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Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....911669v1.full


A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus


Tianmu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiupeng Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, Ling Yin
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review

Abstract

As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.

Introduction

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January(1). Potential for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed(2). Public health concerns have been paid globally on how many people had been infected actually.
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.
The Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model

We assumed that the virus transmitted among the bats population, and then transmitted to an unknown host (probably be wild animals). The hosts were hunted and sent to the seafood market which was defined as the reservoir or the virus. People exposed to the market got the risks of the infection (Figure 1).


diagrams and more at link


also
pdf link

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...669v1.full.pdf
 
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/lax-pass...virus-symptoms

LAX passenger quarantined after showing potential coronavirus symptoms

Published 2 hours ago
Updated 33 mins ago


LOS ANGELES - A passenger arriving on an American Airlines flight to Los Angeles International Airport from Mexico City was hospitalized and quarantined after showing what health officials called “disturbing" symptoms, that indicate the patient may have been exposed to the deadly coronavirus, it was announced Thursday.

American Airlines flight 2546 arrived around 6:45 p.m. Wednesday and was met by Los Angeles firefighters and police.

The Los Angeles Fire Department conducted a deep contamination process after the patient was transported to a local hospital Wednesday night.

This development comes a day after Los Angeles County public health officials said it was “very possible” the area will see at least one patient, given the number of people traveling between the Southland and China.

Health screenings continue at LAX for passengers arriving from China amid the coronavirus outbreak. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began conducting health screenings of passengers arriving at Los Angeles International Airport from China on Saturday.

Officials stress there have been no local case of the China-based coronavirus, but insisted the county is prepared to respond to any cases and they urged the public not to be fearful of anyone who may have recently traveled to China.

“Many people travel. ... We don't want people saying, `Oh you've been to China. You can't come to school or work,''' said Dr. Sharon Balter, the LA County Department of Public Health's director of acute communicable disease control. “We don't want that. I think part of the reason we're talking right now is to say these are the things we're doing to get ready. If there is a case in L.A. County, we are prepared to react and this is how we'll do it.”

Barbara Ferrer, director of the Department of Public Health, also insisted that just because someone may have visited China -- or even the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak is centered -- it does not mean the person presents a health risk.

Ferrer said that while no local cases have been reported, Los Angeles' role as a major travel hub makes it likely that one will arise.

more at link
 
From yesterday, sorry if already posted.


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publi...iratory-syndrome-associated-novel-coronavirus
[h=1]Risk assessment: Outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome associated with a novel coronavirus, Wuhan, China; first update[/h]
22 Jan 2020


A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been isolated and considered the causative agent of the cluster of 448 pneumonia cases in the area of Wuhan, Hubei province in China, as well as of the four travel-associated cases in Thailand, Japan and South Korea. [h=2]Executive summary[/h] On 31 December 2019, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China reported a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown aetiology, with a common reported link to Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (a wholesale fish and live animal market selling different animal species).
On 9 January 2020, China CDC reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) had been detected as the causative agent and the genome sequence was made publicly available. Sequence analysis showed that the newly-identified virus is related to the SARS-CoV clade. Detection systems have been developed and are available for the Member States through WHO and the European Virus Archive global catalogue.
As of 20 January 2020, a total of 295 laboratory-confirmed cases infected with 2019-nCoV have been reported, 291 from Wuhan, China and four travel-associated from Thailand (2), Japan (1) and South Korea (1). Four deaths have been reported among the cases. Chinese health authorities have confirmed human-to-human transmission and 15 healthcare workers are reported to have been infected in Wuhan. The original source of the outbreak remains unknown and therefore further cases and deaths are expected in Wuhan, and in China. It is possible that further cases will also be detected among travellers from Wuhan to other countries.
There are considerable uncertainties in assessing the risk of this event, due to lack of detailed epidemiological analyses.
On the basis of the information currently available, ECDC considers that:
  • the potential impact of 2019-nCoV outbreaks is high;
  • further global spread is likely;
  • there is currently a moderate likelihood of infection for EU/EEA travellers visiting Wuhan;
  • there is a high likelihood of case importation into countries with the greatest volume of people travelling to and from Wuhan (i.e. countries in Asia);
  • there is a moderate likelihood of detecting cases imported into EU/EEA countries;
  • adherence to appropriate infection prevention and control practices, particularly in healthcare settings in EU/EEA countries with direct links to Wuhan, means that the likelihood of a case reported in the EU resulting in secondary cases within the EU/EEA is low.
pdf link
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...essment-pneumonia-Wuhan-China-22-Jan-2020.pdf
 
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html

13 min ago [h=2]Two cases of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed in Hong Kong[/h]
From CNN’s Bex Wright in Hong KongTwo cases of Wuhan coronavirus in Hong Kong have been confirmed, according to a statement from Hong Kong’s Department of Health on Thursday.
The two “highly suspected imported cases” were first reported on Wednesday and announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos by Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam.
The Hong Kong Department of Health said the patients who were infected tested positive for the virus and that the patients are in stable condition. The department is continuing its investigation into the cases.

The Government of the Honk Kong Special Administrative Region

press releases

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202001/23/P2020012300914.htm



_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html


41 min ago [h=2]CDC raises travel advisory for Wuhan to highest level[/h]
From CNN Health’s Michael Nedelman

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has raised its travel notice for Wuhan, China, to the highest of three levels, according to its website.

"CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Wuhan, China,” it said in announcing the increase to “Warning - Level 3” status.

The CDC recommends that travelers “remain alert if traveling to other parts of China” by avoiding contact with sick people, animals and animal markets. China as a whole carries a “Watch - Level 1” travel advisory.

For those who traveled to China in the past two weeks and have symptoms such as fever, cough or trouble breathing, the agency recommends seeking immediate care, avoiding contact with others, not traveling, and practicing proper hygiene.

The CDC says that symptoms of the Wuhan coronavirus may appear in as little as 2 days and up to 14, according to its website. This is based largely on what the agency knows about MERS — a different type of coronavirus.

Health experts say there is still a lot to unravel about how — and how quickly — the virus spreads.

"At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people,” the CDC said.
 
A review of the posts in the news thread on (2019-nCoV) from the past 24 hours, indicates that government health agencies in many provinces are finally beginning to provide up-to-date information about cases occurring in their jurisdiction. I think there is now a clearer picture of the epidemic and its spread in China, and that picture is not good.
 
https://twitter.com/CNBCTheExchange/status/1220409319839162368


CNBC's @onlyyoontv breaks down what's happening on the ground in China with the coronavirus spreading on @CNBCTheExchange . What cities are closed, how many people are impacted, the precautions they're taking and the huge impact on the Lunar New Year.
"7 cities and 23 million people are effectively under quarantine."

Wuhan, Huanggang, Zhijiang, Ezhou, Qianjiang, Chibi, and Xiantao.

video at link​
 
Hattip Tetano

Post #550 on the main thread
...
Guan Yi is an expert in the field of virology and currently serves as the director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Director of the Influenza Research Center of the University of Hong Kong
...
I have also counted hundreds of battles and experienced bird flu, SARS, H5N1, swine fever and so on. But for this pneumonia in Wuhan, I really feel extremely weak. There is simply no comparison with the SARS epidemic. At that time, SARS first developed in several cities in the Pearl River Delta, followed by Beijing and Hong Kong.

60% -70% of the SARS infected people are from individual super communicators, and the transmission chain is very clear, as long as the contacts of those people are blocked. But this time, the source of transmission has been fully spread, and epidemiological investigations are no longer possible. And to control costs, you should use a geometric digital meter.

It is conservatively estimated that the scale of the infection may eventually take off 10 times that of SARS. I've experienced so much, I've never felt scared, most of them are controllable, but this time I'm scared.
 
U of T infectious disease expert Allison McGeer on Wuhan coronavirus risks – and uncertainties

....McGeer is a professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, a professor in the department of laboratory medicine and pathobiology at the Faculty of Medicine and director of the Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Research Unit at Mount Sinai Hospital. She contracted SARS when she was on the front lines of that outbreak in Toronto in 2003....


https://www.utoronto.ca/news/u-t-in...eer-wuhan-coronavirus-risks-and-uncertainties
 
Source: https://healthjournalism.org/blog/20...n-coronavirus/
Use caution when reporting on pandemic potential of Wuhan coronavirus
by Bara Vaida | January 23, 2020
Bara Vaida

Bara Vaida (@barav) is AHCJ's core topic leader on infectious diseases. An independent journalist, she has written extensively about health policy and infectious diseases. Her work has appeared in outlets that include the National Journal, Agence France-Presse, Bloomberg News, McClatchy News Service, MSNBC, NPR, Politico and The Washington Post.



The novel coronavirus from China that had infected at least 634 people as of early today has led some media to report about the potential of a pandemic.

Reporters localizing the story for their audiences should be able to answer these questions: When does an infectious disease outbreak become a pandemic, and is it likely with this virus? How worried should Americans be?

more...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Shiloh thanks re. Allison McGeer on Wuhan coronavirus. Highly recommended as she nails the key points and does it clearly.
 
theforeigner said:
This is a VERY scary scenario, hospital staf (doctor?) collapsing (dying?) on the floor :

https://twitter.com/soloveonews/status/1220471244723757056

URGENT VIDEO: MEDICAL STAFF IN CHINA. WUHAN- REPORTEDLY COLLAPSING DUE TO #CoronavirusOutbreak

Has WHO seen thise kinds of videos ?
There are serveral videos of people collapsing/dying in hospitals, streets etc. on Twitter.
Click to expand...

China coronavirus: Wuhan medical staff being infected at much faster pace than reported, sources say:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047441/wuhan-medical-staff-being-infected-virus-much-faster-pace
 
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