• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

Status
Not open for further replies.
JJackson commented
Today, 11:26 AM


Readymom I think this relating to how many people it passed though Host2Human2H2H. The significance of 3rd and 4th gen cases is covered in the link in post#194. In short it is indicator of how sustainable its H2H is - i.e. a bad sign.

= = = = = =


Thank you! That is exactly what I was questioning. It's sustained H2H. Ugh!
 
I don't find the source of this news


British and American scholars estimate that more than 190,000 people will be infected with new viral pneumonia after 10 days in Wuhan




The number of new viral pneumonia infections has continued to rise. Some scholars in the United Kingdom and the United States have calculated that if the epidemic prevention measures are not changed, the number of infected people in Wuhan will increase to more than 190,000 in 10 days. It was found to be because most cases were mild.

Five scholars from universities such as the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom, using case data analysis as of Tuesday, believe that Wuhan ’s restrictions on access can only reduce the number of cases of infection outside Wuhan by about 25%. It is estimated that there will be outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu, and Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea also have the opportunity to import cases due to air traffic.

Scholars estimate that patients infected with the new coronavirus can transmit the virus to 3.8 people on average, more than SARS. They believe that the rapid increase in cases is much higher than SARS or the Middle East respiratory syndrome, and it is estimated that it will be more difficult to control the epidemic.


https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200125.htm
 
I don't find the source of this news


British and American scholars estimate that more than 190,000 people will be infected with new viral pneumonia after 10 days in Wuhan




The number of new viral pneumonia infections has continued to rise. Some scholars in the United Kingdom and the United States have calculated that if the epidemic prevention measures are not changed, the number of infected people in Wuhan will increase to more than 190,000 in 10 days. It was found to be because most cases were mild.

Five scholars from universities such as the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom, using case data analysis as of Tuesday, believe that Wuhan ’s restrictions on access can only reduce the number of cases of infection outside Wuhan by about 25%. It is estimated that there will be outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu, and Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea also have the opportunity to import cases due to air traffic.

Scholars estimate that patients infected with the new coronavirus can transmit the virus to 3.8 people on average, more than SARS. They believe that the rapid increase in cases is much higher than SARS or the Middle East respiratory syndrome, and it is estimated that it will be more difficult to control the epidemic.


https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200125.htm

I can't find the source either. They don't list the scholars. I looked all over the University of Lancaster site and did not find it.
 
Source: https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/1/24/n11818867.htm

Online exposure of a funeral home in Wuhan pulls 50 dead a day
Update: 2020-01-25 3:05 AM Tags: Wuhan pneumonia, 50 dead, patients fall to the ground

Epoch Times, January 25, 2020: The pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan may be much more severe than the official CCP report, and the number of deaths may also be much higher than the official figure. A netizen in Wuhan broke the news that only one local funeral home pulled 50 bodies a day.

A netizen named "Sister Sister Mighty" posted news on January 24 that her aunt died of a new type of pneumonia and her body was placed on the bed of Hankou Hospital yesterday. The hospital was not allowed to enter the morgue, and her family members should contact the funeral home and disinfect themselves .

After her aunt died at about 10 pm on the 23rd, her family contacted a funeral home. Until 11 noon on the 24th, the funeral car had not arrived.

Because there was only one car in the funeral home to sterilize, the whole city pulled dead people, and one hospital and one hospital pulled, "Yesterday (23) 50 people were killed a day." When people die, they are thrown there. No one cares about it.

She also said, "I'm also scared. People die when they are left on the hospital bed. The temperature of the hospital is high, the virus is fermented, and the virus spreads freely, which will infect more people. This is definitely not only my aunt's family. The hospital is a Big sick bank! "
Netizens broke the news that a funeral home in Wuhan pulled 50 dead people one day on the 23rd. (webpage Screenshot)

According to the Chinese Communist Party's official report on January 24, as of now, a total of 903 cases have been confirmed in the mainland, of which 495 cases have been confirmed in Wuhan; 26 people have died, 24 in Hubei, 1 in Hebei, and 1 in Heilongjiang.

However, current political commentator Shi Shi said that the information disclosed on the Internet showed that the death toll was far higher than the 26 officially reported by the CCP.

Shi Shi said that there is more than one funeral home in Wuhan, and the above-mentioned netizens broke the news that only one funeral home pulled 50 corpses a day, indicating that in Wuhan alone, more than 50 people died on the 23rd.

The video disclosed by Wuhan netizens on the 23rd showed that the local patient fell to the ground directly at the hospital or the roadside, the picture was shocked, but these posts and videos were continuously deleted.

A person familiar with the matter quoted a friend who was in the Wuhan community to introduce him. Some patients fell ill and fell directly to the ground! Five cases have appeared in a certain district in Wuhan, and were towed away by medical staff after discovery.

On the 23rd, an online recording of an internal group sent by the head nurse of Wuhan Xiehe Hospital to his family and relatives was also circulated on the Internet.

Recordings show that the current epidemic situation in Wuhan is far more severe than the outside world thinks. All major hospitals are overcrowded. Now the hospitals do not accept ordinary patients at all. Many hospitals leave the entire ward or ward to employees and their families.

She revealed, "A medical department in (Wuhan) Concord has been recruited, and now orthopedic surgeons are working as internal medicine (doctors)."

She said that what I want to tell you now is that this coronavirus has no medicine to treat at all, and it is the key that its immunity can survive this viral period. She suggested that family members and loved ones should never go out, visit relatives and friends, and wear a few more layers of masks, wash hands, drink plenty of water, etc. when going out. #

Editor-in-Chief: Zhang Dun
 
Anyone looking into R0 estimates ? R0 is estimated to be 1.4-2.5 by WHO whereas estimates for H1N1 and seasonal flu are lower. Can it be stopped with this R0 ?

From
https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) :
Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

[h=2]Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: …[/h] Deze pagina vertalen

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404
22-6-2009 ? The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918-1919 pandemic strain (mean R0 approximately 2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1).
 
There is no evidence that people of any particular nationality are more or less susceptible to this new coronavirus. At this time, the most significant factor associated with being infected with this coronavirus is having traveled to or from Wuhan or have been in contact with sick people who have traveled to or from Hubei Province.

I was referring to the potential of Chinese students having traveled here in recent weeks to attend or return to school and who might have been exposed while in China.
 
Anyone looking into R0 estimates ? R0 is estimated to be 1.4-2.5 by WHO whereas estimates for H1N1 and seasonal flu are lower. Can it be stopped with this R0 ?

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...ish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future
[h=1]100 Years after the Spanish Flu: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future[/h] Here is an excerpt from the article discussing the R0:

"To capture the risk of a global pandemic, the model was configured to simulate what would happen if a newly emerged virus—i.e., one in which health systems are not prepared for and likely do not have a vaccine to prevent—appeared in southeast Asia. The model utilized typical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) dynamics: all individuals were assumed to be susceptible, and immunity to the virus did not wane. The virus was given an R0 (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) of 2.1. For comparison, seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3; the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2. Individuals in the model could travel both locally and by airplane, thereby moving the virus within and across countries. With an initial seeding of about 800 infections, the simulation demonstrated how an unchecked epidemic can very quickly evolve into a pandemic within a wholly susceptible population."
 
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...llenges-future
100 Years after the Spanish Flu: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future
Here is an excerpt from the article discussing the R0:
"To capture the risk of a global pandemic, the model was configured to simulate what would happen if a newly emerged virus—i.e., one in which health systems are not prepared for and likely do not have a vaccine to prevent—appeared in southeast Asia. The model utilized typical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) dynamics: all individuals were assumed to be susceptible, and immunity to the virus did not wane. The virus was given an R0 (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) of 2.1.
For comparison, seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3; the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2.
Individuals in the model could travel both locally and by airplane, thereby moving the virus within and across countries. With an initial seeding of about 800 infections, the simulation demonstrated how an unchecked epidemic can very quickly evolve into a pandemic within a wholly susceptible population."

That is what I referred to. The R0 estimates of the coronavirus are higher than seasonal flu and comparable to the 1918 strain of flu. What does this mean for containment.SARS also had a high R0 but was contained. Just wondering - and yes, anxious too.
 
I don't find the source of this news


British and American scholars estimate that more than 190,000 people will be infected with new viral pneumonia after 10 days in Wuhan




The number of new viral pneumonia infections has continued to rise. Some scholars in the United Kingdom and the United States have calculated that if the epidemic prevention measures are not changed, the number of infected people in Wuhan will increase to more than 190,000 in 10 days. It was found to be because most cases were mild.

Five scholars from universities such as the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom, using case data analysis as of Tuesday, believe that Wuhan ’s restrictions on access can only reduce the number of cases of infection outside Wuhan by about 25%. It is estimated that there will be outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu, and Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea also have the opportunity to import cases due to air traffic.

Scholars estimate that patients infected with the new coronavirus can transmit the virus to 3.8 people on average, more than SARS. They believe that the rapid increase in cases is much higher than SARS or the Middle East respiratory syndrome, and it is estimated that it will be more difficult to control the epidemic.


https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200125.htm


Here it is:



Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions
Jonathan M. Read1, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1, Derek A.T. Cummings2, Antonia Ho3, Chris P.Jewell1

Affiliations:
1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Gainesville, United States of America.
3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
United Kingdom.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7..._3PmysukL/view
 
Hello Everyone,

Watching this closely. Came across this video. Not sure of the accuracy or validity. Would anyone be able to translate? Transcript in comments.

https://youtu.be/o4rRuEvvC0U

I tried to find the chinese text on twitter but could not find it, however I found this, BUT I do not know is the translation is correct !!!

EclipseTheSun
@EclipseTheSun3
?
5 t
Svarer
@aniilai
og
@telegram
She says: I'm Jingui, I work for hospital in Wuhan. The government is lying, more than 90,000 people had died in Hubei and throughout the China! The person-to-person base is 1 > 14, meaning one person infects 14. The virus is mutating and spreading explosively.
 
I tried to find the chinese text on twitter but could not find it, however I found this, BUT I do not know is the translation is correct !!!

EclipseTheSun
@EclipseTheSun3
?
5 t
Svarer
@aniilai
og
@telegram
She says: I'm Jingui, I work for hospital in Wuhan. The government is lying, more than 90,000 people had died in Hubei and throughout the China! The person-to-person base is 1 > 14, meaning one person infects 14. The virus is mutating and spreading explosively.




Here is the you tube address.
[h=2]從Telegram上取得的影片 希望大家互相發放出去 讓大家清楚知道疫情[/h]
 
I find this statement to be very general given we haven’t had any official H2H reported outside of China

”He [Cuomo] added that people who feel symptoms "very similar to a common cold" and who are concerned they may have been exposed to this virus, especially if they traveled to the affected zone in China, should follow recommendations to call their health care providers before arriving for treatment.”

https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus-nassau-county-health-advisory-long-island-1.40963011
 
Here is the you tube address.
[h=2]從Telegram上取得的影片 希望大家互相發放出去 讓大家清楚知道疫情[/h]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQnMM-YNJw8

Here is a translation of "Jinhui"'s video message that is posted in the comments below the video, this is the second translation posted:

The words of the physician in the film:
"My friends and relatives in the family, I am Jinhui. I am still in the epidemic area of ​​Wuhan-Hankou. I ... report to you the current situation in Hubei and even the whole country. There are now more than 90,000 people (infected), what is the chance of this virus being transmitted? That is, after a person is infected, if she is not effectively isolated or treated, he will be transmitted to 14 people around him, then this base is very large. Now is the Spring Festival holiday, the traditional Chinese New Year holiday, relatives, friends and children are brought home to eat dinner together. The situation is special now, and I hope that everyone will not go out, do not party, and do not go to the door (new year). Every year in the Spring Festival, as long as people are safe, everyone can be together anytime, anywhere.


I would like to introduce to you the medical supplies of the entire Hubei Province. Now the entire medical system in Wuhan, and the entire medical system in Hubei Province, have passed through our superiors, the health and health committees, and various municipal departments, municipal governments, and provincial governments, and have initiated donations to the society through major media. This material is medical material, such as the goggles I wear, the disposable masks, the disposable gloves I wear, the gowns I wear, and the trousers I wear. This material is particularly tight. Our current medical staff, who have come down from the clinic, are now back on the line. I am now recording this video with everyone on the hot line just to alert everyone. I stress again, don't go out during the Spring Festival holiday! Just stay in your own room! Otherwise, why am I killed in front? !! I do it for my family, my loved ones, and they are healthy. I hope everyone can understand, and I also know that some relatives are not in the group (WeChat group), please those who see my news call each other and inform each other, they must do it! I hope everyone can raise awareness, this is a political task.

And report a very bad news, this new type of coronavirus has undergone a second-generation mutation, which means that when the first-generation mutation, we can treat it symptomatically. Then when the second generation mutation occurs, this is terrible! Because its chance of infection is not a disease that is transmitted by one person or one person. Infect 14 people around! Then it is explosive! Hope everyone must keep in mind, do n’t go out, do n’t go out, do n’t party, do n’t have dinner! thank you all. A
 
Translation:
...Mr. Zhang said that according to information provided by doctors, the disclosure that triggered the widespread viral pneumonia was not all coronaviruses, but other viruses. Coronavirus-associated pneumonia is currently being reported in China: "This virus is too fierce. I am not a coronavirus. Coronavirus patients are reported daily. I am another viral pneumonia. Their coronavirus patients are isolated in another building. Here, all in isolation. "

He also disclosed that the top national respiratory disease experts sent by the State Council of China gathered in Wuhan. They have a team who is at the Jinyintan Hospital 24 hours a day. Each case must be consulted and every change must be tracked.

According to the report, CCP experts have grasped at least two new viruses that caused the outbreak. But so far, the official has only published the gene sequence of a "new coronavirus" (named "2019-nCoV"), and never disclosed any other new viruses.

https://m.secretchina.com/news/gb/2020/01/24/amp920721.html
 
R0 appears to be 3-4, according to some estimates. This isn't going to be contained by quarantines and isolation like SARS was.

The number of actual infections is probably huge. I've done a couple different calculations based on the number of exported cases, and I think we're talking 50k-100k cases already in Wuhan itself, which still is less than a 1% attack rate in the city. If this virus had even a 5% CFR, you'd have about 2000-4000 dead or dying by now.

Of course, there's a huge difference between a pandemic at 0.3% CFR and one at 3% CFR.

The very low number of discharges is also a little concerning, but I'm assuming that's a precaution to prevent people from spreading the virus. Only 38 discharges total in all of China, of which 28 of them are from the first 41 hospitalized cases.

I hope there are samples in Wuhan of pneumonia patients from November and December to test for this virus retroactively. It's possible that this virus didn't jump to humans in that seafood market, but rather that the large crowds gathering in that market resulted in enough cases to draw attention, in much the same was that 2009 H1N1 was only first noticed when it hit large cities like Mexico City and Oaxaca, despite circulating in humans for weeks.
 
Referring to this post:
Given the potential numbers - what is the tipping point where testing for virus confirmation can no longer be sustained? At some point the exponential increase will overwhelm health care systems.
 
Referring to this post:
Given the potential numbers - what is the tipping point where testing for virus confirmation can no longer be sustained? At some point the exponential increase will overwhelm health care systems.

How many cases were confirmed worldwide in the H1N1 pandemic? Only about 50,000, I believe. Then they just stopped testing.

I've previously said years ago that in a severe H5N1 pandemic, only a few thousand cases would be confirmed before testing broke down.

I suspect this is somewhere between the two in terms of the eventual number of confirmed cases. A thread posted tonight indicates an estimate that China is confirming only 5.1% of cases already; that will surely drop as the virus spreads. My personal estimates were that I thought they were confirming something more like 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 actual infections.

And this virus is probably a bit harder to test for than flu would be....
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top