gsgs
Registered User
picture for USA : http://magictour.free.fr/us0903.GIF
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Discussion thread V - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)
- Thread starter mcphilbrick
- Start date
- Status
gsgs
Registered User
when the hospitalised patients and deaths are now younger, then it's obviously not because of a
change in testing.
It could be
because they now protect the elderly better, testing staff in care homes and othe measures
because the young people are now less protected (immunity from seasonal colds ?)
because "the students are taking over"
Unfortunately USA doesn't regularly give cases or deaths by agegroup, at least I haven't seen it.
So the best data for wave2 is currently Aragon, Catalonia (lockdown works), then Madrid with 2 weeks delay
then France,Netherlands,Belgium(lockdown works) .
UK,Germany,Italy,Austria,Switzerland,Denmark ... are watching their deaths to decide ...
change in testing.
It could be
because they now protect the elderly better, testing staff in care homes and othe measures
because the young people are now less protected (immunity from seasonal colds ?)
because "the students are taking over"
Unfortunately USA doesn't regularly give cases or deaths by agegroup, at least I haven't seen it.
So the best data for wave2 is currently Aragon, Catalonia (lockdown works), then Madrid with 2 weeks delay
then France,Netherlands,Belgium(lockdown works) .
UK,Germany,Italy,Austria,Switzerland,Denmark ... are watching their deaths to decide ...
gsgs
Registered User
Jose Gefaell's Sep.3 - update :
https://twitter.com/ChGefaell/status/1301971091859148807
https://twitter.com/ChGefaell/status/1301971091859148807
TWiV definitely takes time but I have probably learnt more about Corona viruses from Microbe.tv (TWiV, Immune, TWiEvo and TWiM) and Virology2020 than all other sources combined. If you only listen to one it should be episode 640 with Michael Mina which is a complete game changer and needs to be understood by everyone. MedCram did an excellent, and shorter, review of this episode with graphs and charts. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7Sv_pS8MgQ&feature=youtu.be This is 15 minutes in which you learn something very important.
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
gs - Demographic data for US fatal cases: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
From your data, it seems that Spain and France are supporting my hypothesis. They both had massive high mortality outbreaks in March/April with a total of only 20k and 7k tests per M each respectively! The month of August alone is reporting 31k for each country. That's a 3 fold increase for Spain and a 9 times multiplier for France. Both countries are now doing a much better job at detecting and confirming cases. 1,000 confirmed cases in August is representative of far fewer cases in the population than 1,000 confirmed cases in April. As a result, you would expect far fewer fatalities.
From your data, it seems that Spain and France are supporting my hypothesis. They both had massive high mortality outbreaks in March/April with a total of only 20k and 7k tests per M each respectively! The month of August alone is reporting 31k for each country. That's a 3 fold increase for Spain and a 9 times multiplier for France. Both countries are now doing a much better job at detecting and confirming cases. 1,000 confirmed cases in August is representative of far fewer cases in the population than 1,000 confirmed cases in April. As a result, you would expect far fewer fatalities.
I can not add graphics to my comment but this graph shows what Mina is trying to explain.
Only the tiny period in red is significant between RT PCR and antigen tests but the antigen test can be mass produced, cost a few % of the PCR, can be self administered at home and give a result in minutes not days (or weeks). The current test Ct values show that the bulk of the returned results fall in the yellow zone which is well past the point the patient is shedding enough infectious virus to be a danger to their contacts.
See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2MEF4XX8w which is Mina addressing clinicians so much the same case as TWiV 640 but formulated in a way suitable for MDs to digest and implement.
There is an important distinction between testing a patient with COVID symptoms to identify the causative pathogen, for which the maximum sensitivity of RT PCR is needed, and population testing for public health reasons where volume, speed and cost are key even if you are only catching those who are currently infectious and not those who have been in the past - which is the role of serology testing. Not shown in this graph but the IgG/IgM curve covers the yellow period quite effectively and will show positive anyway for patients 7 days+ post symptom onset.
We need PCR for clinical diagnosis, and should be reserved for that, and we need rapid cheap tests for everything else.
Only the tiny period in red is significant between RT PCR and antigen tests but the antigen test can be mass produced, cost a few % of the PCR, can be self administered at home and give a result in minutes not days (or weeks). The current test Ct values show that the bulk of the returned results fall in the yellow zone which is well past the point the patient is shedding enough infectious virus to be a danger to their contacts.
See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2MEF4XX8w which is Mina addressing clinicians so much the same case as TWiV 640 but formulated in a way suitable for MDs to digest and implement.
There is an important distinction between testing a patient with COVID symptoms to identify the causative pathogen, for which the maximum sensitivity of RT PCR is needed, and population testing for public health reasons where volume, speed and cost are key even if you are only catching those who are currently infectious and not those who have been in the past - which is the role of serology testing. Not shown in this graph but the IgG/IgM curve covers the yellow period quite effectively and will show positive anyway for patients 7 days+ post symptom onset.
We need PCR for clinical diagnosis, and should be reserved for that, and we need rapid cheap tests for everything else.
Last edited:
gsgs
Registered User
Ronan, here are deaths/positive-rate : http://magictour.free.fr/wo-28b.GIF
It's still down in France,Spain,Germany,Italy,UK
it could be because of the low incidence, though.
It's still down in France,Spain,Germany,Italy,UK
it could be because of the low incidence, though.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Hi Everyone!
I have an idea for a change to our format as we go into the 2020-2021 cold and flu season. I propose we stop updating country/province/state threads on September 30 as Wave One is over. What we are looking for now is how things will progress as we move into the future. Next is cold and flu season in the northern hemisphere.
For instance, I will bunch together all of the European countries under one main heading called - Europe: Wave 1 of COVID-19 Pandemic, January - September 2020. All of these threads are basically becoming an open archive while we focus on current outbreaks. The new sub-forum will read, for instance, Europe: Wave 2 of COVID-19 Pandemic, September - May 2021.
This way the focus will be on the countries that have new problems while the beginnings of the pandemic are still available so people can see how the situation developed. The new threads will start with the existing case and deaths counts and will be added to if the situations get out of control.
Sadly, the fact is that COVID-19 is now endemic to the world. It is not news when a case is diagnosed. Most sadly, deaths are not unusual. Therefore, we are going to switch to reporting by exception which is our normal method. This is..what is unusual? Out of the norm for that country/state/province?
If people want a daily case by case count there are numerous free services doing a fairly decent job. I like Johns Hopkins. Various moderators may choose to update some states/countries/provinces on a daily basis, but for the entire world - we will not be doing that.
I also want to thank everyone for participating. This year has been very tough. I know everyone is struggling to maintain some type of normal life.
I have an idea for a change to our format as we go into the 2020-2021 cold and flu season. I propose we stop updating country/province/state threads on September 30 as Wave One is over. What we are looking for now is how things will progress as we move into the future. Next is cold and flu season in the northern hemisphere.
For instance, I will bunch together all of the European countries under one main heading called - Europe: Wave 1 of COVID-19 Pandemic, January - September 2020. All of these threads are basically becoming an open archive while we focus on current outbreaks. The new sub-forum will read, for instance, Europe: Wave 2 of COVID-19 Pandemic, September - May 2021.
This way the focus will be on the countries that have new problems while the beginnings of the pandemic are still available so people can see how the situation developed. The new threads will start with the existing case and deaths counts and will be added to if the situations get out of control.
Sadly, the fact is that COVID-19 is now endemic to the world. It is not news when a case is diagnosed. Most sadly, deaths are not unusual. Therefore, we are going to switch to reporting by exception which is our normal method. This is..what is unusual? Out of the norm for that country/state/province?
If people want a daily case by case count there are numerous free services doing a fairly decent job. I like Johns Hopkins. Various moderators may choose to update some states/countries/provinces on a daily basis, but for the entire world - we will not be doing that.
I also want to thank everyone for participating. This year has been very tough. I know everyone is struggling to maintain some type of normal life.
I note that New Hampshire (I think) have instituted a 14 day quarantine for people coming from other US states that do not meet certain criteria, one of which is that their PCR tests are showing not more than 5% positive. In other words you can not meet their criteria if you are only testing hospitalised patients who have COVID symptoms and not the general population.
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
I'm not pushing HCQ, (I'm more the melatonin type), but it really is shameful how political this has gotten.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...andemic-crisis
It's not encouraging when someone like Dr. Risch can only get in depth interviews outside the corporate media.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...e-is-dangerous
Video interview with Risch:
https://youtu.be/D4-qHgwBrCs?t=235
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...andemic-crisis
It's not encouraging when someone like Dr. Risch can only get in depth interviews outside the corporate media.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...e-is-dangerous
Video interview with Risch:
https://youtu.be/D4-qHgwBrCs?t=235
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Don't mean to be contentious, but every time Risch & HCQ get brought up I will add:
A major error is found in the article : Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High_Risk Covid-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis, by Harvey Risch, which highlights how the work by Prof. Raoult should be read and considered.
https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa155/5873637
A major error is found in the article : Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High_Risk Covid-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis, by Harvey Risch, which highlights how the work by Prof. Raoult should be read and considered.
https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa155/5873637
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
We are not going to hide from controversy. This does no one any good. If people disagree on this site, great. Do it. Keep it civil and respectful.
Again. Personal bashing is not allowed on FluTrackers. This is a long standing policy since our beginning. If people can not contain themselves I ask you to step back for a couple of days before posting again. We are all under a lot of stress.
More important than anything we discuss here - we need to set an example of how to behave in the pandemic.
Always - kind and considerate.
Again. Personal bashing is not allowed on FluTrackers. This is a long standing policy since our beginning. If people can not contain themselves I ask you to step back for a couple of days before posting again. We are all under a lot of stress.
More important than anything we discuss here - we need to set an example of how to behave in the pandemic.
Always - kind and considerate.
"which is solidly grounded in ... substantial evidence" I am not sure what he is referring to as I have not seen anything substantial re HCQ. There were some ongoing proper clinical trials but they pulled the plug when the preliminary data showed side effects but no measurable benefit. There was some in vivo vero cell data that looked hopeful but did not pan out when used in human epithelial cells as it was reliant on a protease that that we did not produce.
As the link Ronan provides below shows his conclusions in that paper are flawed because he is comparing apples and oranges.
As the link Ronan provides below shows his conclusions in that paper are flawed because he is comparing apples and oranges.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
COVID-19: William Farr’s way out of the Pandemic
April 11, 2020
Carl Heneghan, Tom Jefferson
The death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.
William Farr (1807 – 1883)
...
Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred.
In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days.
...
Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on the assumption that the infection has already started falling in the same progressive steps.
...
In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognise the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to ‘density’ that require special considerations.
But most of all we must remember the message Farr left us: what goes up must come down.
...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/
April 11, 2020
Carl Heneghan, Tom Jefferson
The death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.
William Farr (1807 – 1883)
...
Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred.
In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days.
...
Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on the assumption that the infection has already started falling in the same progressive steps.
...
In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognise the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to ‘density’ that require special considerations.
But most of all we must remember the message Farr left us: what goes up must come down.
...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Are we in a disaster movie?
San Francisco area - Red Flag Warning Prompts Bay Area Residents to Prepare for Wildfire Power Shutoffs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7LzSUtpp84
NHC closely watching 4 areas of potential tropical development
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54odYuomiWE
Typhoon Haishen to approach S. Korea's east coast Monday morning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QueN2o0yZJY
Record Heat, Rolling Power Outages Sweep LA-Area
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f_E2hKFYuU
California's Creek Fire forces evacuations and burns thousands of acres
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvUCCCgHVKc
plus, plus, plus
San Francisco area - Red Flag Warning Prompts Bay Area Residents to Prepare for Wildfire Power Shutoffs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7LzSUtpp84
NHC closely watching 4 areas of potential tropical development
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54odYuomiWE
Typhoon Haishen to approach S. Korea's east coast Monday morning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QueN2o0yZJY
Record Heat, Rolling Power Outages Sweep LA-Area
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f_E2hKFYuU
California's Creek Fire forces evacuations and burns thousands of acres
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvUCCCgHVKc
plus, plus, plus
gsgs
Registered User
the positive-rate in France is currently only 5%, if was >20% in March,April
They increased testing >5fold since then
The elderly are better shielded
Children are also tested now
Does that fully explain the lack of deaths ? I'm not sure
http://magictour.free.fr/fr-pr1.GIF
French data by agegroup :
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...e-de-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...iques-covid-19
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...ie-de-covid-19
They increased testing >5fold since then
The elderly are better shielded
Children are also tested now
Does that fully explain the lack of deaths ? I'm not sure
http://magictour.free.fr/fr-pr1.GIF
French data by agegroup :
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...e-de-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...iques-covid-19
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...ie-de-covid-19
gsgs
Registered User
here a Twitter-thread by Richard Neher :
https://twitter.com/richardneher/sta...79444165320704
He thinks it's entirely explained by the COVID-shift towards younger people.
If that's the only thing, then you wonder how we managed to keep the
old people out of the wave !
It doesn't look as if they will still get it later.
https://twitter.com/richardneher/sta...79444165320704
He thinks it's entirely explained by the COVID-shift towards younger people.
If that's the only thing, then you wonder how we managed to keep the
old people out of the wave !
It doesn't look as if they will still get it later.
Farr's advice may have been sound 200 years ago - given the state of knowledge and technology at the time but is way off the mark today. The pandemic will end eventually but the wave pattern he is describing is based on immunity, the wave patterns we have seen is part of one long rolling wave that is shaped by our interventions, physical distancing etc., and has little to do with any previous pandemic curves, beyond local peaks and troughs.
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