Discussion thread V - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[sharon sanders]

"Il dit des choses évidentes que personne ne veut entendre."
?Les pharmas ont torpill? Didier Raoult et l'hydroxychloroquine?


https://www.illustre.ch/magazine/pha...YI2QSbmUIgDV4g

Covid-19: Didier Raoult targeted by a complaint before the medical order

The professor is accused by the Society of Infectious Pathology of having promoted a treatment whose effectiveness has not been proven. Eight other violations of the code of medical ethics are reported.

Le Monde with AFP Posted today at 11:12, updated at 13:01

https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/artic...box=1599126978

 

[bertrand789]

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supe...teresting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

il y a un fil de discussion, sur la vision actualis?e de la physiopathologie des ces "trucs" ?

 

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
2s
No pandemic plan ever anticipated mass total lock downs. In fact, they had business continuity plans included & methods to maintain supply chains for essentials items like food.

The idea was to maintain society as best as possible while protecting the vulnerable.

#coronavirus

 

[gsgs]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
2s
No pandemic plan ever anticipated mass total lock downs. In fact, they had business continuity plans included & methods to maintain supply chains for essentials items like food.

The idea was to maintain society as best as possible while protecting the vulnerable.

#coronavirus

China must have planned it. So rapid and decisive and massive and well coordinated was the response after Jan.20.
The whole world was surprisd

 

[gsgs]

https://elifesciences.org/articles/59177
Jul07 , no citation yet

 

[gsgs]

we have a striking lack of deaths now in wave2 in those Countries with high mortality in wave1
such as France,Spain. We saw it earlier in USA although maybe not so clear.
{South USA is also maybe a bit like Mexico,, where it is bad.}
The reasons are not being discussed, it's rarely noted, but quite importantant IMO.

Vitamin D deficiency is one hypothesis. It's higher in South Europe than in North-Europe,
despite Latitude/sunlight.

There were also the differences in CFR in wave1
W-Europe - E-Europe
S-America - Asia,Africa
{not explaines by vit.D {?})

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X(19)30492-9

http://magictour.free.fr/e-0903.GIF

 

[gsgs]

Drosten in TWiV659 at 57:40 thinks the CFR is down because of students are taking over, and the older are staying home

[I think that only explains a small part of it, it's seen in many countries)

 

[Emily]

Cover-up at Kitsap County WA health care system. Workers could not confirm or deny that Covid patients were roomed with non-Covid patients. Said that they could get a violation. Workers found out that there was an outbreak from relatives who saw it on the news. Up to 65 now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNNyOaehbPs

 

[Emily]

They did take things seriously.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-weapon-expert-secretive-virus-lab-Wuhan.html

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Do we really have a lack of deaths for wave 2? I don't think so. Deaths per million cases in the US is in the same ballpark once we got past early June. Isn't it much more likely that we missed 80% of the milder cases early on when only the old, hospitalized patients were being tested? Daily testing in the US has expanded 8 fold since April.
Experienced doctors may have more successful outcomes than in the spring, with new therapies and such, but there doesn't seem to be any significant improvement from June-August.

USA Milestones -
April 28: 1,011,600 cases with 58,064 deaths
Difference:44 days +1,007,275 cases +56,113 deaths
June 11: 2,018,875 cases with 114,177 deaths
Difference: 27 days +1,021,222 cases +18,541 deaths
July 8: 3,040,097 cases with 132,718 deaths
Difference: 15 days +988,644 cases +12,090 deaths
July 23: 4,028,741 cases with 144,808 deaths
Difference: 17 days +1,012,163 cases +18,064 deaths
August 9: 5,040,904 cases with 162,872 deaths
Difference: 22 days +985,584 cases +21,208 deaths
August 31: 6,026,488 cases with 184,080 deaths

 

[JJackson]

Ronan another possible explanation for the lower CFR post June is the patient age distribution. Hospitalised patient's mean age has fallen by a decade or so, which makes a big difference in expected CFRs.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Hi Ronan,

when I look at this study for instance: Use of all cause mortality to quantify the consequences of covid-19 in Nembro, Lombardy: descriptive study , it says:


"....the results suggest that the full implications of the covid-19 pandemic can only be completely understood if, in addition to confirmed deaths related to covid-19, consideration is also given to all cause mortality in a given region and time frame"


I have some trouble to find stats of "all cause mortality" in the US. I found this graph below. (source)

The red line below shows the percent of deaths due to Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19. A normal death rate for these symptoms seasonally varies from about 6 to 8 percent, according to the CDC graph below.

During the 2018-2019 flu season, the 2018 portion of this CDC graph shows a peak of 11% death rate. As of August 20, 2020, the pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 death rate peaked in late April and early May at about 28%.

The graph below shows data through the week ending August 15. 2020 mortality rate (%) has decreased to BELOW some 2018 levels. The red line also shows a rapid weekly decline in death rate since about July 20, 2020.


So my take is: Deathrate still high, but things are heading in the right direction? Still : this graph does not show all cause mortality .

 

[gsgs]

yes, I was confused again.
I had even posted about it, but then I forgot it while concentrating on the European numbers.
It looks different in France, Spain - they had a severe 1st wave and now the deaths
are much lower (so far). The testing did not increase so much as in USA.
You could say the deathrate is "normal" now, as it was lower in most other countries
already in wave1 . Except Latin-America.

Those US-States with a severe 2nd summer-wave had a mild spring-wave

The mean age is lower, but why ? Hard to believe for me that just "the students took over"
The chance to die, once hospitalized, has not improved so much.

Spain weekly update :
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Se... COVID-19. Nº 42_03 de septiembre de 2020.pdf

twitter-thread by Jose Gefaell :
https://twitter.com/ChGefaell/status/1299441339344531458

 

[gsgs]

NCHS gives now all-cause mortality by week and US-State, with some weeks delay
in nice computer-readable-form :
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/r8kw-7aab/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

 

[Ronan Kelly]

But JJackson testing was very skewed towards older folk in the US at the beginning of this outbreak. I would argue that the change in median age of positive patients is in large part due to a testing regime artifact. It's not that a greater proportion of young are being infected now, we are just more likely to detect them. I'm not saying that it is the only factor. What I'm suggesting is that the first 3 million cases in the US represented an actual burden of maybe 20 million cases with the majority of milder undetected cases in younger folk. The most recent 3 million cases may be representative of 5-10 million actual cases due to the large increase in testing. So while the second wave of confirmed cases seemed to indicate a much greater number of cases than in the first wave, I feel that in reality, the total number of infected in "wave 2" may only have been a third of the number infected during "wave 1" and that is why the fatality curve appears to be much smaller than expected.
I worry about this because a winter wave could, under this scenario, completely dwarf anything that has come before and lead to an enormous fatality burden. Indeed IHME has Projected another 225k deaths in the US by Jan 1, 2021.

Gert - I have a thread on excess deaths in the US - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...onfirmed-covid-19-fatalities/page2#post890206. I agree that we have less fatalities per day now than in the Spring, but I believe that it is because we are having less actual infections per day than we were having in the spring. This may be due to lockdowns, distancing & masking or an element of seasonality of the virus. If this virus becomes more active this winter and is now more widespread than it was in the Spring, I fear that we will have to rescale all of our charts.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

. "If this virus becomes more active this winter and is now more widespread than it was in the Spring, I fear that we will have to rescale all of our charts."

That is what we don't know; part of me is optimistic: if the virus is widespread, there could be more herdimmunity? Meanwhile one has to do what is possible regarding prevention.

 

[JJackson]

Ronan - I think your point regarding a more inclusive testing regime is likely to be an important factor. I have been listening to the Sunday TWiV podcasts with a half hour report, by Dr. Daniel Griffin, on the current research and their ICUs had seen a marked change in the average age of their patients. The first wave was mainly the elderly, but now much younger, and he noted that the contact tracing information now had 'probably contracted at a bar or party' which they were not seeing before. He is head of infectious disease and a research scientist for the biggest organisation of MDs in the tri-state area so is very conversant with the research. It has been a fascinating journey learning week by week - as he did - what they were seeing as symptoms, what they tried and which worked and which made matters worse. They now are getting much better outputs as they have refined timings and doses of the tools they have. So that too is probably a factor.
The winter is going to be interesting. I have watched what effect the change of season on Australia and NZ, who had things well contained over their summer, would bring. Australia and NZ had more cases but from a very low level and Victoria accounted for most of them. I note Sally posted that NZ's flu season was down 90% a fair chunk of which I assume was due to changes in social behaviour in avoiding SARS. It does not seem that this respiratory pathogen is as seasonal as flu but should be expected to be more transmissible in cooler low UV conditions. This would increase the R[SUB]t[/SUB]. The question is by how much? Pandemic flus have shown that a totally susceptible population outweighs its seasonality but it will take full advantage of the winter conditions to inflict its main wave. If there is a flu like seasonality I would expect COVID season to start earlier this year, as flu has to build from its very low summer levels, but SARS is already much more abundant in the population.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

gs - do you have testing data for France & Spain comparing how it has changed over time?

JJackson - I have not listened to TWiV in a long time - just not enough hours in the day! Thanks for that info.

 

[gsgs]

increase today in Spain : 184 deaths, (40 the last days)

 

[gsgs]

worldometer gives daily estimates of tests per M. population for 215 Countries
I'm making weekly time-series from this
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

          0830,  0823,  0815,  0809,  0531,  0419,0412,0405,0326
Spain--,182161,170146,159805,151087, 76071, 19896,7593,7593,
France-, 96841, 91891, 91895, 65548, 21217,  7103,5114,3436,
Germany,133702,121653,110541,102450, 47193, 20629,15730,10962,
UK-----,239504,223397,213503,270146, 59592,  6783,4934,2698,
USA----,246978,229889,214220,197539, 52203, 11245,8068,4933,