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FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 - July 12

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Did you read my methodology? Does it seem sound given what I have to work with?

Well, we have to rely on reports published in the press while the PH officials are privy to all the information.

Given what we have to work with, I think the methodology is fine. I wish the PH community would share their information with the public, medical and scientific community but within North American they have chosen not to.

Under these adverse circumstances, the collection of data on US deaths by Appleblossum and yourself is laudatory in the extreme. Where else can one interested in this topic obtain this information? Nowhere.

Now, I do not mean to say that the yeomen work done by ReadyMom and other flublogia folks on this issue is not of use. On the contrary, it is critical to have correlate sources of data to compare with because it is the only way for the data posted here to be error checked. We are fortunate to have multiple sources available to cross check out data.

This is no game. There is no winner. There is no competition between those on flublogia who have independently collected this data. What we are seeing is an example of what a free people of great nation is capable of doing on their own to provide those of us who are interested in this is with insight into a very uncertain event that our government has decided, by their actions that is something we, The People have no need to know about.

Well we may disagree with the US government's lack of transparency on this issue but because in this country we have a Bill of Rights that protects our freedom of speech, we here on this and other US flublogia sites are able to say what we wish even when our speech is not in agreement with our governments or indeed disagrees with it or condemns the government's actions is quite remarkable. God Bless American!

When there is agreement or lets say similar but not exact numbers of events that are being collected independently by several experienced flublogia investigators working on their own, then this almost always means that the essence of the data is reliable.

So, yes Wotan, it is clear that within the US the "apparent" numbers of healthy people dying from the novel strain has increased as the pandemic has continued.

By "apparent" I suggest that I have been suspicious of the labeling of so many of those who died during this pandemic as having pre-excising medical conditions and remain so. What I mean by this is that I think that if we are ever provided with the clinical facts for each of these deaths we would discover that while some maybe the majority of these claims by PH officials that the deceased had pre-existing medical conditions that contributed to their deaths, we will discover that the conditions cited for many others were not contributory. This is my opinion but not something that I have any proof of.

The fact that the database you have kept shows that as the pandemic has progressed, the number or US deaths reported officially by the PH officials have not included statements about the deceased having pre-existing medical conditions that predispose them to death from flu is very significant.

Keep up the good work. Where else can anyone get this information? Nowhere that's where.

Thank you for your contribution. It has added significantly to our understanding of this pandemic.

GW
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

By "apparent" I suggest that I have been suspicious of the labeling of so many of those who died during this pandemic as having pre-excising medical conditions and remain so. What I mean by this is that I think that if we are ever provided with the clinical facts for each of these deaths we would discover that while some maybe the majority of these claims by PH officials that the deceased had pre-existing medical conditions that contributed to their deaths, we will discover that the conditions cited for many others were not contributory. This is my opinion but not something that I have any proof of.

As stated, I passed judgment in only a couple of cases where family members disputed the presence of any underlying condition. Otherwise, even if it was outlandish (really, will apnea kill you if you are wide awake, or if you are on a vent which is likely much more effective than a CPAP?) So, I believe the percentage is much higher than I am showing. And it is telling that the WHO recently stated one third to one half of serious cases have been in healthy individuals. The CDC, apparently, is still holding most cases having underlying conditions.

Keep up the good work. Where else can anyone get this information? Nowhere that's where.

Thank you for the kind words, and thank you also to the many others here who contribute the invaluable data, I am simply processing it and supplying very little of it.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

wotan,

How did you handle the latest group of New York deaths where they said that "most" of the fatalities had underlying conditions?
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

wotan,

How did you handle the latest group of New York deaths where they said that "most" of the fatalities had underlying conditions?

No data at all to tie to a case, therefore I treated them all as no underlying conditions.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

well said GW :) and I'll chime in and say thanks to all for the contributions and info on this thread. And thanks especially to all you other flu-trackers out there in web-land! I'm an incurable cross-checker, so whether you know it or not you are contributing to this list too!

Duval County FL slipped under my radar yesterday, it was included in the report about the Palm Beach fatality.

Also I think I have sorted out the CA discrepancies (thanks to Jim for going cross-eyed trying to figure that one out). So we are at 35 for CA. Feel free to double check my math...

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263853#post263853
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Flutrackers Confirmed U.S. Fatalities 7/10/09 .....
*Fatalities are listed by probable location of infection, not by the victim's state of residency, when the two are different. Totals may not match each state's official number of reported deaths.


Arizona - 11
California - 35
Connecticut - 6
Florida - 9
Hawaii - 1
Illinois - 13
Maryland - 2
Massachusetts - 4
Michigan - 8
Minnesota - 3
Missouri - 1
Nevada - 3
New Jersey - 10
New York - 63
North Carolina - 2
Ohio - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Oregon - 4
Pennsylvania - 6**
Rhode Island - 2
Texas - 22
Utah - 14
Virginia - 2
Washington - 4
Wisconsin - 4

TOTAL - 231*
*This number represents deaths as described and reported in the media. The known CFR of H1N1 is 0.4%
**Might include 1 or more listings counted from other states


#227 California - Santa Cruz, middle aged woman died 7/7/09 reported 7/9/09 *underlying health conditions which put her at risk for severe illness
#228 California - San Mateo County, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#229 California - San Francisco, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#230 California - Sacramento, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#231 Florida - Duval County, Jacksonville 55 year old man died 7/1/09 reported 7/9/09 *chronic lung disease, H1N1 confirmed postmortem



U.S. Deaths Abroad:
*not included in the U.S. total above.

#1 Canada, Ontario - Mill Valley, California resident Robert A. Derzon, a 78 year old man, died in Orangeville while visiting a friend, died 6/17/09 reported 6/17/09 *son confirms that it was H1N1


Suspected Deaths are now being tracked by pflu in a new thread, found here.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

We've crept up to 54.5% with no announced underlying conditions.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

We've crept up to 54.5% with no announced underlying conditions.

What's the general prevalence of undiagnosed medical conditions in the populations?

In other words, we often hear how diabetes goes undiagnosed for years. Similarly with cancers or even COPD, especially if there is a social-economic gradient in medical care (no, this is not a entry to a medicare-private care debate).

Can we make a reasonable estimate of how many of the 54.5% probably have an undiagnosed underlying condition?

J.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

As I posted elsewhere this morning, it is highly likely the bulk of the population has some form of underlying condition (for instance, how many people have been infected with some form of a herpes virus? Ever have mono, or chickenpox, or cold sores? These viruses cause chronic infections, but is it reasonable to state that they are contributory to someone's death from flu?) We need data on how these purported underlying conditions actually contributed to someone's death, or were they simply present?
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

There that chart, slide 4 I believe, in the CDC director's briefing for June that has the % of underlying conditions in the fatalities. Could not that be used to set up list of risky complications for flu victims? Then the general prevalence of those conditions from some other source, omitting the more general diseases like mono, etc. Then estimates of the prevalence in the 54.5%.

I guess this idea is leading to a secondary warning to people. If there is a high level of undiagnosed conditions that exacerbate the outcome from H1, and a basic symptom list for those conditions, people may want to take more efforts to get those conditions diagnosed, and then take even further precautions against flu.

J.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

As I posted elsewhere this morning, it is highly likely the bulk of the population has some form of underlying condition (for instance, how many people have been infected with some form of a herpes virus? Ever have mono, or chickenpox, or cold sores? These viruses cause chronic infections, but is it reasonable to state that they are contributory to someone's death from flu?) We need data on how these purported underlying conditions actually contributed to someone's death, or were they simply present?
I agree. This could be taken so far that only a small minority of people in the U.S. would not have underlying conditions. If you think about it, why isn't old age just as much an underlying condition as being overweight? If so, then the vast majority of seasonal flu deaths could be explained by underlying conditions, thus "normal" seasonal flu only kills a few thousand people per year, not 36,000.

As far as I'm concerned, if someone dies because they got the flu who would not otherwise have died in the short-term from another health problem, then the flu is what caused their death. But that's just my non-professional opinion. Others in the medical or biomedical professions might have a better technical definition for true underlying health conditions that warrant qualifying a given death announcement. But, if everyone has an underlying condition, then that qualifier (which should be used to warn those who are most vulnerable and not simply to avoid panic) becomes meaningless. There is already evidence that the public is beginning to catch on. I've seen some fairly sarcastic comments regarding underlying conditions posted on media websites announcing new deaths.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

A bit more updated info on some of the victims:

Palm Beach fatality was a pregnant woman ? her baby survived.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2009/07/10/0710swineflu.html

---------------------------------------------------------------
60-year-old woman from Bell Co., TX ?The woman did have another illness, and may have had a compromised immune system, according to a source close to the family.?

http://www.tdtnews.com/story/2009/7/9/59161
---------------------------------------------------------------

CA #24 ? 44-year-old woman in Santa Clara Co. had ?underlying health problems?

http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=1711

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan#8 ? ?An Oakland County man in his 50s died this week after a three-week hospital stay, according to the department's website. Reports said that the man had other health problems in addition to the virus.?

http://www.wwj.com/Swine-Flu-Kills-Oakland-County-Man/4775813
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

First death in Bell Co. Texas. No details whatsoever.

A 60-year-old Temple woman is Bell County's first H1N1 flu victim, the Bell County Public Health District reported Thursday.

District officials would not say what day the woman died or provide any other information about the case.


http://www.kdhnews.com/news/story.aspx?s=34470
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Flutrackers Confirmed U.S. Fatalities 7/10/09 .....
*Fatalities are listed by probable location of infection, not by the victim's state of residency, when the two are different. Totals may not match each state's official number of reported deaths.


Arizona - 11
California - 35
Connecticut - 6
Florida - 9
Hawaii - 1
Illinois - 14
Maryland - 2
Massachusetts - 4
Michigan - 8
Minnesota - 3
Missouri - 1
Nevada - 3
New Jersey - 10
New York - 63
North Carolina - 2
Ohio - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Oregon - 4
Pennsylvania - 6**
Rhode Island - 2
Texas - 22
Utah - 14
Virginia - 2
Washington - 4
Wisconsin - 4

TOTAL - 232*
*This number represents deaths as described and reported in the media. The known CFR of H1N1 is 0.4%
**Might include 1 or more listings counted from other states


#227 California - Santa Cruz, middle aged woman died 7/7/09 reported 7/9/09 *underlying health conditions which put her at risk for severe illness
#228 California - San Mateo County, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#229 California - San Francisco, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#230 California - Sacramento, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#231 Florida - Duval County, Jacksonville 55 year old man died 7/1/09 reported 7/9/09 *chronic lung disease, H1N1 confirmed postmortem
#232 Illinois - no location, unidentified person reported 7/10/09 by IL DPH



U.S. Deaths Abroad:
*not included in the U.S. total above.

#1 Canada, Ontario - Mill Valley, California resident Robert A. Derzon, a 78 year old man, died in Orangeville while visiting a friend, died 6/17/09 reported 6/17/09 *son confirms that it was H1N1


Suspected Deaths are now being tracked by pflu in a new thread, found here.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

thanks Thebes for the extra details. I've updated our details list.

Medtroll, we've got Bell County TX, check post #187 on page 7, she's listed as TX #22.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Flutrackers Confirmed U.S. Fatalities 7/10/09 .....
*Fatalities are listed by probable location of infection, not by the victim's state of residency, when the two are different. Totals may not match each state's official number of reported deaths.


Arizona - 11
California - 35
Connecticut - 6
Florida - 11
Hawaii - 1
Illinois - 14
Maryland - 2
Massachusetts - 4
Michigan - 8
Minnesota - 3
Missouri - 1
Nevada - 3
New Jersey - 10
New York - 63
North Carolina - 2
Ohio - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Oregon - 4
Pennsylvania - 6**
Rhode Island - 2
Texas - 22
Utah - 14
Virginia - 2
Washington - 4
Wisconsin - 4

TOTAL - 234*
*This number represents deaths as described and reported in the media. The known CFR of H1N1 is 0.4%
**Might include 1 or more listings counted from other states


#227 California - Santa Cruz, middle aged woman died 7/7/09 reported 7/9/09 *underlying health conditions which put her at risk for severe illness
#228 California - San Mateo County, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#229 California - San Francisco, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#230 California - Sacramento, unidentified person reported 7/9/09 by CA DPH website
#231 Florida - Duval County, Jacksonville 55 year old man died 7/1/09 reported 7/9/09 *chronic lung disease, H1N1 confirmed postmortem
#232 Illinois - no location, unidentified person reported 7/10/09 by IL DPH
#233 Florida - Miami-Dade County, 51 year old man reported 7/10/09
#234 Florida - Miami-Dade County, 53 year old woman reported 7/10/09



U.S. Deaths Abroad:
*not included in the U.S. total above.

#1 Canada, Ontario - Mill Valley, California resident Robert A. Derzon, a 78 year old man, died in Orangeville while visiting a friend, died 6/17/09 reported 6/17/09 *son confirms that it was H1N1


Suspected Deaths are now being tracked by pflu in a new thread, found here.
 
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

What's the general prevalence of undiagnosed medical conditions in the populations?

In other words, we often hear how diabetes goes undiagnosed for years. Similarly with cancers or even COPD, especially if there is a social-economic gradient in medical care (no, this is not a entry to a medicare-private care debate).

Can we make a reasonable estimate of how many of the 54.5% probably have an undiagnosed underlying condition?

J.
The prevalence of a significant pre-existing medical condition that would increase risk from influenza is age related. Assuming you don't consider children under 1 year of age, because they are frail by definition, then what is true is that the percentage of the population with these medical conditions remains very low until around age 50 where it gradually rises and steepens significantly from there on. Almost all elderly people have them.

Of course young people with type I diabetes, cystic fibrosis, certain rare immune deficiencies are the exceptions and when they were naming these conditions, some of these were listed.

However when they began to list being overweight as a co-morbid condition, that got my attention as this would not usually ever be listed as one in a hospitalized patient with pneumonia say and since hospitals get paid more if the patient had more co-morbidities, you better believe their coders would have added it to the diagnosis sheet. Now obesity, BMI > 30 is a legitimate co-morbidity but not really until the BMI is >35. (see MMWR report from today commented on below)

So, this raised a red flag and made me think that they were gilding the lily in this regard.

But the unanswered question is why? What purpose does it serve?

Furthermore, rather than being provided more information, the PH agencies have become even more opaque. Why? Pretty soon the announcement will read like this: "A death has occurred within the US"

Then the announcement will read like this:

No report. Just silence. Of course for the every cheery, "wash your hands and cover your cough children"

I don't understand why the MSM has allowed them to get away with this lack of clarity. We need this information in order to understand what is happening and why.

I just received a call 1 hour ago from a healthy 45 y/o women who went to work this morning feeling fine but by 10AM had body aches and by noon a temp of 101 F. She is the single parent of a 14 y/o daughter and is very freighted her daughter might catch the disease from her.

I have treated 3 other people since mid June with flu all presumed novel strain. Doctors need to know what to look for. For instance, this is the first case I have seen with a very rapid onset; the other 3 were slow in onset. Is this important or not? This is the first case I have treated that is in an AA, does that place her at increased risk or not? There sure are a lot of AA and Hispanics faces found on Appleblossum's picture album. Is that just sample error or are AAs and Hispanics at higher risk than European Americans?

Besides needing the clinical data for understanding what to look for early in the course of illness as a prognostic guide, the clinical course, hospital record, and especially the autopsy information is needed by not just the clinicians but also all the various scientists studying this disease and trying to understand it better.

It is clearly in the public interest for this information to be made public and they must know that it is. It makes no sense for them to with hold this data and the longer they do and the less transparent they become, the less I trust anything they say.


Grattan Woodson, MD
 
Last edited:
Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Re: FluTrackers Confirmed U.S. Deaths - June 27 +

Latest updates bring me to 55.1% with no announced underkying conditions.
 
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