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Discussion thread V - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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Sally, not just NZ.
I meant we should have tried to stop it from emerging world-wide with measures as in China or Korea or Australia,NZ

There were just a few places in Feb. , France,Italy,Iran,Washington.
We didn't take it serious. China could stop it in all provinces but Italy couldn't
stop it in a small area. And surveillance only detected it late.
And we should have stopped or registered+quarantined all flights, all travel from Wuhan,
just as China did, but internationally.
We need an international coordination+organisation for that.

It really should have been possible to stop it with <$100B outside China

This may easily happen again. Now we know that some pandemics can be stopped.
 
There has been a question about school reopening. We have the same response as our vaccines policy:

Consult your medical practitioner.

Do not take medical advice from the internet.

#coronavirus
 
kiwibird said:
https://twitter.com/shesinscrubs/sta...50366744989696

Twitter link with Registered Nurse comments
Click to expand...

It sounds like things were also worse in New York's hospitals than our mainstream press reported.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...c33cfaa9c9d1dc

I think most states will determine where you get care once you test positive. I saw the story of a Kentucky couple who got tested just to be cautious prior to going to visit their parents and possibly grandparents out of state. They were asymptomatic positive and the state wanted them to sign a promissory document stating that they agreed to contact the state prior to going to an ER or hospital should they get sick so the state could determine where they would go.
That was the only objection they had to the conditions in the document, but now they have ankle monitors on them and can't move more than 200 ft from their home.

https://www.4029tv.com/article/coupl...id-19/33357364


ETA: Some other hospitals in TX appear to be doing really well.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...main-low-in-the-us-despite-surge-in-new-cases

I wonder if the US media is reporting that?
 
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The following relates to a very important insight into testing.
I strongly recommend listening to TWIV 640 https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/

It relates to low cost (they said 1$ but it would probably be a bit higher), 15 min PCR self testing and why, the fact that they have low sensitivity compared to current PCR, is largely irrelevant and greatly out weighed by the ability get instant results.

I think this is potentially as important, in controlling the pandemic, as anything short of a widely available effective vaccine and is probably both more achievable and quicker.
 
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Florida update : http://magictour.free.fr/fl0721.GIF
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JJacksons , listening is tedious ... you gave the summary.
How likely will we get it and when ?
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people should also report their test-results, symptoms, onset,
supposed infection source, measures
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gs - Unknown, as this depends on US public pressure to get it moving.
It is essentially a spit test on a paper strip i.e. a cut down version of a lateral flow test.
When launched it got sidelined as it gives 50% sensitivity compared to traditional PCR but the logic is based on the way viral load peaks around symptom onset. PCR is run until about 35+ thermal cycles before a negative result is reached but this is 3 or 4 orders of magnitude greater than the viral load at which you are likely to be infectious. This type of test should pick up most, if not all, people capable of spreading the virus and can be mailed to HCWs, essential workers, students and staff etc. for use every few days which is enough to drastically reduce spread. In short gold standard PCR is overkill and a far cheaper and faster test is actually a better solution for contact tracing and slowing spread than a highly sensitive resource constrained test with a 1 or 2 week wait for results - by which time you have probably done all your spreading..
 
jj - apparently I asked the wrong question. II should have asked : what does it cost to warp-speed it ? (or such)
 
Opinion : Why China’s extreme #coronavirus controls are unlikely to work elsewhere -
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...xtreme-coronavirus-controls-are-unlikely-work

It is doing this using extreme surveillance measures to identify and quarantine every single new case.
Big data

vast network of community social control units
– a grid-based neighbourhood monitoring and management system that exists across China.

Real-name registration for telephone numbers and public transport such as trains,

as well as a large number of surveillance cameras,

In the first nine days after the Beijing outbreak began, 2 million people had been tested.

pool testing t
five people, with their samples grouped together.

at the cost of privacy and freedom of movement, and it is not practical outside mainland China.

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I do not agree with that.
Also it concentrates on the Beijing outbreak, not the remarkable nCoV-deletion which China did
from Jan20 to Mar10 .
We could do that tracing, it just needs personal and preparation and some measures to ensure that the data
is not used for other purposes (where that is an issue at all).
In a more severe outbreak you may even give up on data-safety, set the priorities.
As in war.
There are also ways to achieve the same things with other methods, but maybe more expensive.
It all depends on how much energy and money you throw at it.

And - in democracies - how popular that is. The population does not understand preparation
and strikt measures are only popular once the need is obvious.
So we failed to contain Italy and Irak after Feb.21 and to do better surveillance after Wuhan happened.
Because we didn't take it serious, because strict measures were unpopular at that time.
Because the public did not understand the threat.
Because the science thought, that pandemics can't be stopped and travel restrictions were useless.
 
What are you not agreeing with? That it can not be replicated in the West?
Re WARP speed - there is no problem it just needs to be added to the priority list, and FDA approval, it already exists it just needs scaling up which is not difficult if funded.
 
re:JJackson,
yes, that it can be replicated. Maybe modified (more expensive)
The cheap test - if it were so easy, they would already be doing it , no ?

{I don't know how to add replies to posts)
 
There should be a line of response options in the lower right corner of posts that includes the "Comment" option. Just click on that word and it should work for you.
 
Please forget about all-encompassing CCP style public health measures being imposed in the US or hopefully any other countries.
https://www.onegreenplanet.org/anim...osing-pets-footage-of-corpses-lining-streets/

Why keep promoting CCP measures when other Asian countries did so well like Taiwan, South Korea, etc, without mass pet deaths or disabled humans being left to die when the rest of the family was taken to enforced quarantine centers?
The Chinese communities in the US used the positive control measures used in China without the inhumane measures and did very well:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/san-francisco-coronavirus-chinese-hospital.html
 
It is universally enabled. If anyone is having trouble please let me know. gsgs - click on the word "comment" on the bottom right on your post.
 
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