China lied about SARS and I am not in a position to comment on any other disease - Sharon looks at far more China data. On COVID they have been amazing and the numbers are real, or as real as they can be in the midst of a major epidemic. As gs points out you can not hide the numbers when an epidemic is spreading wildly through your country, yes if there are a handful of cases you can hide them but not 10s of thousands. The WHO international team, which included US and EU members, to a man believed the numbers are truthful. Iran has not taken the same actions and the outbreak there is likely to be much faster and more deadly as poor containment will lead to insufficient hospital capacity. One thing that shocked me in China is how well equipped they were for a medium per capita GDP country. Aylward said they asked one hospital they visited about how many ventilators they had and if they had an ECMO machine the answer, from memory, was 30 respirators and 5 ECMO. CT scanners were everywhere and they did not bother with X-rays. A big UK hospital would not be able to say the same let alone sanctions hit Iran. The ECMO machines may not be of much use as I have read that they do not have the same use in COVID as in the severe flu cases, where they do increase survival chances.
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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)
- Thread starter sharon sanders
- Start date
Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
In the early days of the epidemic, it took more than one test to determine a case...they did not have the regents to test people. Those folks were sent home. How many were infected with flu and covid, since they were rounding up everyone with fever? How many flu cases became Covid cases because of lumping them together? The stats are what they are...and that is what the health care pros are going with. I am not a health care pro.
Canada is reporting cases using confusing terminology, at least to me:
? As of January 25, 2020, Toronto Public Health (TPH) has received notification of Toronto’s first presumptive confirmed case of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in a resident ?
? presumptive confirmed ? is a contradiction of adjectives for the single noun ?case?
perhaps they mean ? presumptive case based on symptoms ? or ? confirmed case based on tests and symptoms ?
J
? As of January 25, 2020, Toronto Public Health (TPH) has received notification of Toronto’s first presumptive confirmed case of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in a resident ?
? presumptive confirmed ? is a contradiction of adjectives for the single noun ?case?
perhaps they mean ? presumptive case based on symptoms ? or ? confirmed case based on tests and symptoms ?
J
Last edited by a moderator:
longshots
Active member
So this is on the BBC website, and it seems they misquoted the WHO, as the first three bullet points are not to protect you, they protect others! They are correct practices, but are terribly mislabeled - sloppy reporting!
To protect yourself, the World Health Organization (WHO) says it's more important to:
To protect yourself, the World Health Organization (WHO) says it's more important to:
- cover your mouth and nose while sneezing, with a tissue or your elbow
- put the tissue straight into a closed bin
- wash your hands afterwards, and then frequently, with soap or sanitiser
- keep your distance from people who are coughing and sneezing (at least one metre)
Yes, I get that. But it doesn't make sense to combine time periods like that. t=1= presumptive case. t=2=after Wpg level 3 lab results = confirmed. I'll assume that the author just took the phrases from the data base or spread sheet of the cases. Language used for reporting doesn't work when just the column headings are used.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
I see there is a big debate on the China COVID-19 numbers. If you look at their extreme measures like restricting almost 1/2 of their population to semi-home quarantine, shutting down entire cities including their capital, physically locking some of the population in their homes, cancelling mass events almost country wide, spraying individuals and entire city blocks with disinfectant, cancelling schools almost country wide, giving national advice on what to do with orphans, etc. etc. etc.
The numbers have to be huge. A lot more than approximately 84k. What percent of their population is that? .00006% rounded up?
So are we to believe that for .00006% of the population they have put their entire economy in peril?
I don't think so.
The numbers have to be huge. A lot more than approximately 84k. What percent of their population is that? .00006% rounded up?
So are we to believe that for .00006% of the population they have put their entire economy in peril?
I don't think so.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Translation Google
Coronavirus in China perhaps as early as October
From December faster circulation
Write to the editorial staff
ANSA Editorial Staff February 28, 20203:33 pm
A circulation earlier than expected, starting from the period between mid-October and mid-November and therefore a few weeks earlier then compared to the first cases of pneumonia identified, and a real boost in the acceleration of the spread that occurred in December: this is what emerges from the analysis of the genetic heritage of the new coronavirus being published in the Journal of Medical Virology and accessible on the MedRxiv website.
The research was carried out in the Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences of the Sacco Hospital in Milan and in the Research Center for Epidemiology and Molecular Surveillance of Infections (Episomes), which belongs to the same State University of Milan. It is due to Alessia Lai, Annalisa Bergna, Carla Acciarri, Massimo Galli and Gianguglielmo Zehender.
The research was based on the analysis of 52 complete SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus genomes deposited in international genetic data banks as of 30 January 2020 and allowed to establish the period in which the virus began to circulate and to reconstruct the spread of infection in the early months of the outbreak in China.
In this work, fundamental epidemiological parameters were fundamental, such as the basic reproductive number (indicated with R0) which indicates the number of new cases that can be generated by an individual with the infection, and the doubling time of the infections.
It has thus emerged that from a very low reproductive number, less than 1, in December the virus passed to 2.6: a figure, this, which according to the researchers allows us to hypothesize the rapid acquisition of a greater transmission efficiency of the virus. The causes of this transformation are not clear at the moment: it could be due to changes that have allowed the virus to transmit more efficiently from man to man, or to the characteristics of the population mainly affected.
The analysis also showed that the doubling time of the epidemic is estimated, starting from December, in about four days and therefore less than that calculated on the basis of the number of cases notified in the same period, which was equal to about a week .
The hypothesis of the researchers is that the transmission of the virus from the host animal to humans and the first human-to-human transmissions had initially limited efficiency, to become faster and more efficient in December. "It is likely - the researchers note - that this rapid growth of cases has subsequently decreased following the restrictive measures adopted in China".
Further studies on genomes isolated in a more recent period may confirm the usefulness of these techniques also in evaluating the effects of the preventive measures adopted.
--------------------------------------------------------
Link to the research:
Early Phylogenetic Estimate Of The Effective Reproduction Number Of 2019-nCoV
View ORCID ProfileAlessia Lai, Annalisa Bergna, Carla Acciarri, View ORCID ProfileMassimo Galli, View ORCID ProfileGianguglielmo Zehender
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851v1.full.pdf+html
Coronavirus in China perhaps as early as October
From December faster circulation
Write to the editorial staff
ANSA Editorial Staff February 28, 20203:33 pm
A circulation earlier than expected, starting from the period between mid-October and mid-November and therefore a few weeks earlier then compared to the first cases of pneumonia identified, and a real boost in the acceleration of the spread that occurred in December: this is what emerges from the analysis of the genetic heritage of the new coronavirus being published in the Journal of Medical Virology and accessible on the MedRxiv website.
The research was carried out in the Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences of the Sacco Hospital in Milan and in the Research Center for Epidemiology and Molecular Surveillance of Infections (Episomes), which belongs to the same State University of Milan. It is due to Alessia Lai, Annalisa Bergna, Carla Acciarri, Massimo Galli and Gianguglielmo Zehender.
The research was based on the analysis of 52 complete SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus genomes deposited in international genetic data banks as of 30 January 2020 and allowed to establish the period in which the virus began to circulate and to reconstruct the spread of infection in the early months of the outbreak in China.
In this work, fundamental epidemiological parameters were fundamental, such as the basic reproductive number (indicated with R0) which indicates the number of new cases that can be generated by an individual with the infection, and the doubling time of the infections.
It has thus emerged that from a very low reproductive number, less than 1, in December the virus passed to 2.6: a figure, this, which according to the researchers allows us to hypothesize the rapid acquisition of a greater transmission efficiency of the virus. The causes of this transformation are not clear at the moment: it could be due to changes that have allowed the virus to transmit more efficiently from man to man, or to the characteristics of the population mainly affected.
The analysis also showed that the doubling time of the epidemic is estimated, starting from December, in about four days and therefore less than that calculated on the basis of the number of cases notified in the same period, which was equal to about a week .
The hypothesis of the researchers is that the transmission of the virus from the host animal to humans and the first human-to-human transmissions had initially limited efficiency, to become faster and more efficient in December. "It is likely - the researchers note - that this rapid growth of cases has subsequently decreased following the restrictive measures adopted in China".
Further studies on genomes isolated in a more recent period may confirm the usefulness of these techniques also in evaluating the effects of the preventive measures adopted.
--------------------------------------------------------
Link to the research:
Early Phylogenetic Estimate Of The Effective Reproduction Number Of 2019-nCoV
View ORCID ProfileAlessia Lai, Annalisa Bergna, Carla Acciarri, View ORCID ProfileMassimo Galli, View ORCID ProfileGianguglielmo Zehender
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851v1.full.pdf+html
mcphilbrick
Well-known member
The Costs of Secrecy - Science Magazine
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6481/959
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6481/959
mcphilbrick
Well-known member
Responding to Covid-19 - a Once-In-A-Century Pandemic (New England Journal of Medicine)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762
JimO
Well-known member
Let's not fool ourselves. Despite draconian measures, China has failed to contain it and it appears that no other countries will be able to either. Some countries reported an initial case or cases and then have gone silent. Trillions of dollars in tourist and other travel revenue is at stake and I'm sure some nations have decided to simply keep quiet. Look at how quickly cases have shown up globally that can be traced to Italy or Iran. I even wonder if cases are already present where testing hasn't occurred because of people traveling from China in December. If tissue samples are available from suspected flu deaths, we might find that COVID was the cause.
I don't believe that any numbers coming out of China are reliable. Their economy is suffering badly and they are desperate to make it look as though they have contained it primarily to Hubei province and that things are improving in Wuhan. They need the world to believe that their control measures are working. Non-government sources do not support this story line and, in fact, I would bet the opposite is true. The Chinese government has never accurately reported data related to disease outbreaks or even natural disasters and with so much at stake, why would they start now? And realistically, they don't have enough test kits to test even a fraction of the suspected cases.
The outbreaks in Europe and the Middle East will, unfortunately, reveal more about this pandemic than what limited information has come from the Chinese government. At this point, all we can say is that it originated in China, was circulating H2H weeks or even months before it was reported to the WHO, and it has spread broadly from there. Most other information related to what has been happening in China is mired in politics.
Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
[h=1]China gets back to work — sort of — as number of new COVID-19 cases wanes[/h]
Feb 28, 2020
Several economic metrics tick upward in the country where the coronavirus crisis began as the rest of the world begins to cope
Signs of life are emerging in China’s coronavirus-stricken economy — even as the epidemic is exploding around the world.
A number of key metrics of economic health have ticked up in the last week or two. Workers are returning, factories are firing back up, and even consumer-facing businesses are opening their doors.
This is the immediate result of the abatement of COVID-19 in China and the government’s relaxing of policies that had essentially halted economic production, except at hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and delivery services.
Feb 28, 2020
Several economic metrics tick upward in the country where the coronavirus crisis began as the rest of the world begins to cope
Signs of life are emerging in China’s coronavirus-stricken economy — even as the epidemic is exploding around the world.
A number of key metrics of economic health have ticked up in the last week or two. Workers are returning, factories are firing back up, and even consumer-facing businesses are opening their doors.
This is the immediate result of the abatement of COVID-19 in China and the government’s relaxing of policies that had essentially halted economic production, except at hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and delivery services.
Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
From the American Council On Sciene And Health:
BBC Report: 210 Dead in Iran from Coronavirus. How Many Are Infected?
By Alex Berezow, PhD — February 28, 2020
A lot remains unknown about how many people are infected with coronavirus. One of the few certainties is that far more people are infected than official numbers suggest. A rough calculation suggests anywhere from 150,000 to 3 million global infections... Read more at: https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/02/2...-iran-coronavirus-how-many-are-infected-14602
BBC Report: 210 Dead in Iran from Coronavirus. How Many Are Infected?
By Alex Berezow, PhD — February 28, 2020
A lot remains unknown about how many people are infected with coronavirus. One of the few certainties is that far more people are infected than official numbers suggest. A rough calculation suggests anywhere from 150,000 to 3 million global infections... Read more at: https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/02/2...-iran-coronavirus-how-many-are-infected-14602
mcphilbrick
Well-known member
[h=1]Positive RT-PCR Test Results in Patients Recovered From COVID-19[/h] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
3.8 million Chinese have died since January 1. (1.4 billion population with an annual fatality rate of 1.7%) How many tests do you think the Chinese managed to conduct each day.
Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
Virus cake anyone? Italians fight fear with silliness
28 Feb 2020 11:41PM
(Updated: 29 Feb 2020 12:00AM)
ROME: Crack that prosecco, it's aperivirus time. And why not accompany your bubbly with a slice of virus ice-cream cake, fresh from the area of Italy worst hit by the disease?
Italy has the most coronavirus cases in Europe and highest death toll but rather than succumb to fear, wisecracking Italians have opted to laugh in the face of danger with a slew of parodies, jokes and general silliness...
Read more:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-italians-fight-fear-with-silliness-12483102
28 Feb 2020 11:41PM
(Updated: 29 Feb 2020 12:00AM)
ROME: Crack that prosecco, it's aperivirus time. And why not accompany your bubbly with a slice of virus ice-cream cake, fresh from the area of Italy worst hit by the disease?
Italy has the most coronavirus cases in Europe and highest death toll but rather than succumb to fear, wisecracking Italians have opted to laugh in the face of danger with a slew of parodies, jokes and general silliness...
Read more:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-italians-fight-fear-with-silliness-12483102
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
Thank you Mcphilbrick
snip "After hospital discharge or discontinuation of quarantine, the patients were asked to continue the quarantine protocol at home for 5 days. The RT-PCR tests were repeated 5 to 13 days later and all were positive. All patients had 3 repeat RT-PCR tests performed over the next 4 to 5 days and all were positive. An additional RT-PCR test was performed using a kit from a different manufacturer and the results were also positive for all patients. The patients continued to be asymptomatic by clinician examination and chest CT findings showed no change from previous images. They did not report contact with any person with respiratory symptoms. No family member was infected." !
snip "After hospital discharge or discontinuation of quarantine, the patients were asked to continue the quarantine protocol at home for 5 days. The RT-PCR tests were repeated 5 to 13 days later and all were positive. All patients had 3 repeat RT-PCR tests performed over the next 4 to 5 days and all were positive. An additional RT-PCR test was performed using a kit from a different manufacturer and the results were also positive for all patients. The patients continued to be asymptomatic by clinician examination and chest CT findings showed no change from previous images. They did not report contact with any person with respiratory symptoms. No family member was infected." !
gsgs
Registered User
Agenda Free TV said :
> Might be time to just say, it's spreading around the world, whoever's gonna get
> it will get it, and let's deal with that
no !!! that's the Trump/USA/Germany etc. agenda ;
anti China, anti WHO ,
WHO recommends the drastic Chinese measures to stop it.
hopefully there will be some papers, some modelings soon.
Those who survive will make the statistics what method was better in the end.
Both for economy and #of lives, diseases.
These successful Chinese measures had been absent from all the
previous modelings, AFAIK. We _urgently_ need the updates
--------------------------------------------
> Might be time to just say, it's spreading around the world, whoever's gonna get
> it will get it, and let's deal with that
no !!! that's the Trump/USA/Germany etc. agenda ;
anti China, anti WHO ,
WHO recommends the drastic Chinese measures to stop it.
hopefully there will be some papers, some modelings soon.
Those who survive will make the statistics what method was better in the end.
Both for economy and #of lives, diseases.
These successful Chinese measures had been absent from all the
previous modelings, AFAIK. We _urgently_ need the updates
--------------------------------------------