Argentina flu deaths double to 337

[HenryN]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Mamabird,

Does it really have to be a re-run of 1918 though, genetically?

Correct me if I am wrong on these thoughts...

1) We currently know certain genetic markers that seem to be causes of high virulence in influenza.
2) We know what 1957 looked like.
3) We currently know what 2009 looks like.
4) We do not know all the genetic markers that make influenza highly pathogenic.
5) Ergo, while we have historical data which shows the past, we do not know what mutations 2009 H1N1 will pick up and it could very well pick up a mutation that we do not know anything about, which might be highly pathogenic. (In essence, if we are only looking for specific markers and we do not see them, it doesn't rule out the possibility that this influenza picks up novel combination that makes it highly pathogenic)

Correct. Many roads lead to Rome. Recombination is the mechanism. Human polymorphisms are the the LARGE red flag. The virus is VERY good at putting together new combinations (and the re-emergence in Mexico may signal that some of those changes are already allowing the virus to escape from spring host immunological reponses).
Moreover, small changes can have big effects. Just one change, E627K, could make a big change in the fall, when temperatures drop, and a huge chnage in the winter, when seasonal flu season peaks. Simply increasing the level of virus could generate a cytokine storm that would kill many more than levels associated with current virus.

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Mamabird,

Do we know this for sure?

I mean, we know we didn't have the 1918 first wave virus.

I don't remember the dates of deaths of the people for the 1918 strains that we do have. Were they from early August, September, October, November?

For me, the uncertainty lies in the fact that the 1918 strain that we do have is a single instance of the virus, with specific genetic traits. Those 1918 strains represent points in time and not evolutionary timelines (like we have with 2009 H1N1).

When working with influenza, we know very little with certainty, although research brings us further along every year.

We do know that the Brevig Mission, SC, NY versions of the 1918 pandemic virus were highly virulent, causing serious illness and about a 2.5% CFR. We also know that the current Swine Flu H1N1 virus, except for the HA segment, is not comparable to the 1918 H1N1.

It is difficult for me to assume that the current H1N1 will evolve into a 1918-like virus. It is equally difficult for me to assume that it will not so evolve. All I can do is look at what we have today and closely monitor the Swine Flu gene sequences and the experieced illness in all parts of the world and act accordingly based on the facts at hand.

I fully expect that as schools begin opening next week, these kids will not only be their sharing summer vacation stories, but also their germs. And since school age children have no immunity to Swine Flu, I would not at all be surprised that we see a whole lot of illness, runs on pharmacies, clinics and hospitals, school closures, etc. I would also expect serious illness and deaths, especially for those with underlying health conditions. What I would not expect anytime soon is a case fatality factor approaching that of 1918 or 1957.

 

[Labrador - Sadie]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Yes, I totally agree.

We can not know what the future holds when it comes to these viruses and how they continually evolve. However, based on what we know today from available gene sequences and the epidemiology of the Swine Flu virus as it spreads across the globe, it is not 1918-like at this stage, or for that matter 1957-like as pointed out by GSGS in another post. Based on the new school guidance provided this morning by HHS and CDC, I believe they would agree.

I thought there were no specimens from the early beginnings of the 1918 strain? I do not see how you can compare an early stage virus (which we have now) and compare to the strain that came later in 1918 and say that they do not compare. If there was a specimen from the beginning of the pandemic to compare it may match up more than the actual 2 you are comparing.?

I am asking a question more than anything else. I am not one of the experts, just trying to get everything straight. Maybe it does not matter, just wanting clarification.

And thanks to all here at FluTrackers who spend endless hours, days posting information. :tiphat:

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

I thought there were no specimens from the early beginnings of the 1918 strain? I do not see how you can compare an early stage virus (which we have now) and compare to the strain that came later in 1918 and say that they do not compare. If there was a specimen from the beginning of the pandemic to compare it may match up more than the actual 2 you are comparing.?

I am asking a question more than anything else. I am not one of the experts, just trying to get everything straight. Maybe it does not matter, just wanting clarification.

And thanks to all here at FluTrackers who spend endless hours, days posting information. :tiphat:

No, Sadie, I agree, and in fact I think you just supported my point.

It is unfair for us to compare the existing Swine Flu H1N1 with the virulent 1918 virus and say that we have nothing about which to be concerned, because influenza is higly variable and evolving.

I would also take the position that it is unfair for us to assume that the second, third or fourth wave of this Swine Flu virus will manifest itself in the same manner as the 1918 virus. We just do not have that luxury of foresight, and current science is simply not robust enough to provide clarity.

We only know what we know based on existing evidence in hand, and that information does not suggest that it is time to panic. It does suggest that we not be complacent. We should prepare, and we should monitor, and we should continue to share with one another.

 

[Commonground]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Thanks everyone for your analysis above. It helps a lot of us "out there" reading and trying to figure it all out. :applause: