I have no medical background other than first aid and first hand experience getting hurt. I have, however, gleaned what I think is the core of the 09 swine flu situation from reading your postings. I present it here as an ?answer? in this discussion section and ask the question ?did I get it right??
I like to condense matters to such essentials that to remove any more would materially misrepresent what is being presented. Then, having established a firm reference point, to protract the implications. Doing so prevents me from getting lost in the details as I can always go back to the beginning to get my direction again.
Only after I have the essence of the matter am I sure I can convey it to others without getting them lost or sidetracked.
Tell me if I have got no more and no less than the core of the situation.
Liam
Swine Flu, a Layman?s Viewpoint
1 The 2009 H1N1 swine flu (swine flu from now on) is a new virus in that almost no living persons have immunity to its present form.
2 The historically based expectation is that 33% of the world?s population will become ill from it over the course of its season.
A) Some people will die.
1) Deaths will result from the flu, from the bodies attempt to fight it, from other pre-existing medical conditions and from co-existing/opportunistic infections.
B) Those who recover will do so after a period of incapacitation.
3 The swine flu is not stable. It is changing.
A) As it changes it is possible to get it a second time.
B) The rate of change cannot be predicted, though it is expected to slow and become more stable.
C) The course of change cannot be predicted.
1) The virus can become more / less transmissible. People can become contagious for a longer or shorter period of time.
2) The virus can become more / less deadly.
3) The virus can become more / less severe in its symptoms.
4) The virus may infect for a longer or shorter period of time.
4 The swine flu can co-infect (dual infection). An animal (or person) can have more than one flu infection at the same time, or flu concurrent with another disease.
A) The virus can then trade parts of its make-up with a co-infecting virus like H5N1 (bird flu) which has a higher mortality rate.
1) The virus can take on (a, some, many) characteristics of the other the other virus.
5 The swine flu will be occurring in addition to the seasonal flu, at the same time. Seasonal flu will not take a season off.
A) Swine flu seems to infect age 0<60.
B) Seasonal flu generally is hardest on the oldest and youngest.
C) People may get none, one or both flu?s.
D) They may get them at the same time or one after the other.
E) Absenteeism may reasonably be expected to be much higher than normal.
1) If the flu season(s) spread out in time (best case) this may cause sporadic disruptions in services and deliveries.
2) If the swine flu peaks in a short period of time (as in 1918) it will cause severe disruptions due to absenteeism.
a) The disruptions in services and deliveries will cause life threatening conditions.
b) Disruptions of any kind may cause other disruptions to occur, to become worse or to come sooner. There may be a cascading effect.
c) Service and delivery disruptions will be accompanied by economic hardships.
d) Service and delivery disruptions may be followed by social unrest.
F) Medical services and product availability will be affected by absenteeism and by disruption of other services and deliveries.
I like to condense matters to such essentials that to remove any more would materially misrepresent what is being presented. Then, having established a firm reference point, to protract the implications. Doing so prevents me from getting lost in the details as I can always go back to the beginning to get my direction again.
Only after I have the essence of the matter am I sure I can convey it to others without getting them lost or sidetracked.
Tell me if I have got no more and no less than the core of the situation.
Liam
Swine Flu, a Layman?s Viewpoint
1 The 2009 H1N1 swine flu (swine flu from now on) is a new virus in that almost no living persons have immunity to its present form.
2 The historically based expectation is that 33% of the world?s population will become ill from it over the course of its season.
A) Some people will die.
1) Deaths will result from the flu, from the bodies attempt to fight it, from other pre-existing medical conditions and from co-existing/opportunistic infections.
B) Those who recover will do so after a period of incapacitation.
3 The swine flu is not stable. It is changing.
A) As it changes it is possible to get it a second time.
B) The rate of change cannot be predicted, though it is expected to slow and become more stable.
C) The course of change cannot be predicted.
1) The virus can become more / less transmissible. People can become contagious for a longer or shorter period of time.
2) The virus can become more / less deadly.
3) The virus can become more / less severe in its symptoms.
4) The virus may infect for a longer or shorter period of time.
4 The swine flu can co-infect (dual infection). An animal (or person) can have more than one flu infection at the same time, or flu concurrent with another disease.
A) The virus can then trade parts of its make-up with a co-infecting virus like H5N1 (bird flu) which has a higher mortality rate.
1) The virus can take on (a, some, many) characteristics of the other the other virus.
5 The swine flu will be occurring in addition to the seasonal flu, at the same time. Seasonal flu will not take a season off.
A) Swine flu seems to infect age 0<60.
B) Seasonal flu generally is hardest on the oldest and youngest.
C) People may get none, one or both flu?s.
D) They may get them at the same time or one after the other.
E) Absenteeism may reasonably be expected to be much higher than normal.
1) If the flu season(s) spread out in time (best case) this may cause sporadic disruptions in services and deliveries.
2) If the swine flu peaks in a short period of time (as in 1918) it will cause severe disruptions due to absenteeism.
a) The disruptions in services and deliveries will cause life threatening conditions.
b) Disruptions of any kind may cause other disruptions to occur, to become worse or to come sooner. There may be a cascading effect.
c) Service and delivery disruptions will be accompanied by economic hardships.
d) Service and delivery disruptions may be followed by social unrest.
F) Medical services and product availability will be affected by absenteeism and by disruption of other services and deliveries.
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