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Argentina flu deaths double to 337

H

HenryN

Retired
Argentina flu deaths double to 337

<DL class=columnistProfile><DD>Writer: AFP <DD>Published: 5/08/2009 at 10:36 PM </DD></DL>Swine flu deaths in Argentina have more than doubled in the past two weeks and now total 337, officials said Wednesday.
The figure, up from the previous count of 165, confirmed Argentina as the country with the second-highest swine flu fatality count in the world after the United States, which has 353 dead.
Argentina's deputy health minister Maximo Diosque said swine flu had almost totally replaced the normal seasonal flu in the country, which was in the southern hemisphere's winter.
More than 700,000 of the 763,000 flu cases detected in the country were of the A(H1N1) swine flu type, he said.
"We have confirmed 337 deaths by A(H1N1) flu,'' he said.
"We have a similar number, of around 400 cases, that are in the process of being confirmed.''
Although Argentina has reported almost as many deaths as the United States, its population is just a fraction of the latter, estimated at 40 million to the United States' 300 million.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/151238/argentina-flu-deaths-double-to-337
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Not Suprising IMO, they have not updated their official national death toll in two weeks.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

niman said:
"We have confirmed 337 deaths by A(H1N1) flu,'' he said.
"We have a similar number, of around 400 cases, that are in the process of being confirmed.''
Click to expand...

They have confirmed 337 deaths.

They have a similar number, of around 400 cases, that in the process of being confirmed.

I believe Niman is adding them up and based on the wording of these sentences that would be logical.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Jeremy said:
They have confirmed 337 deaths.

They have a similar number, of around 400 cases, that in the process of being confirmed.

I believe Niman is adding them up and based on the wording of these sentences that would be logical.
Click to expand...
Yes, confirmations lag in Argentina. It is likely that the 400 dead have symptoms similar to the 337 confirmed fatalities and the vast majority will also be confimed (and many have probbaly already been confirmed by private labs), so in a few weeks Argentina has passed the pandemic total of the US and is close to the world to date death total generated by WHO prior to the latest WHO update (which I believe was about 800).
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Anyone care to guess what the CFR might be in argentina,thanks.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

They held their elections at the end of June and a week later cases had skyrocketed. We would expect to see the deaths do the same. There's also probably a lag time for deaths due to time spent on vents.

They are reporting 700,000 "detected" cases; so to get any kind of an accurate cfr, we would have to guess at all the mild cases that went undetected. I can't remember what percent that number was estimated at for the US?
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

mixin said:
They held their elections at the end of June and a week later cases had skyrocketed. We would expect to see the deaths do the same. There's also probably a lag time for deaths due to time spent on vents.

They are reporting 700,000 "detected" cases; so to get any kind of an accurate cfr, we would have to guess at all the mild cases that went undetected. I can't remember what percent that number was estimated at for the US?
Click to expand...
C stands for case (no undetected required because there are also undetected deaths).
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

http://www.infobae.com/contenidos/4...-la-Argentina-influenza-A-podrían-ser-más-700



The dead in Argentina by influenza A could be more than 700

The Deputy Minister of Health of the Nation, Max Diosque, said that already 337 deaths confirmed by the new illness, and estimated that the 400 samples under study have the same result
A total of 337 people died in Argentina from influenza A, but that figure could double if it is confirmed that some other "400 cases of deaths were for that reason, the government reported, bringing the total to over 700 deaths.

The startling figures, which this afternoon will be provided in a party official, the Deputy Minister disclosed that portfolio, Maximo Diosque, in dialogue with the press.

Said that since the pandemic began to date were 762,711 cases of flu patients, of whom 93 percent had suffered from the virus A/H1N1.

Confirm that the 400 deaths studied were caused by influenza A, believed the deputy, then skip to Argentina's first world in terms of number of deaths by the pandemic.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

niman said:
C stands for case (no undetected required because there are also undetected deaths).
Click to expand...

I suspect there is a much, much higher ratio of mild cases that haven't been tested than there are deaths.

So you are going to base the fatality rate on just the confirmed cases? How will that work for the US, then, since we've only been testing the most severe for many weeks now?

Well, I guess those million mild cases only count where a person wants them to count.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Something to keep in mind.

If the CAR is 30% and the CFR is .5% that means there are a lot of mild cases. An increase in deaths implies an increase in CFR, but not an increase in CAR.

If a virus mutates and cause increased severe and fatal cases, it does not necessarily follow that the number of mild infections increases. If the upper limit of CAR is 30% then when the CFR increases, then the relative number of mild cases decreases.

So, the increase in deaths in Argentina does not necessarily imply a corresponding increase in the number of mild cases.

Makes perfect sense to me :D
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

theforeigner said:
http://www.infobae.com/contenidos/4...-la-Argentina-influenza-A-podrían-ser-más-700



The dead in Argentina by influenza A could be more than 700

The Deputy Minister of Health of the Nation, Max Diosque, said that already 337 deaths confirmed by the new illness, and estimated that the 400 samples under study have the same result
A total of 337 people died in Argentina from influenza A, but that figure could double if it is confirmed that some other "400 cases of deaths were for that reason, the government reported, bringing the total to over 700 deaths.

The startling figures, which this afternoon will be provided in a party official, the Deputy Minister disclosed that portfolio, Maximo Diosque, in dialogue with the press.

Said that since the pandemic began to date were 762,711 cases of flu patients, of whom 93 percent had suffered from the virus A/H1N1.

Confirm that the 400 deaths studied were caused by influenza A, believed the deputy, then skip to Argentina's first world in terms of number of deaths by the pandemic.
Click to expand...
August 5 official report

http://www.msal.gov.ar/archivos/informe-influenza-pandemica-05-08-09.pdf
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Snicklefritz said:
Something to keep in mind.

If the CAR is 30% and the CFR is .5% that means there are a lot of mild cases. An increase in deaths implies an increase in CFR, but not an increase in CAR.

If a virus mutates and cause increased severe and fatal cases, it does not necessarily follow that the number of mild infections increases. If the upper limit of CAR is 30% then when the CFR increases, then the relative number of mild cases decreases.

So, the increase in deaths in Argentina does not necessarily imply a corresponding increase in the number of mild cases.

Makes perfect sense to me :D
Click to expand...

You are exactly right in that you can't base the CAR on the CFR. But I would think that all the cases should be looked at and not just the confirmed; especially when most countries are testing only the hospitalized. That sure skews the ratio of deaths compared to the total cases.

Compare now to the end of June and see if the CFR has changed much.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

OK, mixin you have a point. But, if we have no evidence that the CAR is increasing, and the number of deaths is increasing, and there is no change in the algorythm for who gets tested, then there is trend toward increasing CFR - even if we can't put an accurate number on it. Remember that CFRs and CARs from previous pandemics are retrospectives, and probably weren't determined 4 months into the event.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114120

From post#11 in the link above regarding Santa Fe province alone:
in Santa Fe On the relation between the cases and deaths recorded, pointed Ferrandini low lethality of the pandemic, recalling that last year 2354 people died from pneumonia in the province of Santa Fe "We'll see at the end of the year if we had more deaths from respiratory causes," said the official. But he also recalled that this is the first epidemic in which documented more than 18 thousand patients a month in the province.

"Until last year, we do not document?bamos if deaths from pneumonia related to influenza or not. Why do we start now, because the virus is new, because the entry was new and because the winter and there was much concern about how this virus will behave here and how can mutate, "said the official.

I havent seen what today's fatality tally is for Santa Fe alone...worth using it as an indicator given we have a hard number for last year'sdeath by pneumonia.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Shiloh said:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114120

From post#11 in the link above regarding Santa Fe province alone:
in Santa Fe On the relation between the cases and deaths recorded, pointed Ferrandini low lethality of the pandemic, recalling that last year 2354 people died from pneumonia in the province of Santa Fe "We'll see at the end of the year if we had more deaths from respiratory causes," said the official. But he also recalled that this is the first epidemic in which documented more than 18 thousand patients a month in the province.

"Until last year, we do not documentábamos if deaths from pneumonia related to influenza or not. Why do we start now, because the virus is new, because the entry was new and because the winter and there was much concern about how this virus will behave here and how can mutate, "said the official.

I havent seen what today's fatality tally is for Santa Fe alone...worth using it as an indicator given we have a hard number for last year'sdeath by pneumonia.
Click to expand...
The official Aug 5 national report has 83 lab confirmed deaths for Santa Fe province (it was 42 July 14 report, and 26 on July 11). Of course with 400 deaths waiting confirmations, all numbers could really be double the current confirmed number.
 
Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Does anybody here have expertise, or amatuer interest in trend analysis?

I'm not one to sit around the campfire and tell ghost stories to scare to the crap out myself and others, but this recent information is just a bit 'spooky'.
 
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