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Earl hammers Nova Scotia

Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves toward the Virgin Islands

Earl becomes a major hurricane as it moves toward the Virgin Islands

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301654
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/301654.shtml
 
Earl becomes a category four hurricane - moving away from the Virgin Islands

Earl becomes a category four hurricane - moving away from the Virgin Islands

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 302047
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING..AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM AST AND 900 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/302047.shtml
 
Re: Earl becomes a category four hurricane - moving away from the Virgin Islands

Re: Earl becomes a category four hurricane - moving away from the Virgin Islands

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 311259
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
900 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT EARL CAN
STILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EARL. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/311259.shtml
 
Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina

Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina

Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina<CITE class=byline></CITE>
<CITE class=byline></CITE>
<CITE class=byline>By Alex Morales and Brian K. Sullivan -<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>document.write(dateFormat(new Date(1283262943000),"mmm d, yyyy h:MM TT Z"));</SCRIPT> Aug 31, 2010 8:55 AM CT</CITE>

Earl, one of the two strongest hurricanes of the Atlantic season, headed toward the U.S. East Coast after passing north of Puerto Rico with sustained winds of 135 miles (215 kilometers) per hour.

The ?powerful? Category 4 hurricane, the second-highest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, was 200 miles north- northwest of Puerto Rico and moving west-northwest at 13 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its website at 9 a.m. Miami time.

The storm may strike North Carolina?s Outer Banks by Sept. 3 as a ?major? hurricane with winds of at least 111 mph, the center said. Tropical storm conditions are likely to affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today as heavy winds subside in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, it said.

Earl?s northward march poses ?a serious threat to the East Coast as we approach the Labor Day weekend,? Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist at commercial forecaster Planalytics Inc., said in an e-mail. U.S. beaches are traditionally crowded for the Sept. 6 holiday.
The hurricane center?s forecast maps show Earl is likely to pass east of the Eastern Seaboard, though a direct hit remains possible with any deviation from the current track.

Residents Alerted

?Residents and tourists anywhere from North Carolina up to New England should keep track of this storm,? Robbie Berg, a hurricane specialist at the center, said today in a telephone interview from Miami. ?It?s too early to tell what kind of impact will occur.?

The chances are 10 percent that the U.S. will experience hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph in the next three days, according to Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based venture that grew out of a U.K. government-supported tsunami initiative.

TSR puts the possibility of tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph at 60 percent in the same time period. Both Cape Hatteras, in North Carolina, and Chatham, Massachusetts, have a 10 percent risk of hurricane-force winds.

Providence, Rhode Island, and Montauk, New York, have a 35 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds within the next four days, TSR said in a statement today.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency will hold a conference call to discuss plans for Earl at 11:30 a.m. New York time.

Carolina Hurricanes

In 2003, Hurricane Isabel struck the Outer Banks as a Category 2 storm, killing at least 16 people and causing $3.4 billion of damage, half of it to insured property, according to the center.

Hurricane Fran was a major hurricane when it hit North Carolina in 1996, causing $1.6 billion of damage to insured property, the bulk of it there and in Virginia, according to National Hurricane Center records.

Earl?s winds have reached the same intensity as Danielle at its peak. Danielle late yesterday weakened to 70 mph over the North Atlantic as it became a post-tropical storm, an indication it no longer derives its energy from warm waters. Earl?s tropical storm-force winds extend up to 200 miles from its eye and hurricane-force winds reach 70 miles.

Earl is being followed across the Atlantic by Tropical Storm Fiona, which formed yesterday and remained a ?weak? system today with sustained winds of 40 mph, the hurricane center said.

Fiona?s Track

Fiona is 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands heading west-northwest at 24 mph, the center said at 8 a.m. Miami time. The storm is predicted to pass to the northeast on a course between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. A hit on Bermuda remains a possibility, graphics on the center?s website show.

Tropical storm watches, which indicate such conditions are expected within two days, were issued today for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius. A tropical storm warning is in place for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Earl blew the roofs off of buildings in Anguilla and destroyed at least one home in Antigua, according to an e-mailed report by Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd. Flooding also occurred on Antigua and 350 people were forced into shelters, according to the risk management company, based on Castries, Saint Lucia.

Tropical storm warnings were lifted for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands after Earl passed. The Turks and Caicos remain under a tropical-storm warning while the southeastern Bahamas are under a watch.

Hovensa Operations

Hovensa LLC?s St. Croix refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands operated although the island ports were shut as Earl passed to the east. The refinery sends finished products including heating oil and gasoline to the U.S. Gulf and East coasts, according to the company?s website.

?The outer rain bands of Hurricane Earl will continue to bring periods of torrential rainfall and tropical storm-force wind gusts across sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the morning hours,? the National Weather Service said in a local advisory at 6:24 a.m. Miami time.

?Due to very saturated soils across the local islands, flash flooding as well as mudslides can be expected with the heavier showers.?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, with the coming weeks usually the most active.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ricane-earl-tracks-toward-u-s-east-coast.html
 
Re: Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina

Re: Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina

Category 4 Earl headed for a close brush with North Carolina


Updated: 3:28 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

earl_aug31.jpg

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Earl, taken at 10:30am EDT 8/31/10. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.



Excerpt:


Track forecast for Earl

The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts. It is likely that Earl will being a 12-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 12% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, western Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 4% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 5% for Eastport, Maine, and 11% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.
.../

Complete text:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
 
Re: Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina

Re: Hurricane Earl Passes Puerto Rico, Heads for North Carolina

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 311452
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/311452.shtml?
 
Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane watch in effect for North Carolina

Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane watch in effect for North Carolina

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 312042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/312042.shtml
 
Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

`Powerful' Hurricane Earl Puts East Coast on Evacuation Alert

<CITE class=byline>By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales -<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>document.write(dateFormat(new Date(1283282054000),"mmm d, yyyy h:MM TT Z"));</SCRIPT> Aug 31, 2010 2:14 PM </CITE>

Emergency agencies along the Eastern Seaboard are preparing for the arrival of Hurricane Earl, which threatens to graze North Carolina and lash coastal Massachusetts with wind and rain before going ashore in Nova Scotia.

Evacuations may be needed if the storm doesn?t turn north, Craig Fugate, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, said in a conference call today. While Earl isn?t expected to make landfall in the U.S., even a small jog to the west from its current track will have an impact on the mid-Atlantic states, said Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center.

Earl, a Category 4 storm, or the second-strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, is on a path that would take it just past North Carolina?s Cape Hatteras early Sept. 3 and then on toward Nantucket and Cape Cod in Massachusetts later that day, according to the center. The storm ?will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage,? Jeff Masters, co- founder of Weather Underground Inc., said in his blog.

?The next few days are going to be very stressful for people on the East Coast from Hatteras to Boston,? said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist at commercial forecaster Planalytics Inc. ?The tracking models are fairly clustered together but there are enough errors built in where you can be off by 50 to 200 miles.?

Hatteras-Bound

Earl was 1,040 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras with maximum winds of 135 miles per hour (217 kilometers per hour) and moving west-northwest at 14 mph, according to a center advisory released at 2 p.m. Miami time.

The U.S. Coast Guard has put shipping in Norfolk, Virginia, on notice and the National Hurricane Center says it may issue hurricane watches along the mid-Atlantic coast later today.

?Residents and tourists anywhere from North Carolina up to New England should keep track of this storm,? Robbie Berg, a hurricane specialist at the center, said today in a telephone interview from Miami. ?It?s too early to tell what kind of impact will occur.?

Evacuation decisions are made at the state and local level, not by FEMA, Fugate said, adding the federal agency was speaking out to make sure people are prepared right away.

?We?ve actually had people moving from the West Coast to the East Coast to have enough teams to cover all the states, because this storm is going to parallel the coast and we want to have people ready to go in each of the states if there is a request,? he said.
Strike Odds

The chances are 10 percent that the U.S. will experience hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph in the next three days, according to Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based venture that grew out of a U.K. government-supported tsunami initiative.

TSR puts the possibility of tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph at 60 percent in the same time period. Both Cape Hatteras and Chatham, Massachusetts, have a 10 percent risk of hurricane-force winds.
Providence, Rhode Island, and Montauk, New York, have a 35 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds within the next four days, TSR said in a statement today.

?People only have two or three days to prepare,? said Rouiller. ?We can get some power outages in Massachusetts up through Halifax.?

Massachusetts Impact

Cape Cod and Nantucket island are likely to receive the highest wind gusts from Earl, said Meredith Croke, a meteorologist with AirDat LLC in North Carolina, which installs weather-gathering sensors on commercial aircraft.
?Long Island is tucked in a little more so it will be better for that region,? she said.

The waters off the mid-Atlantic U.S. are exceptionally warm right now, which will allow the storm to grow more intense and stay that way longer as it journeys north, Masters said by telephone. The water was 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in July, the highest on record going back to 1875, he said.

The good news for the East Coast is the storm?s weak side will be facing populated areas and its strong side will be far into the Atlantic, Masters said. Hurricanes spin counter- clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, so the top right quadrant or northeastern side contains the most powerful winds.

?It?s a full category less on the left side of the storm,? Masters said.

Canada Landfall

The current track shows the storm going ashore near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, on the morning of Sept. 4, Chris Fogarty, program supervisor for the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.

?It looks like a 75 to 80 percent chance decent winds will move into some part of Nova Scotia,? Fogarty said. ?The big question is, will it be hurricane strength when it arrives here.?

.../

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...st-on-evacuation-alert-should-path-shift.html
 
Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

FEMA

Updated: As Hurricane Earl Approaches, FEMA Urges East Coast Residents To Be Prepared

Families Should Visit Ready.gov to Learn Steps to Prepare for Hurricanes and Severe Weather
Release Date: August 31, 2010
Release Number: HQ-10-165

WASHINGTON - The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and its federal partners continue to closely monitor Hurricane Earl, as it moves past Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and toward the East Coast of the United States. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Earl is now a Category 4 hurricane. FEMA is closely coordinating with state, territorial, and local officials in the affected areas and along the East Coast and stands ready to support their response as needed.

State and local officials make decisions on evacuation orders. FEMA urges everyone to heed any evacuation decisions made by state and local officials and to take steps now to ensure they are prepared for possible severe weather, and remember that hurricanes and tropical storms frequently bring flash flooding as well. Anyone can visit www.ready.gov to learn more about how to prepare for an emergency. A Spanish version of the website is available at www.listo.gov.

"We continue to monitor Hurricane Earl and remain in close contact with state, territorial, and local officials to ensure they have the resources to respond if needed," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "I encourage everyone in the region and along the eastern seaboard to visit Ready.gov and take steps now to keep their family safe and secure. The most important thing for people living in Earl's potential tract to do is to listen to and follow the instructions of their local officials, including evacuation instructions if they are given."

Since this weekend, FEMA has been in constant contact with the White House and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to provide regular updates on the storm's developments. Fugate briefed DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano yesterday on FEMA's ongoing preparations and coordination for severe weather in the Atlantic Ocean, including Hurricane Earl.

The National Weather Service forecasts the center of Hurricane Earl to move into the open Atlantic today, and travel east of the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Although no watches or warnings are currently in effect for the mainland United States, history has shown that storm tracks can change quickly and unexpectedly. Officials are closely monitoring the areas from the Carolinas to New England, and FEMA is coordinating with the Governors and local officials along the East Coast to aggressively prepare for possible severe weather. Severe weather and flash floods can occur miles inland, and are possible even if a hurricane does not make landfall.

FEMA has activated the National Response Coordination Center and its Regional Response Coordination Centers in all four of its regional offices in the eastern United States, located in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. FEMA has designated a Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) and has personnel on the ground North Carolina at the state's Emergency Operations Center in Raleigh supporting the state, and is mobilizing personnel and supplies along the coast.

FEMA continues to support the Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in their response to Earl. FEMA staff are on the ground in both areas working closely with commonwealth and territorial officials, and FEMA has deployed an Incident Management Assistance Team (IMAT) to St. Thomas and to San Juan, where staff are on watch around the clock monitoring developments.

FEMA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Fiona, which according to the National Weather Service, is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands today. According to the National Weather Service, tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected today in Puerto Rico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The Governor of Puerto Rico has issued a State of Emergency.


FEMA is also coordinating across the federal government to ensure commonwealth and territorial officials have the support they need. Federal and other support includes:
  • Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has deployed a Regional Emergency Coordinator (REC) to the U.S. Virgin Islands in support of the FEMA Incident Management Assistance Team (IMAT) there, and has other resources prepositioned and ready for deployment.
  • Department of Defense (DOD) has activated a Defense Coordinating Officer (DCO) in St. Thomas and a State Emergency Preparedness Liaison Officer (SEPLO) team in Puerto Rico ready to support a response if needed.
  • U.S. NORTHCOM is conducting weather reconnaissance flyovers today, including one departing from St. Croix, and one departing from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss.
  • U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) has closed U S. Virgin Islands seaports and has redirected cruise ships slated for the area. Coast Guard assets have also been on alert and prepared to help in search and rescue efforts.
  • American Red Cross has personnel on the ground in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
FEMA has life-saving and life-sustaining commodities and supplies strategically located across the country to support states in their response, including in the areas of possible impact. These supplies, including water, meals, tarps, blankets, generators and other essential items, can be replenished through the national logistics supply chain.

The National Weather Service remains the source of official severe weather watches and warnings, including flash flooding which can take only a few minutes to develop in the case of heavy rains.

FEMA encourages all individuals in the region to listen to NOAA Weather Radio and their local news to monitor for severe weather updates, and to follow the directions provided by their local officials.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

Last Modified: Tuesday, 31-Aug-2010 17:01:03

http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=52539
 
Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

<TABLE border=0 cellPadding=2 align=center><TBODY><TR><TH colSpan=4>[SIZE=+1]Most Recent USA East Medium-Resolution Image[/SIZE] </TH></TR><TR><TD colSpan=4></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/


Press Release

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_FormView1 border=0 cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2><TABLE id=releaseTable border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD width="60%">8/31/2010</TD><TD>Contact:</TD><TD>Chris Mackey</TD></TR><TR><TD>Raleigh</TD><TD></TD><TD>(919) 733-5612</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Gov. Perdue Urges Residents/Visitors to be Storm-Ready as State Enters Peak of Hurricane Season

Declares September Emergency Preparedness Month

With Hurricane Earl churning in the Carribean, Gov. Bev Perdue is reminding North Carolina residents and visitors that this is a good time to update their emergency supplies kits and plans.

?While it is still too early to tell exactly what impact Hurricane Earl will have on our state, we do know that we all bear a responsibility to ensure we are ready for any type of emergency,? said Gov. Perdue.

The Governor urges every citizen to have both emergency plans and a supplies kit ready to sustain their family for three to seven days. Emergency kits are easy to assemble, with many of the supplies coming from items already around the house. Supplies should be kept in an easy-to-carry, water-tight container, such as a large plastic trash can or sturdy cardboard box lined with plastic trash bags. Your kit should include:
? Essential medications
? First aid kit and first aid book
? Cash and checkbook
? Copies of important documents ? insurance, birth certificates, social security cards, wills, tax and bank information, list of doctors and inventory of household goods
? Water - one gallon per person per day
? Water purification kit or bleach
? Non-perishable foods, such as canned meats, granola bars, instant soup and cereals, etc.
? Non-electric can opener
? Baby supplies: formula, bottles, pacifiers, soap, baby powder, clothing, blankets, baby wipes, disposable diapers, canned food and juices
? Seasonal changes of clothing, including sturdy shoes
? Blanket or sleeping bag per person
? Portable radio or television with extra batteries
? Flashlight and extra batteries
? Extra pair of eyeglasses or contacts
? Extra house keys and car keys
? Pet supplies: food, water, leash, carrier, bedding and vaccination records
? Books, cards, toys, things to occupy you and your child?s time
? Large plastic trash bags for waste, tarps and rain ponchos
? Bar soap and liquid detergent
? Anti-bacterial hand wipes or gel
? Personal hygiene items such as soap, shampoo, toothpaste, toothbrush and deodorant, etc.
? Feminine hygiene supplies
? Toilet paper

According to the National Weather Service, Hurricane Earl is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next several days, passing very near to the North Carolina coast early Friday morning. Hurricane force winds may be possible along the Outer Banks and sounds while tropical storm force winds may be felt as far inland as Interstate 95.

North Carolina Emergency Management is monitoring Hurricane Earl and assessing staffing and equipment needs to help the counties respond to any impacts from the storm. While no resources have been prepositioned at this point, Perdue said the state is prepared to move those assets very quickly if needed.

?Hopefully this storm will move through the area quickly, so that folks planning to go to our beaches this weekend can still enjoy the long Labor Day weekend,? said Gov. Perdue. ?But, above all, we want everyone to be safe.?

September is North Carolina?s peak month for hurricanes. Residents and vacationers should monitor those weather forecasts and listen to NOAA Weather Radio and the local news for severe weather updates and follow any direction provided by local officials.

Gov. Bev Perdue has proclaimed September as Emergency Preparedness Month to encourage families, businesses and schools to take steps to prepare themselves for hurricanes and all other types of emergencies. In the last five years North Carolina has experienced more than 175 tornadoes, more than 5,000 severe thunderstorms, a dozen tropical systems or their remnants as well as several blizzards, ice storms and heat waves. The governor?s proclamation of Emergency Preparedness Month coincides with National Preparedness Month, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and held each September to encourage Americans to prepare for emergencies.

A new video entitled ?Be Prepared, Be Safe? examines why it is so important for individuals and communities to be ready for any type of disaster. The video ? and and other information about planning for disasters of any kind ? is available at the Department of Crime Control and Public Safety Web site under the Division of Emergency Management at www.nccrimecontrol.org and www.readync.org. Emergency preparedness information is available in Spanish at www.listonc.org.

http://www.governor.state.nc.us/NewsItems/PressReleaseDetail.aspx?newsItemID=1322

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

Re: Large and intense Hurricane Earl moving northwestward - Hurricane Watch in effect for North Carolina

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011141
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS COULD SPREAD OVER
SAN SALVADOR ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/011141.shtml?




Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010903
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB...WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER.
HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 116 KT...WHICH WAS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM
THE SFMR WERE UNDER 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO
110 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

EARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT. FOR THE NEXT 36 OR
SO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE
CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE
CENTER OFFSHORE. THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM. ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE
HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A
GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS
EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
THIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 24.0N 71.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/010903.shtml?
 
Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane warnings issued

Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane warnings issued

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL THREATENS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
BOGUE INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS OVER
SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/011455.shtml


Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 011455
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL
SHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE
HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL
SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE
BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL
PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION
TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A
EARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.1N 72.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.7W 110 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.8N 75.2W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 73.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 60.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/011455.shtml?
 
Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom out ? Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on ? 3-Day track on ? 3-Day track off
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/152331.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
 
Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Image Updated: 4:18 PM GMT on September 01, 2010</TD><SCRIPT language=javascript> var prefix="at201007_sat"; var zoom=3; var suffix = ".jpg"; var zoomtext; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; function zoom_sat(dir) { if (dir=="in") zoom--; else zoom++; if (zoom < 0) zoom = 3; if (zoom > 3) zoom = 0; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } function anim_sat() { if (suffix==".jpg") { suffix="_anim.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/pause_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Stop"; } else { suffix=".jpg"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/play_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Animate"; } document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } </SCRIPT><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Animate</TD><TD></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 75px" class=nobr>Zoom Out</TD><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Zoom In</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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View Tropical Weather View Hurricane Archive

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Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

Island evacuations start as Earl nears East Coast

By TOM BREEN (AP) ? 11 minutes ago

Excerpt:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) ? Powerful Hurricane Earl wheeled toward the East Coast, driving the first tourists Wednesday from North Carolina vacation islands and threatening damaging winds and waves up the Atlantic seaboard over Labor Day weekend.

Visitors were taking ferries off Ocracoke Island and told to leave neighboring Cape Hatteras in North Carolina's Outer Banks, and federal authorities have warned people all along the Eastern seaboard to be prepared to evacuate.

Virginia's Gov. Bob McDonnell declared a state of emergency as a precaution, allowing the state to position staff and resources ahead of the storm. Emergency officials as far north as Maine urged people to have disaster plans and supplies ready.

Earl was still more than 700 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, with top sustained winds of 125 mph. It was on track to near the North Carolina shore late Thursday or early Friday and then blow north along the coast, with forecasters cautioning that it was still too early to tell how close the storm may come to land.

The National Weather Service issued a hurricane warning for much of the North Carolina coast and hurricane watches from Virginia to Delaware.
Not since Hurricane Bob in 1991 has such a powerful storm had such a large swath of the East Coast in its sights, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center.

"A slight shift of that track to the west is going to impact a great deal of real estate with potential hurricane-force winds," Feltgen said.

.../
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gVWjsPEiqe1tEu2mhBIRaxxGi8owD9HV82P00
 
Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

Re: Large Hurricane Earl threatens portions of the Mid Atlantic - Hurricane WARNINGS issued

August 31, 2010

Remember Your Pets if You're Getting Out of Earl's Way

Residents in path of Hurricane Earl urged to include animals in disaster plans

The Humane Society of the United States reminds coastal residents from the Carolinas to Maine to take their pets with them if they evacuate. Hurricane Earl is expected to race along the East coast from North Carolina to Canada beginning Friday and continuing into the Labor Day weekend. Coastal residents should be prepared to take their pets with them if asked to evacuate.

"It is crucial that residents are prepared to take pets with them when evacuating in the face of this potentially destructive storm," advised Laura Bevan, Eastern regional director for The HSUS. "If it isn't safe for you, it isn't safe for your pets."

The exact impact of Hurricane Earl is unknown at this time, but the storm could result in high winds, heavy rainfall and possible flooding along the East coast.

Pet owners should have an emergency plan that includes the safety of their animals, and always be informed about the potential for evacuation in their area. They should also prepare an emergency supply kit, which should include:

? Three-or-more-day supply of food in airtight, waterproof container, and drinking water.
? Bowls for food and water.
? Current photos and physical description of your pets, including details on markings.
? Medications, vaccination records and pet first aid supplies.
? Comfort items such as a toy and blanket.
? Small garbage bags.
? For dogs include: leash, harness and a sturdy carrier large enough to use as a sleeping area.
? For cats include: litter and litter box and a sturdy carrier large enough for transport.

Pet owners should be aware that many evacuation shelters do not accept pets, and they must plan their destination in advance. Hotels and motels may be willing to lift "no pet" restriction in an emergency. Friends and family members living outside the area may be able to provide shelter too. Please check with your local animal shelter or emergency management office to determine if a pet friendly emergency shelter will be set up in your location.

More than 358 million pets reside in 63 percent of American households. A Zogby International poll found that 61 percent of pet owners will not evacuate if they cannot bring their pets with them. For more tips on preparedness plans that include your pets, visit humanesociety.org/prepare.


http://www.humanesociety.org/news/press_releases/2010/08/hurricane_earl_pets_evacuate_083110.html
 
Dangerous and large Cat 4 hurricane Earl moving toward Mid Atlantic - Watches and warnings extended to Massachusetts

Dangerous and large Cat 4 hurricane Earl moving toward Mid Atlantic - Watches and warnings extended to Massachusetts

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 012051
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/012051.shtml
 
Re: Dangerous and large Cat 4 hurricane Earl moving toward Mid Atlantic - Watches and warnings extended to Massachusetts

Re: Dangerous and large Cat 4 hurricane Earl moving toward Mid Atlantic - Watches and warnings extended to Massachusetts

Hurricane Earl - The Astronaut View

Posted September 2, 2010
(677 KB, JPEG) acquired August 30, 2010

<!-- AddThis Button BEGIN --><STYLE type=text/css> #at20mc {margin: 0; padding: 0; font: 11px/18px 'Lucida Sans', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif;} #at15s_head {display: none;} #at16pf {display: none;} #at15s {padding: 0px; border: 1px solid #808080!important;} #at_hover .at_item, #at_share .at_item {color: #333333!important;} #at_hover .at_item:hover,#at_hover .at_item.athov,#at_share .at_item:hover,#at_share .at_item.athov{text-decoration: none; color:#333333!important; border:1px solid #f0f4f7!important; background: #f0f4f7!important;} #at_msg, #at16p label, #at_share .at_item, #at16p, #at15s, #at16p form input, #at16p form textarea {font: 11px/18px 'Lucida Sans', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif!important;} #share {margin: 18px 0 -18px 18px; padding: 0 0 0 0;} .image-caption ul.highres {padding: 18px 0 0 0;} </STYLE> Share this image
<!-- AddThis Button END --><SCRIPT type=text/javascript> var addthis_options = 'email, digg, delicious, myspace, google, facebook, live, twitter, stumbleupon, more'; var addthis_exclude = 'print'; var addthis_offset_top = 3; var addthis_offset_left = -9; var addthis_hover_delay = 400; var addthis_localize = { share_caption: "Share this image" }; // var addthis_config = { data_use_flash: false }; </SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js?pub=xa-4a5e804627659a64"></SCRIPT>The relatively placid view from the International Space Station belied the potent forces at work in Hurricane Earl as it hovered over the tropical Atlantic Ocean on August 30. With maximum sustained winds of 135 miles (215 kilometers) per hour, the storm was classified as a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale as it passed north of the Virgin Islands.
In this photograph captured with a digital SLR camera by NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock, Earl had a distinct eye that spanned about 17 miles (28 kilometers). Most of the storm had a seemingly uniform top, though the bottom edge of the image gives some sense of the towering thunderheads forming over the ocean. The solar panels of the ISS remind us that the sun is still shining, at least on ISS Expedition 24.
Around the time of the photograph on August 30, the National Hurricane Center reported that Earl was centered near latitude 19.3 degrees North, longitude 64.7 degrees West, about 110 miles (180 kilometers) northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The storm was moving west-northwest at 15 miles (24 km) per hour.
On the same day, scientists participating in NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes field campaign snapped their own photos of the storm, which you can <A href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/nasahqphoto/4946229072/">see here.
"Hurricane Earl is gathering some serious strength," Wheelock wrote from his perch on ISS. "It is incredible what a difference a day makes when you’re dealing with this force of nature. Please keep a watchful eye on this one...not sure if Earl will go quietly into the night like Danielle."
  1. References
  2. National Hurricane Center. (2010, August 30). Hurricane Earl Advisory Archive. Accessed September 1, 2010.
  3. NASA. (2010, August 31). Douglas Wheelock's photos on "AstroWheels" TwitPics. Accessed September 1, 2010.
  4. NASA. (2010, August 31). Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes. Accessed September 1, 2010. More images of this event in Natural Hazards
NASA image courtesy NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Caption by Michael Carlowicz.
<DL class=details><DT>Instrument: <DD>ISS </DD></DL>

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Re: Dangerous and large Cat 4 hurricane Earl moving toward Mid Atlantic - Watches and warnings extended to Massachusetts

Re: Dangerous and large Cat 4 hurricane Earl moving toward Mid Atlantic - Watches and warnings extended to Massachusetts

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------
location...27.8n 73.8w
about 520 mi...840 km sse of cape hatteras north carolina
maximum sustained winds...140 mph...220 km/hr
present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/hr
minimum central pressure...932 mb...27.52 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* bogue inlet north carolina northeastward to the north
carolina/virginia border including the pamlico and albemarle
sounds.

A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of the north carolina/virginia border to cape henlopen
delaware.
* woods hole to sagamore beach massachusetts...including marthas
vineyard and nantucket.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* cape fear to west of bogue inlet north carolina.
* north of the north carolina/virginia border to sandy hook new
jersey...including delaware bay south of slaughter beach and the
chesapeake bay south of new point comfort.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* sandy hook new jersey to woods hole massachusetts...including
block island and long island sound.
* north of sagamore beach to the mouth of the merrimack river
massachusetts.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests in northern new england and southeastern canada should
monitor the progress of earl.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by
your local national weather service forecast office.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm edt...0300 utc...the center of hurricane earl was located
near latitude 27.8 north...longitude 73.8 west. Earl is moving
toward the north-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. This motion is
expected to continue tonight with a turn to the north on thursday.
On the forecast track...the core of the hurricane will approach the
north carolina coast by late thursday...and move near or over the
outer banks of north carolina thursday night. The center is
expected to pass near or offshore of the delmarva peninsula on
friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on
the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely tonight and thursday...but a gradual weakening
trend is anticipated thereafter.

Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles...150 km...from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km.

The minimum central pressure estimated from noaa hurricane hunter
aircraft observations is 932 mb...27.52 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
winds...tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the north
carolina coast within the warning area by thursday afternoon with
hurricane force winds occurring by late thursday. Tropical storm
force winds will likely reach the coast from virginia northward to
new jersey by late thursday night or early friday.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level within the hurricane warning
area and the lower chesapeake bay. Elsewhere within the tropical
storm warning area...storm surge will raise water levels by as much
as 1 to 3 feet above ground level. Near the coast...the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Rainfall...accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches...are expected over portions of eastern
north carolina including the outer banks. Accumulations of 1 to 2
inches are possible farther to the north along the immediate
mid-atlantic coast.

Surf...large swells from earl will continue to affect the bahamas
and the east coast of the united states through friday. These
swells will likely cause dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 am edt.
Next complete advisory...500 am edt.

$$
forecaster pasch


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/012347.shtml
 
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