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Earl hammers Nova Scotia

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory

000
wtnt32 knhc 260241
tcpat2
bulletin
tropical storm earl advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al072010
1100 pm ast wed aug 25 2010

...earl moving westward over the tropical atlantic...


Summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...14.7n 33.6w
about 615 mi...990 km w of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm earl was
located near latitude 14.7 north...longitude 33.6 west. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is
expected to continue during the next two days keeping the cyclone
over the waters of the tropical atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and earl
is forecast to become a hurricane by late friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$
forecaster brown

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/260241.shtml
 
Re: Tropical Storm Earl moving westward over the tropical atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Earl moving westward over the tropical atlantic

at201007.gif

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<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Image Updated: 3:09 AM GMT on August 26, 2010</TD><SCRIPT language=javascript> var prefix="at201007_sat"; var zoom=3; var suffix = ".jpg"; var zoomtext; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; function zoom_sat(dir) { if (dir=="in") zoom--; else zoom++; if (zoom < 0) zoom = 3; if (zoom > 3) zoom = 0; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } function anim_sat() { if (suffix==".jpg") { suffix="_anim.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/pause_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Stop"; } else { suffix=".jpg"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/play_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Animate"; } document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } </SCRIPT><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Animate</TD><TD></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 75px" class=nobr>Zoom Out</TD><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Zoom In</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for French St-Martin and St-Barthelemy

Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for French St-Martin and St-Barthelemy

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory

000
wtnt32 knhc 272335
tcpat2
bulletin
tropical storm earl intermediate advisory number 10a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al072010
800 pm ast fri aug 27 2010

...earl moving quickly westward...


Summary of 800 pm ast...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.9n 46.9w
about 1080 mi...1735 km e of the northern leeward islands
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/hr
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* french saint martin and saint barthelemy

this tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within 72 hours.

Residents in the remainder of the northern leeward islands should
monitor the progress of earl.

For storm information specific to your area outside the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 pm ast...0000 utc...the center of tropical storm earl was
located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 46.9 west. Earl is
moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr. This general motion
is expected to continue through sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Earl is forecast to become a hurricane by sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
to the north of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------



Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster blake/beven

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/272335.shtml?
 
Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY....EARL COULD
STILL BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/281435.shtml
 
Re: Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Re: Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Earl a threat to the Lesser Antilles; Danielle misses Bermuda; 97L organizing


Updated: 3:40 PM GMT on August 28, 2010


Excerpt:


Track forecast for Earl

Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest, likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 30% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably more like 20%, due to the steering influence of a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted by the long-range GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm missing landfall. However, seven-day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast Thursday or Friday. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday, or Massachusetts on Friday. The GFS model predicts that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, and it is possible that Earl could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, as predicted by the GFS model, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl has higher than usual uncertainty because of the possibility of a storm-storm interaction with Fiona.

.../
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
 
Re: Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Re: Earl is moving westward - A tropical storm watch is in effect for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Click the map below to change the zoom level.
<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
at201007_model.gif

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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007_model.html#a_topad
 
Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Tropical storm warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Tropical storm warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282349
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE PUERTO RICO ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...34 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory
 
Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Tropical storm warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Tropical storm warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75mph -120Km/Hr
[SIZE=-2]Sun, 29 Aug 2010 7:33:03[/SIZE] (NOAA)

...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...


LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


As of 3:30 AM,

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE

WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Tropical storm warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Tropical storm warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291159
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/291159.shtml
 
Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Hurricane warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Hurricane warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Image Updated: 2:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2010</TD><SCRIPT language=javascript> var prefix="at201007_sat"; var zoom=3; var suffix = ".jpg"; var zoomtext; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; function zoom_sat(dir) { if (dir=="in") zoom--; else zoom++; if (zoom < 0) zoom = 3; if (zoom > 3) zoom = 0; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } function anim_sat() { if (suffix==".jpg") { suffix="_anim.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/pause_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Stop"; } else { suffix=".jpg"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/play_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Animate"; } document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } </SCRIPT><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Animate</TD><TD></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 75px" class=nobr>Zoom Out</TD><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Zoom In</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
at201007_sat.jpg

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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007_sat.html#a_topad
 
Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Hurricane warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Re: Earl heading toward the Leeward Islands in a hurry - Hurricane warning for St.Martin, St.Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St.Maarten, Saba, St.Eustatius

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/291455.shtml
 
Earl strengthens - Heading toward the Northernmost Leeward Islands - Conditions deteriorating soon

Earl strengthens - Heading toward the Northernmost Leeward Islands - Conditions deteriorating soon

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 292046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/292046.shtml
 
Re: Earl strengthens - Heading toward the Northernmost Leeward Islands - Conditions deteriorating soon

Re: Earl strengthens - Heading toward the Northernmost Leeward Islands - Conditions deteriorating soon

Antigua and Barbuda Airport Authority

Posted on 29 August 2010

The VC Bird International Airport will be officially closed at 3:45 Pm today, Sunday 29 August. The last scheduled flight departure will be the American Airlines 1880 to Miami.

The Airport Management and Staff are taking all necessary action to secure equipment and facilities to mitigate the potential impact of hurricane Earl.

.../

Read more:
http://www.antiguaobserver.com/?tag=hurricane-earl
 
Earl strengthens to Category 2 as it approaches the Northernmost Leeward Islands

Earl strengthens to Category 2 as it approaches the Northernmost Leeward Islands

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/300233.shtml
 
Earl continues to strengthen as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Earl continues to strengthen as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/301147.shtml
 
Re: Earl continues to strengthen as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Re: Earl continues to strengthen as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -


This site has reports from locals living on the Islands:

http://stormcarib.com/
 
Re: Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Re: Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. ST. MAARTEN REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM AST AND 300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/301445.shtml
 
Re: Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Re: Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico


Updated: 2:53 PM GMT on August 30, 2010


Excerpt:


Track forecast for Earl

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
.../

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
 
Re: Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

Re: Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves across the Northern Leeward Islands

UPDATE 2-Earl becomes major hurricane, could swipe U.S. east

Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:54pm BST

Excerpt:

...Residents on the island of St. Martin/St. Maarten, its two halves respectively administered by France and the Netherlands, said Earl brought rain, wind and pounding seas on the coast, causing power outages and knocking down trees. There were also some reports of homes losing their roofs.

"The rain has picked up, the seas are extremely rough," Roddy Heyliger of the St. Maarten Government Information Service told Reuters.

In Antigua, some flooding in low-lying areas was reported. "It's nasty but not huge ... no worries with wind or waves unless you were really unprepared," Eli Fuller, who runs an eco-tourism company, said from Jolly Harbour in Antigua.

There were no immediate reports of casualties...

Full text:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN3021264720100830
 
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