Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

[alert]

This is truly unprecedented. Beijing might have quarantined approximately one million people at the peak of the 2003 SARS outbreak, but this would be an order of magnitude higher.

I'm assuming that most businesses will be shut down so that people don't have to work. I'm hoping the government has planned out logistics for how food and other supplies will get into the city; perhaps the military will be deployed to assist. Without sufficient supplies, quarantine won't work because the quarantined area will become viewed as a death trap that everyone wants to flee.

There really is no alternative. If this is not contained, we're going to have a pandemic with the transmissibility of flu and the CFR and treatment options of SARS. That's probably worse than even an H5N1 pandemic, as H5N1 has antivirals and perhaps eventually a vaccine.

I no longer think this virus is as mild as some of the reports portray it. The apparent CFR just seems low because most patients are still ill. Remember that although our estimate of the CFR of H1N1 dropped as the virus spread, the estimated CFR of SARS actually went up as the outbreak went on, the result of already ill patients dying.

 

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/w-rtc012220.php


News Release 22-Jan-2020
Researchers trace Coronavirus outbreak in China to snakes
Wiley
Emerging viral infections--from bird flu to Ebola to Zika infections--pose major threats to global public health, and understanding their origins can help investigators design defensive strategies against future outbreaks. A new study provides important insights on the potential origins of the most recent outbreak of viral pneumonia in China, which started in the middle of December and now is spreading to Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, and Japan. The findings are published early online in the Journal of Medical Virology...

Full Citations:

"Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of the newly identified coronavirus may boost cross-species transmission from snake to human." Wei Ji, Wei Wang, Xiaofang Zhao, Junjie Zai, and Xingguang Li. Journal of Medical Virology; Published Online: January 22, 2020 (DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25682).

URL Upon Publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25682

"Global Health Concern Stirred by Emerging Viral Infections." Guangxiang (George) Luo and Shou-Jiang Gao. Journal of Medical Virology; Published Online: January 22, 2020 (DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25683).

URL Upon Publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25683

About Wiley

 

[Treyfish]

RIO DE JANEIRO (Sputnik) - The Brazilian authorities suspect a 35-year old female citizen who has recently returned from the Chinese city of Shanghai of being infected with a new strain of coronavirus, the health ministry of the Minas Gerais state said on Wednesday.

According to the ministry, on Tuesday, a medical center in the state capital of Belo Horizonte received "a patient, a female Brazilian citizen, 35 years old, who arrived from China (she was in Shanghai) to Belo Horizonte on 18 January, with symptoms of an acute respiratory viral infection."..:tiphat:https://sputniknews.com/world/20200...ith-coronavirus-from-china---health-ministry/

 

[sharon sanders]

Nightmare scenario. This is supposedly about Wuhan hospital. I am not there so I have no personal idea.


"There is a film" taking a sneak shot of the real situation of Wuhan Hospital is extremely chilling

4 hours ago


zhttp://hot.petonea.com/view2/4069

 

[sharon sanders]

RIO DE JANEIRO (Sputnik) - The Brazilian authorities suspect a 35-year old female citizen who has recently returned from the Chinese city of Shanghai of being infected with a new strain of coronavirus, the health ministry of the Minas Gerais state said on Wednesday.

According to the ministry, on Tuesday, a medical center in the state capital of Belo Horizonte received "a patient, a female Brazilian citizen, 35 years old, who arrived from China (she was in Shanghai) to Belo Horizonte on 18 January, with symptoms of an acute respiratory viral infection."..:tiphat:https://sputniknews.com/world/202001...alth-ministry/

Here is the Ministry of Health notice:


Suspected case for Coronavirus

January 22, 2020, 16:26
Updated on January 22, 2020, 17:00
About the suspected Coronavirus case, the Minas Gerais State Department of Health (SES-MG), informs:

On 01/21/2020, a 35-year-old Brazilian patient was identified at the UPA Centro Sul in Belo Horizonte, from China (was in Shanghai) and arrived in Belo Horizonte on 01/18, with respiratory symptoms, compatible with acute viral respiratory disease.

The case was notified as a suspect . In view of the current epidemiological context of the country where the patient was, the hypothesis of a disease caused by the new Coronavirus, which is an international health alert microorganism, was considered, considering the pandemic potential with high risk to life and assistance impact.

Despite not showing any sign of clinical severity , the patient was quickly taken to the HEM for careful observation in a hospital setting. The Eduardo de Menezes Hospital (HEM) was promptly activated by CIEVS-MG and CIEVS-BH and organized in a few minutes to receive the patient. All assistance measures to reduce the risk of transmission were taken .

This case has been reported as a suspect for Coronavirus and the patient is clinically stable and the case is still under investigation .

According to information that was passed on by the patient to CIEVS BH, she reported that she was not in the Wunhan region and that she also had no contact with a symptomatic person in China.

Tests that are able to confirm or rule out the diagnostic hypothesis are in progress in reference laboratories .

HEM is a state reference for the care of infectious diseases, public health emergencies and attention to health problems, and that for these cases, a fast and qualified response is required, with isolation in a specific area and careful clinical monitoring and test results,

Regional alerts

SES-MG informs that on 20/01/2020, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued the New Corononavirus Alert . According to the document, in view of the situation, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) advise Member States to strengthen surveillance activities to detect any unusual respiratory health events.

The SES-MG issued the alert to the regional health units, which will forward the guidance of WHO and PAHO to the municipalities in Minas Gerais.

http://www.saude.mg.gov.br/component...ra-coronavirus

 

[Okieman]

I do not believe the word "quarantine" has been used in reference to Wuhan by any official statements. I do not think they are attempting a quarantine since the virus has already spread significantly. What I do believe they are trying to accomplish is flatten out the curve in the rise in number of cases. The bulk of the cases (present and future) are at this point in Wuhan. If they can slow the spread any at all then it will buy them time to respond on a national scale. That said, this action will be very difficult for all concerned. But probably the wisest choice considering what would happen otherwise.

 

[sharon sanders]

Also - to all the members of 'Flublogia" - Welcome to FluTrackers!

You know...Flu Wiki, Effect Measure, Plan for Pandemic, CurEvents, Pandemic Forum Information, Readymoms. Us oldies remember all of you!

You Are Welcome Here.

We are about the same as you remember us. We are low key. Respect for all.

There is no organized posting. Everyone finds information that they think is interesting and they make the decisions where to post and how to present that information. In respect of copyright we only post a snip of any information in its original language unless we have permission. Also, no posting of graphs, maps, pictures without the originators approval.

Everything we know is posted publicly. We do not have a moderator's thread on this outbreak. There is no "members only" thread.

If we know it, you know it.

It would be really great if some of you would like to participate. A lot of experience and knowledge was lost when the other forums/blogs shut down.

Thank you very much!


:yinyang:

 

[sharon sanders]

I do not believe the word "quarantine" has been used in reference to Wuhan by any official statements. I do not think they are attempting a quarantine since the virus has already spread significantly. What I do believe they are trying to accomplish is flatten out the curve in the rise in number of cases. The bulk of the cases (present and future) are at this point in Wuhan. If they can slow the spread any at all then it will buy them time to respond on a national scale. That said, this action will be very difficult for all concerned. But probably the wisest choice considering what would happen otherwise.

Agree.

 

[Laidback Al]

This is truly unprecedented. Beijing might have quarantined approximately one million people at the peak of the 2003 SARS outbreak, but this would be an order of magnitude higher.

I'm assuming that most businesses will be shut down so that people don't have to work. I'm hoping the government has planned out logistics for how food and other supplies will get into the city; perhaps the military will be deployed to assist. Without sufficient supplies, quarantine won't work because the quarantined area will become viewed as a death trap that everyone wants to flee.

There really is no alternative. If this is not contained, we're going to have a pandemic with the transmissibility of flu and the CFR and treatment options of SARS. That's probably worse than even an H5N1 pandemic, as H5N1 has antivirals and perhaps eventually a vaccine.

I no longer think this virus is as mild as some of the reports portray it. The apparent CFR just seems low because most patients are still ill. Remember that although our estimate of the CFR of H1N1 dropped as the virus spread, the estimated CFR of SARS actually went up as the outbreak went on, the result of already ill patients dying.

We know it is spreading at a rapid rate and is easily transmissible among people. What we don’t know yet is the incubation period and just how virulent this coronavirus is. Obviously, a good estimate for the CFR has not yet been determined.

Hopefully more information about possible home treatment and isolation will be available for the people of Wuhan. Wuhan will be a test bed on how to control the spread of a transmissible disease in a very large city in the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century.

 

[Vibrant62]

We know it is spreading at a rapid rate and is easily transmissible among people. What we don’t know yet is the incubation period and just how virulent this coronavirus is. Obviously, a good estimate for the CFR has not yet been determined.

Hopefully more information about possible home treatment and isolation will be available for the people of Wuhan. Wuhan will be a test bed on how to control the spread of a transmissible disease in a very large city in the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century.

A slightly miserable thought has occurred to me, which is this. The links between China and Africa are extensive; specifically South Africa, India, Sri Lanka and a host of other third world nations. What are the odds that a case has not been exported already to one of these countries? And if we agree that this looks increasingly likely, what hope for containment and control there? With all the NGOs involved, the WHO can assist in containment efforts in one or two loci, not multiple ones. Example DRC and the Ebola outbreak which is still ongoing. So if this genie has indeed already escaped the bottle, the best we can hope for is a slowing down of the epidemic before it develops a global reach and aquires pandemic status. There will be no white night cavalry of a vaccine on the horizon; the best we can hope for a slightly slower onslaught. In the UK the NHS is on the brink of collapse already. There are no beds and no spare resources. Grim picture if the non medically assisted CFR is anything greater than 2% based on 1918 experience. So what can we do? Research to find possible interventions that may help, dig out any old documentation on social distancing etc. Any other ideas?

 

[Shiloh]

The links between China and Africa are extensive

Been on my mind as well. China also has a large presence as well in Ethiopia and Tanzania building infrastructure.

As far as quarantine...I agree they are trying to slow it down.

 

[Pathfinder]

Has anyone seen mentioned how long this "quarantine" is supposed to last? It's going to have an immense impact on the population regarding work and access it vital services. Don't believe a city that large has ever been quarantined in modern times.

No date. " Recovery time will be announced separately."


Of new pneumonia epidemic prevention and control headquarters in Shanghai

Published by Wuhan 01-23 02:39

Reading count: 5.19 million +

Notice of Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Infection

(No. 1)


In order to fully do a good job in the prevention and control of the pneumonia epidemic of the new type of coronavirus infection, effectively cut off the transmission of the virus, resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic, and ensure the safety and health of the people, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


From 10:00 on January 23, 2020, the city's urban bus, subway, ferry, and long-distance passenger transportation will be suspended; for no special reason, citizens should not leave Wuhan, and the airport and train station from the Han corridor will be temporarily closed.Recovery time will be announced separately.


The public and passengers are kindly requested to understand and support!


Pneumonia epidemic prevention and control headquarters of new coronavirus infection in Wuhan


January 23, 2020

 

[Readymom]

Also - to all the members of 'Flublogia" - Welcome to FluTrackers!

You know...Flu Wiki, Effect Measure, Plan for Pandemic, CurEvents, Pandemic Forum Information, Readymoms. Us oldies remember all of you!

You Are Welcome Here.

We are about the same as you remember us. We are low key. Respect for all.

There is no organized posting. Everyone finds information that they think is interesting and they make the decisions where to post and how to present that information. In respect of copyright we only post a snip of any information in its original language unless we have permission. Also, no posting of graphs, maps, pictures without the originators approval.

Everything we know is posted publicly. We do not have a moderator's thread on this outbreak. There is no "members only" thread.

If we know it, you know it.

It would be really great if some of you would like to participate. A lot of experience and knowledge was lost when the other forums/blogs shut down.

Thank you very much!


:yinyang:

Hello From 'ReadyMom' ... yes ... I'm still here, but lurking. Still advocating home preparedness, albeit via the internet/forums/etc. instead of in-person presentations. It's been a LONG time! Thanks all for the up-to-the-minute reporting. OUTSTANDING, as usual!!

 

[sharon sanders]

Thanks Readymom!

-------------------------------------


Face mask sales surge in HK, Macau rations supplies


2020-01-22 HKT 19:03


snip


In Macau, authorities said they would begin limiting the sale of masks after the government estimated that stocks would last for about 40 days.

Health officials said some 50 pharmacies connected to the government would only sell 10 masks to each person holding a Macau identity card. Buyers would not be allowed to get further masks from these shops for the next 10 days.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...0-20200122.htm

 

[hawkeye]

I know I’ve been away for awhile but want you all to know you are amazing and need to be recognized for all of your ongoing efforts. Nowhere else is such great and valuable trove of historical and current information available to the world at such an urgent time.

I’m very concerned about the travel restrictions in Wuhan. It is appearing as though it is becoming a forced quarantine.

It is now 8:15am in Wuhan and those living there are waking up to what may soon be a humanitarian nightmare.

 

[hawkeye]

Supposed video of Wuhan hospital.
https://mobile.twitter.com/IsChinar/...36308498149376

Wuhan flight arrives in Sydney:

https://mobile.twitter.com/7NewsPert...38006717222912

Tourists banned from leaving:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JahiroPol...45699565834240

Freeway blocked:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1220069758005121025

 

[Pathfinder]

Concerning the US case, according to the Washington State Department of Health:

"The person did not have symptoms while at SeaTac International Airport which would make transmission less likely."
https://publichealthinsider.com/2020...in-washington/

From Post #472 on the main thread:

The reporter asked: Is it contagious during the incubation period?

Academician Li Lanjuan: The incubation period may now also be contagious, so this point needs to be taken very seriously, because now I also understand the situation of some patients, the patients themselves do not have fever, and those who have contacted him in the early stage have fever. People may also have infections and fevers later.

(Li Lanjuan is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and serves as the director of the State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Lanjuan)

 

[alert]

Number of contacts under observation (quarantine?) in China now about 6000. That's still a little low for the number of suspected/confirmed cases. Toronto quarantined about that number at several points during its 2003 SARS outbreak. The number of actively ill (confirmed) cases in Wuhan in 2020 are about 10x what Toronto had at any time; I'd expect something like 60,000 contacts to be under observation, and that's even before the possibility of missed milder cases. Wondering also if regional/cultural differences might be in play; perhaps the typical person in China simply has contact with fewer people than the typical Canadian.

 

[sharon sanders]

hat tip Goju:


Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS

"The CAS has thirteen regional branches, in Beijing, Shenyang, Changchun, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Kunming, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Hefei and Xinjiang." link



Only one lab in China can safely handle the new coronavirus


By Nicoletta Lanese - Staff Writer 10 hours ago


As an escalating viral outbreak unfolds in China, only one lab in the country meets the required biosafety standards needed to study the new disease.

The lab happens to sit in the center of Wuhan, the city where the newly identified coronavirus first appeared, according to the Hindustan Times, an Indian news outlet. The facility, known as the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, is housed within the Chinese Academy of Sciences and was specifically designed to help Chinese scientists "prepare for and respond to future infectious disease outbreaks," according to a 2019 report published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

snip

Designated at Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4), the Wuhan lab can hold the world's most dangerous pathogens at maximum biocontainment levels.


more.....

https://www.livescience.com/china-la...ronavirus.html

 

[alert]

Apparently, one or two of the contacts of one of the confirmed cases in Hong Kong have been hospitalized with symptoms. The tweet below has been edited several times:

https://twitter.com/galileocheng/sta...55033162928128

(It's not clear whether these individuals made the entire trip with the patient, and thus might have had multiple contacts with him, or if they simply sat in the same train car. If it's the latter, and the man sitting 6 rows away from the patient is confirmed, this virus is fully airborne. Of course, it's also possible that something else made the other passenger sick.)