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Re: FluTrackers Invited to Washington D.C. to Media Session on H1N1
Re: FluTrackers Invited to Washington D.C. to Media Session on H1N1
Congratulations F1 on again getting the invite to 'help them help us' in Washington D.C.
The announcement (this thread) states that the purpose is " how the government can most efficiently and effectively disseminate information on the novel H1N1 influenza outbreak".
Disseminating information is one portion of a larger activity called communication. Efficient and effective communication depends upon sound knowledge of WHAT, WHY and 'to WHOM' (assumed to be the entire U.S. public by intent, and by extension, the world public). The WHAT is almost as broad as the 'to whom', and is a bit more complicated since it's a 'moving target'. Let's assume they want to cover the whole topic, from numeric and geographic spread data to threat indices, to recommendations for public precautions. Governments are bureaucracies which are endowed with authority over the public, and responsibility to the public. WHY they are doing what they are doing is often difficult to discern. Is it more to exert authority, or to dispatch responsibility? Since viruses are an autonomous, lawless sort which the government can not arrest (in both senses of the word
), let's assume that they are interested in 'the greatest good for the most people', while avoiding opprobrium and public outrage. So, the purpose behind the purpose of this meeting is to tell the people about a current health threat, and to direct their actions, to minimize the harm that results from this threat. If there is anything that we have learned in the past year or two, it should be the importance of the economy. Anything that affects the economy negatively, affects people negatively, and globally. Anything that threatens GDP, such as absenteeism, health care costs, education/training, pessimism in the stock market etc. drags the economy down. A poor economy can be disastrous to elected politicians and the rest of us too. To the leaders of our bureaucracy, H1N1 '09 swine influenza is at the very least a Triple Threat. 1) Public health problem. 2) Economic WMD. 3) Political wildcard. They recognize that they can't contain the disease, and nobody knows how bad it might get, so they want to know the best ways to communicate this to the public.
I think they already know the answer to the question (in terms of technology, demographics, costs, etc.), and are more interested in actually taking the first step (which is to get the main players together and 'on the same page' by inviting them to the discussion session with an appropriately enticing lead question). It seems appropriate for the government to take the lead, although I would like to someday see FluTrackers invite the other participants to THEIR table. LOL :applause: What the government is actually interested in is keeping their finger on the pulse of a public relations conundrum. They want to sense the tone of the subject to fine tune their approach to walk the knife-edge between alarmist and 'cover up conspiracy'. As such, I think that the most effective knob that they have at their disposal to set the tone, the 'how' is actually 'what' they focus on.
I see their primary goal at this point, as a challenge to get the greatest number of people to stock up on essentials (food, water, TP, etc.) in a time-distributed fashion that the existing infrastructure can handle. Human nature, for multiple reasons such as denial, procrastination, low resources, low self-discipline.... will avoid taking the threat seriously until the last minute. When they all try to prepare at once, the supply system collapses. So what is desired is a steady progression in an orderly and sustainable manner.
There is no perfect preparation, no definitive scenario, that 'if we do this' 100% of the population will be spared. There is only a spectrum of better and worse. Many people (waiting for the perfect solution) put off doing the things which will move us all (herd benefit from X% penetration of individual preparation) in the direction of BETTER. What they need is to be 'tipped' into activity. Sometimes even a flawed graphic (a simple intuitive appeal) can be of great utility. For example, if the government came out with a program asking people to prepare a 4-week supply of essentials, and then asked them to not all do it at once, only the people whose name ends in 'A' this week, and 'B' next week etc. I say flawed because even if followed exactly, we wouldn't all be prepared until 6-plus months, far too late for the anticipated 'H1N1 '09 swine' fall second wave. The value is that as the weeks roll past, more and more people are going to sense that they are slipping behind. Sure, many will remain in denial, but how many will take action who otherwise wouldn't have? Each week the media could find both overt and subliminal reminders that it is ( e.g. 'G' ) week.
The question is "what strings (inside people's minds) can the message (a simple graphic) pull, to get a greater percentage of people to take it seriously and make the 'adjustment reaction' that results in activity, without triggering a cascade (avalanche) that overwhelms the supply system." We all have to be somewhat oblivious to danger in the world around us to even function day-to-day. What I am advocating is to push the balance point away from cultural complacency, and toward personal creation of a 'buffer' of survival essentials. FluTrackers has a wealth of information on HOW to do exactly that.
To almost falsely create the atmosphere of scarcity, to 'prime the pump' of human nature's competitiveness until it out-weighs the human nature of 'essential obliviousness' is akin to setting a back-blaze to deprive a wildfire of fuel when it gets to that area. It is still 'playing with fire'. But in this instance, I think that it is a reasonable risk (like setting a back-blaze in a sandbox) because if it creates too much demand then it will be a great 'test run', pointing out weaknesses that need to be fixed, and the worst that can happen is 'inconvenience' compared to 'calamity' in the real event.
There are three possible outcomes; ineffective, effective, and over-effective.
a) If the media campaign is ineffective, then TPTB need to 'kick it up a notch'.
b) If it is perfectively effective, the supply infrastructure will be stressed ~16% above normal for ~ 26 weeks (A,B,C,D.... = 6 months).
(16% results from 4% of the population times 4 weeks of preps)
c) If it is over-effective, there will be localized and item-specific panic buying and hoarding, perhaps even enough to bolster the sagging economy. Unlike in the 'real event' however, it should be self-limiting since the motivation is mental decision-making based on Government and media recommendations, not over-crowding at the local morgue.
There are also multiple possible 'crossings' with the real event.
a) If the 'H1N1 '09 swine' second wave in the northern hemisphere never occurs, prepping still won't have been for nothing. Fire drills have value. Inconvenient? Yes. Expensive? Somewhat. Long term benefit? Priceless.
b) If the 'real event' does happen during this 'preparation campaign' then let's hope that it occurs later, not sooner. This virus gave us a 'Spring event' in '09, it may just repeat that performance in 2010. Or the event we are more ready for might be H9N2 or H5N1, or in 2011 or.......
c) The 'big event' may have already 'touched off' somewhere in the world already, in which case 'the scramble is on'. Why wait?
I see personal-level preparations as the most effective antidote to pandemic disease. It is more important than national, state, or community planning/stockpiles because its at the same level as the problem (grass roots). It is individuals who get sick and die, not bureaucracies. An extra supply of essentials can be used for social-distancing and/or for taking pressure off the system when the infrastructure frays. It's low-tech (a short and sturdy chain) so it's likely to work. If a severe pandemic occurs and vaccines/anti-virals ARE effective, then we will still need the personal preps. If a severe pandemic occurs and needed quantities of vaccines are not ready in time / anti-virals are not available or effective, then we will need personal preps even more.
The individual should not be asking what the nation/state/community is doing for them, but what they can do for the nation/state&community....and laying in a stock of food, drink, and survival necessities is what they can do.
To be able (prepared) to care for ourselves and those who do get sick, in a distributed manner (at home) and avoid spreading the disease by moving about in a public setting is the most sure way to 'cut the peaks off' the morbidity and mortality counts. I think the government and the media should encourage the public to 'tip' into making the 'adjustment reaction', and get busy with those preparations, by escalating the message until we achieve a 'herd immunity' to the frailties of our modern infrastructure.
I understand the pressure the government faces to be DOING something, and how strongly our modern culture clings to the idea that they can go on about their lives uninterrupted (just get the jab and go back to work, or to play) by relying on our science and medicine. I understand that the media in a capitalist society runs on selling copy to make a buck, and they focus on attracting people's attention any way they can. However, I think that they both have a responsibility to inform the public that there are things in the world that are BIGGER than us (humans). Bigger than our science, political structures and everything else that we pride ourselves on. Our 'advanced' medicine has given us a reprieve from some diseases, but has not conquered any of them, much less all of them. We (as a species) should still be equipped to 'hunker down' when 'Mother Nature' goes on a rampage, lest our collective hubris and daily-schedule-driven inertia amplifies both the rapidity of geographic spread and the 'attack rate' of the next influenza event ( or continuation of this one). Let's not get lost in the 'vaccine debate', and ignore contingency planning for production, distribution and disinfection of food and water. I think the public should be hearing less about possible school closings, and more about recalling retired truck drivers, police, utility maintenance workers etc. Less about how mild this strain of flu is (for now), and more about cross-training people from less-essential job functions to 'fill in' for people in highly-essential jobs if absenteeism runs way up. Articles on how to close off half of a house to conserve on heating fuel, and building of inexpensive (perhaps temporary) vestibules/doorways for heat retention and air-lock (germ-locks for sick rooms). How about running night classes (voluntary attendance) to bulk up skill pools on topics such as municipal water treatment, firefighting, operating communications equipment etc. Introduce mandatory classes in grade-schools on basic first aid, emergency preparedness, 'wilderness' survival, emerging infectious diseases. Topics that the next generation is really going to need to know, and they can bring it home to the rest of the family (who should have but didn't get it when they were in school). We as a country should be ashamed of the Katrina event more because it showed how complacent and unprepared we were than the multiple failures of Federal agencies to 'take up the slack'. I believe that all media formats can and should serve the country by educating the public, not just informing them. I like the bumper sticker I saw recently...... Personal Responsibility: Take it, It's yours ...........
///Read /// :magnify:
Re: FluTrackers Invited to Washington D.C. to Media Session on H1N1
Congratulations F1 on again getting the invite to 'help them help us' in Washington D.C.
The announcement (this thread) states that the purpose is " how the government can most efficiently and effectively disseminate information on the novel H1N1 influenza outbreak".
Disseminating information is one portion of a larger activity called communication. Efficient and effective communication depends upon sound knowledge of WHAT, WHY and 'to WHOM' (assumed to be the entire U.S. public by intent, and by extension, the world public). The WHAT is almost as broad as the 'to whom', and is a bit more complicated since it's a 'moving target'. Let's assume they want to cover the whole topic, from numeric and geographic spread data to threat indices, to recommendations for public precautions. Governments are bureaucracies which are endowed with authority over the public, and responsibility to the public. WHY they are doing what they are doing is often difficult to discern. Is it more to exert authority, or to dispatch responsibility? Since viruses are an autonomous, lawless sort which the government can not arrest (in both senses of the word
), let's assume that they are interested in 'the greatest good for the most people', while avoiding opprobrium and public outrage. So, the purpose behind the purpose of this meeting is to tell the people about a current health threat, and to direct their actions, to minimize the harm that results from this threat. If there is anything that we have learned in the past year or two, it should be the importance of the economy. Anything that affects the economy negatively, affects people negatively, and globally. Anything that threatens GDP, such as absenteeism, health care costs, education/training, pessimism in the stock market etc. drags the economy down. A poor economy can be disastrous to elected politicians and the rest of us too. To the leaders of our bureaucracy, H1N1 '09 swine influenza is at the very least a Triple Threat. 1) Public health problem. 2) Economic WMD. 3) Political wildcard. They recognize that they can't contain the disease, and nobody knows how bad it might get, so they want to know the best ways to communicate this to the public. I think they already know the answer to the question (in terms of technology, demographics, costs, etc.), and are more interested in actually taking the first step (which is to get the main players together and 'on the same page' by inviting them to the discussion session with an appropriately enticing lead question). It seems appropriate for the government to take the lead, although I would like to someday see FluTrackers invite the other participants to THEIR table. LOL :applause: What the government is actually interested in is keeping their finger on the pulse of a public relations conundrum. They want to sense the tone of the subject to fine tune their approach to walk the knife-edge between alarmist and 'cover up conspiracy'. As such, I think that the most effective knob that they have at their disposal to set the tone, the 'how' is actually 'what' they focus on.
I see their primary goal at this point, as a challenge to get the greatest number of people to stock up on essentials (food, water, TP, etc.) in a time-distributed fashion that the existing infrastructure can handle. Human nature, for multiple reasons such as denial, procrastination, low resources, low self-discipline.... will avoid taking the threat seriously until the last minute. When they all try to prepare at once, the supply system collapses. So what is desired is a steady progression in an orderly and sustainable manner.
There is no perfect preparation, no definitive scenario, that 'if we do this' 100% of the population will be spared. There is only a spectrum of better and worse. Many people (waiting for the perfect solution) put off doing the things which will move us all (herd benefit from X% penetration of individual preparation) in the direction of BETTER. What they need is to be 'tipped' into activity. Sometimes even a flawed graphic (a simple intuitive appeal) can be of great utility. For example, if the government came out with a program asking people to prepare a 4-week supply of essentials, and then asked them to not all do it at once, only the people whose name ends in 'A' this week, and 'B' next week etc. I say flawed because even if followed exactly, we wouldn't all be prepared until 6-plus months, far too late for the anticipated 'H1N1 '09 swine' fall second wave. The value is that as the weeks roll past, more and more people are going to sense that they are slipping behind. Sure, many will remain in denial, but how many will take action who otherwise wouldn't have? Each week the media could find both overt and subliminal reminders that it is ( e.g. 'G' ) week.
The question is "what strings (inside people's minds) can the message (a simple graphic) pull, to get a greater percentage of people to take it seriously and make the 'adjustment reaction' that results in activity, without triggering a cascade (avalanche) that overwhelms the supply system." We all have to be somewhat oblivious to danger in the world around us to even function day-to-day. What I am advocating is to push the balance point away from cultural complacency, and toward personal creation of a 'buffer' of survival essentials. FluTrackers has a wealth of information on HOW to do exactly that.
To almost falsely create the atmosphere of scarcity, to 'prime the pump' of human nature's competitiveness until it out-weighs the human nature of 'essential obliviousness' is akin to setting a back-blaze to deprive a wildfire of fuel when it gets to that area. It is still 'playing with fire'. But in this instance, I think that it is a reasonable risk (like setting a back-blaze in a sandbox) because if it creates too much demand then it will be a great 'test run', pointing out weaknesses that need to be fixed, and the worst that can happen is 'inconvenience' compared to 'calamity' in the real event.
There are three possible outcomes; ineffective, effective, and over-effective.
a) If the media campaign is ineffective, then TPTB need to 'kick it up a notch'.
b) If it is perfectively effective, the supply infrastructure will be stressed ~16% above normal for ~ 26 weeks (A,B,C,D.... = 6 months).
(16% results from 4% of the population times 4 weeks of preps)
c) If it is over-effective, there will be localized and item-specific panic buying and hoarding, perhaps even enough to bolster the sagging economy. Unlike in the 'real event' however, it should be self-limiting since the motivation is mental decision-making based on Government and media recommendations, not over-crowding at the local morgue.
There are also multiple possible 'crossings' with the real event.
a) If the 'H1N1 '09 swine' second wave in the northern hemisphere never occurs, prepping still won't have been for nothing. Fire drills have value. Inconvenient? Yes. Expensive? Somewhat. Long term benefit? Priceless.
b) If the 'real event' does happen during this 'preparation campaign' then let's hope that it occurs later, not sooner. This virus gave us a 'Spring event' in '09, it may just repeat that performance in 2010. Or the event we are more ready for might be H9N2 or H5N1, or in 2011 or.......
c) The 'big event' may have already 'touched off' somewhere in the world already, in which case 'the scramble is on'. Why wait?
I see personal-level preparations as the most effective antidote to pandemic disease. It is more important than national, state, or community planning/stockpiles because its at the same level as the problem (grass roots). It is individuals who get sick and die, not bureaucracies. An extra supply of essentials can be used for social-distancing and/or for taking pressure off the system when the infrastructure frays. It's low-tech (a short and sturdy chain) so it's likely to work. If a severe pandemic occurs and vaccines/anti-virals ARE effective, then we will still need the personal preps. If a severe pandemic occurs and needed quantities of vaccines are not ready in time / anti-virals are not available or effective, then we will need personal preps even more.
The individual should not be asking what the nation/state/community is doing for them, but what they can do for the nation/state&community....and laying in a stock of food, drink, and survival necessities is what they can do.
To be able (prepared) to care for ourselves and those who do get sick, in a distributed manner (at home) and avoid spreading the disease by moving about in a public setting is the most sure way to 'cut the peaks off' the morbidity and mortality counts. I think the government and the media should encourage the public to 'tip' into making the 'adjustment reaction', and get busy with those preparations, by escalating the message until we achieve a 'herd immunity' to the frailties of our modern infrastructure.
I understand the pressure the government faces to be DOING something, and how strongly our modern culture clings to the idea that they can go on about their lives uninterrupted (just get the jab and go back to work, or to play) by relying on our science and medicine. I understand that the media in a capitalist society runs on selling copy to make a buck, and they focus on attracting people's attention any way they can. However, I think that they both have a responsibility to inform the public that there are things in the world that are BIGGER than us (humans). Bigger than our science, political structures and everything else that we pride ourselves on. Our 'advanced' medicine has given us a reprieve from some diseases, but has not conquered any of them, much less all of them. We (as a species) should still be equipped to 'hunker down' when 'Mother Nature' goes on a rampage, lest our collective hubris and daily-schedule-driven inertia amplifies both the rapidity of geographic spread and the 'attack rate' of the next influenza event ( or continuation of this one). Let's not get lost in the 'vaccine debate', and ignore contingency planning for production, distribution and disinfection of food and water. I think the public should be hearing less about possible school closings, and more about recalling retired truck drivers, police, utility maintenance workers etc. Less about how mild this strain of flu is (for now), and more about cross-training people from less-essential job functions to 'fill in' for people in highly-essential jobs if absenteeism runs way up. Articles on how to close off half of a house to conserve on heating fuel, and building of inexpensive (perhaps temporary) vestibules/doorways for heat retention and air-lock (germ-locks for sick rooms). How about running night classes (voluntary attendance) to bulk up skill pools on topics such as municipal water treatment, firefighting, operating communications equipment etc. Introduce mandatory classes in grade-schools on basic first aid, emergency preparedness, 'wilderness' survival, emerging infectious diseases. Topics that the next generation is really going to need to know, and they can bring it home to the rest of the family (who should have but didn't get it when they were in school). We as a country should be ashamed of the Katrina event more because it showed how complacent and unprepared we were than the multiple failures of Federal agencies to 'take up the slack'. I believe that all media formats can and should serve the country by educating the public, not just informing them. I like the bumper sticker I saw recently...... Personal Responsibility: Take it, It's yours ...........
///Read /// :magnify:
LOL