Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

[Oracle]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Agree with last post on in home disinfection in the case of a public water supply chlorination shortage. It's what developing countries often use to treat drinking and personal care water in home.

The National Groundwater Association (NGWA) has determined that just under one half of the US population is on a private or public groundwater supply; unless bacterial contamination (taste, odor, or well casing problems) has been shown to be an issue, chlorination isn't used.

Chlorine Inactivation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1). Emerg. Infect. Dis. Volume 13, Number 10?October 2007
http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/13/10/1568.htm

I doubt you will be able to correlate disinfection efficacy to influenza morbidity and mortality, simply because of that little fact that I noted on dosing efficiency algorithm published in 1919 in my previous post.

The 1918 H1N1 virus wasn't an avian vector disease (as is H5N1). The above comments on waterfowl contamination of rivers/reservoirs is invalid.

The cause of influenza pandemics isn't water-borne.

Ironic note: chlorination disinfection may be effective for most viral and bacterial communicable diseases, but it does zip for encysted protozooans.

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Yes, Chlorine bleach (unscented, with NO additives - I would check with my healthcare provider and the manufacturer's directions for water purification use) is cheap and readily available, NOW. It may not be during a pandemic with expected absenteeism of 40% and a Just-in-time delivery system designed to keep any warehoused backlog of supplies to a minimum.

Stocking up before the pandemic sounds like a good idea to me. Due to laws of supply and demand I would expect to pay a premium for chlorine bleach suitable for water purification during a pandemic, when and if it is available. In the event of a pandemic, this price "premium" or markup may put it out of the reach of some households leaving them to other methods of water purification which may not be as efficient or as effective. Hopefully it will not become an issue but if it dose I would rather be well prepared ahead of time than to try to second guess what available supplies and restocking will be like during a prolonged emergency.

Chlorine bleach is also a very dangerous chemical that has to be properly stored and secured to keep it out of the reach of children and anyone or anything that should not have access to it.

Do any of our experts have any estimates of how much bleach would be needed to purify enough water for an indivigual for a month? I know the rule of thumb is one gallon of water per person per day. What does that translate into in terms of the amount of bleach needed for water purification for drinking and household needs such as cleaning and sickroom disenfectant needs?

 

[Sunshine123]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61592

ROME (AFP) ? Concentrations of ducks, rice paddies and people are primarily responsible for outbreaks of potentially deadly bird flu across Asia, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation said Wednesday.

"Rather than chickens, (these) are the major factors behind outbreaks of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Thailand and Vietnam, and are probably behind outbreak persistence in other countries of the region such as Cambodia and Laos," said a report by the Rome-based agency.

It said a group of experts had studied a series of outbreaks between early 2004 and late 2005 under senior FAO veterinary officer Jan Slingenbergh, publishing its findings in the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.

"We now know much better where and when to expect H5N1 flare-ups," Slingenbergh said.

"With virus persistence becoming increasingly confined to areas with intensive rice-duck agriculture in eastern and southeastern Asia, evolution of the H5N1 virus may become easier to predict."

By comparing satellite mapping of rice paddies, to show the concentration of ducks feeding on leftover grains in harvested fields, to outbreak timelines, the researchers were able to draw a link and pinpoint periods when the risk of the virus spreading is at its greatest.

The role played by people comes in terms of population density, with people numbers influencing duck movement.

"In Thailand, for example, the proportion of young ducks in flocks was found to peak in September-October," the report said.

"These rapidly growing young ducks can therefore benefit from the peak of the rice harvest in November-December."

It added: "Meat ducks are slaughtered around the Chinese New Year (in January or February, depending on the year), a time when the volume of sales-related duck movement rises considerably."

Ninety percent of the world's 1.044 billion domestic ducks are in Asia, with 775 million of them, or about 75 percent, in China and Vietnam.

In 2005, Thailand introduced the need for animal health certificates for duck farmers, along with subsidies for indoor keeping of the birds, feeds and enclosure building.

"Together, these measures stopped the H5N1 transmission cycle and since late 2005, Thailand has suffered only sporadic outbreaks," the report noted.

Slingenbergh added that indiscriminate mass vaccination -- which the authors found had little long-term effect in Vietnam, for example -- should be replaced by such targeted disease control measures working off local rice-duck calendars and known hotspots.

Avian influenza pandemic may be water-borne.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

. . .
Do any of our experts have any estimates of how much bleach would be needed to purify enough water for an indivigual for a month? I know the rule of thumb is one gallon of water per person per day. What does that translate into in terms of the amount of bleach needed for water purification for drinking and household needs such as cleaning and sickroom disenfectant needs?

From the Washington State Dept. of Health

How to purify your drinking water.
http://www.doh.wa.gov/phepr/handbook/purify.htm


Purifying by adding liquid chlorine bleach

<DIR>If boiling is not possible, treat water by adding liquid household bleach, such as Clorox or Purex. Household bleach is typically between 5 percent and 6 percent chlorine. Avoid using bleaches that contain perfumes, dyes and other additives. Be sure to read the label.
Place the water (filtered, if necessary) in a clean container. Add the amount of bleach according to the table below.
Mix thoroughly and allow to stand for at least 30 minutes before using (60 minutes if the water is cloudy or very cold).

</DIR><TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 height=166 cellSpacing=0 width="100%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%" colSpan=3 height=19>Treating Water with a 5-6 Percent Liquid Chlorine Bleach Solution</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="33%" height=32>Volume of Water to be Treated</TD><TD vAlign=top width="33%" height=32>Treating Clear/Cloudy Water:
Bleach Solution to Add
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="34%" height=32>Treating Cloudy, Very Cold, or Surface Water: Bleach Solution to Add</TD></TR><TR><TD width="33%" height=19>1 quart/1 liter </TD><TD width="33%" height=19>3 drops</TD><TD width="34%" height=19>5 drops</TD></TR><TR><TD width="33%" height=19>1/2 gallon/2 quarts/2 liters </TD><TD width="33%" height=19>5 drops</TD><TD width="34%" height=19>10 drops</TD></TR><TR><TD width="33%" height=19>1 gallon </TD><TD width="33%" height=19>1/8 teaspoon</TD><TD width="34%" height=19>1/4 teaspoon</TD></TR><TR><TD width="33%" height=19>5 gallons </TD><TD width="33%" height=19>1/2 teaspoon</TD><TD width="34%" height=19>1 teaspoon</TD></TR><TR><TD width="33%" height=19>10 gallons</TD><TD width="33%" height=19>1 teaspoon</TD><TD width="34%" height=19>2 teaspoons</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Note that Chlorine bleach has a shelf life, so plan your preps accordingly.
from Anne Marie's Chemistry Blog. . . .

http://chemistry.about.com/b/2007/10/02/chlorine-bleach-shelf-life.htm

Chlorine Bleach Shelf Life
Tuesday October 2, 2007
<TABLE width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD><CENTER>

</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Bleach is one of those household chemicals I own, but rarely use. The last time I bought chlorine bleach was the last time I moved, which was two years ago. The bleach lost most of its effectiveness long ago. Bleach loses its activity over time. It doesn't matter whether or not the bleach container has been opened or not. Temperature is the primary factor affecting how long bleach remains active.

According to Clorox?, the amount of hypochlorite that is added to their bleach depends on the season in which it is manufactured, because temperature affects the decomposition rate of sodium hypochlorite. So, more hypochlorite is added to bleach made in the summer than in cooler months. Clorox aims to maintain a 6% hypochlorite concentration for at least six months after the manufacturing date, assuming the bleach is stored around 70?F. It takes about 4-8 weeks from the time chlorine bleach is made to when it gets to a store so that you can buy it to take home. This leaves you 3-5 months where the bleach is at the effectiveness level stated on its label.

Does this mean bleach is useless after 3-5 months? No, because you probably don't need 6% hypochlorite for laundry and home disinfection. The 6% hypochlorite level is an EPA disinfection standard. If you store your bleach where it can get warmer than 70?F... like 90?F... the bleach is still effective for around three months.

So, when you buy a bottle of bleach, it has a shelf life. The bleach will be highly effective for around 6 months and fine for home use for around 9 months. If you're like me and have had the same bottle for a couple of years, it's probably time to go shopping.

How Bleach Works | Killing Power of Bleach & Vinegar

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Make your own bleach. Stores better too

The info on chlorine is mostly right. Depending on who you check with the answer is all over the place. As an example:

For the standard 5.25% concentration of liquid bleach, to treat a gallon of ?clean? water, the Red Cross says to use 15 drops, the South Dakota Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources says 3, LSU and North Carolina U. say 16, the US Army says 1-2, Ohio State University says 5, the EPA says, 8-10, and 8/40. The City of North Miami says 16, and FEMA is all over the place. Tracing it back to the most popular source, Clorox says to use ?? capful (1 teaspoon)? and doesn?t mention the number of drops, although it would be far more than 16. Further complicating the issue is exactly how many drops are in a teaspoon? This is important to know when treating larger quantities of water.

Basically, the reason for this is because most emergency preparedness sources recommend using a fairly high concentration of chlorine either because they assume a user doesn?t knows what the actual chlorine content of the bleach is, doesn?t know the relationship between concentration and exposure time, doesn?t know the relationship between exposure time and water temperature, can?t count, or figure it is better to be safe than sorry. Or maybe they don?t know how many drops are in a teaspoon and assume nobody else does either. Also, there is about a 16:1 range for the amount of chlorine in municipal water.

Since there were some questions on Calcium Hypochlorite, here is the info:

Calcium Hypochlorite

Should you want a lot of chlorine based product, or want some that will not go bad any where near as fast, get dry calcium hypochlorite [Ca(ClO)2]. You should be able to get it from nearly any swimming pool or spa provider or a specialty chemical house. Swimming pool chemical providers often sell it labeled as HTH (for "high-test hypochlorite") or ?pool shock.? Make sure you are getting pure calcium hypochlorite with nothing else added, i.e. no anti-fungals or clarifiers, etc.

Pure calcium hypochlorite provides a minimum of 65% available chlorine. Calcium Hypochlorite is not hygroscopic (does not attract water), is practically clear in a water solution, and is a stable chlorine carrier. It is rarely available in small quantities so transfer it into smaller 1 lb plastic containers that can be tightly sealed. BE SURE TO CAREFULLY READ AND FOLLOW ALL HANDLING DIRECTIONS AND HEED ALL WARNINGS. It is always a good idea to be using calcium hypochlorite in an EXTREMELY well ventilated area, (i.e.OUTSIDE!). If calcium hypochlorite becomes contaminated by foreign substances it can cause combustion. Do not breathe the dust or get it in your eyes. This stuff is not Play Dough.

For granular calcium hypochlorite, 1oz = 50ml = 10.1 teaspoons

To treat clear raw water with 65-70% calcium hypochlorite there are a couple of ways to do it. If you want to directly treat the water with calcium hypochlorite use the following:

1 Gallon: add one grain, about the size of the period at the end of this sentence.
55 Gallons: add 1/8 teaspoon for a 5ppm solution.
400 Gallons: add 1 level teaspoon for a 5ppm solution.

To make a 5% chlorine solution to be able to use the drop method for disinfecting water, add and dissolve add ? teaspoon of 65-70% calcium hypochlorite to ? cup of water. This will decay at the same rate of purchased 5.25% bleach so don?t make more than you will use in a fairly short time.

Here is a detailed conversion chart for using calcium hypochlorite.
http://chppm-www.apgea.army.mil/documents/ChlorineDosing(fromDraftTBMED577).pdf

Remember, you want a residual, after treating, concentration of about 0.5 ppm so get some pdp test material.

Get a plastic ? teaspoon and 1 pint ? 1 qt plastic bottle and store with your calcium hypochlorite.

1 pound of calcium chloride will treat about 65,000 gallons of water at an initial 5 ppm concentration.

Calcium hypochlorite has the major benefit of extended shelf life. Providing it is kept dry, cool and in an airtight container, it may be stored up to 10 years with minimal degradation. If you want to keep chlorine in larger quantities or for a long time, this is the item to store.

All this and more in my (free and I'm not selling anything) Water Report ~95 pages. Send me an e-mail (pfwag@lycos.com) if you want a copy.

 

[Farmer]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

" All I am doing is correcting disinformation."

I too, wish to correct disinformation: effective chlorination/ disinfection was not in widespread use during 1918. During 1918, American cities were not using chlorination effectively, systematically and consistently as is practiced today. Public water was not distributed to the percentage of the population that receives it today (~85% today in the US). Today the US population is more urban/periurban, we are more dependent upon external inputs. Therefore, today, the public health consequences of a chlorine supply disruption will be much more severe.
http://www.epa.gov/safewater/privatewells/index2.html


"public water supply chlorination standards were published in 1914"
There were no standards for chlorination of public water supplies during 1914 - 1918. You are referring to bacteriologic standards for interstate shipment of water published during 1914; that applied to contaminants "capable of causing contagious disease".

During 1925 for the first time standards were developed for bacteriologic counts in water, again NOT for municipal water supplies.

"Federal regulation of drinking
water quality began in 1914, when
the U.S. Public Health Service set
standards for the bacteriological
quality of drinking water. The
standards applied only to water
systems which provided drinking
water to interstate carriers like ships
and trains, and only applied to
contaminants capable of causing
contagious disease. The Public
Health Service revised and expanded
these standards in 1925,
1946, and 1962."
http://www.epa.gov/OGWDW/consumer/pdf/hist.pdf


" With minor modifications, all 50 states adopted the Public Health Service standards either as regulations or as
guidelines for all of the public water systems in their jurisdiction."
http://www.epa.gov/OGWDW/consumer/pdf/hist.pdf


However, adoption of these interstate water quality standards by municipalities was voluntary and not very consistent among systems even long after WWII.

"With the exception of the coliform standard in interstate commerce, US drinking water standards were nonenforceable guidelines until the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974."
http://www.wrb.state.ri.us/program_eohistory.html


"Not hardly the backwards state of affairs in public water supply treatment in major US cities, as alluded to in your previous post."

I would argue that we were in a "backward state of affairs" for public water systems through the 1960's.

"By the early 1960s, more than 19,000 municipal water systems were in operation throughout the US. Most of these facilities used chlorine for disinfection. "
http://www.wrb.state.ri.us/program_eohistory.html

A 1969 survey of US drinking water supplies found:
"...that only 60 percent of the systems surveyed delivered water that
met all the Public Health Service standards. Over half of the treatment facilities surveyed had major deficiencies involving disinfection, clarification, or pressure in the distribution system (the pipes that carry water from the treatment plant to buildings), or combinations of these deficiencies."
http://www.epa.gov/OGWDW/consumer/pdf/hist.pdf


Consider how US drinking water treatment rates have greatly increased over time:

http://www.epa.gov/roe/roe/images/ex4-10L.gif



As you can see in 1920, only about 20% of the US population received treated water.

Yes, things are very different today due to our heavy dependence upon chlorine products for drinking water disinfection. We in no way can compare the infrastructure needed to maintain public health today and the situation during 1918.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

thanks for the research, but

the conclusion, you won't say our situation is _worse_ than in 1918
wrt. health issues, even with 2008-disruptions ?!?

your graph for typhus is similar for other diseases.
We have better infrastructure, better knowledge,
antibiotics

 

[Oracle]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

In the 19th century, public health issues and medical science made advances in correlating drinking water quality and surface water public supply to infectious disease, mainly in recognition of water clarity as being important for removing microbiological disease agents.

In the late 19th and early 20th century, the development and implementation of screening, primary sedimentation and settling of solids (ponds) and use of rapid (and reverse flow slow) sand filters to 'polish' potable water supply to a defined clarity. Surface drinking water supply treatment innovation was largely responsible for the large and rapid decline over the first three decades of the twentieth century, in the most common water-borne infectious diseases in the US (primarily in large cities that required surface water supply to augment wells, to serve large populations). That is aptly demonstrated in your graph.

However, your graph and mine aren't quite the same.
This graph is from the CDC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Typhoid_stats.gif

Groundwater (GW) supply is also treated, in wells where dissolved mineral solids affect aesthetic qualities: taste, odor, color/clarity. Water softening to remove minerals from well water and some surface water supplies, was also developed in the early 1900s. The theory of ion removal would developed in the first decade of the 20th century would have important implications in removing dissolved heavy metals much later in water treatment history.

Now, let's get to the important bit. Direct evidence from reports, just a few years after a nationwide wave of public and private water supply treatment improvements.

LESS TYPHOID HERE THAN EVER BEFORE; Sanitary Improvements in Several Cities Last Year Reduced the Death Rate. New York Times, May 31, 1914, Sunday Edition, page 10.

You can download the article here, for free. You should read it, carefully. It cites American Medical Association date, collected between 1900 and 1913, demonstrating a remarkable drop in urban typhoid fever as a result of sanitary improvements.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9F04EEDC1F39E633A25752C3A9639C946596D6CF

Another New York Times article documents the improvements that resulted from combined vaccination and sanitary improvements. It's also downloaded as a pdf file.

TYPHOID VANISHING DISEASE; Remarkable Drop in Death Rate Laid to Sanitation and Inoculations. May 15, 1921, Sunday Edition, Editorial Section Page 34.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9B04E4D81E3FEE3ABC4D52DFB366838A639EDE

States implemented water quality oversight regulations as early as 1880. The first national standards was targeted at interstate transport routes to encourage uniformity in water quality for the newly wealthy middle classes who were traveling (and relocating West) in substantial numbers by rail and more frequently, via the developing interstate road system.

You are correct that they were bacteriological standards - that reflects the most common treatment systems that focused on removing suspended materials to which bacteria attach themselves (and form floc as well).

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

why restrict on US-sources (I observed this before) ? There should
be lots of experience from other countries too (WHO ?).

 

[mixin]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

How about Germany?
How will (or did) your water supply fare in pandemic times?

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

I don't know.
There should be actual data from 3rd world countries, with modern
measurements,computers etc. so we needn't use historical data.

I didn't read about a connection of human influenza and
drinking water, so I consider this unlikely.
But it should be examined nevertheless.
I've read, that drinking water should be no problem
in a pandemic in 1st-world-countries

 

[mixin]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Those of us who have well water mostly depend on electric pumps to supply it. When storms cause electrical outages here, I have no water other than whatever I have stored. Mine, however, does not have to be chemically treated like city water does.

In town, the residents still have water even when the electricity is out. They do have to boil their water occasionally when there is a problem with the water lines.

Imo, keeping the electricity up should be the top priority. All of us who burn natural gas need it to run our furnace motors. It gets pretty cold here in northern Indiana in the winter with no heat.

 

[tropical]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

...
In town, the residents still have water even when the electricity is out.
...

Until the (enaugh above) constructed water reservoirs can feed the pipelines with enaugh pressure.
If the electr. is out enaugh time, empty reservoirs need pumps to push water into the system again.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

you should be able to operate the electrical pump manually.

Suppose electricity were available in a pandemic, but very expensive -
where is your limit that you would stop using it ?

Same for fuel.

Well, they could establish an energy tax, as in Europe.
To reduce energy consumption and CO2 and national debt.

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Those of us who have well water mostly depend on electric pumps to supply it. When storms cause electrical outages here, I have no water other than whatever I have stored. Mine, however, does not have to be chemically treated like city water does.

Mixin have you ever considered getting a secondary fuse box or electrical panel installed with a switch that would allow your home to be cut off from the grid? You would need to add an outside plug-in to the system for an electrical generator and of course the generator. This would make you much more independent of the grid in the event of a power outage regardless of the reason. We priced this out about a year ago for our home; it was $1800 (US) for the electrical work from a licensed contractor and $700 (US) for the (gasoline fueled) generator.

Now I'm thinking diesel generator. Diesel fuel is safer to store that gasoline and I think that it is probably much more stable than gas right out of the pumps. Storing large quantities of gasoline can be VERY dangerous and possibly illegal if done incorrectly. During a long-term emergency I'm wondering if these factors would make diesel a better option?

You may want to check with your county health department. Sometimes after very heavy rains or flooding, some of them may recommend that wells be properly chlorinated and flushed as contaminants from ground level may seep into the well water.

 

[Oracle]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

I don't know.
There should be actual data from 3rd world countries, with modern
measurements,computers etc. so we needn't use historical data.
I didn't read about a connection of human influenza and
drinking water, so I consider this unlikely.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau's Mortality Statistics, 1900 and 1936.

Percentage of Deaths, by Cause, in Major Cities

Cause of Death 1900 1936

Major Infectious Diseases 39.3 17.9
Tuberculosis 11.1 5.3
Pneumonia 9.6 9.3
Diarrhea and Enteritis 7.0 n/a
Typhoid Fever 2.4 0.1
Meningitis 2.4 0.3
Malaria 1.2 0.1
Smallpox 0.7 0.0
Influenza 0.7 1.3


Developing nations have in-situ issues with inadequate sanitation and for the most part, lack safe-water supply. Collateral damage from a pandemic would add to the public health burden through case medical complications and disruption of essential services, but the issue of 'safe drinking water supply' is FAR FAR different in developing nations, when compared to industrial nations with a long history of stepwise water quality technical improvements (hundreds of years).

Germany (aka, Western Europe) faces the same situation as the US (issues of municipal services maintenance and safe water supply in the aftermath of a pandemic). Although there are differences in disinfection methods employed (including disinfection safeguard of point-of-use connections within the distribution system, the most significant difference between European and US/Canadian public water supply design/regulations), basic treatment processes are very similar, or the same.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

influenza/pneumonia deaths didn't decrease as those from other infectious diseases,
which is partly/mainly due to drinking water improvements ?
OK. The 1918 pandemic was special and maybe different. (IMO unlikely, but possible, [10%])

 

[Oracle]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Sometimes after very heavy rains or flooding, some of them may recommend that wells be properly chlorinated and flushed as contaminants from ground level may seep into the well water.

Not necessary to shock treat with oxidizers unless the well hasn't been properly cased and sealed at the surface. Depends on the date of well construction and state/county groundwater regulatory requirements in effect at that time, and the quality of the construction work/materials.

Agreed that well contamination can occur under heavy flooding.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

influenza/pneumonia deaths didn't decrease as those from other infectious diseases,
which is partly/mainly due to drinking water improvements ?
OK. The 1918 pandemic was special and maybe different. (IMO unlikely, but possible, [10%])

Gsgs - Can I quote you on the 10%?