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Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

St Michael

Well-known member
<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07060901/H1N1_Argentina_Explosion.html">Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities</a>
Recombinomics Commentary 17:17
July 6, 2009

According to data provided by the Situation Room, there are more than 2,000 cases reported, of which 400 were confirmed as positive.Of the 15 deaths corresponding to node Rosario, Santa Fe to two and the rest of the Venado Tuerto.

The Ministry of Health in the province of Santa Fe reported tonight, through the Situation Room that operates under the Contingency Plan prepared in connection with the pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the total number of reported cases with Epidemiological fact sheets exceeds 2000, with 400 confirmed and 18 deaths, 15 of which belong to Node Rosario, one of the Venado Tuerto and two of Santa Fe

This record corresponds to the information available to date Sunday July 5 to 20 hours.


The above translation describes 18 confirmed fatalities in Santa Fe Province, including 15 deaths in Rosario, as of Sunday night (see updated map). A national report which reported no deaths in Santa Fe last week has an updated number of 9 for Santa Fe, and 60 for the entire country, most of which is from cases in adjacent Buenos Aires Province. The 60 confirmed cases is a marked increase from the 26 reported last week However, the 60 reported cases do not include other recent fatalities cited in media reports which included 11 deaths in Corrientes, 5 deaths in Neuquen, and at least one death in Tierra del Fuego, Jujuy, Cordoba, San Juan, Salta, La Pampa, Rio Negros, Entre Rios, and Santiago del Estero. The national totals do not include any fatalities in the above provinces, raising concerns of a rapid rise in cases that has not been reported beyond the local media reports.

These data indicate the death tally has tripled in the past week and is among the highest in the world (behind the United States and Mexico). However, the cases in Argentina developed very recently, raising concerns that the virus has changed.

To date, there is only one partial pandemic H1N1 MP sequence at Genbank or GISAID. It was collected in April and is identical to a large number of public sequences. However, there are no sequences representing the recent fatalities or June precursors to H1N1 associated with the recent fatalities.

The rapid rise in cases and the failure to provide timely sequence data continues to increase pandemic concerns of an evolving H1N1 that is largely missed by current surveillance approaches.

Recent reports out of Hong Kong described oseltamivir resistance in a traveler from San Francisco who had not taken Tamiflu, raising concerns of resistance in the US. Although no such case has been identified to date, the Hong Kong case was mild and recent (detected June 11) and US efforts have been directed away from mild cases. Moreover, none of the sequences from resistant cases in Denmark, Japan, and Hong Kong have been made public, even though sequences were generated weeks ago.

The failure to promptly disclose these sequences is also cause for concern. In Japan, notification was reportedly delayed while a manuscript was being submitted to the Journal of Infectious Diseases, although release of sequence data would not prevent publication.

The delays in release of important sequence data from pandemic H1N1 are hazardous to the world's health.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

Imported cases from Argentina and neighboring countries continue to be detected in Italy.

Today we have had two children from Argentina (five year old girl, Toscana region; a two month old girl, Lazio region); and two patients from Peru (a seven year old girl and a woman).

All these patients seem to be in not serious health conditions.

For more infos: http://www.salastampa.ministerosalute.it/imgs/C_17_comunicati_2371_testo.rtf

If these people are carrying A/H1N1v with some antigenic and/or genetic mutations, then at least in italian gene sequences databases there should remain some traces...
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

Imported cases from Argentina and neighboring countries continue to be detected in Italy.

Today we have had two children from Argentina (five year old girl, Toscana region; a two month old girl, Lazio region); and two patients from Peru (a seven year old girl and a woman).

All these patients seem to be in not serious health conditions.

For more infos: http://www.salastampa.ministerosalute.it/imgs/C_17_comunicati_2371_testo.rtf

If these people are carrying A/H1N1v with some antigenic and/or genetic mutations, then at least in italian gene sequences databases there should remain some traces...
Remember, MOST H1N1 at this time is still mild. Although there has been an explosion of deaths in South America, especially Argentina, most cases in Argentina are mild.

If travelers have mild symptoms, then they are likely NOT infected with the virulent version of pandemic H1N1,
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

where is the virulent version of H1N1 located?
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

where is the virulent version of H1N1 located?




(x2) i did not even know there was a virulent one.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

where is the virulent version of H1N1 located?

(x2) i did not even know there was a virulent one.

I'm thinking perhaps he means the same H1N1, but that in some people's bodies it becomes more virulent for whatever reason. (?) Looking forward to the answer, because I'm confused as well.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I'm thinking perhaps he means the same H1N1, but that in some people's bodies it becomes more virulent for whatever reason. (?) Looking forward to the answer, because I'm confused as well.
The virulent H1N1 is in Argentinia, where deaths are exploding.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

The virulent H1N1 is in Argentinia, where deaths are exploding.

I just read this thread more carefully from the beginning - and I can't find anything that says there is solid evidence that there is a mutated, more virulent form of H1N1 in Argentina. Is this still an educated guess at this point?
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

The question is, is it really a virulent strain? or is it the normal untreated fatality rate of this virus?

I've often wondered just how many Americans would have perished by now if they could not have taken advantage of american medical care. And also, how many Americans have perished that are being miscounted?

I'm of the opinion that the virus hasn't changed yet, we're just seeing undiluted numbers from the cases in Argentina.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I just read this thread more carefully from the beginning - and I can't find anything that says there is solid evidence that there is a mutated, more virulent form of H1N1 in Argentina. Is this still an educated guess at this point?
Ask the relatives of the dead patients in Argentina (over 100).
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

The question is, is it really a virulent strain? or is it the normal untreated fatality rate of this virus?

I've often wondered just how many Americans would have perished by now if they could not have taken advantage of american medical care. And also, how many Americans have perished that are being miscounted?

I'm of the opinion that the virus hasn't changed yet, we're just seeing undiluted numbers from the cases in Argentina.
Lots of AMERICANS were diagnosed POSTHUMOUSLY.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I just read this thread more carefully from the beginning - and I can't find anything that says there is solid evidence that there is a mutated, more virulent form of H1N1 in Argentina. Is this still an educated guess at this point?
No sequences = no evidence.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I just read this thread more carefully from the beginning - and I can't find anything that says there is solid evidence that there is a mutated, more virulent form of H1N1 in Argentina. Is this still an educated guess at this point?

Read Mamabird's comments in this thread: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113913

She points out that there is clear virulence, but they cannot nail down the cause.

her post #23:

CA/04 was the pediatric patient with no complications

TX/15 was a pediatric patient with fatal respiratory illness

MX/4482 was a 29 year old female with severe respiratory disease

Netherlands/602 was a three year old that recovered with Tamiflu (family had just returned from Mexico)

Four separate viruses in four different patients resulting if varying levels of disease. However, the same virus infecting all four patients could also result in a variety of outcomes. I suspect the same may be true for the poor innocent ferrets.

.<!-- / message -->
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I think Dr. Niman is looking purely at the epidemiological evidence, and is incorporating his view that this virus is a re-run of 1918. In the 1918 second wave in the US we have no evidence that more than one strain was in circulation. That suggests that everyone who was infected, was infected by the same strain - and yet only about 2% had severe illness and died. We can only infer that the virus mutated between the spring of 1918 and the fall of 1918 because we have no virus samples from the spring. And yet, no one seems to have any trouble concluding that the virus mutated.

I believe Niman is saying that everyone in Argentina is being infected by the same virus, and (coincidentally? based upon the numbers we have) about 2% are suffering severe illness - just like 1918. So, the logical inference is the virus has mutated, the absence of sequences notwithstanding.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

Certainly the illness in Argentina is without doubt much worse than in the US. It is somewhat more like what happened in Mexico but one difference is the Argentines knew it was coming and began tracking it right from the start while the Mexicans were blindsided by the pandemic outbreak which was all over the country before they got a handle on it. Many of those who died from the novel strain were long dead and buried before the Mexican authorities got up to speed.

GW
 
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Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

These types of remarks do little to elevate your credibility sir. Where do you get your information?
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

These types of remarks do little to elevate your credibility sir. Where do you get your information?

I wish you no disrespect. Please accept my sincerest apology. I edited my remarks removing my political comments.

GW
 
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Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

.........In the 1918 second wave in the US we have no evidence that more than one strain was in circulation. ............ We can only infer that the virus mutated between the spring of 1918 and the fall of 1918 because we have no virus samples from the spring. ...........

I'm not sure what would define a different strain in 1918, however there are differences in the 4 different samples (from Brevig Mission, New York, South Carolina, and London). Unfortunately not all segments were sequenced and some are clearly not full segments. I find differences in the HA and M2 segments.

.
 
Re: Explosion in Argentina Pandemic H1N1 Fatalities

I think Dr. Niman is looking purely at the epidemiological evidence, and is incorporating his view that this virus is a re-run of 1918. In the 1918 second wave in the US we have no evidence that more than one strain was in circulation. That suggests that everyone who was infected, was infected by the same strain - and yet only about 2% had severe illness and died. We can only infer that the virus mutated between the spring of 1918 and the fall of 1918 because we have no virus samples from the spring. And yet, no one seems to have any trouble concluding that the virus mutated.

I believe Niman is saying that everyone in Argentina is being infected by the same virus, and (coincidentally? based upon the numbers we have) about 2% are suffering severe illness - just like 1918. So, the logical inference is the virus has mutated, the absence of sequences notwithstanding.

The fatality numbers in Argentina have a very steep slope, indicating the virus is different. For 1918, all sequences were from dead patients and many were exposed in the spring, which would offer some protection.

In 1918 the virus changed (from mild to virulent), but there is no spring sequences (and a limited number of fall sequences).
 
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