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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

When these questions first occurred to me I was primarily thinking about the U.S. government, but then decided it could apply to any government.

I think that if/when this pandemic transitions to a more severe form, one with higher transmissibility and lethality in all people of any age, then most governments are by necessity going to try to downplay it some. They will not have many tools in their toolbelt and will fall back on what they know can have some effect: social distancing, masks, lockdowns...etc. They will of course take it very seriously and try to get the people in their country to take it seriously, but will also try to not panic them. So, I do not think we will have the whole story from any government. And we have seen that the scientific community is afraid of getting out too far ahead of hard data with large numbers of data points. So the scientific community will not be providing the whole story until it is somewhat already too late. What does that leave us? We need to continue to gather news information and data that is being released ahead of peer review.

The desire by everyone, (governments, industry, media, individuals....ourselves), for this pandemic to be over sets us up to making some very bad mistakes societally. If we are not prepared to look at what is happening with an unbiased eye and make wise decisions accordingly then we run the risk of falling victim to the virus. It appears that where there is hubris, the virus strikes hardest.
 
Okieman,
Except that when the fundamental has spoken, for example vitamin D, between Russia and or China which is doing the right thing on time?

I am not talking to you about France: I had understood in its time a member of this:
https://cna-alimentation.fr/

but ethics is for others, obviously ...

I'm nice, I only tackle the vitamin D part, but I wonder if the boss of the C.D.C (the first) will be able to age in her function, given the inventory of the vaccine file.

ethics is not a woman's subject, is it?

To be forgiven:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oz_fK97ggwc
 
Okieman
I am not overly concerned by the variants. The virus is, and will continue to, favour those mutations that give it a selective advantage in the population in which it is circulating. As more of its potential hosts have some level of immunity, due to previous infection or vaccination, the older dominant forms will wain and new strains, which already exist but at low levels, will become more common. Our immune systems have developed, over millions of years, to deal with this phenomenon which is normal for all pathogens. This particular virus changes by a combination of single nucleotide point mutations and recombination, the former has a limited effect on immunity and the later has, so far, not produced anything that has a major impact on acquired immunity. In the naive population some strains are better adapted but in those with some level of prior immunity our immune response can adapt to any variant, as most of the antibodies and T cells are still functional, and they will give adequate protection while the immune systems makes new ones to any changed antigenic sites.
The situation in India is concerning not because of the circulating variants but due to the relatively poor health care system relative to Europe and America which have been the areas with the highest disease burden. Last week India had about 160 new cases per 100,000 compared to 120 in the US, 190 in Brazil, 450 in Turkey and 325 in France. Human behaviour is much the greatest driver of new cases and in some less developed nations with large populations of poor people with very limited ability to maintain physical distance and avoid contacts plus very little surge capacity in their health care systems the potential for disaster is very high. India meets these criteria and its case count increased by over 50% last week and has the potential to go a lot higher. The time lag between infection and deaths means their problems are just beginning and they need all the help the rest of us can give them immediately or we will see a massacre on a quite new scale. Up to this point in the pandemic health care systems have been locally stressed but not total overwhelmed to the point many areas in a country are only able help a fraction of the population that need support - India has the potential to show us what that looks like.
 
India is a country with x religions and x medicine. This agent is an evil agent who drives all structures not level.

If this great country uses its knowledge, a nasal vaccine will be within two months.

If she refuses that, it will be hell for a long time ...
 
Bertrand India has significant vaccine manufacturing capacity but bottlenecks in its supply chain for key components due to the manufacturing countries being outside India. It does not have as strong a basic research base. Nasal vaccines have been extensively worked on in the West but no one has, yet, managed to get one to work as effectively as the injected vaccines. In theory they should be a great way to administer a vaccine for this virus as they are likely to induce a strong IgA response in the nasal tract which is the primary point of infection. Why they have not been successful I do not know but hopefully there will be a break-thorough but it is unlikely to come in time to help India with its current problems. It will have to go through the clinical trials process and then will have a manufacturing problem as there is not the infrastructure, which there is for injectable vaccines, so the delivery system capacity will need to be built largely from scratch.
 
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@JJakson, your words are correct and well founded, except that, the facts produced, have reshuffled the cards.


An European start-up would not see an interest in bringing to the Hindus, what is needed on the one hand and neighboring countries would not be happy to give a helping hand?

The fire in India must be stopped, and if you have Mr Fauci's position on the solution at your disposal, I am interested ...

He made a big mistake that must be corrected.

By the way, the Turkish doctors in Germany, having taken 5 hours to propose a vaccine, how long they need for the nasal vaccine solution adapted for the situation in India?
 
Okieman said:
When these questions first occurred to me I was primarily thinking about the U.S. government, but then decided it could apply to any government.

I think that if/when this pandemic transitions to a more severe form, one with higher transmissibility and lethality in all people of any age, then most governments are by necessity going to try to downplay it some. They will not have many tools in their toolbelt and will fall back on what they know can have some effect: social distancing, masks, lockdowns...etc. They will of course take it very seriously and try to get the people in their country to take it seriously, but will also try to not panic them. So, I do not think we will have the whole story from any government. And we have seen that the scientific community is afraid of getting out too far ahead of hard data with large numbers of data points. So the scientific community will not be providing the whole story until it is somewhat already too late. What does that leave us? We need to continue to gather news information and data that is being released ahead of peer review.

The desire by everyone, (governments, industry, media, individuals....ourselves), for this pandemic to be over sets us up to making some very bad mistakes societally. If we are not prepared to look at what is happening with an unbiased eye and make wise decisions accordingly then we run the risk of falling victim to the virus. It appears that where there is hubris, the virus strikes hardest.
Click to expand...

I know I am really tired of this pandemic. I have been basically stuck in the house for a year. It is hard to remain objective when you have been deprived of basic social interactions.

All I can say is that everyone needs to follow the news around the world. Some news is manipulated but if you look enough on a regular basis you will be able to see patterns and a thread of truth. For me the breaking point in the US was the Gulf Oil Spill. The area was shut down to media. The fish products from the gulf were declared safe to eat. And the detergent that was poured into the gulf "disappeared" the oil in three days! Magic! Even Obama went swimming in the water. Meanwhile, no one in Florida was eating the gulf products for months and months.

Then we saw the nuclear mishap in Japan caused by the earthquake of 2011. While the government was saying the nuclear reactors at Fukushima were ok, they were actually failing. After some days, they had to admit the reality.

This is what happens...and don't even ask me about China...

1) Don't publicize, try to fix it fast.

2) Downplay it. Hopefully the quick fixes will work.

3) Get public relations policy in place in case the first two options fail.

4) Admit something...but not the possible worst case scenario. Reassure.

5) Drop small hints publicly about what is really going on. Tell leaders to get ready to message the public with "don't worry, be happy" mantras. (Conspiracy theories start to run rampant.)

6) Try to manage the situation without telling the whole truth, unless the whole truth is really fantastic. Keep reassuring people, the markets.....Meanwhile, identify food sources, military threats, domestic threats, etc. just-in-case tshtf.

7) Repeat.

How many years was it before it was admitted to that there WERE carcinogens in the World Trade Center debris?

So - bottom line...stay informed...look at all sides of each issue...use your common sense.

If you have any medical questions consult your medical practitioner. Please do not take medical advice from the internet.
 
I am not overly concerned by the variants. The virus is, and will continue to, favour those mutations that give it a selective advantage in the population in which it is circulating. As more of its potential hosts have some level of immunity, due to previous infection or vaccination, the older dominant forms will wain and new strains, which already exist but at low levels, will become more common. Our immune systems have developed, over millions of years, to deal with this phenomenon which is normal for all pathogens. This particular virus changes by a combination of single nucleotide point mutations and recombination, the former has a limited effect on immunity and the later has, so far, not produced anything that has a major impact on acquired immunity. In the naive population some strains are better adapted but in those with some level of prior immunity our immune response can adapt to any variant, as most of the antibodies and T cells are still functional, and they will give adequate protection while the immune systems makes new ones to any changed antigenic sites.
The situation in India is concerning not because of the circulating variants but due to the relatively poor health care system relative to Europe and America which have been the areas with the highest disease burden. Last week India had about 160 new cases per 100,000 compared to 120 in the US, 190 in Brazil, 450 in Turkey and 325 in France. Human behaviour is much the greatest driver of new cases and in some less developed nations with large populations of poor people with very limited ability to maintain physical distance and avoid contacts plus very little surge capacity in their health care systems the potential for disaster is very high. India meets these criteria and its case count increased by over 50% last week and has the potential to go a lot higher. The time lag between infection and deaths means their problems are just beginning and they need all the help the rest of us can give them immediately or we will see a massacre on a quite new scale. Up to this point in the pandemic health care systems have been locally stressed but not total overwhelmed to the point many areas in a country are only able help a fraction of the population that need support - India has the potential to show us what that looks like..
Click to expand...

First of all JJackson I want to say that I appreciate and value your thoughts on the various subjects discussed here. I agree with what you have wrote up above concerning the poor health care system in India and that human behavior is the greatest driver of new cases. There is no question that if more caution had been taken by the government and individuals in India then the tremendous spike in cases we are seeing right now would be much diminished.

But I must take some issue, in a civil manner, with your stance as described up above concerning the variants. While one can take a wide view of human populations and immunity development over large periods of time, it is problematic to do so without also looking near term at the great amount of loss and suffering which can transpire on the road to population immunity. A case in point is the outbreak taking place in India at this moment. If you look at the graph for India over the past year you can see that there was a first wave and then very low infection rates afterward, for quite some time. It is believed that a degree of herd immunity had been acquired which forestalled very much continued transmission of the virus. It was definitely still present, but was essentially a slow burning ember. The lax attitude of the government and a large part of the population developed and was present for some time. It did not occur all of a sudden, but rather developed over the course of several months. And it was only when a new set of variants, with a sufficient number of mutations which conferred greater transmissibility and severity (the UK variant being one) arose that the present viral wildfire flared into being. Will immunity develop in those exposed and live, or in those who are vaccinated and thus develop some degree of immunity? Yes! But this immunity will only be useful in the time of it's duration, assuming immunity wanes as predicted, and as long as another variant which has not made the mutations necessary to circumvent it has not arisen to light a new viral fire. Over sufficient time the human race will develop some degree of immunity to this particular virus, as it has done with many others. But this time may need to be measured in decades. And during this time how many viral wildfires will the human race have to suffer?

I am concerned over new variants. Maybe the present variants can be successfully battled by the vaccines and treatments we have now. But this is an arms race. And one where we are continually trying to catch up. Can we and will we continue to fight the good fight in this area? Yes! But how many fires can the human race endure? We are starting to see technological and economic cracks form in our global economy. At the moment we have serious political fractures in many nations. A continuous procession of new variants puts stress on a stressed out world. They are not the only dangers.
 
Okieman
India has 'only' had about 3% of its population infected or vaccinated to-date and many of those are are too recent to have any immunity so herd immunity is not going to be a significant factor - regardless of the circulating variants. The strains you mentioned are at very low levels against the background (see https://covariants.org/per-country) but the data is of low quality due to the very few full genome sequences. What there is shows most of the sequences to be of the oldwild types with B.1.1.7 at under 20% being the most common of the variants. This virus builds in waves, and the variants are bit players in the general picture, but need to be watched in case that changes. This report gives a useful guide to the VOCs and how they stack up against the wildtypes in terms of transmission & morbidity - in general the differences are fairly modest. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/de...=pdf&containerItemId=content/eurosurveillance
In my earlier post I referred to the immune system's ability to adapt to variants which is achieved by the process of somatic hypermutation which I attempted to explain in post #14 of this thread https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum.../jjackson-s-workshop/895212-covid-19-immunity
 
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JJackson,
While I do not have the article in hand, I distinctly remember it being reported that it is believed that over 50% of the population had been exposed to the "original" strain. In the article they speculated this is why India had not experienced another wave after the first. It is reported that the UK variant is predominant in New Delhi. But within Maharashtra state it was reported on April 14th that 61% of the samples were the "Double Mutant" (B.1.617). Here is a link to the article:
https://scroll.in/latest/992222/cor...ashtra-show-double-mutant-variant-says-report

It is obvious that there is a hodge podge of different variants, but all indications are that the main drivers of this latest wave is the UK Variant and the so-called Double Mutant Variant (B.1.617). Without these new variants being introduced and developing in-situ, India would probably still be enjoying a fairly low level of infections. If one wonders whether it is these new variants which are driving things here I would simply point to the very significant increase in younger adults and even children becoming seriously ill. Something changed in India over the past couple of months. Human behavior is definitely one variable, but all evidence points to introduction within the population of these new variants.

I have not dived into the virology, and do not intend to do so. Virology is not something I have very in-depth knowledge. But the epidemiological evidence that you can glean from the news media and other sources point to something new and dangerous has been introduced. See the UK, South Africa, and Brazil variants. The timing is right for these variants to have been seeded in India from other places and then gain a foothold and increase. And with it now passaging through so many people there is now concern that another generation of variants can arise with even more dangerous capabilities. See B.1.617, and maybe B.1.618, and maybe one or two variants not even identified yet. This virus has shown it's capability to mutate into forms more transmissible and dangerous. We must be prepared for it to continue to do so.
 
Please take a look at the link you put up above (see https://covariants.org/per-country) for India. The data they report is only up to March 22, 2021. A lot has happened in India since that date.

Also, see on page 7 of the Eurosurveillance report the conclusion. It does not sound like a modest difference.

<snip>
Conclusion
We show an increased risk for hospitalisations and ICU
admission associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variants
B.1.1.7/SGTF, B.1.351 and P.1, also in middle-aged individuals, which underlines the necessity to rapidly reach
high levels of vaccine coverage and adhere to public
health measures to reduce SARS-CoV-2 incidence and
prevent severe cases. <snip>
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/del...rosurveillance
 
I am not at all trying to be argumentative JJackson. In fact I may not continue this discussion very much farther since it is not really of much value for us to argue here. I just feel strongly that this virus is not at all done changing and want folks to be prepared for what might be coming. I believe in hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
 
@Okieman: as we seem unable to control the butterfly effect, unlike China, which we criticize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

we must consider that all the variants are already there.

In such a framework poor vaccination, implemented, can be the solution, when we know the reality of vaccination programs in the world?

https://www.france24.com/fr/émissions/l- Entretien/20210409-immunologue-am%C3%A9ricain-anthony-fauci-une-pand%C3%A9mie-mondiale-implement-une-r % C3% A9ponse-worldwide

Through inappropriate actions, the world, like China, will shut itself down:
https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiKmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jb20vYWZyaXF1ZS9tb25kZS 01NjgzMjE0NdIBLmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jb20vYWZyaXF1 ZS9tb25kZS01NjgzMjE0NS5hbXA?hl=fr&gl=FR&ceid=FR%3A fr

It can be done gracefully or in pain, but it is going to be because of inappropriate advice that should be punished ...
 
"I distinctly remember it being reported that it is believed that over 50% of the population had been exposed to the "original" strain."
I do not know what they mean by 'exposed' but if 50% of the Indian population had COVID that would be 700 million cases or about 4 times the global cases to date or about 35 times the confirmed Indian cases.
 
Okieman said:
I am not at all trying to be argumentative JJackson. In fact I may not continue this discussion very much farther since it is not really of much value for us to argue here. I just feel strongly that this virus is not at all done changing and want folks to be prepared for what might be coming. I believe in hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Click to expand...

I think the above is prudent advice. Watch global and local news. Stay informed. Use at least two sources.

We do not know many things about how viruses develop, evolve, and spread throughout the world. Among the entire world's experts, who timely predicted this pandemic or the H1N1 2009 one?

Nobody.
 
See the first article in this FluTrackers thread:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...-mystery-of-india-s-plummeting-covid-19-cases

The Mystery Of India's Plummeting COVID-19 Cases
February 2, 2021, 01:36 PM
<snip>
Serological surveys ? random testing for antibodies ? show that a majority of people in certain areas of India may have already been exposed to the coronavirus, without developing symptoms. Last week, preliminary findings from a fifth serological study of 28,000 people in India's capital showed that 56% of residents already have antibodies, though a final report has not yet been published. The figures were higher in more crowded areas. Last summer, another survey by Mumbai's health department and a government think tank found that 57% of Mumbai slum-dwellers and 16% of people living in other areas had antibodies suggesting prior exposure to the coronavirus.
<snip>
https://news.wbfo.org/post/mystery-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases
 
Okieman Comment: Well, while we cannot be sure how other governments will react to new potentially more deadly and transmissible variants, we are getting some sense about how India's government is reacting. See the article below.

Hat tip to Crofsblog, where I found this article posted. I have also posted it on another thread on FluTrackers concerning India here:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...a-complete-massacre-of-data-as-well-as-people


India cases up as scientists appeal to Modi to release data

By ASHOK SHARMA

NEW DELHI (AP) ? Indian scientists appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to publicly release virus data that would allow them to save lives as coronavirus cases climbed again Friday, prompting the army to open its hospitals in a desperate bid to control a massive humanitarian crisis.

<snip>

India?s pandemic response has been marred by insufficient data and the online appeal ? signed by over 350 scientists Friday afternoon ? asks government to release data about the sequencing of virus variants, testing, recovered patients and how people were responding to vaccines.

<snip>

The appeal urged the government to widen the number of organizations sequencing the virus to study its evolution, and also increase the number of samples being studied. It added that restrictions on importing scientific raw materials ? to make India ?self reliant? is a key goal for Modi and his government ? was an obstacle. ?Such restrictions, at this time, only serve to impede our ability to deal with COVID-19,? it said.

<snip>

https://apnews.com/article/asia-paci...%20Subscribers
 
I am interested in all the in-depth articles that will be written on the strategy deployed in India to fight against covid, because it concerns and will concern many countries ...

May the best win ...
 
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