on the order of 1957 (but nothing like 1918), during which 70,000 people died in the U.S., which is only twice that of seasonal flu.

My predictions for future announcements:

- Given the population in 1957, we can expect to see over 100,000 deaths in the U.S., with our current population, which is only three times as many as the seasonal flu.

- Widespread Tamiflu and Relenza resistance has developed in Pandemic 2009 H1N1, but this pandemic is expected to only be three times as severe as seasonal influenza. Be sure to cover your mouth and wash your hands.

- Vaccines will be ready for deployment before the holidays for some high risk groups such as pregnant women.

- CDC estimates that based on the anticipated fatality rate and an estimated 40% of the population getting sick, approximately 250,000 deaths are expected in the U.S., which is only seven times the number that die in an average year from seasonal influenza.

- Vaccine makers announced that large-scale deployment of vaccines has been delayed until after the first of the year.

- Due to adverse reactions experienced by many who have been vaccinated, large scale production of vaccines has been postponed until additional testing is completed.

- Based on information from affected areas, officials estimate that only 360,000 deaths are expected in the U.S. this season from Pandemic 2009 H1N1, and those will be predominantly people in high risk groups. This number is only ten times the number that die annually from seasonal influenza. Remember to wash your hands and cover your mouth.

Sorry, but I needed a diversion.

You need to add they started with "influenza usually kills elderly and the very sick" -to begin with and end with -"oh and btw it is going to kill most of the people in the forefront of the workforce and healthcare frontlines-ages 20-40 year olds---which is just like 1918---but dont worry....unless you are one of those people!" Otherwise it will only be a severe pandemic....(still reading Barry's book....doubly dead-the very young who died).

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

> Swine flu is no different than seasonal influenza which
> kills 36,000 people in the U.S. every year.

but swine flu only killed ~500 people in USA for one wave so far

The US deaths so far were OUT OF SEASON!

So to compare apples to apples, you need to compare ~500 to the normal summer deaths, not seasonal.

.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

compare with Australia,New Zealand,Chile,Argentina

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

Sadly, I think that is spot on.

Did anyone else catch a little misdirection here? Napolitano says she expects a severe flu epidemic, but then says it won't be severe, like the mild to moderate 1968 and 1957 pandemics?

Please be aware that the 1957 and 1968 pandemics had hospitalization rates and case fatality factors about the same as a typical flu season, however, like all novel viruses in which there is no herd immunity, the clinical infection rates were substantially higher than seasonal flu.

So, the total number of deaths accumulated throughout the 1957 and 1968 pandemic periods were higher, not because of virulence, but because of transmissability.

 

[rootcellargal]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

Thank you JimO and others for giving me a good laugh on a day when I am otherwise worried sick that they are going to try not to close the schools! Thank goodness for humor...

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

....during January and February 1958, there was another wave of illness among the elderly

So the elderly need their 2 shots prior to January (or February 1st at the latest).

How comforting to know that everyone else will have had their's and there will be plenty for the elderly by then.

.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

** infects the young and they usually don't die.

We don't expect many "silent deaths" from ** as is typical
for normal flu (36000 per year in the 90s)


look at the number of all deaths in a country, which usually shows
seasonality. Compare 2009 with previous years.

I think so far ** kills fewer people than seasonal flu.

But these are often young,healthy people whose deaths are "worse"
than the deaths of old people who would probably die in the next
years anyway.
Does Napolitano mean this, when she compares ** with 1957,
(that caused 70000 deaths in USA) ?

She can't mean that CDC expects 70000 deaths from **
in the fall ?!?!? (We didn't see such things in the Southern
Hemisphere)
According to the Serfling model which they use for seasonal flu's
36000.

So, what does she mean ? And what additional info do they have ?

 

[silvergirl]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

not the place to ask I suppose but where is Margaret Chan? I just think that the world could use THE spokesperson for the WHO right now....to clarify any inconsistencies. I feel as if we are left floundering...

 

[gsgs]

Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall

oops, it's homeland security , not CDC

so, what does CDC say ?
They should know it better than homeland security