• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

I have been loosely following this and I believe that CAL.20C is a variant of B.1.426 if anyone is looking to dig into it deeper...

the CAL.20C strain may be partially responsible for the magnitude of the surge in COVID-19 on the West Coast of the US. The S protein L452R mutation is within a known receptor binding domain that has been found to be markedly resistant to certain monoclonal antibodies to the spike protein(4). Mutations in this domain may be resistant to polyclonal sera as seen in convalescent patients or those post vaccination(5). The functional effect of this mutation in concert with other detected mutations in CAL.20C, both in terms of infectivity and antibody resistance is unknown at this time

source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.21249786v1.full-text
 
Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic
Sam Baker

Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years — killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.

The big picture: The U.S. and the world are in a race to control the virus before these variants can gain a bigger foothold. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. And that also means an end to the pandemic may be getting further away.
  • “It may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal,” Singapore’s education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
<snip>

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-v...dly-88cdee57-a640-484e-860f-2cec9f950a94.html

Okieman Comment: Finally, an article that pulls no punches on what we may be facing.
 
Bayer and Rentschler to help produce CureVac's COVID-19 shot

FEBRUARY 1, 20213:30 AM. UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
By Reuters Staff

BERLIN (Reuters) - CureVac has signed up pharmaceuticals giant Bayer and contract drugmaker Rentschler to help to produce its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, joining the global push to boost vaccine supplies.

German biotech company CureVac, which began late-stage testing of the vaccine in December and expects to announce interim results this quarter, said it aims to produce up to 300 million doses in 2021 and between 600 million and 1 billion doses in 2022.

Bayer, making the first foray into vaccine manufacturing in its 160-year history, expects to produce 160 million doses of the CureVac shot in 2022 at its Wuppertal site in western Germany, head of pharma Stefan Oelrich told a news conference.

Though the volume target was for next year, Bayer hopes to be able to launch production in 2021, Oerlich said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...them&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter
 
I think this view is overly pessimistic. Mutations in the RNA sequence have been occurring from day one but none yet have been shown to do anything very dramatic. When the immune system makes antibodies, B cells and T cells they are to any part of the virus it encounters. The more identical, or very nearly identical, bits are encountered the more strong the response in the cells with matching receptors start dividing rapidly. This leaves you with a very broad cocktail of antibodies not just against spike but recognition of short peptides from all over the genome, of which the Spike is a small part and the RBD a very small part. While SNPs (Single Point Mutation) may reduce or stop binding for one antibody at one point their effect is not likely make much difference to thousands of others. Should you get infected again by a slightly different strain the other antibodies you have, to all the unchanged areas, should wake up the immune system which will fill in the gaps by making anti-bodies to the changed sites.

I had just posted on these variants, including a table showing the effect on binding of a range of mAbs, when tested against the variant SNPs. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum.../895212-covid-19-immunity?p=905844#post905844

Where I think the post is too optimistic is the 4 or 5 years to the end of the pandemic. This depends on what they mean by end. The H1N1(2009) flu pandemic has not ended we have just got accustomed to living with it, on the upside it displaced the existing strain so was a straight swap but with the added advantage the old strain had oseltamivir resistance and the new did not . The Ebola epidemics have all ended but are being constantly reseeded from the animal host reservoir. I expect this to become endemic like the four CoVs that cause common colds but with much more severe symptoms for those who have never encountered it before. For those who have, or been vaccinated, it may not be much more than a cold at least for a few years, but if it is circulating like colds you will probably get your immune boost every few years anyway leaving it as an additional problem in the flu season which we will have to adapt to.
 
I just know what has been reported to be happening in South Africa and Manaus Brazil, as well as the United Kingdom and Portugal. I remember what it felt like when I watched Italy spiral into pandemic chaos and lockdown. And then New York just a few short weeks later. I don't understand all of the virology. But I do learn from the mistakes and experiences of others. We have traveled this path before, and it was a hard and rocky road.
 
Shiloh said:
Source: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/f...covid-secrets/

China's COVID Secrets
February 2, 2021 / 1h 24m
Season 2021: Episode 9

The untold story of the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and how China responded. Chinese scientists and doctors, international disease experts and health officials reveal missed opportunities to suppress the outbreak and lessons for the world.
Click to expand...

As usual we are ignored.

SARS Deja-vu for ProMed? Ok...ProMed made no new posts after the 1st one for two days and then only 8 posts in the first 9 days? What kind of "emergency" reaction IS this? Really...?


Click image for larger version Name: promed01.PNG Views: 1 Size: 210.6 KB ID: 906080



https://www.wired.com/story/how-promed-crowdsourced-the-arrival-of-covid-19-and-sars/


We, however, knew this was a problem and our team of medical doctors, scientists, and "regular" people made 133 posts in the same 9 days. link

Also from ProMed:

"I think this go around, China has been completely transparent. SARS was a lesson on the need for transparency. I’ve been very impressed with them. They’ve been putting out data whenever they’ve had it. I think in Wuhan, what happened was they were just overwhelmed. And they were very honest. They admitted that they basically didn’t have the surge capacity to handle the volume, which is why they ended up building two hospitals in less than a week."

March 5, 2020

https://www.oliverwymanforum.com/cit...ronavirus.html
 

Attachments

  • promed01.webp
    promed01.webp
    97 KB · Views: 3
It was interesting to reread that part of the thread. However there is no hard information in it until the report issued on the 9th which confirmed that it was a Corona virus of the SARS like strain and Treyfish's post giving 15 as the confirmed case count. The following day Eddie Holmes uploaded a complete genome sequence on behalf of the Chinese team. Prior to that the thread had that it was very likely a Corona virus and a lot of quotes via the media, some of which were wrong and some informed speculation. ProMED's posts and dates match the confirmed data as it came out.
Here at FluTrackers and in the media generally we can quote anybody even if they are at odds with the source material, this can be an advantage some of those people may turn out to be right and some not so much. The WHO, and some others, try and adopt a stricter standard not stating what they do not know with a high degree of certainty as 'known' and separating that from what is thought likely by specialist experts.
 
Sharon granted there was a problem in that there were enough cases of pneumonia to be noticed and China reported that and we, and others, picked it up around the 30th but after that there was speculation until the 9th when a SL Corona virus was announced.
 
No. We picked up some weird pneumonia before December 30. As usual with China, it is not always clear what you are seeing because they cover it up first. And - we let the public see how the sausage is made. I am proud of that. We do not have private conferences and then decide what gets published with an emphasis on government sanctioned news. Each participant here makes their own decision on what to post. Sometimes we meander around on a thread but that is the real search for the truth. We take the reader along on the journey with us.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...ntation-of-possible-early-2019-outbreak-trend
 
the best that I found about b117-origin is this :
https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/scientists-think-know-when-how-4866103
they identified the person with the Sep.20 sample and he lived near Canterbury.
Apparently they don't know or don't want to say where he/she may have got it from.
The first outbreak was in Kent, followed by Medway.
--------------------------------
they should check all hospitals and doctors and ask all people with chronic disease from
the Canterbury region to report.
And I wonder why I can't find these questions and requests from other people.
We need to know how these strains emerge and how to prevent it
 
Last edited:
COVID-19 Vaccination Tracker

Data are from the CDC COVID Data Tracker, last updated on 02/03

Total doses distributed is the number of vaccine doses that have been distributed to facilities across the United States by the federal government.
Number received first dose is the number of individuals in the United States recorded in CDC database to have received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Number received second dose is the number of individuals in the United States recorded in CDC database to have received the second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Newly distributed per 100,000 is the number of vaccine doses per 100,000 that have been distributed on 02/03 to facilities across the United States by the federal government.
Percent of population partially vaccinated (one dose received) is the percentage of the total US population that has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine according to CDC database. The total US population is derived from the Census.
Percent of population fully vaccinated (two doses received) is the percentage of the total US population that has received at two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine according to CDC database. The total US population is derived from the Census.

Vaccination Status in The United States

https://covid19.emory.edu/Vaccine-Tracker
 
It appears global viral outbreaks occur in sporadic waves throughout. Not all areas experience outbreaks at the same time. It is rolling.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom