Argentina flu deaths double to 337

[Slithers]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

I have been mulling over the issue of case fatality rate. It has been said by many that bacterial infections cause many of the flu fatalities. It was also reported recently that cytokines like certain interferons that are released to inhibit viral replication and attatchment also signal neutrophils to stay away from the site which can leave patients open to these secondary bacterial infections. Certainly, some of the symptoms described during the 1918 flu sounded like those of known pathogenic bacteria like meningococcal meningitis and sepsis (rapid death and heliotropic cyanosis).

So I was wondering if maybe the flu virus does not need to mutate significantly to increase the death rate in the second wave. Could it just be that by the time of the second wave there is a large enough grouping of flu infected people with cytokines hampering their antibacterial responses in the lungs for epidemics of bacterial pathogens to start killing more of them? It would mean that the density of cases would influence the case fatality rate.

 

[Snicklefritz]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Good question, and it sounds a bit like 'seeding' as discussed in other threads.

Anyway, welcome to FT :applause:

 

[JimO]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

One statistic that is fairly firm is the population-based number of deaths. Based on 337 confirmed and 400 suspected deaths (total of 737), the death rate is around 18 per million inhabitants or roughly 1 in 50,000.

 

[mixin]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

The number of infections also exceeds the annual average. Since early this year to 4 last month, there were 602,083 cases of ETI (ILI for us), while the average for the past five years for the same period was 468,976 cases.

That is from Shiloh's Aug 3 post. Considering they are in their winter and in the middle of a pandemic and 4+ weeks after a huge turnout for elections, I'm surprised the numbers aren't much greater. Especially since 469,000 is a 5 year average, which I assume is for the same time period.

 

[mixin]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

... I'm not one to sit around the campfire and tell ghost stories to scare to the crap out myself and others, but this recent information is just a bit 'spooky'.

Yeah, right!!

 

[Slithers]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Good question, and it sounds a bit like 'seeding' as discussed in other threads.

Anyway, welcome to FT :applause:

Thanks.

:tiphat:

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Welcome Slithers, that was a good question.

 

[Commonground]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

August 5 official report

http://www.msal.gov.ar/archivos/informe-influenza-pandemica-05-08-09.pdf

So I guess the seasonal flu has not mixed thus far, with H1N1A. Correct?

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

So I guess the seasonal flu has not mixed thus far, with H1N1A. Correct?

I'm seeing a large amount of evidence in the available sequences that the H1N1 Swine Flu is recombining with H1N1 Seasonal Flu.

 

[Commonground]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Thank you so much Mamabird. I really appreciate the update.

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

I'm seeing a large amount of evidence in the available sequences that the H1N1 Swine Flu is recombining with H1N1 Seasonal Flu.

Some examples include:

In the HA segment of CA/04 and its variant family: S91P and V323I
In the HA segment of NJ/02, 03, and 04: N279D

In the NA segment of CA/05 and its variant family: S95G

In the NP segment of TX/15: G16D
In the NP segment of CO/03 and Neb/02: V217I
In the NP segmnet of SD/05: L283P

One has to assume that these changes are due to some level of recombination with Seasonal Flu, or that the human hosts are somehow forcing these changes on Swine Flu H1N1 as a matter of fitness.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Mamabird, so this is esentially a 1918 Re-Run then?

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Mamabird, so this is esentially a 1918 Re-Run then?

Not be any stretch of the imagination.

Except for the HA segment, the other seven gene segments lack many changes that would make them comparable to any of the three recent pandemics (including 1918), and to the Seasonal Flu H1N1 and H3N2 viruses.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

So recombining with this, would the seasonal vaccine provide any protection? or is that a still no.

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Not be any stretch of the imagination.

Except for the HA segment, the other seven gene segments lack many changes that would make them comparable to any of the three recent pandemics (including 1918), and to the Seasonal Flu H1N1 and H3N2 viruses.

Some examples here would include, among others:

In the PB2 segment: A199S, L(F)475M, D567N and E627K.
A viable F2 protein coded by the PB1 segment.
In the PA segment: P28L, D55N, and T552S.
In the NP segment: L283P and F313Y.
In the MP segment: I15V, K101R, T121A, A166V and N207S.
In M2: E16G and S20N.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

The science behind all of these viruses is very interesting.

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

So recombining with this, would the seasonal vaccine provide any protection? or is that a still no.

Unfortunately, the Seasonal Flu H1N1 vaccine will provide little protection from being infected by the Swine Flu H1N1 due to the significant differences in the virus epitopes and the HA and NA antigene in the vaccine. However, because the seasonal vaccines have PR/34 antigenes as well, there may be a slight chance that the Seasonal Flu vaccine will provide some protection against severity of illness, once a person is infected. That may not be worth much given that the Swine Flu virus, in its current state, is less severe than Seasonal H1N1.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Not be any stretch of the imagination.

Except for the HA segment, the other seven gene segments lack many changes that would make them comparable to any of the three recent pandemics (including 1918), and to the Seasonal Flu H1N1 and H3N2 viruses.

Mamabird,

Does it really have to be a re-run of 1918 though, genetically?

Correct me if I am wrong on these thoughts...

1) We currently know certain genetic markers that seem to be causes of high virulence in influenza.
2) We know what 1957 looked like.
3) We currently know what 2009 looks like.
4) We do not know all the genetic markers that make influenza highly pathogenic.
5) Ergo, while we have historical data which shows the past, we do not know what mutations 2009 H1N1 will pick up and it could very well pick up a mutation that we do not know anything about, which might be highly pathogenic. (In essence, if we are only looking for specific markers and we do not see them, it doesn't rule out the possibility that this influenza picks up novel combination that makes it highly pathogenic)

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

Mamabird,

Does it really have to be a re-run of 1918 though, genetically?

Correct me if I am wrong on these thoughts...

1) We currently know certain genetic markers that seem to be causes of high virulence in influenza.
2) We know what 1957 looked like.
3) We currently know what 2009 looks like.
4) We do not know all the genetic markers that make influenza highly pathogenic.
5) Ergo, while we have historical data which shows the past, we do not know what mutations 2009 H1N1 will pick up and it could very well pick up a mutation that we do not know anything about, which might be highly pathogenic. (In essence, if we are only looking for specific markers and we do not see them, it doesn't rule out the possibility that this influenza picks up novel combination that makes it highly pathogenic)

Yes, I totally agree.

We can not know what the future holds when it comes to these viruses and how they continually evolve. However, based on what we know today from available gene sequences and the epidemiology of the Swine Flu virus as it spreads across the globe, it is not 1918-like at this stage, or for that matter 1957-like as pointed out by GSGS in another post. Based on the new school guidance provided this morning by HHS and CDC, I believe they would agree.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: Argentina flu deaths double to 337

it is not 1918-like at this stage...

Mamabird,

Do we know this for sure?

I mean, we know we didn't have the 1918 first wave virus.

I don't remember the dates of deaths of the people for the 1918 strains that we do have. Were they from early August, September, October, November?

For me, the uncertainty lies in the fact that the 1918 strain that we do have is a single instance of the virus, with specific genetic traits. Those 1918 strains represent points in time and not evolutionary timelines (like we have with 2009 H1N1).