Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[sharon sanders]

I know flu researchers who say they are still learning. I think common sense has to prevail here. COVID-19 is spread among people who are in close proximity. We know this from the church choir members who infected their fellow members. So avoid closed rooms with groups of people - especially if they are yelling, singing, etc.

There are documented instances in China of people becoming infected whose indoor restaurant table was close to a test positive person. So avoid sitting inside a restaurant at a table that is close to other tables.

It appears cruise ships were a petri dish for COVID-19 in the pre-mask, temperature taking protocol.

There is one study that shows an unmasked person infected 16 others on an airplane.

Ok - so the real life body of evidence is that this spreads to some extent in the air and also via virus on surfaces. Household transmission is the most infectious situation. This makes sense because air and surfaces are shared.

So how to we move forward? Well...this won't be popular....but these massive shut downs are going to generate as many "sick" as the virus itself. We had an economic melt down in the spring. Millions lost their jobs and they can become "sick": emotionally ill and physically ill as a result of losing their jobs.

A tiny fraction of the studies that show the effect of job loss on health:

Am J Public Health . 2014: Recessions, job loss, and mortality among older US adults

Am J Epidemiol . 2015 : Who suffers during recessions? Economic downturns, job loss, and cardiovascular disease in older Americans

Int J Epidemiol . 2014: Job loss, wealth and depression during the Great Recession in the USA and Europe


We have lost the battle. We can not stop COVID-19. It is like "trying to stop the wind". No amount of widespread lockdowns will stop it. China pretends they have stopped it with their lockdowns and contact tracing. More likely they are not testing. No tests = no cases. So don't use China as an example of how draconian measures stop this virus.

Nothing stops this virus.

What we need - and still do not have - are freely available personal protective equipment. We should ALL be able to receive FREE N95 masks. Not the crappy KN95. The real NIOSH approved N95. All of us. We should have been making a bazillion of these since February. Where are they? This is stopping society.

WIth abundent PPE and cleaning solutions we could live our lives as near normal. But no. We are stuck. Shame, shame, shame on all world leaders for not providing these products.

We are at a tragic turning point. Open up societies so our healthy workers can produce & deliver essentials like food and medicine OR continue to try to stop the unstoppable.

While we have lost the battle, let's not add insult to injury by losing the war.

UN World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley:

"He underscored the critical importance of balancing sensible measures to contain COVID-19, with others to keep borders open and trade flows moving. It is vital to guard against unintended consequences that can hit the poorest the hardest." link

US - NYC: The rest of Wall Street moves to Fla...aka...De Blasio: NYC should prepare for a full shutdown - December 14, 2020

 

[Sally Furniss]

Informative Twitter thread with several links:

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/statu...89100791848964

Dr Emma Hodcroft
Dec 14

As far as I know, the #SARSCoV2 variant identified by Hancock today is defined by a spike mutation at position 501 N->Y & a double-deletion at positions 69/70.
You can see it in orange in the dedicated Neher Lab S:N501 @nextstrain build below https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?c=gt-S_501,69&label=mlabel:20B/A23063T&p=grid…

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020

 

[Vibrant62]

Are similar communications going out in the US? Sorry for delay in Vitamin D thread to bring together all research - been snowed under.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18...essional-urge/

'Treat taking vitamin D like mask-wearing to save lives', say doctors

The letter argues: “Decades of safety data show that vitamin D has very low risk ... The risk of insufficient levels far outweighs any risk from levels that seem to provide most of the protection against Covid-19 ... Vitamin D’s safety is more like that of face masks. There is no need to wait for further clinical trials to increase use of something so safe.”

Their letter points out that rather than the 400 IU dose – which the UK Government is offering to people who are shielding – significantly higher doses are required of the vitamin, which they say is cheap.

The following specific recommendations are among the measures they want implemented:

- Recommend to adults vitamin D intake of 4000 IU daily

- Recommend that adults at increased risk of deficiency due to excess weight, dark skin, or living in care homes may need higher intakes (eg double the above dose).

- Recommend that adults not already receiving the above amounts get 10,000 IU daily for two to three weeks, followed by the daily amount.

The letter, published in The National today, says a dose of 3875 IU has been shown to bring almost 98% of people up to the required level in their bodies while raising it to 6200 IU would ensure people’s levels exceed the minimum guidelines.

Known as the sunshine vitamin, vitamin D is produced in the skin by exposing the body to 10-15 minutes of sun a day, however, many people in the northern hemisphere, especially in winter, suffer from a deficiency.

This deficiency can be treated by supplements and eating certain foods such as eggs, liver and oily fish – such as salmon or mackerel – as well as fortified foods such as cereals and dairy products.

Doctors and scientists believe it can prevent the most critical stage of Covid-19 when the patient’s immune system goes into overdrive and the body shutdowns.

“Rates [of deficiency] are even higher in winter, and several groups have notably worse deficiency: the overweight, those with dark skin ... and care home residents. These same groups face increased Covid-19 risk.” said the open letter.

“Evidence suggests the possibility that the Covid-19 pandemic sustains itself in large part through infection of those with low vitamin D, and that deaths are concentrated largely in those with deficiency ... Evidence indicates that increased vitamin D would help reduce infections, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths.”

 

[sharon sanders]

Are similar communications going out in the US? Sorry for delay in Vitamin D thread to bring together all research - been snowed under.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18...essional-urge/

'Treat taking vitamin D like mask-wearing to save lives', say doctors

No. We are not getting this message at all. We are getting vaccine promotion 24/7. All the main stream media and government agencies are pushing the vaccine.

 

[bertrand789]

Certainly the vaccines have arrived so we are talking about the Vit D and we reuse the HCQ , A new crisis management ?

The WHO will wake up, one day, maybe ...

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0239252

 

[Vibrant62]

It is going to take at least a year for everyone to get vaccinated IMHO (assuming no vaccine escapes, which will put the clock back - or other unforeseen problems), and so this looks to be a very sensible, cheap intervention that people can self purchase and take prophylactically. At worst it will do no harm based on the data. As a quick reference point, for those who have not see it here is a good overview of the major data studies so far from Medcram https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg - There are more, but this provides a good evidence overview of the largest studies

 

[bertrand789]

this sheet is up to date:

https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessional/

 

[bertrand789]

yet it is from :: Updated: October 9, 2020
104 / 5000
R?sultats de traduction
that for citizens: Updated: March 24, 2020

https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-Consumer/

 

[Mary Wilson]

Fast-spreading strain of mutated coronavirus is found in Wales and Scotland

Scientists warn the VUI – 202012/01 variant appears to be spreading faster than other forms and is appearing most in areas of the country where infection rates are rising quickest

15:46, 15 DEC 2020
UPDATED19:31, 15 DEC 2020
By Martin Bagot Health and Science editor

The new mutated form of coronavirus has now spread to Wales and Scotland.
Experts analysing the genetic code of the variant say it is believed to have originated in South East England and was not imported from abroad.

Scientists contributing to the Government surveillance programme warn the VUI – 202012/01 variant appears to be spreading faster than other forms.

... The network of experts said VUI – 202012/01 has caused concern because it is appearing most in areas of the country where infection rates are rising quickest.

They were also concerned because it displays 17 changes to the original virus - many more than previous variants detected by their surveillance.

... The Mirror reported today how one in ten Londoners who caught the novel coronavirus last month were infected with the new strain, according to an expert.

Dr Andrew Page, who is at the forefront of research work into Covid-19, has said the virus's new strain "came out of nowhere".

In the month since detection in October the mutated virus, which has been named VUI – 202012/01, has infected 19.2% of all new Covid-19 patients in Norfolk.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-super-contagious-mutated-covid-23172171

 

[Okieman]

I put the article below in the thread addressing the new Covid-19 variant VUI-202012/01 reported yesterday. Kent County appears to be the area most affected by this new variant. I have done some amount of research and looked at articles which came out over the past few weeks concerning Kent County. The increase in cases there appears to have been pretty dramatic over the past month and a half. One article I found described a ten fold increase in Covid fatalities for Kent County when comparing November to October, 2020. The real question in my mind is whether this increase in deaths, and more recently this apparent increase in teenagers being admitted to the hospital, is due primarily to a significantly more transmissible variant of the virus, and thus more cases overall. Or is this new variant more severe as well. It very well could be due to simply more people becoming infected and ill. But this other possibility really has me concerned. As it stands right now there is no way for us to know and we must wait for more information. Much appreciation to all the hard working scientists trying to figure this out.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major patient backlog at Medway Maritime Hospital, Gillingham

Emergency planners in Kent have met over concerns ambulances won't be able to get some patients into hospitals.

Increasing Covid numbers have seen casualty departments stretched to their limits.

<snip>
A Medway hospital worker, who asked to remain anonymous, said how at one point yesterday they counted 18 ambulances outside.

This meant an average of six-hour waits to get people in to be seen.

They also confirmed that Covid patients were now commonplace in every ward, including children's wards.

Also a "high number" of teenagers had been admitted with the illness.

<snip>

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/...pacity-239362/

 

[Mary Wilson]

Labeling confusion led to wasted doses of Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine in first days of rollout

By OLIVIA GOLDHILL
DECEMBER 16, 2020

With the Covid-19 vaccine in short supply, hospital pharmacists found themselves in the unexpected position of throwing away one in every six doses of the first Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines distributed this week in the United States.

The confusion came over labeling: The vaccine comes in vials labeled as containing enough for five doses. But pharmacists discovered that, after thawing and mixing the contents with a dilutent, each vial contained enough vaccine for six doses. Without explicit approval from the manufacturer, that final dose had to be discarded.

“It was overtly clear early on there’s some extra volume,” said Russell Findlay, pharmacy manager at University of Utah Health. His colleagues called Pfizer on Tuesday to ask if they could use the extra dose, said Findlay, but the company wouldn’t give a definitive answer.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/16...er-covid-19-vaccine-in-first-days-of-rollout/

 

[Mary Wilson]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1339370952795283461


FDA confirms it's acceptable to use every full dose obtainable when a vial of Pfizer's COVID vaccine contains more than the 5 expected doses, as long as it all comes from the same vial. This will help increase U.S. supply

6:44 PM ? Dec 16, 2020?TweetDeck

 

[Mary Wilson]

(So technically, the vaccine is unapproved, but authorized to be used. - my comment)

FACT SHEET FOR HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS ADMINISTERING VACCINE (VACCINATION PROVIDERS)

EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION (EUA) OF
THE PFIZER-BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE TO PREVENT CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19)

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to permit the emergency use of the unapproved product,Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, for active immunization to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 16 years of age and older.

https://www.fda.gov/media/144413/download

 

[Okieman]

This new Covid variant recently announced in the UK is apparently also in Denmark. I have to wonder whether it is also in Saxony, Germany. See these articles posted on FluTrackers the other day: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...es-with-particularly-high-incidence-of-corona

I have a hard time imagining doing such a severe lockdown when the pandemic is so advanced. Apparently they did something similar at the beginning of the pandemic, which is somewhat understandable. But now? Unless, they have identified this new variant there and are trying to contain it.

Let me be clear, I do not know this to be so. I have not read anything saying it is there. But the number of cases per 100,000 is very similar. In the range of 600 cases per 100,000 pop. And if it has spread to Denmark then it could also be in Saxony and other places in the world.

I am a firm believer during pandemics to not necessarily pay attention to what they say, but rather to what they do. There are hard decisions being made right now by governments all over the world. And probably the communication of risk is among some of the hardest decisions. This new variant is still very much an unknown. Maybe it is just another mutation out of many which does not change the pandemic equations much at all. But,...what if it does? I think this is an especially important time to pay close attention to what is being reported and what actions governments are taking. I wish all of them the best in their attempt to deal with this pandemic. I hope for success.

 

[Okieman]

I found the article I describe up above about cases per 100,000. I though that since I mentioned it I should post it to the Saxony, Germany thread.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Saxony is a hot spot of right wing populism. These politicians are campaining against corona measures. Could play a role?

A pandemic is about a virus and may be even more about people?

 

[kiwibird]

Perhaps Northern Ireland as well - as they are going into full lockdown for 6 weeks from the 28th December - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55349545

 

[sharon sanders]

"Hard" lockdowns planned/considered/implemented this week:

Netherlands in for a hard lockdown; Almost everything closed til January 19 - Coronavirus cases hit new record

Germany - Saxony State is considering sealing off communities with particularly high incidence of Corona - PM says: not for the next 2 weeks

"Germany will go into a "hard" national lockdown, starting next week and continuing through the Christmas period.." due to COVID-19 coronavirus - December 13, 2020

US - California: Los Angeles mayor tells residents to "cancel everything" as COVID-19 coronavirus hospitalizations climb - December 2, 2020

Northern Ireland going into full lockdown for six weeks from 26th December

Canada - As Ontario's COVID-19 cases keep rising, calls grow for tighter holiday lockdown

Canada - Quebec's new lockdown a harsh reminder the COVID-19 end game is still several moves away

Italy looking at lockdown as deaths move towards wartime levels

Poland to enter national quarantine starting Dec. 28 to fight COVID-19

CIDRAP - South Korea among several nations eyeing lockdowns

 

[sharon sanders]

I found the article I describe up above about cases per 100,000. I though that since I mentioned it I should post it to the Saxony, Germany thread.

Yes please! We encourage double posting. Some people want to check this thread for updates and others want to follow the separate thread topics. Thanks!

 

[bertrand789]

Sharon, I wish you work this:

I received this, this morning: https://oiebulletin.com/?p=16527

an important text, but above all you should read is this:
"hasard: Anything that can have harmful effects on health (viruses, bacteria, chemicals, floods, earthquakes, snakes, for example); can be considered a threat."

I find , it's a bad thing . Here is the proof:
within the framework of the covid file, it is established in x places that the expression of the disease, in humans is often due to a disrespect of the normal, therefore of the vitamin D level.
Failure to respect the knowledge is therefore a danger.
Now what do we know about respect for country by country, for man and for wild animals, like all the others?
The most spectacular example is the October 2020 file, not up to date, of American doctors:
https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessional/

The ONE HEALTH approach must first affirm that failure to respect the normal is a danger ...
https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...-like-mask-wearing-medical-professional-urge/