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Avian flu H5N1 discussion - news/case lists links - 2022+

Related to:

Hat tip to Shiloh
Science: A single mutation in bovine influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin switches specificity to human receptors

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...tinin-switches-specificity-to-human-receptors


Translation Google

H5N1: No, we are not one mutation away from a flu pandemic

Published: January 7, 2025 12:56pm EST

Authors
  1. Ignacio Lopez-Goñi Professor of Microbiology. Member of the Spanish Society of Microbiology (SEM), University of Navarra
  2. Elisa Perez Ramirez Veterinary virologist at the Animal Health Research Centre (CISA), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)


Early last December, a group of researchers published a paper in the journal Science titled “ A Single Mutation in the Bovine Influenza H5N1 Hemagglutinin Changes Specificity to Human Receptors .” Some media outlets exaggeratedly interpreted this to mean that we were just one mutation away from the next flu pandemic .

Although there are currently no documented cases of human-to-human transmission, there is concern that the H5N1 avian influenza virus that has been spreading in cattle in the United States could adapt to human-to-human transmission and eventually trigger an influenza pandemic.


Molecular barriers

One of the barriers to the transmission of avian viruses to humans is the specificity of the binding of the virus's hemagglutinin (HA) to the cellular receptor, a sialic acid molecule of which there are different types. Thus, the HA of avian influenza viruses binds to “avian-type” cellular receptors containing α2-3 sialic acid. In contrast, the HA of human influenza viruses binds to receptors with α2-6 sialic acid, abundant in our upper respiratory tract cells.

For the avian influenza virus to be transmitted from person to person, the first step would therefore be for it to be able to bind effectively to human receptors.

...
The aforementioned study is actually an in vitro experimental assay , not the characterization of a specific isolate of the H5N1 virus circulating in nature. The work consisted of introducing mutations into a specific site of the HA protein of the H5N1 virus and evaluating how they bind to the human-type receptor using different laboratory techniques.

In addition, the scientists determined the crystal structures of these mutant proteins to understand the molecular basis of the specific binding between the HA proteins and the receptors. They observed that a single mutation (specifically, the change of an amino acid from glutamine to leucine at residue 226 of the protein) was sufficient for the virus to bind to the human receptor in the laboratory.

In theory, the appearance of this single mutation could be an indicator that the virus can be transmitted between people. In addition, the researchers found that a second mutation further improves binding to the human receptor. But that does not mean we are one mutation away from a pandemic.


A real pandemic in the animal world

The first highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype emerged in China in 1996. Since then, H5 viruses have spread widely in Europe, Africa, North America and Asia via migratory birds, and have diversified into distinct genetic types (clades and subclades).

In 2020, the clade called 2.3.4.4b emerged , which arrived in North America at the end of 2021. H5N1 viruses belonging to this group have been able to infect more than 350 species of birds and more than 50 species of marine and terrestrial mammals, including humans. Due to its geographical spread (it has even been detected in Antarctica), temporal extent (cases are described throughout the year), the number of species that record transmission and the number of animals affected, the avian influenza epidemic can now be considered a true pandemic in the animal world, which is known as panzootic.


In late March 2024, the first case of H5N1 2.3.4.4b infection in dairy cattle was reported in the United States , an unexpected reservoir for the virus. Since then, this pathogen has been detected in more than 900 dairy farms in 16 states , with California having the highest incidence (about 80% of cases).


Infection of wild birds with H5N1 is also widespread, with outbreaks on poultry farms having killed more than 100 million birds in the country. The virus has also been identified in many species of wild mammals and zoo animals, particularly felines.

H5N1 in humans

Historically, human infections with H5N1 have been sporadic and always linked to exposure to infected poultry. As of November 2024, more than 900 human cases have been reported in 24 countries , with mortality rates of more than 30% reported in hospitalized cases. However, this is most likely an overestimate as it does not take into account asymptomatic or unreported infections.

Since March 2024, when the first transmission of the H5N1 virus from cow to person occurred in the United States, 64 human cases have been confirmed in nine states. More than half of these (36) have occurred in California. Detailed clinical information on 46 of these cases identified between March and October 2024 has just been published . Of the 46 patients, 45 were exposed to infected dairy cows (25) or poultry (20). Only one patient could not identify the source of infection (he was hospitalized with non-respiratory symptoms, had no complications, and was discharged three days after admission).

Among the 45 patients with animal exposure, all had mild illness, none were hospitalized, and no one died. Ninety-three percent had conjunctivitis, 49 percent had fever, and only 36 percent had respiratory symptoms, all of which were short-lived. No additional cases of infection were identified among the 97 contacts of these patients, so human-to-human transmission has not been demonstrated. This is consistent with the current lack of evidence of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 in the United States.

Why is it not a pandemic yet?

One simple answer is that the virus may simply need more time to find the right combination of mutations . For the H5N1 avian influenza pathogen to become pandemic, it would need to not only improve its ability to spread through the air between humans and bind to receptors on human cells, but also improve its ability to enter and multiply inside humans.

Furthermore, it should be able to evade the human immune system. It cannot be ruled out that part of the population already has some acquired immunity against neuraminidase type 1 influenza viruses (such as H5N1) through contact with other human influenza viruses such as H1N1, or that seasonal influenza vaccines have some protective value .

So far, sequencing of H5N1 viruses from U.S. cases has not shown any changes in the HA gene associated with increased infectivity or transmissibility, and no mutations in other genes have been identified that indicate adaptation to humans. Perhaps a specific mutation that allows H5N1 to better attach to human recipients could harm the virus in some other way.

The One Health Strategy

Getting the right combination of mutations is complicated… but not impossible. The flu virus is the champion of variability and recombination. The intense global circulation of the H5N1 virus in the animal world is bad news.

Although the risk to the general public is currently low, it is essential to improve biosecurity on farms, intensify veterinary surveillance not only in poultry but also in cattle and pigs, and promote effective coordination between the public health and animal health sectors through the collaborative approach called One Health (some sectors have criticized the slowness with which the US authorities are intervening ).

If a susceptible species (pigs, cows, minks, etc.) is infected simultaneously with both human seasonal influenza and avian influenza viruses, a rearrangement of the genomes of both viruses could occur, giving rise to a hybrid that is better adapted to human infection.

Public health efforts should continue to focus on protecting workers exposed to infected animals with preventive measures, such as vaccination, to minimize risk. It is critical to investigate each human case to detect early any changes that may suggest increased pathogenicity, virulence, or transmissibility between people.

Furthermore, research into new therapeutic strategies and the development of universal vaccines, effective against all influenza subtypes, remain a priority. We are not one mutation away from a pandemic, but the H5N1 virus is getting closer.

​...

https://theconversation.com/h5n1-no-no-estamos-a-una-mutacion-de-sufrir-una-pandemia-de-gripe-246790
 
1/7/25
Florida Wildlife Hospital sees record patients, bird flu and pelicans injured on purpose

Sick or crippled critters keep coming, often faster than the cash to cure them.

Add ailments like bird flu and pelican wings snapped (seemingly on purpose) to all the new homes displacing wildlife habitat, and you get a perfect storm of feathered, fuzzy and increasingly needy patients at Florida Wildlife Hospital. The Palm Shores nonprofit took in a record 7,489 sick or injured animals in 2024, almost 50% more than the typical year.

“It’s been a challenging year, keeping up with the huge demand, but our supporters came through," said Tracy Frampton, the hospital's executive director.
​This small nonprofit just north of Melbourne is on the front lines of defense against animal cruelty, bird flu and other zoonotic diseases (those spread from animals to people).​

continued: https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-wildlife-hospital-sees-record-100845547.html
https://floridawildlifehospital.org
 
Three Indian River Lagoon dolphins suspected of dying from bird flu
Melbourne

​1/8/25
At least three dead bottlenose dolphins that died in the Indian River Lagoon in the past year have tested positive for bird flu. according to federal biologists. Results are pending on several other lagoon dolphins that died in the past month. But it's uncertain how the virus might affect dolphins or us in the long run.​

While in humans the virus mostly targets the lungs, in dolphins it tends to attack the brain.

"All three animals had encephalitis," said Wendy Noke Durden, a research scientist at Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute's Melbourne Beach lab. Encephalitis can cause dolphins to circle erratically, fail to right themselves and ultimately drown.

continued: https://www.floridatoday.com/story/...suspected-of-dying-from-bird-flu/77490376007/


 
New Jersey
BIRD FLU HITS NJ: Avian Flu Outbreak Suspected In Widespread Deaths Across Garden State
1/8
Multiple wild bird fatalities, predominantly among snow geese, have been reported across New Jersey this week, with avian influenza suspected as the cause.

Preliminary in-state testing has indicated presumptive positive results for H5 avian influenza in seven snow geese, two Canada geese, and two hawks recovered from Warren, Middlesex, Morris, and Sussex Counties. Additional animals from various sites in southern New Jersey are currently undergoing testing.
​...https://lakewoodalerts.com/bird-flu...ted-in-widespread-deaths-across-garden-state/

North Jersey wastewater sample tests positive for bird flu.
Wed, January 8, 2025​

A wastewater sample from the Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission tested positive for H5 bird flu this week, according to WastewaterSCAN, a monitoring program based at Stanford University.

The positive test from a Jan. 6 sample comes amid a national rise in cases of H5N1 avian flu, which has been evident in New Jersey mostly through high egg prices at the market. No active outbreaks in poultry or livestock have been reported in New Jersey, which sits along major migratory bird routes. However, the virus has had significant impacts elsewhere.
​...https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-jersey-wastewater-sample-tests-210246914.html
 
Howard Chan School of Public Health

Preparing for next pandemic requires more funding, better communication

January 23, 2025

Over the past few months, Harvard Chan faculty have been sharing evidence-based recommendations on urgent public health issues facing the next U.S. administration. Kizzmekia Corbett-Helaire, assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases, offered her thoughts on preparing for the next pandemic, including the need for additional funding, clearer communication from public health leaders, and stronger partnerships among government agencies, business, and academia.

Q: Why is pandemic preparedness a pressing public health issue?

continued: https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/prepa...c-requires-more-funding-better-communication/


 
Americans grapple with egg shortage as bird flu devastates flocks

Published Jan. 24, 2025,​
Excerpts:

The nonprofit organization provides resources for “national category-level egg marketing,” according to its website.

The U.S. alone lost more than 40 million laying hens to bird flu in 2024, said Metz.

While the entire country is experiencing egg shortages to some degree, Metz said it is worse in states with laws requiring that grocery store eggs be “cage-free.”

The states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon and Washington all have this legislation, according to CageFreeLaws.com, which tracks cage-free legislation by state.

“Supply disruptions may be more pronounced [among] retailers and in states that exclusively sell cage-free eggs due to impacts from HPAI on cage-free farms, which were disproportionately affected late last year,” Metz told Fox News Digital.
​-snip-

About 40% of laying hens in the U.S. are “cage-free,” she said.

Of birds lost to bird flu, more than half of these birds are cage-free, Metz added. “It’s important to know that bird flu does not discriminate based on farm size or housing environment. The disease is carried by wild birds,” she said.

Once a laying hen tests positive for bird flu, the entire flock is culled to prevent spread, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“When an egg farm is impacted with HPAI, it must go through multiple steps with government approvals before it can repopulate new flocks, a necessary process that can take six months to a year,” further adding to the supply issues, Metz said.
-snip-
Fox News Digital reached out to Costco for comment, where customers have noticed recent egg shortages. Many local grocery stores across the country also have seen supplies shrink and prices rise.​

https://nypost.com/2025/01/24/us-ne...d-by-bird-flu-shortage-frustrating-americans/
 
Some of the largest poultry farms in the UK are having to shut down due to H5N1. I read that it can take up to a year to get the property sanitised and for restocking of hens etc. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdry53eneedo "Bird flu forces culling of one million hens" This is on one farm.

Also...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/avian-influenza-prevention-zone-declared-for-whole-of-england "
Press release Avian Influenza Prevention Zone declared for whole of England


Mandatory enhanced biosecurity will now be required and the housing order extended to cover York, North Yorkshire and Shropshire."


 
Ohio leads the nation in recent bird flu cases among commercial poultry operations, with more than 4.1 million chickens and turkeys affected so far this year, 2025. 16 facilities in 2 Counties, Darke and Mercer. Ohio leads nation in bird flu cases among commercial poultry operations


1/27/25
Ohio leads nation in bird flu cases among commercial poultry operations

​Excerpt:
In Darke County, there have been nearly 1.5 million cases reported since Jan. 9 involving nearly 700,000 egg-laying chickens, nearly 740,000 pullets — or chickens less than a year — and more than 57,000 turkeys. In December, there were HPAI cases at four facilities in the county involving more than 1.4 million egg layers and more than 48,000 turkeys, according to the USDA.​

All of the cases in Mercer County have been reported since Jan. 14 and have involved more than 2.9 million layers and more than 26,000 turkeys.

...Ohio is the second-largest egg producing state, behind Iowa. In 2023, Ohio produced more than 11 billion eggs. In the USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture, Ohio had more than 20 million broilers and other meat-type chickens, as well as 38.5 million layers and 11.8 million pullets.​

...https://www.daytondailynews.com/loc...oultry-operations/6W6SJ3SYNFE3DB7D4HTEYPC33Y/
 
[Different figures in this report]

Nearly 7 million birds destroyed in two counties

​January 27, 2025
Excerpt:

H5N1 HPAV (High Path Avian Influenza) originally claimed over 1.2 million birds with 1.1 million layers and over 30,000 turkeys affected.

That number has risen significantly since Jan. 14 when the original story was published. Additional reports were released to the Ohio Department of Agriculture on Jan. 15 that has continued through last Friday (Jan. 24). Another 2.7 million birds in Darke County have been euthanized or are in the process of being euthanized; bringing the total to nearly four million birds destroyed.

Although layers and turkeys have taken the biggest hit in the county, pullets are beginning to be affected. Overall, the county has lost 3.2 million layers, 63,835 turkeys and 539,171 pullets.

Mercer County is also being hit hard by H5N1 HPAV. They have seen 10 reports of the avian flu since Jan. 14 that has resulted in the death of over three million birds. Mercer County has 2.9 million layers euthanized and 78,865 turkeys destroyed.

Between the top two agricultural counties in the state, nearly seven million birds have been destroyed.

-snip-
Since the beginning of the year, 22 premises in the state have been affected by avian flu with all of those premises in Darke and Mercer counties. There have been 12 in Darke County and 10 in Mercer County since 2025 began.​


 
Hogvet51 from Hogvet51’s Livestock Emerging and Zoonotic Disease Forum​

January 27, 2025
While Layers are Dying, Are We Going to Feed our Seed Corn?


Excerpt:
It all numbs us at some point. Each new outbreak seems a bit less novel; however, the poultry are just as dead, the workers are just as threatened by health and economic losses, and the owners are just as devastated emotionally and financially. I have never seen such an animal health disaster in my lifetime affecting 2 livestock species (so far), domestic pets, captive wildlife, and a huge array of mammalian and avian wildlife.

What is the problem? Mike Osterholm in his weekly Podcast raises an uncomfortable issue (aerosol-airborne spread) that I’ve raised myself in previous blogs (7/20- H5N1 Aerosol Spread With Respiratory Infection Continues to be Underrated). Michael Coston covers this portion of the Osterholm Podcast well in this post with further commentary: Avian Flu Diary: Osterholm Podcast: The Potential Environmental (Airborne) Spread of H5N1

hogvet51@substack.com
 
Keeping eyes on bird flu outbreak that could quickly escalate

​January 28, 2025
NEW YORK - When bird flu first struck dairy cattle in 2024, it seemed possible that it might affect a few isolated herds and disappear as quickly as it had appeared. Instead, the virus has infected more than 900 herds and dozens of people, killing one, and the outbreak shows no signs of abating...
-snip-

The USDA’s program to test bulk milk began in December – nearly a year after the outbreak began – and still does not include Idaho. Engaging outside companies may help the program move faster.

Ginkgo Bioworks, a company that worked with federal agencies during the COVID pandemic, already works with a partner that assesses roughly half the nation’s commercial milk supply for bacteria, antibiotics and other substances.

Adding H5N1 to the list would be straightforward, so “why wouldn’t we just add assays into this infrastructure that we already have?” said Mr Matt McKnight, a manager at the company’s biosecurity division...

Continued: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...bird-flu-outbreak-that-could-quickly-escalate
 
An answer I gave to someone about the absence of human H5N1 cases reported in the US in January 2025. People can disagree with me but it is what I think....


Today, 02:58 PM

I do not believe human cases have disappeared.

1) California gov which was so great in reporting has stopped....imho due to the huge political outrage over the fires.

2) There is no possible way there are no human cases after a reported 18 million in poultry were affected in January. Very many people must have been exposed in the process of them (the poultry) being sick, and culling.

No. The human cases did not magically disappear.

Now all federal employees are afraid for their jobs...maybe (they feel) reporting anything bad is a career killer? What does this remind me of? China. 100%.

Sad to say.....​
 
Last edited:
An answer I gave to someone about the absence of human H5N1 cases reported in the US in January 2025. People can disagree with me but it is what I think....


Today, 02:58 PM

I do not believe human cases have disappeared.

1) California gov which was so great in reporting has stopped....imho due to the huge political outrage over the fires.

2) There is no possible way there are no human cases after a reported 18 million in poultry were affected in January. Very many people must have been exposed in the process of them (the poultry) being sick, and culling.

No. The human cases did not magically disappear.

Now all federal employees are afraid for their jobs...maybe (they feel) reporting anything bad is a career killer? What does this remind me of? China. 100%.

Sad to say.....​

Links for this post:

Palisades fire (one of the numerous fires in LA county) - January 7, 2025 link

USDA H5N1 poultry graph for January 2025 link


------------------------------------------------------

No state wants to ruin their economy. What is so China-like to me is that the local officials (ALLEGEDLY) are at the root of the denial/no testing situations. IMHO. "Why test people who only have sniffles?", some might say. This has been going on for many months. Why was California so impacted when so many other states were not? California has some of the "best and brightest" ag people in the US. They know what they are doing. So if this happened to them - what about everywhere else? Miracles?

I am just going to call it out. We have no ties to any corporation or government. We are Independent Media in the truest sense. We make no $ from this site which is really freeing.

People can disagree with me but I call it as I see it. The End.
 
also regarding Sharon's post #116, I've done some recent media reports on Seasonal Flu that is shutting down some schools temporary for a few days, and restricting some hospitals to visitors, and accomodation due to the overload seasonal flu of patients. Please go to and click on your State for an updated article: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj

As for California - here are a few I found today:

Quartet of viruses overwhelm Calif. city EDs
..." An increase in cases involving these viruses — dubbed the “quad-demic” by medical experts — is responsible for the influx of patients in Fresno -area emergency rooms.​"...
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...fluenza-reports-2024-25?p=1006578#post1006578

and..

February 1, 2025
Where is flu surging in the US? Some hospitals are overwhelmed in states with high rates


,,, "Also in San Diego, Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center has deployed a temporary tent outside their emergency department to triage and treat low-risk patients in response to high volumes of patients with flu symptoms. The hospital is seeing about 15-20 flu patients per day in the tent, which helps open the availability of beds in the ER for other health concerns,​"...
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...fluenza-reports-2024-25?p=1006539#post1006539
 
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