Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

[JimO]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I've started compiling a list of Argentine deaths by Province using Dr. Niman's data on the Rhiza Labs site and information in posts by Shiloh. I have not yet differentiated thoroughly between confirmed and suspected cases, but I'm working on that next.

As of Shiloh's latest update, I have a total of 134 confirmed and suspected deaths, or 3.3 deaths per million, based solely on population. Assuming an infection rate of 1 in 4, that's 10 million cases. Even if the CFR is similar to seasonal influenza, the death toll would be between 10,000 and 20,000.

That's a lot of relatively young people that don't die during a typical flu season.

Using simple ratios, that translates into 75,000 to 150,000 deaths in the U.S., two to five times the number in a typical flu season.

 

[wotan]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

Using simple ratios, that translates into 75,000 to 150,000 deaths in the U.S., two to five times the number in a typical flu season.

That is at the low end of a category 2 pandemic.

 

[JimO]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

That is at the low end of a category 2 pandemic.

I'm not familiar with the categories, but that seems to me a lot worse than most people have been led to believe.

 

[wotan]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I'm not familiar with the categories, but that seems to me a lot worse than most people have been led to believe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index

CDC Pandemic Severity Index chart[1]
Category CFR example(s)
1 less than 0.1% seasonal flu
2 0.1% to 0.5% Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu
3 0.5% to 1%
4 1% to 2%
5 2% or higher Spanish flu

CDC recently declared this a category 2 pandemic. Can't find the link at this time.

 

[JimO]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

CDC recently declared this a category 2 pandemic. Can't find the link at this time.

This system doesn't take into account potentially higher infection rates for novel strains. If 5x the number of people are infected than during seasonal flu, the CFR could still be a Category 1 Pandemic, but the death toll would be 5x higher.

This is something I've been telling friends and colleagues who quote the talking points. Even if this flu has the same CFR as seasonal flu, it could kill 4-5 times as many people, and few of them would be over 65 years old. That would be a lot more serious in the minds of most people than what they currently think about the pandemic. And, this assumes the virus circulates without changing into a more deadly strain.

 

[WTB]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

Thank you JimO.
I've been saying this around for some time. I'm very glad that someone else concluded the same thing.
When grand-ma dies of the flu in elderly home it is sad, but when a mother to be dies is unexceptable!
WTB

 

[zimagail]

Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I wish you no disrespect. Please accept my sincerest apology. I edited my remarks removing my political comments.

GW

Thank you very much GW. That was a lovely appology. I will remember it next time I owe someone an appology. We are all on this planet together.