Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

[Oracle]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

The 1918 pandemic was unique. 100% guarantee.

Can such a pandemic arise again?

Probability if the correct conditions were present: >90%

 

[Farmer]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Mixin have you ever considered getting a secondary fuse box or electrical panel installed with a switch that would allow your home to be cut off from the grid? You would need to add an outside plug-in to the system for an electrical generator and of course the generator. This would make you much more independent of the grid in the event of a power outage regardless of the reason. We priced this out about a year ago for our home; it was $1800 (US) for the electrical work from a licensed contractor and $700 (US) for the (gasoline fueled) generator.

Now I'm thinking diesel generator. Diesel fuel is safer to store that gasoline and I think that it is probably much more stable than gas right out of the pumps. Storing large quantities of gasoline can be VERY dangerous and possibly illegal if done incorrectly. During a long-term emergency I'm wondering if these factors would make diesel a better option?

You may want to check with your county health department. Sometimes after very heavy rains or flooding, some of them may recommend that wells be properly chlorinated and flushed as contaminants from ground level may seep into the well water.

Amish Country,

Have you considered a propane-fueled generator?

Advantages- you can store large amounts of fuel safely, it does not degrade in storage so you do not have to rotate stocks, the generator itself will have a longer life than one that uses liquid fuel, it operates better in cold weather and it requires less maintenance.

Disadvantages- cost of the generator and the fuel cost per BTU may be higher (but have you priced diesel lately?)

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

The 1918 pandemic was unique. 100% guarantee.

Can such a pandemic arise again?

Probability if the correct conditions were present: >90%

With correct conditions?

Virology didn't exist in the Middle Age, or earlier.... Bacteriology dated back mid of XIX century.

Birds exist even before hominides, and viruses they host probably accompaign them during hundreds of thousands of years.

Humankind is not the centre of Universe...

We don't know how many viruses similar to 1918 one circulated during ancient times, with a sparse human population in a even wild world.

If the story of ''spanish flu'' is so striking, also WWI story is a cornerstone to humankind with the massive die-off of youngsters, in trenches, amidst dysenthery outbreaks, malaria, cholera, typhus, measles, mumps, diphteria, smallpox, plague and malnoutrition, with toxic gases used as arms, no antibiotic for severe injuries, no sterilization.

All things are possible under this sky, and it may be impossible to calculate or predict another event like ''spanish flu''.

One may also argue that another pandemic could be more severe ... under this sky...

It is a game with no winners.

If the world feels the impending start of a disaster, why do resources remain unallocated to manufacture a priming - universal - vaccine?

People comes and goes but the great historical events remain - AR Lurjia.

 

[mixin]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Amish Country,
I've thought about a generator but that's as far as I've gotten. Luckily, the longest I've gone without power is a couple of days and that has only happened once. I'm on 4 acres of Plainfield fine sand and 1 mile away from a large creek so I don't worry about flooding or water contamination.

Oracle,

Probability if the correct conditions were present: >90%

What are the chances of correct conditions being present? I wonder what changed to set off the 1918 pandemic?

Ironorehopper,
We should put this in bold; it's a very important question:

If the world feels the impending start of a disaster, why do resources remain unallocated to manufacture a priming - universal - vaccine?

 

[Oracle]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

>All things are possible under this sky, and it may be impossible to calculate or predict another event like ''spanish flu''.

Negatory.

It is quite possible to predict another 1918-like pandemic event.
It is also very possible to identify the molecular markers and other conditions necessary for efficient transmission of avian virus that is lethal to humans.

>One may also argue that another pandemic could be more severe ... under this sky...

We need only look at the lethality among human cases of the last five years to H5N1 to recognize this fact.

Interesting choice of phrasing, IOH.

>It is a game with no winners.

Agreed. But, with a little foresight, the losers need not be so severely punished.

Beyond the limitations of vaccines and antivirals, we have another weapon in our arsenal, to fight against the extreme costs of an lethal influenza pandemic.

Informed action. I submit that the consequences are largely avoidable for most of the population.

I warn, once again, that pre-fab vaccines and antiviral agents will only work under specific conditions of virus and host interaction. That is a moving target.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

I agree with you Oracle. If H5N1 adapt itself to human species a pandemic will occur with unpredictable consequences.

But I think that a viral species like-H1N1/18 may be emerged in ''unique'' conditions. One may see this event as ''quantic'' change, sudden, without intermediate - continuum - modifications.

It is a historical event, and all the things that drive its ''existence'' are gone with the humans of that time.

We are now at a new joint. New conditions, other humans, other animals...

The antigenic and genetic background of H1N1/18 is perhaps non-reproducible - at least in nature. In lab settings, hybrids were created to ''mimic'' this virus (even with a really impressive similarity with the natural wild type strain, but not exactly the same).

We are discussing about a ''spanish-flu''-like virus.

H5N1 doesn't seem to date behave like 1918-one.

It may be worst, in effect.

Many theories were elaborated to elucidate the pandemics recurrences: antigenic ''recycle'', ''species'' crossing, and several novelists like Fred Hoyle tried to explain this event (a comet from outer space...).

I mean: a series of events may be not reproducible at this time.

Another time, another event.

It is - according my impression - a question of the unique feature of humam history, and in this perspective not a single laboratory works could explain exactly an human behavior or historical event.

The trigger remains unknown.

We know all the things but the trigger is always in the mist.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

when you say "unpredictable" , you really mean : "bad" ?

 

[tropical]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

If we said that spanish pandemic flu was unique in it's more high virulence, than it would mean that all the (non-artificial) pandemics (and seasonal) flu strains, previous, and future, can't have an CFR more than 2%!

Have we a scientifical research data confirmation that flu is an illness which cannot have more deadly cases than max. 2% of the infected ones?
I doubt it.
___

"Informed action. I submit that the consequences are largely avoidable for most of the population."

Maybe if "consequences" not include the pandemic flu illness, but I doubt that we can avoid to be infected, or killed, by a pandemic flu, because we were informed of it's comming.

We can maybe try to avoid some other collateral consequences of such an pandemic event, but the vast majority of health spec.'s thinks that an flu pandemic is unstoppable if it spreaded out of the initial hot zone to multispots in other regions/continents.

 

[Dark Horse]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

.... If H5N1 adapt itself to human species a pandemic will occur with unpredictable consequences.

But I think that a viral species like-H1N1/18 may be emerged in ''unique'' conditions. One may see this event as ''quantic'' change, sudden, without intermediate - continuum - modifications.

It is a historical event, and all the things that drive its ''existence'' are gone with the humans of that time.

We are now at a new joint. New conditions, other humans, other animals...

The antigenic and genetic background of H1N1/18 is perhaps non-reproducible - at least in nature. In lab settings, hybrids were created to ''mimic'' this virus (even with a really impressive similarity with the natural wild type strain, but not exactly the same).

We are discussing about a ''spanish-flu''-like virus.

H5N1 doesn't seem to date behave like 1918-one.

It may be worst, in effect.....

There are some intriguing things that can be snatched from the past. The 1918 pandemic fatality rate could have been worse than it was if there was -- as some theorize -- immunity in the older folks from the many, many waves of global influenza that occurred between 1889 and 1895.

(sources for the above: Dr. H. Franklin Parsons report to the Local Government Board and K. David Patterson's Pandemic Influenza 1700-1900: A Study in Historical Epidemiology. 1986. Rowman & Littlefield publishers.)

Unlike the period from 1889-1919, we have not experienced a pandemic for quite some time and we may be extremely vulnerable as a consequence.

It is easy to explain high CFRs in places like Indonesia and Eqypt that have challenges to their public health care system and sometimes can't treat patients quickly enough to save their lives, but one may recall the recent story of the man in China who took care of and was infected by his dying son. He was treated immediately, was a man with a professional, possibly military background, in a major city and it was only because of an experimental treatment that he is still alive today. The true danger of H5N1 is to be learned from people treated quickly in places with a reasonable health care infrastructure. The comparatively few examples of that type of case are not comforting.

I think that there is a real danger that we face a pandemic of great severity, unmitigated by prior immunity. Although at some time in the future, I'm sure that we will -- with continuous research and experimentation -- figure out exactly what chemistry produces a pandemic virus, the knowledge will not necessarily stop it from occurring and when it does, all hell will break loose. We are fascinated by the gradual evolution of pandemic influenza, but disaster could come directly and quickly right out of a bird's hind end just like in 1918.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

we are currently being infected by H1N1 and H3N2, 2 strains.
This could be unusual, it is the exception since 1918.

Maybe this is the cause, that there was no pandemic since 1977 ?!?

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

people (i.e. actuaries) often rely on the history.
No pandemic with similar severety as 1918 for centuries or millenia.

But

influenza in humans is quite new, it has changed significantly
since humans started intercontinental travel.
And flu can change significantly in a few centuries,
you can't so well compare with previous centuries.

English sweating, 1580 whooping - the symptoms are different from
today's influenza, but the virus could have changed
in the 400 years.

And we can't compare the spread with the times when
fastest travel was by horses.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Ah, sure. Horses travelled very slow....

But people were crowded in slums (a least during Industrial Revolution), with animals into homes, excrements, and their diseases, often unrecognized by medical science.

Animals were microbes' hosts in the past as today, and perhaps more species are now extinct.

We know a lot nowadays, but we also don't know much more... And we aren't the centre of the universe.

Microbes live with humankind since the first hominides apperead on Earth surface.

I rarely see someone think the course of the history in a comprehensive manner, with its bottlenecks, its cornerstone, its stasis and rapid changes.

We may die for H5N1 tomorrow, or not. We don't know for certainty.

And further, we don't own the future, and the menace may be smoldering elsewhere in the universe, undetected.

But if we really are so scared by H5N1 why do leaders not engage a Manhattan Project to manufacture a universally accessible vaccine?

'Cos I see a great discrepancy between the predication and the facts, the crying of some, and the inaction of the most.

And finally. If a pandemic with more than 33% of cfr really starts to spread into overcrowded megalopolis are you sure than handwashing may be enough to save people?

Are you really sure that store food could save a family in Kolkhata, Mumbai, Tokyo, Moscow, Paris, Rome, New York, Sao Paulo, Manila, Jakarta?

We talk about a disaster of unknown proportion, and no safe place for anyone living in metropolis with thousands inhabitants for square mile.

In the past humans and animals shared same space, same resource, same life and microbes as well.

We share part of ancient microbial genomes.

There is a strange restriction of the reality sight....

 

[JJackson]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

I agree with you Oracle. If H5N1 adapt itself to human species a pandemic will occur with unpredictable consequences.

But I think that a viral species like-H1N1/18 may be emerged in ''unique'' conditions. One may see this event as ''quantic'' change, sudden, without intermediate - continuum - modifications.

It is a historical event, and all the things that drive its ''existence'' are gone with the humans of that time.

We are now at a new joint. New conditions, other humans, other animals...

The antigenic and genetic background of H1N1/18 is perhaps non-reproducible - at least in nature. In lab settings, hybrids were created to ''mimic'' this virus (even with a really impressive similarity with the natural wild type strain, but not exactly the same).

We are discussing about a ''spanish-flu''-like virus.

H5N1 doesn't seem to date behave like 1918-one.

It may be worst, in effect.

Many theories were elaborated to elucidate the pandemics recurrences: antigenic ''recycle'', ''species'' crossing, and several novelists like Fred Hoyle tried to explain this event (a comet from outer space...).

I mean: a series of events may be not reproducible at this time.

Another time, another event.

It is - according my impression - a question of the unique feature of humam history, and in this perspective not a single laboratory works could explain exactly an human behavior or historical event.

The trigger remains unknown.

We know all the things but the trigger is always in the mist.

I am not sure quite what you are arguing here but if it is that the conditions in 1918 were particularly conducive to the emergence of a severe pandemic I can not agree.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
While it is futile to argue that WW1 had not weakened many who in peace time may have been well nourished and fit – physically and immunologically – I do not see how that could have any bearing on the genetics (and consequent virulence) of an avian disease. As I understand it H1N1, as it went pandemic, was predominantly avian (i.e. not a reassortment and with little evidence of adaption to an intermediate mammalian host) therefore the level of virulence had nothing to do with the health of the human population. Once it spread it killed citizens of the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:country-region><st1lace>US</st1lace></st1:country-region> - who had not suffered the privations of war – as readily as the Europeans that had. <o></o>
<o></o>
Currently, at any given moment in time, there are probably only one or two people on the planet with diagnosed H5N1 so it is hardly surprising that misdiagnosis is probably the norm. Prior to H1N1 going pandemic if there was a period of sporadic human infection there is no way the doctors at the time could have identified it (although Professor Oxford – on fairly flimsy evidence and with the benefit of hindsight – argues that a cluster of unexplained deaths with H1N1 type symptoms in a front line military hospital may have been a cluster that did not quite sustain Ro >1).
<o></o>
When a pathogen jumps species it will normally be because its new host is biologically similar to its old host in several key aspects of the pathogens life cycle. In the case of influenza the new species – man - has a similar animal cell structure with proteins and sugar side chains for binding, proteases for cleavage and the necessary cellular organelles to unpack, transcribe, translate and repackage the next generation of virons. As birds have their primary binding sites in their intestines and humans in the trachea the disease is very different clinically, other variations in the avian adapted viral proteins account for the AI H7N7 manifesting as conjunctivitis and AI H5N1 causing ARDS. The HP nature of AI H5N1 allows for the attack of a wider range of cell types and accounts for the reported multi organ failure. LP H1N1(1918) and HPAI H5N1 both seem to be capable of inducing immune system overreaction (cytokine storm) although it is unclear what facets of each are responsible.
<o></o>
All of the above is a reiteration of arguments I have made before against thinking that zoonotic emergent diseases ‘care’ anything about the new species until that species moves form being a dead-end host to one with sustained transmission in its own right. At this point the pathogen will undergo rapid adaption to its new host and AI H5N1 and H5N1 (or AI H1N1 & H1N1 or any other newly emerged zoonotic) will genetically diverge (recombination and reassortment aside). Again, to emphasize, starting virulence – and to a lesser extent clinical symptoms – are very much a lottery, it is only after the pathogen starts to adapt to its new host that it can begin to achieve traditional evolutionary balance i.e. using its host’s cellular machinery to make as many copies as it can whilst not being so virulent it prevents its victim spreading the infection.
<o></o>
What of the conditions now, for a newly emergent pandemic H5N1, as opposed to those found in 1918 by H1N1?
<o></o>
Obviously the world has changed a great deal.
On the cons side (from the point of view of the virus) they – humans - have developed some rudimentary antiviral and vaccine technologies and more importantly have learnt a fair deal about the virus’s lifecycle.
On the pro side there are a lot more potential hosts, they have been kind enough redistribute themselves mainly into mega-population centers and in so doing have vastly increased the number and frequency of the type of contacts needed to spread infection. They also refuse to see the potential dangers so are never going to make the necessary structural readjustments needed to maximize the benefits from their technological advances.
<o></o>
There are lots of other changes which are of no ‘interest’ to the virus but could be disastrous for the new host species. The increase and redistribution of the population have been accompanied by major changes in the production and distribution of essentials. The scale of interdependence is quite unlike any other period in history and is extremely efficient. Production of food and fuel is now largely divorced from consumption in the more ‘developed’ parts of the planet and even where humans live in agricultural areas all the land may be given over to a single crop which may not be suitable for human consumption without industrial processing. Densely populated urban areas are entirely dependent on a complex processing and distribution system for food, water and waste removal and many of the individuals no longer possess the tools or skills to produce what they need even if basic food stuffs were available.
<o></o>
The problem with an influenza pandemic is until it comes we have no idea how severe it may be. The social disruption will be a function of virulence but the relationship will not be linear. As the <st1:stockticker>CFR</st1:stockticker> rises an unprepared and uneducated public will change their routines. While a subsistence farmer on a dollar a day will have no choice but to till his fields the more affluent with money in the bank may decide not to go to work. How would modern society function in a 1918 pandemic? With so much of capitalist society dependent on discretionary consumer spending even a relatively small downturn in business would render many small firms no longer viable. The distribution of these bankruptcies, and layoffs, would initially be heavily skewed towards overtly discretionary purchases (beware Jacuzzi and Condo dealers) but the layoffs and belt tightening will ripple through the whole financial system in short order and some level of recession and depression seem inevitable in all but the most mild pandemic. While we think of ‘just in time’ (JIT) systems mainly in terms of tangible goods the reality for many in the West is it is equally applicable to their mortgage payments. Monthly income and non discretionary spending are fairly closely related and the current ripple effects of a relatively small number of failures in the sub prime housing market in one country should act as a clear warning of the potential effects of even a mild downturn, if it is global.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Jjackson, I feel that I agree with most what you write.
But let me see it more from the virus' POV.

I can also see "admiration",
how that human race had succeeded to replicate and increase
in number, economically, technologically and in health,life-expectancy.

That makes it worthwile to hijack its structures.
But genetically - will it really be a dead end or has the
virus anchored in its genes successfull co-circulation
from birds to men (swine/horses/dogs) and back ?

Should we believe that it's just a coincidence, that avian flu
can also occasionally infect mammals or is it the result
of mutation and selection over centuries ?

Maybe human flu is not always a dead end to be wiped out
by the successor virus in the next pandemic.

Maybe flu can well suffer lots of dead ends with only occasional
circulation back to its main host and providing genetically its experiences.

Isn't according to the recent papers human flu supposed to be
a dead end outside SE-Asia too ?
I assume while this is often correct, sometimes some strains
succeed to go back to Asia and provide its segments for mixing.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

I think that the dissection of humans, their social / economic / labor conditions, nutrition, concurrent infectious diseases outbreaks / war is a dangerous game if the aim is to start to unveil the ''spanish flu'' context and subsequent story.

Europe was without doubts the epicenter of the pandemic.

Some elements could help: Austrian doctors described earlier in 1916/17 some acute febrile illness with neurological involvement but the communications were disrupted by war. The neuroinvasion of influenza viruses was previoulsy described during 1888/89 pandemic and perhaps earlier.

The Great Plague of Middle Age cannot be ''detached'' from its context, a post-Roman fragmented populations, without basic knowledge of hygiene and a mounting rats' population.

I mean that historical events are unique and I don't pretend to speak about genomic of a (unknown) viral species circulated in the early '900.

I speak about the EVENT for itself, and this event cannot be reproduced in any way.

The next pandemic will be discussed by survivors, and I hope not dissected from its context.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

> Europe was without doubts the epicenter of the pandemic.

I have doubts.
And I haven't seen that statement elsewhere

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

Amish Country,

Have you considered a propane-fueled generator?

Advantages- you can store large amounts of fuel safely, it does not degrade in storage so you do not have to rotate stocks, the generator itself will have a longer life than one that uses liquid fuel, it operates better in cold weather and it requires less maintenance.

Disadvantages- cost of the generator and the fuel cost per BTU may be higher (but have you priced diesel lately?)

Yes we seriously did consider a propane- fueled generator. We have propane for cooking so it would have been a relatively easy tie in to a stand by generator. However when figuring out how quickly one of those could suck up propane over a 3 or 4 day period and considered the size of our tank we decided at the time to go with the gasoline not foreseeing a more that 100% rise in its cost.

Hind sight tends to be 20-20.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

...........We know a lot nowadays, but we also don't know much more... And we aren't the centre of the universe.

Microbes live with humankind since the first hominides apperead on Earth surface. ....

Yes, we've been greatly outnumbered by viruses possibly since prior to our existance.

I view pathogens as part of the brillance of nature - a system to keep things in balance and guarantee survival of the system. Influenza is certainly a outstanding example of that brillant system.

.

 

[tropical]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

AC:
"I view pathogens as part of the brillance of nature - a system to keep things in balance and guarantee survival of the system."

I view pathogens/illnesses (and parasites) as a curse of nature, an permanent plague of sane biology creatures.

An analogue plague was then inserted not only in nature but in the first naive artificial program systems, and now plagued heavily the whole net, busines, and other systems - how would be if today the systems remained plague free?

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Economic chaos will kill more than pandemic, expert warns

I am not sure quite what you are arguing here but if it is that the conditions in 1918 were particularly conducive to the emergence of a severe pandemic I can not agree.

While it is futile to argue that WW1 had not weakened many who in peace time may have been well nourished and fit ? physically and immunologically ? I do not see how that could have any bearing on the genetics (and consequent virulence) of an avian disease. As I understand it H1N1, as it went pandemic, was predominantly avian (i.e. not a reassortment and with little evidence of adaption to an intermediate mammalian host) therefore the level of virulence had nothing to do with the health of the human population. Once it spread it killed citizens of the US - who had not suffered the privations of war ? as readily as the Europeans that had.

Currently, at any given moment in time, there are probably only one or two people on the planet with diagnosed H5N1 so it is hardly surprising that misdiagnosis is probably the norm. Prior to H1N1 going pandemic if there was a period of sporadic human infection there is no way the doctors at the time could have identified it (although Professor Oxford ? on fairly flimsy evidence and with the benefit of hindsight ? argues that a cluster of unexplained deaths with H1N1 type symptoms in a front line military hospital may have been a cluster that did not quite sustain Ro >1).

When a pathogen jumps species it will normally be because its new host is biologically similar to its old host in several key aspects of the pathogens life cycle. In the case of influenza the new species ? man - has a similar animal cell structure with proteins and sugar side chains for binding, proteases for cleavage and the necessary cellular organelles to unpack, transcribe, translate and repackage the next generation of virons. As birds have their primary binding sites in their intestines and humans in the trachea the disease is very different clinically, other variations in the avian adapted viral proteins account for the AI H7N7 manifesting as conjunctivitis and AI H5N1 causing ARDS. The HP nature of AI H5N1 allows for the attack of a wider range of cell types and accounts for the reported multi organ failure. LP H1N1(1918) and HPAI H5N1 both seem to be capable of inducing immune system overreaction (cytokine storm) although it is unclear what facets of each are responsible.

All of the above is a reiteration of arguments I have made before against thinking that zoonotic emergent diseases ?care? anything about the new species until that species moves form being a dead-end host to one with sustained transmission in its own right. At this point the pathogen will undergo rapid adaption to its new host and AI H5N1 and H5N1 (or AI H1N1 & H1N1 or any other newly emerged zoonotic) will genetically diverge (recombination and reassortment aside). Again, to emphasize, starting virulence ? and to a lesser extent clinical symptoms ? are very much a lottery, it is only after the pathogen starts to adapt to its new host that it can begin to achieve traditional evolutionary balance i.e. using its host?s host cellular machinery to make as many copies as it can whilst not being so virulent it prevents its victim spreading the infection.

What of the conditions now, for a newly emergent pandemic H5N1, as opposed to those found in 1918 by H1N1?

Obviously the world has changed a great deal.
On the cons side (from the point of view of the virus) they ? humans - have developed some rudimentary antiviral and vaccine technologies and more importantly have learnt a fair deal about the virus?s lifecycle.
On the pro side there are a lot more potential hosts, they have been kind enough redistribute themselves mainly into mega-population centers and in so doing have vastly increased the number and frequency of the type of contacts needed to spread infection. They also refuse to see the potential dangers so are never going to make the necessary structural readjustments needed to maximize the benefits from their technological advances.

There are lots of other changes which are of no ?interest? to the virus but could be disastrous for the new host species. The increase and redistribution of the population have been accompanied by major changes in the production and distribution of essentials. The scale of interdependence is quite unlike any other period in history and is extremely efficient. Production of food and fuel is now largely divorced from consumption in the more ?developed? parts of the planet and even where humans live in agricultural areas all the land may be given over to a single crop which may not be suitable for human consumption without industrial processing. Densely populated urban areas are entirely dependent on a complex processing and distribution system for food, water and waste removal and many of the individuals no longer possess the tools or skills to produce what they need even if basic food stuffs were available.

The problem with an influenza pandemic is until it comes we have no idea how severe it may be. The social disruption will be a function of virulence but the relationship will not be linear. As the CFR rises an unprepared and uneducated public will change their routines. While a subsistence farmer on a dollar a day will have no choice but to till his fields the more affluent with money in the bank may decide not to go to work. How would modern society function in a 1918 pandemic? With so much of capitalist society dependent on discretionary consumer spending even a relatively small downturn in business would render many small firms no longer viable. The distribution of these bankruptcies, and layoffs, would initially be heavily skewed towards overtly discretionary purchases (beware Jacuzzi and Condo dealers) but the layoffs and belt tightening will ripple through the whole financial system in short order and some level of recession and depression seem inevitable in all but the most mild pandemic. While we think of ?just in time? (JIT) systems mainly in terms of tangible goods the reality for many in the West is it is equally applicable to their mortgage payments. Monthly income and non discretionary spending are fairly closely related and the current ripple effects of a relatively small number of failures in the sub prime housing market in one country should act as a clear warning of the potential effects of even a mild downturn, if it is global.

JJackson, this is a most thoughtful and cogent post. Thanks for explaining the issues so well.

Too many people anthropomorphize the H5N1 virus; and not enough people recognize the economic (and social) effects of a novel virus that could debilitate 30% of the population at any one time. Even if the CFR drops to 1-2%, it is the attack rate and the R0 number that will determine how well a "just-in-time" world-wide economy survives the next pandemic.