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h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
- Thread starter sbrooks
- Start date
Legadillo
Resident
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
Good topic!
Its always mutating...the issue is what's the significance of the mutation? My big question is, has it become more lethal. What I find disturbing is that in a 14 day period have been about 124 known deaths and almost 2,000 hospitalizatons in the US alone. This doesn't necessarly mean it is more lethal but it is something to keep an eye on.
Good topic!
Its always mutating...the issue is what's the significance of the mutation? My big question is, has it become more lethal. What I find disturbing is that in a 14 day period have been about 124 known deaths and almost 2,000 hospitalizatons in the US alone. This doesn't necessarly mean it is more lethal but it is something to keep an eye on.
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
It's a relative term only. The existing Swine Flu has been categorized by the CDC into five major variants. Two of these have almost disappeared. One has become increasingly dominant. All have numerous mutations and changes that distinguish them, however, none of those changes have been of much significance.
So, one might take the position that this virus is stable in terms of its virulence.
I don't understand how a virus can ever be considered "stable"?? I thought viruses constantly mutate.
It's a relative term only. The existing Swine Flu has been categorized by the CDC into five major variants. Two of these have almost disappeared. One has become increasingly dominant. All have numerous mutations and changes that distinguish them, however, none of those changes have been of much significance.
So, one might take the position that this virus is stable in terms of its virulence.
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
I'm not sure we could detect a slight increase in virulence. The same factors that make us unable to determine precisely the CFR of H1N1 (missed mild cases, incomplete testing and reporting, misdiagnoses. etc.) make us unable to detect slight changes in virulence.
If a variant of this virus emerged with a 10% CFR or greater, that we would liekly detect in the form of a death cluster (not just a geographical one, but a familiar or nosocomial one). It would look like the SARS outbreak. But short of something like that, I don't think we would detect a slight increase in virulence.
I'm not sure we could detect a slight increase in virulence. The same factors that make us unable to determine precisely the CFR of H1N1 (missed mild cases, incomplete testing and reporting, misdiagnoses. etc.) make us unable to detect slight changes in virulence.
If a variant of this virus emerged with a 10% CFR or greater, that we would liekly detect in the form of a death cluster (not just a geographical one, but a familiar or nosocomial one). It would look like the SARS outbreak. But short of something like that, I don't think we would detect a slight increase in virulence.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
we have death counts and infection counts, ILI surveillance data
from many countries.
Some countries also provide sequences.
That could give some clues, evidence
Currently it seems that differences in virulence in some countries
are not due to mutations.
Although they found such differences in ferrets-studies.
we have death counts and infection counts, ILI surveillance data
from many countries.
Some countries also provide sequences.
That could give some clues, evidence
Currently it seems that differences in virulence in some countries
are not due to mutations.
Although they found such differences in ferrets-studies.
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
Sequences - that is a good point. You might see signs of a significant mutation show up in the sequences before you detect it in death clusters. If we saw, for example, a significiant chunk of H5N1 sequence inserted into the H1N1 virus, that would be a very large red flag.
Sequences - that is a good point. You might see signs of a significant mutation show up in the sequences before you detect it in death clusters. If we saw, for example, a significiant chunk of H5N1 sequence inserted into the H1N1 virus, that would be a very large red flag.
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
I'd also we watching sequences for genes from H9N2, which is prevalent in SE Asian birds, but then many of those are shared with H5N1.
.
I'd say either path is a possibility. Regarding H5N1, I'd look for ANY size string of genes. Mamabird has already pointed out single genes that are also found in H5N1.
I'd also we watching sequences for genes from H9N2, which is prevalent in SE Asian birds, but then many of those are shared with H5N1.
.
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
Thank you for the posts; obviously you all have substantial knowledge regarding this situation. Am I wrong to pay attention only to "sudden onset of symptoms,
such as "bluish skin tone, ventilators, cytokine storm, immune system overreaction? These seem to be the most common "clues" of increased
lethality, correct? Any other medical jargon words throw up a red flag?
Thank you for the posts; obviously you all have substantial knowledge regarding this situation. Am I wrong to pay attention only to "sudden onset of symptoms,
such as "bluish skin tone, ventilators, cytokine storm, immune system overreaction? These seem to be the most common "clues" of increased
lethality, correct? Any other medical jargon words throw up a red flag?
Laidback Al
Well-known member
Re: h1n1 mutation: what signs are we looking for?
Increased lethality is not recognizable on a case by case basis. Individuals will react differently to the infection depending on genetics, current health, load exposure, prior conditions, etc. Rather, it will be recognized statistically based on epidemiological and clinical analyses of a number cases. Of course, as noted by alert, sequence analysis may provide advanced clues of increasing lethality based on known changes that affect lethality.
Increased lethality is not recognizable on a case by case basis. Individuals will react differently to the infection depending on genetics, current health, load exposure, prior conditions, etc. Rather, it will be recognized statistically based on epidemiological and clinical analyses of a number cases. Of course, as noted by alert, sequence analysis may provide advanced clues of increasing lethality based on known changes that affect lethality.