• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Avian flu H5N1 discussion - news/case lists links - 2022+

Avian Influenza in Cats Is Not Getting the Attention it Deserves, UMD Researchers Warn

​20-Year Review Underscores Need for Better Surveillance to Protect Cats, Humans
By Fid Thompson May 09, 2025

More surveillance of domestic cats is “urgently needed” amid a steep recent increase in feline H5N1 avian influenza infections, according to University of Maryland public health researchers who conducted a sweeping literature review on the illness in cats.

The study, which spanned data on bird flu in cats from 2004-24, was published Wednesday in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. Though the disease is not passed human-to-human right now, public health authorities say the emerging threat of a human pandemic is intensified by increased contact between infected animals and humans, which increases the likelihood of a mutation that would allow such transmission.

“The virus has evolved, and the way that it jumps between species—from birds to cats, and now between cows and cats, cats and humans—is very concerning. As summer approaches, we are anticipating cases on farms and in the wild to rise again,” said the study’s lead and senior author Dr. Kristen Coleman, assistant professor in UMD School of Public Health’s Department of Global, Environmental and Occupational Health and affiliate professor in UMD’s Department of Veterinary Medicine.

“Bird flu is very deadly to cats, and we urgently need to figure out how widespread the virus is in cat populations to better assess spillover risk to humans,” she said. “We want to help protect both people and pets.”

continued: https://today.umd.edu/avian-influen...he-attention-it-deserves-umd-researchers-warn
 
Spring 2025

A magazine for friends of the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University: How can health systems prepare for the potential spread of avian flu?



Ask the Expert: Leonard Mermel

Ever since the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 first emerged in 1996, it’s “haunted” infectious diseases expert Leonard Mermel, DO, ScM, he says. As it spread from birds to mammals, including humans—and killed about half of the people who contracted it—he couldn’t help but think of the 1918 flu. “Humanity may well be on the brink of the next great pandemic and we are scantily clad to protect ourselves from a virus that will surely thin the herd,” he wrote in The Lancet in 2005. Two decades later, Mermel, a professor of medicine (and a drummer), is still beating the same drum. “I’m either Chicken Little or Paul Revere,” he says. “I hope the former, but if the latter, I want to get the word out.”

The current outbreak, which began in 2021, is infecting more and more mammals. It’s killed big cats in zoos, elephant seals in South America, farmed mink, pet cats, and many others. It’s infecting cows and spreading to farm workers. So, it’s undergone genetic changes that have allowed it to adapt to live in a mammal. We’ve had a few human cases where the CDC did a deep investigation and didn’t find the source—no exposure to farm animals, didn’t have backyard birds, didn’t drink raw milk. Well, where did they get it? We don’t know. Based on a dramatic reduction in funding and personnel in public health at the federal and state level, there may be reduced case finding and underreporting, making it more difficult to determine if this virus is spreading in communities around the US.

For bird flu to fully adapt and then spread person to person, there has to be a genetic change where it preferentially binds to human airway cell receptors. There was a Science article published Dec. 5, 2024, that was somewhat frightening, demonstrating that a single mutation could lead to that. Other changes are needed; it has to survive in and exit the infected human cells. I’m not a virologist, but if that happened, I believe we would certainly have a human pandemic.

As the medical director of the Department of Epidemiology and Infection Control for Brown University Health, I’m very fortunate that our administration is willing to listen to my concerns. We have been meeting weekly as a health care system, addressing various issues regarding pandemic preparedness. Hospitals need to think about, what are their stockpiles of personal protective equipment, stockpiles of antiviral agents? What would be their staffing plans? How would they accommodate an increased volume of patients seeking care as we experienced with COVID?

You don’t want to get the public riled up—I’m sensitive to that. But they need to know what’s really going on and we need to find that equipoise. It’s hard in human nature to plan for the worst-case scenarios. But they’re possible, and that’s the problem with our just-in-time mentality, particularly in the US. I think we’re on the precipice. But have we learned the lessons of COVID?


https://medicine.at.brown.edu/how-can-health-systems-prepare-for-the-potential-spread-of-avian-flu/
 
Why we should seriously consider vaccinating wild birds to control bird flu

By Lynn C. Klotz | May 14, 2025
...
It’s infected nearly 500 species of wild birds and mammals ranging from foxes to zoo tigers. It’s time to consider another means of stopping its spread: vaccinating wild birds and, perhaps, other wildlife. By doing so, we will rescue large numbers of animals from a painful death, slow the transmission of infections, and reduce the probability of a pandemic in humans. These outcomes provide reason enough to vaccinate wildlife.
...
How to vaccinate wild birds. Birds like snow geese, which congregate in large numbers, are ideal targets for mass vaccination. They breed during the summers in the arctic and fly south to the United States and as far as Mexico in the winter. Snow geese have turned up infected at several sites in the United States, some of the more than 400 species of wild bird to be affected by H5N1.

The World Organization for Animal Health, an intergovernmental organization, suggested in 2023 that it won’t be easy to vaccinate wild birds: “[W]ide-scale bird flu vaccination of free-ranging wild bird populations is typically considered impractical with currently available vaccination strategies,” a committee report reads. That agency and the Food and Agriculture Organization, a UN agency, called vaccinating wild birds an “urgent research priority.”

The Cornell Wildlife Health Lab points to some of the challenges facing any mass wildlife vaccination campaign: “Before a wildlife vaccine can be used in populations of wild animals, a great deal of research must be done to determine the safest and most effective vaccine, the most palatable bait formulation, and the best cost-effective distribution method [but] oral vaccination of wildlife holds great promise in limiting the public health, agricultural industry, and conservation consequences of diseases that circulate within wildlife.”

This effort will be worth it to protect wild birds, domestic poultry, and other species. Indeed, researchers have already vaccinated at least one wild bird species, the endangered California condor.
...
https://thebulletin.org/2025/05/why...r-vaccinating-wild-birds-to-control-bird-flu/
----------------------------------
See also:
US - The race to protect endangered condors against deadly bird flu
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...t-endangered-condors-against-deadly-bird-flu​
 
Russia -

Translation Google


May 21, 2025, 00:01

Contagious with fur: Bird flu in cats threatens the world with a new pandemic

How likely is it that another strain dangerous to humans will emerge?


Denis Gritsenko

Highlight the main points Off

The bird flu virus from cats, which are now suffering from this infection en masse, is highly likely to spread to humans and cause a dangerous epidemic comparable to smallpox , Alexander Ginzburg, director of the Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, told Izvestia.

According to the specialist, in case of such a development, a prototype vaccine should be created in the country, the production of which could be quickly established if necessary . According to other scientists, animals can indeed serve as a convenient reservoir for the formation of new H5N1 strains that are dangerous to humans, but overcoming the interspecies barrier is a difficult task for the pathogen . It will probably be easier for the virus to approach humans through birds and pigs than through cats. Read more about the new threat in the Izvestia article.

The virus is more dangerous than smallpox

The probability of the bird flu virus spreading from cats, which are now being infected en masse in the US and Europe, to humans is very high , Alexander Ginzburg, director of the Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, told Izvestia. Given the infectiousness and severe clinical manifestations of this pathogen, the epidemic it causes could be comparable to outbreaks of smallpox , the scientist said. Therefore, Russia needs to create a prototype vaccine against H5N1.

— We need a prototype of this vaccine . It must pass the first and second stages of clinical trials against the strain that is very likely to be transmitted not only between animals, but also from person to person. The fatality rate there is 50-70%, and with airborne transmission, smallpox will seem like a toy compared to what can happen as a result of one or two mutations , — said Alexander Gintsburg.

A ready prototype of the vaccine should be available in case such a strain spreads in our country or other countries, so that within three to four weeks it would be possible to develop a drug for the whole of Russia and introduce it into civil circulation . However, such work is not currently being conducted at the Gamaleya Center and there is no single state program that would unite the capabilities of developers and manufacturers of a promising vaccine , he added.

Epidemiologists have noted the active spread of the bird flu virus among cats in Europe and the United States this spring . According to the European Food Safety Authority, more animals were exposed to the virus in the first three months of 2025 than in the previous nine months . Cats usually become ill by eating infected poultry or eggs. Infections have been reported in poultry farms in Belgium, causing paralysis, ataxia, and other severe symptoms. The animals had to be euthanized . Similar cases have been identified in Iceland and Norway. A similar situation is developing in the United States.

The danger of the spread of the H5N1 virus among cats for humans is that animals serve as an excellent reservoir for the emergence of new strains of the pathogen that will be capable of being transmitted to humans , noted Mikhail Bolkov, a researcher at the Institute for the Study of Aging of the Russian Gerontological Research and Clinical Center of the Russian National Research Medical University named after N.I. Pirogov of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation.

— The flu virus moves between animals and humans cyclically. When in animals, it can change its antigenicity because they are sick with different strains than humans, and if different variants end up in one cell, a new genome can be assembled from different components. Flu viruses have a segmented genome, he told Izvestia.

Cats have become an indicator of the spread of the virus among mammals. It is impossible to stop this process, and all that remains is to observe and prepare for possible problems , the specialist emphasized.

Epidemic among mammals

Researchers in the UK call the extent of bird flu’s spread around the world a mammalian panzootic that could contribute to human infection . They cite confirmed cases of mammal-to-mammal transmission on European fur farms, among marine animals in South America, and in dairy cattle in the US. They say that by early April this year, 70 human cases of bird flu had been reported in the US. Of these, 41 were linked to dairy herds, 24 to poultry farming, and two to interactions with other animals. The sources of three other infections remain unknown .

Experts estimate that H5N1 currently has a much lower potential for transmission than previous human flu subtypes that have caused pandemics or seasonal outbreaks . And the virus is still poorly transmitted from person to person, although agricultural workers who frequently come into contact with animals remain at risk.

It will be difficult for the H5N1 virus to overcome the interspecies barrier, although it has a high potential for mutations . If it is able to infect humans, it will most likely happen not through cats, but through birds or pigs , Elena Malinnikova, head of the virology department at the Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education of the Russian Ministry of Health, told Izvestia.

— In terms of overcoming the interspecies barrier, bird flu from birds and pigs is closer to humans than from cats. But such a transfer of infection is very difficult. At the same time, flu viruses have a very high potential, because their RNA is not folded into a spiral, but has eight separate fragments. And they are characterized by reassortment — “mixing” of different variants inside the cell. They can really be transmitted from one species to another . In 2009, a triple reassortant appeared — pandemic H5N1, which infected birds, pigs, and humans. But there is no pathogen that could pass to people from cats yet, and specialists are not currently considering this possibility , — the expert said.

If the bird flu virus manages to overcome the interspecies barrier and infect humans, it will be able to actively spread among people, but it is unlikely to have a catastrophically high mortality rate or symptoms comparable to smallpox , added Stanislav Otstavnov, head of the laboratory for the analysis of population health indicators and digitalization of healthcare at MIPT.

https://iz.ru/1889349/denis-gritcen...oshek-ugrozhaet-epidemiej-huzhe-chernoj-ospy​
 
H5N1 in U.S. Dairy Cattle: An Unprecedented Event in the History of Virology

​ 5 June 2025​

by Fabrício Souza Campos

Fabrício Souza Campos is a virologist and professor at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil. He coordinates the Graduate Program in Agricultural and Environmental Microbiology and leads research on virus surveillance in wildlife and domestic animals, with a focus on zoonotic threats and One Health. He has worked on projects ranging from Antarctica to the Amazon, combining field ecology, molecular diagnostics, and genomic analysis.


Influenza A viruses are classified based on the antigenic properties of two surface glycoproteins: hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). There are 18 known HA subtypes and 11 NA subtypes, and their combinations give rise to multiple influenza A subtypes, such as H1N1 and H5N1. Among these, H5N1 is a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, historically associated with severe disease and high mortality in birds, as well as occasional zoonotic transmission to humans.

Initially known for devastating poultry outbreaks, H5N1 gained global attention in 1997 when it caused human infections in Hong Kong. Between 2003 and 2006, it expanded across Asia, Europe, and Africa, affecting both domestic and wild bird populations. The evolution of H5N1 has been characterized by the emergence of distinct genetic clades, classified according to the hemagglutinin (HA) gene phylogeny. In response, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) established a standardized nomenclature system, initially defining ten major clades (0–9). Among them, clade 2.3.4 subsequently diversified into subclade 2.3.4.4, noted for its enhanced adaptability and ability to spread globally.

-snip-


The incident highlights a broader challenge: the interplay between epidemiology and policy. In the U.S., the Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides financial compensation to producers for poultry losses in the event of HPAI outbreaks. While this ensures rapid compliance with depopulation protocols, it may unintentionally reduce incentives for rigorous biosecurity implementation. This phenomenon, often described as “moral hazard,” reflects a systemic weakness wherein reimbursement can displace responsibility. In such cases, even the most advanced infrastructure cannot compensate for gaps in institutional coordination and risk accountability.

In contrast, Brazil—operating with more limited economic resources and without a national compensation program—managed to contain a 2025 outbreak of H5N1 in commercial poultry in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul. The response was led by the Brazilian Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), the State Center for Health Surveillance (CEVS/RS), and the National Laboratory for Agricultural Defense of Brazil (LANAGRO). These agencies swiftly coordinated field surveillance, culling, sanitary barriers, and tracing protocols. In the absence of financial indemnification, Brazilian producers may have been more vigilant, knowing that failure to act could result in irrecoverable economic losses. To date, the virus remains restricted to avian species in Brazil.

The contrast between the U.S. and Brazilian responses reveals an important insight: effective outbreak control depends not only on scientific capability or funding, but also on well-aligned incentives, clear governance, and cultural attitudes toward biosecurity. It raises a thought-provoking question: can the United States learn something from Brazil’s approach?

https://virology.ws/2025/06/05/h5n1...precedented-event-in-the-history-of-virology/
 
BirdCast Forecasts and Alerts are back online
May 28, 2025

Update: 28 May, 10am ET. The technical issues with the migration forecasts and alerts have now been resolved. Thank you for your patience as we worked through various fixes.

Additionally, we would like to highlight, since some have noticed, that Canada is still not included in our BirdCast coverage despite the appearance of recent graphics. Though we have been exploring partnerships for several years to collaborate with our Canadian colleagues, any current graphics showing coverage in Canada are related only to the technical issues rather than to new data or a new product.

Please note, when viewing migration forecasts, you may need to force a refresh of your browser to see graphics appear in their most up to date form.

Google Chrome
Windows users: hold down Ctrl and then press F5 on your keyboard
Mac users: hold down Cmd and Shift and then press R on your keyboard

Firefox
For Windows users: hold down Ctrl and then press F5 on your keyboard
Mac users: hold down ? Cmd and ? Shift and then press R on your keyboard

Safari
Go to Safari > Empty Cache, or hit Opt + Cmd + E
To refresh, click the refresh button on the address bar or press Cmd + R

https://birdcast.info/news/birdcast-forecasts-and-alerts-temporarily-unavailable/


Live bird migration maps
See real-time analysis maps of intensities of actual nocturnal bird migration, as detected by the US weather surveillance radar network between local sunset to sunrise. Cornell Lab of​ Ornithology currently produces these maps

​​​​​​​June 4, 2025
Screenshot 2025-06-05 at 4.48.59 PM.png

https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/


 
Bald eagle infected with bird flu successfully rehabbed, released back into wild

By Jordan BowenPublished June 9, 2025 6:02 am EDT

The Brief
-The Raptor Center of Tampa Bay is one of the first organizations to successfully rehab a bird infected with bird flu.
-The male juvenile bald eagle spent 59 days in rehab before being released.
-His sister, who was infected with bird flu, died just two hours after being rescued.
...
Because of the female's symptoms, they were preparing to euthanize her, but she died before they could. Both tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza. However, the male was asymptomatic, so Murrah reached out to U.S. Fish and Wildlife for guidance.

"They had advised us that they would euthanize a bird because of the difficulty of dealing with isolation," Murrah said.

But Murrah says she and her team saw an opportunity to try and save this bird because, although he tested positive for bird flu, he wasn't showing any symptoms that would cause him pain.

"For us, we had an asymptomatic bird, very bright-eyed, very active in the cage, good body weight. And like I said, had I not tested him, you wouldn't have thought he had anything wrong with him," Murrah said.

After a 33-day quarantine, Murrah says he tested negative, but just to be sure, they tested him again after a week and a half, and he was still negative. He spent the next 21 days in a 100-foot-high flight cage until he reached proper body weight to be released back into the wild.
...

https://www.fox13news.com/news/bald-eagle-infected-bird-flu-successfully-rehabbed-released-back-wild
 
With AI, Researchers Find Increasing Immune Evasion in H5N1

June 20, 2025
...
Los Angeles, Calif.—The H5N1 avian influenza virus has infected birds and mammals around the world. As of June 2025, 70 people have been infected, and 1 person has died in the United States. A new analysis suggests that the virus is evolving clever strategies. Using artificial intelligence tools, researchers at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNCC) analyzed thousands of viral proteins and found that their bonds to protective antibodies have weakened over time.

Newer versions of the virus have improved their ability to evade the natural defenses of the human immune system. “The virus has certainly mutated away from what we saw a decade ago,” said UNCC computational biologist Colby T. Ford, Ph.D., who led the study. “They don't even look the same.”

These adaptations increase the pandemic potential of the virus, he said, and candidate vaccines developed 10 years ago may not be efficacious against the contemporary strains of the virus. “This has the potential to be bad.”​
...
https://asm.org/press-releases/2025/june/with-ai,-researchers-find-increasing-immune-evasio
 
California Uses Multipronged Approach Against Avian Flu

​JULY 3, 2025
By Marcus A. Banks

California has responded to the ongoing avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak by monitoring human and animal activities, testing wastewater and raw milk, and even testing for the virus in cats, said its public health laboratory director Anthony Tran, DrPH, MPH, D(ABMM). Speaking at the ASM Microbe 2025 meeting, in Los Angeles, Dr. Tran said this was the first time that a One Health approach to infectious disease management has been incorporated into a statewide emergency response.


There have been 70 confirmed U.S. human cases of H5N1 since April 2024, Dr. Tran explained.

“We’ve taken the lion’s share of that here in California,” Dr. Tran pointed out, with 38 confirmed and one probable case. Most U.S. cases are mild, he noted, but there have been four hospitalizations and one death.

Dr. Tran said California is the state with the largest agricultural industry in the United States, with confirmed cases of H5N1 in more than 766 cattle herds. California public health officials quarantined those herds to prevent infected milk from entering the food supply. As of the ASM Microbe meeting, Dr. Tran said more than 80% of the herds were removed from quarantine once H5N1 was no longer detected in milk from cows in the herd.

“This actually meshed a lot with data we had seen from other states, with the—pun intended—herd immunity of the cattle being infected and then leveling off in terms of immunity from H5N1,” Dr. Tran remarked.

He also noted that 37 human avian influenza cases (36 confirmed cases and one probable case) in California were in farmworkers, suggesting some cattle-to-human transmission as farmworkers handled infected milk. The hemagglutinin protein on H5N1 binds to receptors that allow for interspecies transmission, Dr. Tran said (Cell2025;188[4]:919-929.e9).

As H5N1 cases in cattle stabilized, evidence of the virus also began to decline in wastewater.

“This [wastewater surveillance] is not only an early warning system, we feel, but it coincided at this time with what was actually happening in the cattle,” Dr. Tran said.

Wastewater surveillance capacity was relatively straightforward to increase, Dr. Tran noted, by making this a focus at the state’s own laboratories and partnering with private industry. Testing for H5N1 in raw milk was harder, he acknowledged, as there are no established protocols for public health laboratories doing this. Raw milk is allowed to be produced and sold within California state lines, Dr. Tran said, causing some of his colleagues to proactively test for H5N1 in raw milk supplies. The FDA does not allow sale of raw milk across state lines because it could be contaminated, Dr. Tran noted.

Given the lack of standard protocols for testing for H5 in milk at public health laboratories, the first protocol was for influenza A virus in general, and the state now has an H5-specific subtyping assay. This work led to several raw milk recalls in California in November and December 2024.

“We have also started to find H5N1 in cats,” noted Dr. Tran, as further evidence of the state’s One Health approach to surveillance. Cats are also susceptible to H5N1 from raw milk or food.

If a cat with an encephalitic neurologic illness potentially indicating flu dies and tests negatively for rabies, public health officials then test for H5N1. Thus far, this has yielded 21 cases of confirmed H5N1 infection in domestic cats. Detection of H5N1 infection in cats is considered a potential harbinger of a larger influenza problem.

Dr. Tran said California plans to continue intensive H5N1 surveillance.

https://www.idse.net/Influenza/Arti...Approach-Against-Avian-Flu&utm_medium=Twitter
 
We have documented 24 [HASHTAG="c2811"]H5N1[/HASHTAG] cats in California. The difference of 3 is nothing. Close enough because the actual number is probably much higher by dozens or hundreds. Imho, based on the late reporting of how saturated California was with H5N1 at the end of 2024.

hat tip Pathfinder:

California Contra Costa 12/30/2024 04/04/2025 EA H5 Domestic cat
California Contra Costa 01/16/2025 04/02/2025 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Contra Costa 01/16/2025 04/02/2025 EA H5N1 Domestic cat​
​California Shasta 12/11/2024 03/14/2025 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Imperial 01/22/2025 02/20/2025 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California San Mateo 01/29/2025 02/05/2025 EA H5 Domestic cat
California Contra Costa 01/15/2025 01/24/2025 EA H5 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 01/08/2025 01/15/2025 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 01/08/2025 01/15/2025 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/14/2024 01/03/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/14/2024 01/03/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/10/2024 01/03/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/11/2024 01/03/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/10/2024 01/03/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Santa Barbara 12/17/2024 01/02/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Santa Barbara 12/12/2024 01/02/2025 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/26/2024 12/31/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/26/2024 12/31/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/06/2024 12/27/2024 EA/AM H5N1 Domestic cat
California Los Angeles 12/10/2024 12/23/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Fresno 12/09/2024 12/17/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California San Bernardino 12/04/2024 12/10/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat
California Tulare 11/22/2024 12/03/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat

California Contra Costa 12/11/2024 06/16/2024 EA H5N1 Domestic cat

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...us-h5n1-avian-flu-in-domestic-cats-list/page3

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/mammals
 
The H5N1 Wake-Up Call: Why Cornell’s Latest Numbers Should Change Everything You Think You Know About Dairy Biosecurity

​Sunday, July 13th, 2025​
Cornell just proved H5N1 costs $950 per infected cow—while most producers still think it’s just a bird problem.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Look, I’ve been digging through Cornell’s latest H5N1 study, and honestly? Most producers are sleepwalking into a financial disaster. The real kicker isn’t that H5N1 costs $950 per infected cow—it’s that 76% of infected animals show zero symptoms while silently wrecking your operation. California just proved this with their 6.8% production drop in December 2024, forcing Governor Newsom to declare a state emergency after 645 dairies got hit. The math is brutal: a 500-cow operation looking at potential losses of $475,000 if this thing spreads through your herd. What’s happening globally right now is a shift from reactive crisis management to proactive biosecurity—and the producers getting ahead of this are positioning themselves for serious competitive advantages. You need to start treating your milking parlor like a controlled environment this week, not when H5N1 shows up at your neighbor’s place.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • Milking parlor biosecurity cuts transmission by 90% – Start with between-milking disinfection protocols using accelerated hydrogen peroxide systems, focus on stainless steel surfaces where the virus survives 72 hours, and you’ll prevent the $950 per cow losses that are crushing unprepared operations in 2025’s volatile market.
  • Silent carriers are destroying operations invisibly – Implement daily bulk tank RT-PCR testing to catch infections 24-48 hours before clinical symptoms appear, because Cornell’s data shows most infected cows never show visible signs while shedding virus for three weeks straight.
  • Pennsylvania’s proactive approach beats California’s reactive crisis – Invest in mandatory surveillance systems now (60-90 days before fall migration peaks) to maintain virus-free status and capture market premiums that are running $1.20+ per hundredweight above affected regions.
  • Technology ROI justifies investment for 1,000+ cow operations – Real-time milk RNA monitoring systems detect infections immediately, enabling rapid isolation protocols that prevent bulk tank contamination and the catastrophic herd-wide spread that’s devastating California’s Central Valley.
  • Fall migration window demands immediate action – July through September is your critical preparation period before seasonal wild bird movement increases transmission risk, so get your enhanced biosecurity protocols operational before the virus finds your operation instead of you finding it first.
​You know what’s been keeping me up at night since I got my hands on Cornell’s latest economic impact study? The numbers are… well, let’s just say if you’re not taking H5N1 seriously yet, you’re about to.

I’ve spent the last few weeks digging through the real data—not the rumors floating around at co-op meetings or the half-baked speculation in farm forums—but the actual peer-reviewed research and verified government reports. What I found is both more alarming and more manageable than most of the chatter suggests.

Here’s the thing, though: we need to stop treating H5N1 like it’s some distant threat that only affects “those other farms.” It’s here, it’s spreading faster than anyone predicted, and if you’re not prepared… well, let’s just say the math isn’t pretty.

The Cornell Numbers That Should Terrify Every Producer

Dr. Daryl Nydam’s team at Cornell just dropped their comprehensive economic analysis, and the headline figure is absolutely brutal: $950 per clinically affected cow in direct economic losses. Not the $504 figure that’s been floating around some industry circles—$950. Per cow.

According to recent work from Cornell’s veterinary college, that’s based on tracking a 3,900-cow operation in Ohio through 67 days of what can only be described as H5N1 hell. But here’s what really gets me… that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

The infected cows lost approximately 900kg of milk over 60 days following the outbreak. But—and this is the kicker that’s got me genuinely concerned—significant production drops persisted well beyond clinical recovery. Some producers I’ve been talking to in the Central Valley are calling them “zombie cows.” Animals that technically survive but never get back to their genetic potential.

Think about that for a second. You’re not just dealing with acute losses during the outbreak—you’re looking at long-term impacts on herd productivity that extend far beyond what most insurance programs cover. This development is fascinating from a scientific perspective, but terrifying from a business standpoint.

​Continued: https://www.thebullvine.com/news/th...g-you-think-you-know-about-dairy-biosecurity/
 
Excerpt from Post #166 above:


Implementation Timeline That Actually Makes Sense

Here’s where I want to get practical for a minute. Based on what I’m seeing work across different regions, there’s a logical 90-day implementation timeline that makes sense:

Days 1-30: Critical Foundation Get your milking parlor biosecurity protocols in place. This means between-milking disinfection, dedicated equipment that never leaves the parlor, and basic PPE compliance. Don’t overthink it—just start with the basics that work.

Days 31-60: Surveillance Systems Implement bulk tank testing protocols. Whether that’s daily RT-PCR testing or weekly surveillance depends on your risk level and budget, but you need some form of early detection system in place before fall migration.

Days 61-90: Advanced Protocols This is where you add the sophisticated stuff—automated monitoring systems, milk acidification protocols, and advanced worker protection measures. But only after you’ve got the basics down.

What strikes me about this timeline is that it’s achievable for most operations without breaking the bank. The key is not trying to do everything at once.

https://www.thebullvine.com/news/th...g-you-think-you-know-about-dairy-biosecurity/
 
image.png

Common crane
/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_crane
​------------------------------------------------------------------------​
Excerpts:

Germany:

To date, the losses among cranes alone are estimated at over 1,000 individuals. Brandenburg, like many other federal states, is currently affected by an unprecedented outbreak of a wildlife disease in cranes on this scale.

/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/germany/983787-germany-h5n1-avian-flu-in-wild-birds-2024-2025/page5
-----------------------------------
But the alert also concerns wild birds, with cranes " particularly affected for the first time ," emphasizes the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute (FLI), which is responsible for animal health. Due to the migrations of cranes and other wild birds, " a further, possibly widespread, spread of HPAI infections is to be expected in the near future ," warns the FLI, which has reassessed the risk of new epizootics to " high ."

/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/germany/984044-germany-2024-2025-avian-flu-in-poultry/page5#post1021666
----------------------------------

France:

An unprecedented excess mortality rate linked to avian flu is currently affecting common cranes at Lac du Der (Marne), a crossroads for their migration south, according to the department's prefecture and the League for the Protection of Birds (LPO).

Since last weekend, when 42,000 common cranes arrived around the large lake, "around 500 crane corpses have been counted," the Marne prefecture told AFP on Friday.

The same source stated that the presence of avian flu was "confirmed" in this population on Wednesday, the day the risk level linked to this disease was raised to its highest level in metropolitan France. Until now, the avian flu virus had never affected the common cranes of Lake Der, according to the prefecture.​

/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/france/934411-france-2022-2025-h5n1-in-wild-birds/page9​
 
Media - emphasis is mine

Bird flu virus has 'everything it takes to trigger a pandemic,' warns WHO virologist

Published on 29/10/2025​

An increasing number of poultry farms in Germany are being affected by bird flu. Since the beginning of September, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute has recorded around 31 outbreaks of the virus in livestock farming and 131 cases of avian influenza in wild birds.

This autumn, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute reported that this is happening unusually early and rapidly. More than 500,000 chickens, ducks, geese and turkeys have already had to be killed. A particularly high number of cases have been recorded in eastern Germany and Lower Saxony.

According to the institute, avian influenza is a highly contagious and rapidly fatal infectious disease in many bird and poultry species. In the near future, a large-scale spread due to migratory activity must be expected, the institute said in a press release. It categorised the risk as "high".

How dangerous is bird flu?

"In principle, the H5N1 virus has everything it takes to trigger a pandemic," virologist Klaus Stöhr told the German news agency dpa. Stöhr, the long-standing head of the World Health Organization's influenza programme, warns of another pandemic.

There are now cases worldwide in which wild poultry are spreading the virus.

"This means there are now infinitely more opportunities for transmission and adaptation to humans. This risk should not be underestimated," said Stöhr.


At the same time, good precautions can be taken to prevent such an outbreak. "There have always been pandemics, and good pandemic planning is the best preparation," he said.

-snip-

"We are already in an early but strong phase of the outbreak - laying hen and turkey flocks in open and free-range systems are particularly affected," explained Hans-Peter Goldnick, president of the Central Association of the German Poultry Industry (ZDG).

Goldnick warns that politicians must now intervene to contain the further spread. Supply bottlenecks for eggs and poultry meat cannot be ruled out. "We are calling on the federal states to take action now. Waiting is not an option," said Goldnick.
-snip- Stiko: Avoid double infection with flu and bird flu


In addition, the Standing Committee on Vaccination (Stiko) and the pharmacists' associations advise people at risk to be vaccinated against influenza. Anyone who works with certain animals or has private contact with them should avoid a double infection with seasonal flu and bird flu

Due to the risk of bird flu, the Stiko had already extended its vaccination recommendation at the beginning of the year, Thomas Preis, president of the Federal Association of German Pharmacists' Associations, told the Rheinische Post.

"Everyone who has professional and private contact with poultry, wild birds, pigs and seals should be vaccinated against influenza to avoid contracting influenza and bird flu at the same time," he continued
​-snip-
"The aim is to prevent the emergence of a new variant of bird flu, which could be transmitted from person to person and be the starting point for a new pandemic," said Preis.

https://www.euronews.com/health/202...es-to-trigger-a-pandemic-warns-who-virologist


 
Translation Google

Avian influenza A (H5N1): "We are two mutations away from having a virus potentially worse than COVID"

QMI Agency
Friday, November 7, 2025 10:45 PM
UPDATE Friday, November 7, 2025 10:45 PM

(Video)

Avian influenza infections in animals continue to rise both nationally and globally. Concerns persist regarding the possibility of human-to-human transmission and the threat of a new pandemic.

Some 300 ostriches infected with bird flu in Edgewood, British Columbia, were slaughtered on Friday.

A measure deemed "necessary" because of the risks associated with the H5N1 strain, according to the president of the World Association for Animal Biosecurity, Jean-Pierre Vaillancourt.

"You have to know that this is not just any disease," he said in an interview with Benoît Dutrizac on QUB radio and television, on 99.5 FM Montreal, Friday.

"We are talking about a virus currently present in Canada, which already has two mutations that bring us closer to an influenza virus capable of infecting humans. We are two mutations away from having a virus that would be able to pass easily between humans and that could, in fact, be potentially worse than COVID," he indicated.

Mr. Vaillancourt, however, offered reassurance: the risk that infected ostriches pose a danger to human health is considered very low.

"It's very low, but it's not zero. [...] So, we're not there yet, we shouldn't panic, but it's still not nothing," he added.

A situation being closely monitored

The Quebec National Institute of Public Health (INSPQ) has been closely monitoring this situation since 2022.

A virulent spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus (HPAI H5N1) of clade 2.3.4.4ba has been taking place around the world since 2020, according to the INSPQ website.

"The problem is that this is a pandemic. There are more than 100 countries where the virus is widespread among all kinds of domestic and wild animals," explained Mr. Vaillancourt.

The different subtypes of avian influenza – including H5N1 – rarely cause infections in humans.

"Generally, people who get infected do so because they weren't careful, didn't wash their hands, handled birds, either alive or dead, that had the disease. And then, well, they touched their mucous membranes because the virus is excreted from sick birds," he stressed.

A pandemic seems unlikely at the moment, but the fear of human-to-human transmission has not been ruled out.

"If it [H5N1] could easily pass between human beings, obviously [this is a] catastrophic scenario, [...] with that, we would miss COVID," he quipped.

See the full interview in the video and audio clips above.
(in French )

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2...ir-un-virus-potentiellement-pire-que-la-covid

-------------------------------------
About Jean-Pierre Vaillancourt:


https://fmv.umontreal.ca/etudes/personnel-enseignant/fiche/in/in14753/sg/Jean-Pierre Vaillancourt/
 
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
·
2h
US - Due to widespread #H5N1 in wild animals & some domestic
animals like poultry, we need updated pandemic policies and
materials.

We don't know what going to happen but it is better to be prepared.

@ASPRgov @CDCgov @HHSGov @WhiteHouse


------------------------------------------------------------------

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
·
2m
US - The last @HHSGov #H5N1 media press call involving multiple
agencies @USDA , @ASPRgov , @CDCgov , @US_FDA , @NIH was
January 2025.

When is the next one? We need it. Keep the people informed.

@WhiteHouse​​
 
Translation Google

Cranes die from avian flu: ornithologists suspect factory farms

By Fabienne Loiseau
November 15, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Reading time: 7 minutes

While avian flu has killed thousands of common cranes in the past month, authorities are worried about poultry. Ornithologists, on the other hand, suspect that industrial farms are the cause of this mass die-off.

Broken slates and a gaping hole in the roof. On October 23rd, a house in Aix-d'Angillon, in the Cher department, was damaged by a falling… common crane. Recovered by the French Office for Biodiversity, the bird tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza ( HPAI ).

“ We are facing a sad deluge of birds with the flu ,” Jean-Noël Rieffel, regional director of the French Office for Biodiversity ( OFB ) Centre-Val de Loire, confirmed to Reporterre . In other regions, cranes have fallen onto highways and into schoolyards, he added.

For the past month, the carcasses of approximately 25,000 common cranes have been found along their migratory route through Germany, France, and Spain, according to Alain Salvi, president of the European Crane Working Group. The count is estimated to exceed 10,000 in France alone. " And these are only the birds that have been observed. Many others have undoubtedly disappeared, either drowned or eaten by predators , " explains Salvi, who is also president of the Lorraine Regional Nature Reserve.

Every autumn, 350,000 to 400,000 common cranes fly over our country in shifting V-shaped formations, announcing the first cold weather with their characteristic " krrrrou, krrrrou " . About a third do not go any further and remain to overwinter at stopover sites, in Champagne-Ardenne ( Lac du Der ), in the large alluvial valleys of the Loire and Allier rivers (Nièvre, Cher, Allier) or in the Landes region (Arjuzanx nature reserve).

These large, gray, and shy birds will be less numerous in our fields this winter. Even so, Alain Savi offers reassurance: the current epizootic should not unduly affect the renewal of crane populations, whose numbers are already satisfactory.

1.5 million farm animals affected in Germany

It was in Germany that the epidemic started during the second week of October. Originating in the far northeast of Germany, it then spread southwest following the migratory route of crane flies.

In addition to the thousands of cranes that have been collected, the H5N1 virus has also been causing a massive die-off in poultry farms for the past month. According to the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute, the German authority responsible for epizootic diseases, as of November 12, approximately 1.5 million farm animals had died from the virus or had been culled as a preventative measure.

Clusters of infection in France

On the same date, in France, the Ministry of Agriculture reported 18 outbreaks of avian influenza in commercial turkey, duck, and chicken farms, without providing the total number of birds killed or culled. Precautionary and biosecurity measures on farms have been reinforced since October 22nd, as the risk level for avian influenza was raised from " moderate " to " high " .

" The sharp increase in the incidence of poultry outbreaks in northern and western Germany observed since mid-October 2025 suggests a significant change in the dynamics of HPAI virus infection . It is probably linked to the ongoing post-nuptial migration and mass mortality events observed in common cranes , " the scientists write in the Weekly Bulletin of International Animal Health Surveillance ( BHVSI - SA ).

In other words, the virus could have been introduced into the farms by cranes that were already infected. However, this hypothesis is being questioned by ornithologists and environmental groups in Germany.

" It has not yet been proven that wild birds are the source of the outbreaks ."

The branch of the German Union for Nature Conservation and Biodiversity in Brandenburg — one of the most affected regions — suspects , on the contrary, that the poultry industry is the cause of the crane contamination, and demands a transparent investigation to understand the source of the infection, through a petition signed by nearly 100,000 people.

" It has not yet been proven that wild birds are the source of the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 ," the organization stated. " It is more likely that wild birds are infected by viruses that previously circulated in the poultry industry. " It noted that the virus had been officially detected in 15 poultry farms across five German states even before the first cranes had died.

Most of these infected farms are enclosed, with no access to the outdoors for the poultry, notes Klemens Steiof, a Berlin-based ornithologist interviewed by Reporterre . He finds it " extremely unlikely " that cranes could have contaminated such places .

The greylag geese were spared

Furthermore, the naturalist believes that an infected wild bird that dies no longer spreads the virus, which is quickly destroyed in nature. He gives the example of wild geese: " Currently, in Germany, common cranes have not infected the tens of thousands of greylag geese, bean geese, and white-fronted geese that share the same habitat. "

According to him, the transmission of this virus from wild birds to other birds only occurs in very specific situations: densely populated seabird colonies, large gatherings of cranes in roosts, predatory or scavenger birds feeding on an infected bird… This is also the fear of Alain Salvi in ​​Lorraine, a region that is home to the rare white-tailed eagles of France: “ They could become infected by feeding on the carcasses of cranes. ”

Contaminated manure spread in the fields ?

But how could the virus have passed from an enclosed farm to wild cranes ? " Unfortunately, veterinarians do not usually look for vectors between the poultry industry and wild birds , " laments Klemens Steiof, who can only offer hypotheses.

The fact that the epidemic began intensely, with many cranes infected within a few days, suggests, according to him, a source close to the large crane parking sites located in eastern Germany (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and/or Brandenburg).

Another factor that could explain why only the cranes were affected and not other wild birds: " One possibility could be the fertilization of the cornfields, which are numerous in Brandenburg, with manure from livestock farms that has been buried in the soil , " he suggests. While the cranes forage in the soil in search of remaining corn kernels, the wild geese would simply peck at the surface.

He also mentions the possibility of contamination from ventilation systems. Finally, the transport of infected poultry to slaughterhouses could be another potential source of contamination along the route.

" It's easy to blame wild birds and turn a blind eye to factory farming ."

" We demand that the spreading of manure on fields be permitted only after germicidal treatment , " demands Helmut Brücher, a member of the board of directors of the Bund für Natur und Umwelt (Friends of the Earth Germany) branch in Brandenburg.

" It is easy to blame wild birds and turn a blind eye to industrial farming and its consequences. Brandenburg has the largest egg-laying hen farms in Germany, with an average of more than 60,000 animals , " he denounces, calling for more in-depth investigations into large farms.

In France, the League for the Protection of Birds expressed the same position in a statement at the end of October: " As formidable incubators of viruses, high concentrations of poultry promote the emergence of new, potentially more aggressive variants, likely to threaten all living things, including humans. "

The association is once again denouncing the Duplomb law , condemned by all environmentalists, which eases regulations by raising the thresholds above which intensive poultry farms are subject to environmental authorization. " France is unfortunately moving in the wrong direction , " concludes Allain Bougrain-Dubourg, its president.

https://reporterre.net/Grippe-aviai...e-contaminees-par-les-elevages-industriels-et
 
Translation Google

H5N1 flu: if I were a duck, I'd be very scared

Published: November 14, 2025 2:34pm EST

Author
  1. Ignacio López-GoñiProfessor of Microbiology. Member of the Spanish Society for Microbiology (SEM), University of Navarra
Disclosure statement

Ignacio López-Goñi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
...


Last Thursday, November 13, the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food ordered the lockdown of all outdoor poultry farms to curb the spread of avian influenza, caused by the H5N1 virus. The justification for such a drastic measure, which has been taken on other occasions, is based on the increase in outbreaks of the infection in Europe and the heightened risk posed by the migration of wild birds across the continent.

This type of news understandably causes alarm among the public, but has the risk of the H5N1 virus triggering a pandemic among the human population increased? Why is it causing increasing devastation not only among birds, but also among many mammal species?

Champions of variability

Influenza viruses are the champions of variability. There are four genera (A, B, C, and D) and many different types.

Influenza A viruses are the most important for human and animal health, and all of them are ancestrally derived from avian viruses. The influenza A virus has two essential proteins in its envelope: hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). There are 18 types of H and 11 of N, which can be found in any combination: H1N1, H1N2, and so on up to H18N11. Furthermore, within each type there is considerable genetic diversity, so strains belonging to the same type can differ in their ability to cause disease, host range, transmissibility, and other characteristics.

The H5N1 influenza pandemic

The H5N1 virus is a highly pathogenic type of influenza A virus with a high mortality rate among birds. Wild species, especially those in aquatic environments, constitute the natural reservoir.

The H5N1 virus was first detected in domestic geese in China in 1997, and since then it has spread widely across several continents through migratory birds, diversifying into different genetic groups or clades. The virus has spread to a large number of bird and mammal species worldwide and is causing a true pandemic in the animal world, a phenomenon known as panzootic .

​​ Devastating impact on birds

In 2020, the clade designated 2.3.4.4b emerged , reaching North America in late 2021. H5N1 viruses belonging to this clade have been able to replicate massively in wild and domestic birds, affecting more than 380 different bird species across 52 families and 25 orders. The impact on these animals has been enormous in many countries: millions of birds have died from this pathogen in recent years. For example, it is estimated that the virus caused the death of approximately 40% of all pelicans in Peru in less than five months .

Enormous geographical area

Avian influenza viruses typically have a seasonal pattern associated with the colder months, similar to human influenza. However, since 2020, H5N1 has also appeared during the spring and summer. This has contributed to its enormous geographic spread; in fact, it is now present on every continent except Oceania.

After causing thousands of outbreaks in Europe, the H5N1 virus was able to cross the Atlantic Ocean in late 2021 and reach North America, wreaking havoc on the poultry industry and wild birds in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. From there, the pathogen spread throughout Latin America, from Peru to Chile and Argentina. In 2024, it was detected in several bird species in Antarctica .


The leap to mammals

One of the most concerning changes is the H5N1 virus's ability to infect various mammals, both wild and domestic (dogs and cats). Since 2021, it has spread to more than 50 species, from bears, otters, and skunks to elephant seals, dolphins, and walruses. In some cases, it has been highly virulent: in the Americas , for example, tens of thousands of sea lions and elephant seals have died.

Furthermore, the virus has evolved and adapted to these new hosts and is able to transmit itself between them, as has been demonstrated in elephant seals or fur farms in Europe .


In animals, the H5N1 virus typically causes a range of symptoms, from pneumonia and meningoencephalitis to neurological signs such as tremors, seizures, and ataxia. High viral loads have been observed in the brains of some species .

H5N1 in cattle in the United States

In late March 2024, the first case of H5N1 2.3.4.4b infection in dairy cows was reported in the United States, a completely unexpected reservoir of the virus.

This jump to cattle represents a significant change in the virus's behavior, as it showed a new ability to multiply in mammary tissue , with high viral loads detected in the milk. This reveals its adaptation to mammalian hosts and highlights its potential for zoonotic transmission to humans. Genomic analyses identified new mutations that increase the virus's ability to bind to mammalian cell receptors and facilitate its spread.

Why this jump of the H5N1 virus to cattle has only been detected in the United States and not in other countries is still a mystery.


H5N1 in humans

Despite the spread of the H5N1 virus in animals and human exposure, relatively few human infections have been reported to date . Since it was first detected in China, only around 900 cases have been described, the vast majority in individuals who work on poultry farms or handle birds. Although the virus's fatality rate in humans can reach 50%, most of the cases reported in recent years have been mild.

Current data indicate that these viruses have not acquired the ability for sustained transmission between people, so the risk to the general population remains low.

The next human pandemic?

However, there is no doubt that the H5N1 virus also poses a threat to our species. For this virus to become a pandemic, it would need to undergo several changes . It would need to improve its ability to be transmitted through the air between humans and to bind to receptors on human cells. But, in addition, it would need to improve its ability to enter our cells and multiply within them. Finally, it would need to be able to evade our immune system.

Achieving the right combination of all these mutations is difficult… but not impossible. The flu virus is the champion of variability, mutation, and recombination. Other flu viruses have been responsible for the major pandemics of the 20th century. The massive global circulation of the H5N1 virus in the animal world is bad news.

​​To preserve human health, it is essential to monitor what is happening in the animal world. That is why the One Health strategy is in place: improving biosecurity on farms, intensifying veterinary surveillance not only in poultry but also in cattle and swine, and promoting effective coordination between the public health and animal health sectors through a collaborative approach. We are not facing a new pandemic, but the H5N1 virus is getting closer.


https://theconversation.com/gripe-h5n1-si-yo-fuera-pato-estaria-muy-asustado-269821
 
Back
Top