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https://www.latercera.com/nacional/...100-mil-contagios/LHTN6H5ZNRA55DTEGDLULLX6BY/
Covid-19 paralyzes Santiago and government prepares scenario of 100,000 infections
V. Castillo, O. Fern?ndez, R. Latorre and J. Matus
57 minutes ago
With 201 confirmed cases, 76% in the Metropolitan Region, the streets have been emptied. Metro rush hour traffic fell 47.5%, while shopping centers, gyms, squares, casinos, restaurants and clubs chose to close. Salud enlists 42 thousand beds and manages to rent hotels for quarantines.
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It made such an impression that the few passengers who used the service shared their photos on social media: empty stations, unoccupied platforms and carriages with just a handful of people. The Metro, as a "thermometer" of what is happening in the city, was revealed on Tuesday: the flow of passengers fell by half, accounting for the emptying of the streets of Santiago, a product of the quarantines and the fear it has instilled Covid-19 in the population.
According to the state, in the morning rush hour the influx was 669 thousand passengers, that is, 47.5% less compared to last Tuesday, when 1,277,465 people traveled at the same time. "There was a drop in demand, which is similar to the summer season, due to the call made to make (only) essential trips," said Transport Minister Gloria Hutt.
Transantiago buses, also with fewer passengers, saw the machines in circulation decrease, since almost 15% of drivers, 2,688 people, are in risk groups. "There has been less demand and we have adapted the operations program, reducing the frequency of buses by 18%," said Fernando Saka, director of Metropolitan Public Transport.
Carlos Melo, an academic at U. San Sebasti?n and former Undersecretary of Transport, added that passenger flows "have been reduced to levels prior to Transantiago (2007)".
The paralyzed city
With classes in the colleges and universities suspended, and thousands of people working from their homes - after a flexibilization of the labor modality was promoted - the main streets of the capital were emptied. So much so, that the busiest coffee shops and where customers often line up to buy, recorded the record of serving only one customer per hour.
The confirmation of 201 cases of Covid-19 at noon on Tuesday, with 76% in the Metropolitan Region, heightened the climate of insecurity and calls to tighten the measures and quarantines. Thus, the announcements of suspensions and closings followed one another: chains of gyms, parks and squares, bars and discotheques, gaming casinos and even amusement parks and roller coasters. Other venues, such as shopping malls and malls, chose to reduce their working hours, while the cinemas, with a drop in half the public, are operating with locked seats, to guarantee a safe separation between people.
The municipality of Providencia took stricter measures, decreeing the closure of the Costanera Center mall. In Las Condes, the council approved a change of ordinance to authorize the same action.
In restaurants, the first days of the call not to leave the house, unless it was essential, was noticeable: customers dropped by 80%. “The restaurants since Friday began to close. And this Tuesday they fell to 20% of regular customers. Also, people stopped going out at night permanently, ”says M?ximo Picallo, president of the Chilean Association of Gastronomy (Achiga).
The health plan
With 41 new cases, the Minister of Health, Jaime Ma?alich, announced that he is already working under a projection for the “worst” of cases: “We have prepared ourselves so that, at the same time, there are 100,000 patients. This does not mean 100,000 hospitalized, because 85% of these people will not require it, we are talking about a maximum of 15,000 people, simultaneously, requiring hospital and the sequence of intensive treatments. "
This scenario, he reiterated, should take place over the next eight to 12 weeks - between the end of April and the entire May-period when the contagion curve will peak. All in all, in the government they hope that Chile does not record the death rate of 3.3% that the Coronavirus has had in the world and that, given the early detection of cases, the case fatality rate is much lower and approaching low percentages. from countries such as Switzerland and South Korea, with rates between 0.6% and 0.8% .
Ma?alich highlighted the early research that is being carried out with the application of almost 1,200 daily tests, which could increase to 5,000 in the coming weeks. "We are communicating the number of new and total cases of coronavirus that is very close to reality. Therefore, the vast majority of cases are mild. We are sure, as foreign authorities have stated, that in other countries this capacity does not exist, and that there are a huge number of people who are ill and have not been detected by this condition, "said Ma?alich.
To cope with the emergency, the Undersecretariat of Assistance Networks plans to increase the total capacity of the public and private health network (38,000 beds) by a little more than 5,000 units, which will leave the network with more than 43 thousand places to admit patients.
Undersecretary Arturo Z??iga reiterated that with the accelerated opening of five hospitals in their final stage of construction - the new Felix Bulnes being the largest, in Cerro Navia - 1,762 beds will be added. Added to the above are three modular hospitals, which will add 500 more, the field hospital in the Bicentennial Park of Cerrillos and the lease of Espacio Riesco, which would enable 800 beds.
Ma?alich also announced that the rental of hotels is being managed for those who need isolation and cannot do so at home.
State of catastrophe?
Faced with the international scene and the rise in infections, various experts suggest that measures should be tightened. The infectologist from the U. de Chile Miguel O’Ryan supports “that people stay at home. It is an intense strategy that China and many European countries have adopted now, in order to flatten the curve with social distancing. ”
The national secretary of the Medical College, Jos? Miguel Bernucci, says that the union's position is that a “lock down” or blockade of the communes or cities be applied, as occurred in some Asian countries: “In Chile we are already in a level in which the commerce, the spaces, like cinemas or restaurants, must suspend their activities. This leads to less circulation of people who are a source of contagion. The case of Italy must be looked at, because today it is paying the consequences. ”
In case the spread of the virus gets out of control, already several countries like Italy and Spain have completely restricted the mobility of people with states of emergency. In Chile, the most similar thing to that would be to enact a state of catastrophe, a scenario that is in the battery of measures available to La Moneda.
The constitutional lawyer Gabriel Osorio asked via Twitter that President Pi?era "dictate a State of Emergency Constitutional Exception and a curfew throughout the country." Consulted by La Tercera, Osorio said that the options are the state of catastrophe and emergency, those that have been used before in earthquakes and after the outbreak of October 18.
The Constitution, in its article 43, establishes that in the state of catastrophe, the President may “restrict the freedoms of transportation and assembly”, in addition to requesting requisitions for property and limiting the exercise of the right to property. "In a state of catastrophe you can requisition products, for example, if the flour is no longer available, but you know that there is a warehouse with tons of flour, you can requisition that and distribute it to the population. Then you have to pay it ”, explains the constitutional lawyer Patricio Zapata.
