Discussion thread V - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[flatlander]

Thank you everyone for your responses. Still listening to TWIV and it is Interesting to hear the changes throughout this process as they learn new information.

Seems it is still unknown at this point the long term effects. Makes sense if you think about it, we are still very new into this virus. Really hope long term effects are minimal to none.

 

[Pathfinder]

Are protests unsafe? What experts say may depend on who’s protesting what

By MICHAEL POWELL
THE NEW YORK TIMES |
JUL 06, 2020 AT 12:02 PM
...
Nicholas A. Christakis, professor of social and natural science at Yale University, noted public health is guided by twin imperatives: To comfort the afflicted and to speak truth about risks to public health, no matter how unpleasant.

These often-complementary values are now in conflict. To take to the street to protest injustice is to risk casting open doors and letting the virus endanger tens of thousands, he said. There is a danger, he said, in asserting that one moral imperative overshadows another.
...
When he was a hospice doctor in Chicago and Boston, he said, he saw up close how isolation deepened the despair of the dying — a fate now suffered by many in the pandemic, with hospital visits severely restricted. For epidemiologists to turn around and argue for loosening the ground rules for the George Floyd marches risks sounding hypocritical.

“We allowed thousands of people to die alone,” he said. “We buried people by Zoom. Now all of a sudden we are saying, never mind?”
...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200706-5mzu4iqm3nhgnghbmtizuezj24-story.html

 

[kiwibird]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/120518...s-south-korea/

The strain mutated from the early clade of Covid-19, thought to have originated in Wuhan, which raged across Asia in the early days of the pandemic, according to Arirang News.

Out of the seven strains of the virus, the G strain is said to be three to six times more capable of infecting human cells, according to the scientific journal Cell.

Analysis of 526 genetics samples diagnosed with Covid-19 showed 313 which contained the GH strain.

The GH strain has largely been circulated across Europe and the US, with the South Korean government claiming that the virus was brought in "by foreign visitors" who entered the country between March and April.

GH is now the dominant strain in South Korea, Europe, North America and South America, Chosun Ilbo reports.

...snip

 

[JJackson]

Nothing to see here. This S D614G claim has been popping up in the press from time to time and with the Cell paper has gained a new lease of life. D614G is an ancestral mutation , having occurred right at the outset of the outbreak, with the D and G forms both continuing to circulate without one outperforming the other. One of the G strain happened to be first to arrive in Europe where it spread rapidly and then went on to start the US East coast outbreak. The West Coast was independently seeded by the D strain and, as in China, they co-circulate with neither demonstrating a fitness advantage.
Yes the cell paper shows, in-vitro, better infection but this can not be extrapolated to an meaningful statement about how it behaves in a human.
Yes there are more G sequences in the database but this says a great deal about the number of whole genome sequences being generated in Europe and the US and which countries are exporting cases to new areas and nothing about which strains are best adapted to infect humans or cause severe disease.

 

[Emily]

Thanks for the heads up. The whole letter is available:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...ustice-occurring-during-the-covid-19-pandemic

 

[Emily]

A Seattle area doctor said Roche's kit for testing antibodies will cost him only $1.00 per test. If you are being charged more than that, it is overhead and profit.
Doesn't sound like some of the tests are very accurate.

https://www.univadis.co.uk/viewarti...rent-serological-tests-not-good-enough-724407
Current evidence does not support continued use of existing point-of-care serological tests for COVID-19, concludes a new systematic review and meta-analysis in the BMJ.

 

[JJackson]

I would add this is not a straightforward respiratory infection, the sequelae are legion. One third of hospitalised patients had clots (admittedly one study), Kawasaki like syndrome is a children's problem but in fairly small numbers, neurological disorders and plenty of patients who do not recover, or recover fully, months after infection. And this is only its opening gambit we have no idea what the long term outlook is as there are no aged cases. Singing not only expels more air but after a holding a long note needs a deep breath which draws a lot more air into the deep lung bypassing the URT IgA.

 

[Pathfinder]

CDC director: Keeping kids out of classroom could be worse than sending them back

Author: Chloe Leshner (WCNC)
Published: 5:56 AM CDT July 14, 2020
Updated: 6:56 AM CDT July 14, 2020

CHARLOTTE, N.C. —
...
"Seven million children in this nation get their mental health assistance in school. Many students get their breakfast and lunch in school," Redfield said while standing alongside Mecklenburg County officials Tuesday. "Schools are really important for mandatory reporting of child abuse or sexual abuse. Obviously, the socialization that occurs in schools."

He said the virus has caused few deaths in kids and protecting teachers who may be vulnerable will be key in reopening schools.
...
Dr. Redfield also said if everyone wore a mask for the next 6 weeks, the country could “drive this pandemic into the ground.”

https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/...fall/275-d708f8aa-57ec-42c6-b02e-ab716bc1cf20

 

[Okieman]

Back when the FluWiki was active in pandemic planning and case tracking of H5N1 Bird Flu one of the things which was discussed was the fact that a severe pandemic was a "Wicked Problem". Here is a Wikipedia link which explains what a Wicked Problem is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem Here are a couple of quotes:

In planning and policy, a wicked problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. It refers to an idea or problem that cannot be fixed, where there is no single solution to the problem; and "wicked" denotes resistance to resolution, rather than evil.[SUP][1][/SUP] Another definition is "a problem whose social complexity means that it has no determinable stopping point".[SUP][2][/SUP] Moreover, because of complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other problems.

Classic examples of wicked problems include economic, environmental, and political issues. A problem whose solution requires a great number of people to change their mindsets and behavior is likely to be a wicked problem. Therefore, many standard examples of wicked problems come from the areas of public planning and policy. These include global climate change,[SUP][7][/SUP]natural hazards, healthcare, the AIDS epidemic, pandemic influenza, international drug trafficking, nuclear weapons, waste and social injustice.

If you have not had the opportunity to read about wicked problems I suggest taking a little bit of time doing so. There is an awful lot of stress right now the world over because solutions are a bit hard to come by concerning how to deal with the problems this pandemic poses. Having some understanding of the nature of wicked problems has helped me come to terms with some of what I am witnessing as I read about the pandemic and experience it's effects locally. I suspect most of the long time volunteers and readers here at FluTrackers are probably familiar with this, but more recent readers may not. These are tough times for a lot of people all over the world. Understanding the nature of wicked problems such as the present pandemic may help some come to terms with what is happening. For some problems there simply are not good answers....just difficult choices. During this pandemic this appears to be true on a personal level, local and state level, and national/international level. For me, understanding this provides some small amount of peace in the storm.

 

[sharon sanders]

Thanks Okieman for some FluWiki wisdom.

 

[Mary Wilson]

Thanks Okieman, I will research this topic, 'wicked problem'. But I feel even through we are all part society, we each have to make individual choices based on the information before us.
For example: my grandkids will not be returning to their elementary in-person public schools, my daughter will not be teaching in-person at her university. These decisions were approved by their schools after they received written excuses from their medical providers.
We can make choices, we do not have to wait around for someone else to make our choices. We have options.

 

[bertrand789]

Vous n'avez pas parl? des prises de d?cision au niveau entreprise. Je vais donc poser la question directement:

- comment et quand, vu la somme du su, ouvrir un parc d'attraction, notamment, destin? aux enfants ?

Cette d?cision, visiblement, suscite des d?bats aux Etats Unis. Je souhaiterai votre regard sur ce point particulier, car, de mon point de vue, devoir porter un masque, dans un tel lieu, supprime, chez moi , l'envie de m'y rendre. Visiblement, cette vision n'est pas la vision de tous:

https://news.google.com/stories/CAA...WlRoXzduUWJWZEJLQUFQAQ?hl=fr&gl=FR&ceid=FR:fr

https://news.google.com/stories/CAA...WUdzT0ZPaGs1RlBLQUFQAQ?hl=fr&gl=FR&ceid=FR:fr

La question peut aussi ?tre vu en fonction du lieu vu la r?partition des unit?s dans le monde:
https://lemondededisney.com/liste-des-parcs-disney-dans-le-monde/

Ce qui m'importe, n'est pas le point de vue de l'entreprise, mais la fa?on dont les clients construisent leur d?cision d'y aller ou pas dans ce contexte ?

C'est un exemple partiel, car vu les lieux de r?partition, cela ne couvre pas tous les possibles mod?les de gestion de crise, mais cela est un indicateur.

 

[gsgs]

wicked=evil,bad (difficult?)

 

[gsgs]

has someone seen an analysis or discussion, whether we could have stopped it in Feb/Mar as China did ?
Would would it have costed ? Of course, China should have stopped it from leaving China, but even after
we had Italy and Iran, I think it should have been possible to stop it with drastic measures which
at that time noone was willing to do.
WHO should start an investigation ... we need to know ...

 

[sharon sanders]

Hospitalization rate in Florida doubled today.

 

[Sally Furniss]

I can't comment on the rest of the world but NZ govt spent NZ$30b to rid the country of covid. An additional NZ$20b is available during the next 12 months if needed

Also this might be useful https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/dashboard/covid-19-economic-dashboard-10-july-2020

 

[gsgs]

US-State-data : https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv

the positivity-rate in Florida seems to be going down now : http://magictour.free.fr/fl0716.GIF

000,000,000,000,000,000,000
000,000,000,000,000,000,000
000,000,000,000,000,000,158
027,032,042,057,090,050,070
068,058,171,126,174,164,175
110,110,317,063,206,219,174
111,061,227,284,116,205,177
088,080,225,234,224,195,157
110,056,055,358,171,000,150
299,085,217,230,214,167,168
079,054,196,181,158,000,400
085,075,191,190,266,172,195
071,043,059,159,157,187,132
078,041,184,118,127,143,097
052,067,178,161,229,136,169
069,074,191,184,189,200,165
098,082,207,251,203,213,151
108,111,228,246,329,341,245
161,151,381,335,411,437,425
249,227,384,458,495

Florida , daily new hospitalisations
Mar01-Jul16

 

[sharon sanders]

Rant alert -

I am so disappointed about the situation in Florida. For instance, gsgs made an analysis that the positivity rate is going down. Well...who knows? There is no logical method for testing. It is all over the place. Apparently you can pay for the test or you can get it free. It seems the free test results are back sooner but you spend 4+ hours in your hot Florida summer car waiting in line. Some people get multiple tests. There is no organization to any of this.

Schools are delayed starting fall semester for two weeks but it is completely unclear what happens when schools open. Some online and some in-person instruction apparently.

Don't even start me on the state numbers. Talk about fuzzy math. They are apparently counting only "resident" hospitalizations.

So my reaction to all of this is to stay in my house. That is the confidence that I have in the system.

Who am I kidding? What system? Where are the zillions of masks? Not the surgical ones....the N95 masks like the public in South Korea wear. Anyone who wants an N95 should be able to get one. Health care professionals, teachers, EMTs....anyone....We could have built mask factories with the PPP money we gave to hedge funds.

We blew it and now we are going to pay for that.

And don't wait for a vaccine. I don't believe one thing I see about a vaccine. I have seen so much hype over the years that I will only believe it when I can get a safe and effective shot at my local pharmacy. Do we have any human vaccines for any other coronaviruses? That answer would be "no".

To all of you people who are using this pandemic to take advantage of a bad situation - there is a special place in **** for you. What you are doing behind the scenes will be exposed.

Again - always use at least two sources for information and use your common sense.

 

[gsgs]

as with the Chinese numbers in Feb. ... you should still see the trend, detect the peak from these numbers,
unless the method changes. These local inconsistencies should average out on the State-level.

And Florida for example gives detailed numbers for multiple categories to be added, see below)


-----------------------------------------
masks should be available, e.g. at ebay, although maybe more expensive.
And we now know, how to disinfect and re-use them.
Well, I just avoid touching my nose+eyes after remobing the mask and reuse the mask,
(always only worn for ~10-30min)

 

[gsgs]

20200716,FL,315775,2499843,2163,9112,20154,,,,,,A,7/14/2020 23:59,2020-07-14T23:59:00Z,07/14 19:59,4782,20154,2020-07-14T23:59:00Z,3509789,393209,3106801,315775,4782,,12,13965,65700,2817781,2815618,79665,2815618,156,495,79ffb0d18831ff1c58439f630edb31a767c0c9ee,0,0,0,0,0,

00,date,
01,state,
02,positive,
03,negative,
04,pending,
05,hospitalizedCurrently,
06,hospitalizedCumulative,
07,inIcuCurrently,
08,inIcuCumulative,
09,onVentilatorCurrently,
10,onVentilatorCumulative,
11,recovered,
12,dataQualityGrade,
13,lastUpdateEt,
14,dateModified,
15,checkTimeEt,
16,death,
17,hospitalized,
18,dateChecked,
19,totalTestsViral,
20,positiveTestsViral,
21,negativeTestsViral,
22,positiveCasesViral,
23,deathConfirmed,
24,deathProbable,



25,fips,
26,positiveIncrease,
27,negativeIncrease,
28,total,
29,totalTestResults,
30,totalTestResultsIncrease,
31,posNeg,
32,deathIncrease,
33,hospitalizedIncrease,



34,hash,
35,commercialScore,
36,negativeRegularScore,
37,negativeScore,
38,positiveScore,
39,score,
40,grade