Re: Denmark - Dane with novel H1N1 found resistant to Tamiflu
In H5N1 it first appeared in patients being treated, but no hard evidence of spread.
Showed up in wild birds in Russia in summer of 2005, which may have led to first examples in H1N1 seasonal flu (clade 2C in China).
However it was still at low levels with a low reservoir and in 2006/2007 jumped to clade 1 in US and UK. Still at low level and still no real driver.
In 2007/2008 jumped again. This time to clade 2B and although some versions didn't expand (like Hawaii and Florida), it did take off in Europe and was discovered in Norway. Was at high levels in some countries (mostly northern Europe) and then paired up with A193T which became dominant in southern hemisphere in 2008.
This led to 100% levels in 2008/2009. All of this was done without Tamiflu pressure.
Swine flu however has a LARGE reservoir in seasonal H1N1 and now that swine has moved into human, this can lead to dual infections and a jump from human to swine. This will be VERY rapid because of the large reservoir in H1N1 and use of tamiflu, which will favor the jump from human to swine.
As a result, the resistance is starting to appear (Roche denials notwithstanding) and it is because H274Y in swine H1N1 is fit and can transmit WITHOUT tamiflu (but will move even faster with tamiflu, which will attack competing wildtype swine H1N1).
Thus, if the current patient was infected by H1N1 that already had H274Y, then it will spread very quickly, driven by the large seasonal flu pool of H274Y coupled with widespread use fo Tamiflu favoring jumps to swine flu and rapid transmission.
The virus knows EXACTLY what it is doing, even if drug makers / sequencers don't (and so far it is NO contest).
It will be MUCH easier to spread in swine flu.Dr. Niman: Given this comparison between H274K acquisition in H5N1 and seasonal H1N1, are you saying it may not follow the same 2-year spreading timeline as seasonal H1N1, i.e., started in 2006? and was present globally in 2008/2009 seasonal H1N1?
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In H5N1 it first appeared in patients being treated, but no hard evidence of spread.
Showed up in wild birds in Russia in summer of 2005, which may have led to first examples in H1N1 seasonal flu (clade 2C in China).
However it was still at low levels with a low reservoir and in 2006/2007 jumped to clade 1 in US and UK. Still at low level and still no real driver.
In 2007/2008 jumped again. This time to clade 2B and although some versions didn't expand (like Hawaii and Florida), it did take off in Europe and was discovered in Norway. Was at high levels in some countries (mostly northern Europe) and then paired up with A193T which became dominant in southern hemisphere in 2008.
This led to 100% levels in 2008/2009. All of this was done without Tamiflu pressure.
Swine flu however has a LARGE reservoir in seasonal H1N1 and now that swine has moved into human, this can lead to dual infections and a jump from human to swine. This will be VERY rapid because of the large reservoir in H1N1 and use of tamiflu, which will favor the jump from human to swine.
As a result, the resistance is starting to appear (Roche denials notwithstanding) and it is because H274Y in swine H1N1 is fit and can transmit WITHOUT tamiflu (but will move even faster with tamiflu, which will attack competing wildtype swine H1N1).
Thus, if the current patient was infected by H1N1 that already had H274Y, then it will spread very quickly, driven by the large seasonal flu pool of H274Y coupled with widespread use fo Tamiflu favoring jumps to swine flu and rapid transmission.
The virus knows EXACTLY what it is doing, even if drug makers / sequencers don't (and so far it is NO contest).