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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

Gsgs, I'm not anti-China, but I think it is time to change gears. An effective anti-viral will save lives. The vulnerable should be assisted. Most people with serious immune issues already take care to avoid infections at this time of year. The quarantine of everyone in China has done more harm than good. I'm not criticizing the initial choice, but now it is time to move on, IMO.
 
They may be getting infected again. That wouldn't be unusual for a novel virus. I think it takes several exposures to get some immunity.
 
Latest presumptive positive in Oregon began to experience symptoms on Feb19. Did not get tested until Feb 28. Contact tracing, if it's attempted at all, would be a nightmare.
 
I hope the people doing tracing aren't worked so hard that they get run down. There may be no practial value to contact tracing anymore.
 
The following will be helpful given the global short supply now of alcohol hand sanitizers. Note alcohol based sanitizer (65%+) will destroy sars-cov2 within about one minute. Chlorhexidine and some other sanitizers are not effective against Coronovirus. Guide for how to make your own ALC Hol hand sanitizer with moisturizer to prevent dehydration of the skin.

https://www.wikihow.com/Make-Gel-Alcohol-Hand-Sanitizer
 
gsgs said:
Agenda Free TV said :
> Might be time to just say, it's spreading around the world, whoever's gonna get
> it will get it, and let's deal with that

no !!! that's the Trump/USA/Germany etc. agenda ;
anti China, anti WHO ,
WHO recommends the drastic Chinese measures to stop it.

hopefully there will be some papers, some modelings soon.
Those who survive will make the statistics what method was better in the end.
Both for economy and #of lives, diseases.

These successful Chinese measures had been absent from all the
previous modelings, AFAIK. We _urgently_ need the updates
--------------------------------------------
Click to expand...
Could not agree more and, as an explanation of why would be too long for this thread, I have posted one here.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...reliminary-thoughts-jjackson-personal-opinion
 
Everyone seems torn between two explanations for the decline in case counts in China: either the numbers are wrong (and China is missing cases) or the numbers are right, and the quarantines are working. I'd like to propose a third possibility: Cases are declining in China due to herd immunity; the virus has already infected a significant proportion of the population.

Wuhan has 11 million people. Hebei has 60 million total. There were estimates a month ago that up to one million people might have already been infected. It's been two incubation periods since then. At R0 = 4, that would make for 4 million cases in the next generation, and 16 in the one after that. Ignoring logistic effects (running out of people to infect), that would be 21 million cases, and attack rate of 35%. That's pretty much the point where pandemic flu begins to burn itself out because the chance to find new victims drops.

The Diamond Princess has a confirmed attack rate of over 20% by now. Perhaps large parts of China do as well.
 
Emily - Contact tracing will save lives. It is way too early to give up. The people doing it are exhausted. This is a life/death emergency. Their work is heroic.

Alert - I wish you were right. Take a look at the data in the WHO team report on China. The prevalence of the disease in the general population is not as high as they hoped it would be - is in fact low outside Hubei.
Guandong province is an example. Chains of transmission are also very clearly related to close contact and clusters. If we can contact trace, quarantine and isolate these clusters, we can decrease the impact significantly.
 
curiosity said:
Emily - Contact tracing will save lives. It is way too early to give up. The people doing it are exhausted. This is a life/death emergency. Their work is heroic.

Alert - I wish you were right. Take a look at the data in the WHO team report on China. The prevalence of the disease in the general population is not as high as they hoped it would be - is in fact low outside Hubei.
Guandong province is an example. Chains of transmission are also very clearly related to close contact and clusters. If we can contact trace, quarantine and isolate these clusters, we can decrease the impact significantly.
Click to expand...

I was only referring to Hubei. Yes, Guangdong and by extension the rest of China, seem to have avoided the kind of community spread Hubei had, at least so far. But more than half the total cases in China came from Hubei, so if Hubei has run out of people to infect, that means the overall daily numbers would come down.

It remains to be seen if the rest of China is going to have another peak later, as Italy and Iran seem to be having now.
 
I think your third choice is playing a role. This would not be the first time natural herd immunity has benefited the human race as a whole. Containment is a great tool for slow moving pathogens like TB, but I'm not sure if it was effective with this one. I can understand trying to avoid health system overload. We'll see how we do here on the west coast.
 
I agree with Curiosity the WHO team data points to a much lower than expected number of mild/sub clinical cases implying most of the hoped for 'iceberg' is not below the water. Two serological tests have been approved and are about to start which should give a much better picture of what has been going on under the radar. Unfortunately the results may still be a while as they will need to run the first batch on known recovered patients to establish a base line for antibody development over time and to adjust/calibrate the sensitivity prior to full deployment through a cross section of society in each area. All data coming out of China, including Wuhan, shows a very steep decline in new cases and current data show S Korea is reporting more daily cases than Hubei and has a smaller population. The R0 varies enormously depending on where you look, cruise ship or Korean church being great spreading territory but in a locked down Wuhan it is below 1 and consequently the 2000+ new cases/day in late Jan. are now a few hundred which is where we were in early Jan. The lock down is working but the cost has been fearful. All the available evidence (that we have now) says Wuhan's recovery is not due to herd immunity unless most people just can't catch it in the first place which is not impossible just very unlikely.
 
So can the body’s response to the COVID-19 disease be called a ? severe acute respiratory syndrome ? ?

yes I know that the viral strains are different. It is from the body’s point of view I wonder if there is any difference
 
Alert, Hebei or Hubei ? Hubei was also quarantined , first it went down in China ex Hubei then in Hubei ex Wuhan then in Wuhan.
It was mostly in Wuhan. At the peak there were as many cases in Hubei ex Wuhan as in Wuhan, but presumably much more
underreporting in Wuhan. By Feb20 they had twice as many new cases in Wuhan than in Hubei ex Wuhan and now 3 times.
Starting from Feb01, without Wuhan it would have been much easier to contain it. Most effort went into Wuhan : the hospitals,
the medical teams, the contact-tracing. There is no Wuhan yet in USA. Why should it be so difficult to contain it as in China ?
scan the travelers. forbid mass-events etc.
 
It’s not public knowledge yet but there is a probable case in Chelsea, MI. Cruise and flight history with an opaque chest X-ray. I’ll keep you posted if I hear anything more.
 
Thanks, mscox. I might try making a small bottle since I have some aloe gel and 91% iso. I'm going to stick with hand blending. 91% is highly flammable - any spark or flame could ignite the fumes.
 
I was thinking that one of the reasons Iran may face high Covif-19 casualties is due to the use of chemicals during the Iran-Iraq war. I read somewhere that in 2002, 80,000 were still being treated. How many are still alive, don't know, but they are at risk.
 
Does anyone happen to have links to evidence showing support for airborne transmission of COVID-19? I recall hearing about it in several videos from respectable sources, but I've lost track of the details.
 
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