I can give you an opinion and try and indicate what that opinion is based on if it helps.
I think that whilst we have great doctors and epidemiologists, following 10 years of underfunding, the whole PHE and NHS system is a mess. The NHS at present can barely cope with the workload from a severe flu year, and we are (in England alone) 10,000 doctors short and 40,000 nurses short. Critical supplies have been purchased on a 'just in time' basis and I would eat my hat if even a tiny percentage of hospitals / NHS Trusts have adequate safety stocks for an emergency such as this one due to funding shortages - and even if they are trying to correct that now, it will be difficult if not impossible to secure extra supplies of disposables and PPE equipment. They (i,e the powers that be within hospitals') know this, but i am entirely unconvinced that PHE (Public Health England) have grasped this fact and the cosnequences of it - instead choosing to try and position masks as unnecessary - not just for the public at large but also most medics.
See
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1822...lling-control/
And
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1823...reak-brighton/
My daughter is a doctor and takes part in a Mum's group for medics. She tells me that the group is 'alive' with reports that people who have all the right travel or close contact history are being sent by NHS 111 to their GP surgeries (this is NOT supposed to happen). When GPs and medics are trying to arrange testing it is frequently being denied; even close contacts of KNOWN cases are having difficulties.The medics themselves are being refused testing in many cases when there is a good justification for them to take place. In other words, it is not just a local problem in Sussex (see news reports linked above), its a national level of disorganisation and confusion.
It is a total mess. Now add to that that the UK fears social unrest and panic more than anything else, and I suspect (pure guess) that No 10 has made it more or less a state secret to discuss actual cases under schedule D notices, so suspect cases are not being reported. I also question how accurate our PCR testing is given that only 30 - 50% of tests in China of clinically diagnosed cases have been positive... so lots of cases may be being treated as severe influenza. (Again my guess). Yet they have expanded the country list FOR testing.
Now more lately it looks like they will be using self isolation as a policy, but economic concerns (keep the economy going will be No 1 priority for the current government IMHO) means that I think they will just let this run and manage things on an ad hoc basis. I dont think the strategists have a clue about how severe this will be and the knock on effects as a whole, at every level. They are too preoccupied with the potential catastrophe of Brexit (again IMHO) and all energies are focussed in that direction.
So my conclusion is that - even though some are well aware of the problem and potential severity, they are choosing to take the best case scenario and assume it wont be worse that the current flu season. God help us in the UK if even half this lot of supposition is correct!
Edit: One additional point is that the UK already uses its army medics within the NHS to bolster numbers - so we dont have a military 'reserve' to deploy either. In fact, we will lose these medics back to the armed forces in an emergency situation, as they will need to focus efforts on their primary job - looking after armed forces and their families... so the understaffing situation will get far worse. Additionally, we currently have ONLY 50 specialist isolation beds and 500 ICU beds nationally in England. If they let this run and @20% of cases are severe, (given that the disease course runs for several weeks before recovery or death), we will not have beds for severe cases (i.e we won't be very much better than 1918) within a few days of an epidemic outbreak as things stand (i.e if the situation in China is mirrored equally in the UK.)
Not only do we have a dire shortage of hospital beds, but also a dire shortage of medics - and if the current lackadaisical attitudes continue and we don't adequately protect the medics we have, then they will get sick and there will be no-one left to treat the patients.
Second Edit: This local report just put out sums things up really.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/182...doctors-coronavirus-isolation-says-clinician/
