I think a lot of factors are the drivers, a lot of people wanted to see people for holiday meals but were willing to follow restrictions otherwise. Travel restrictions have been ramped up in the New Year, there is new US leadership that is taking the virus seriously. People are afraid of the variants enough to follow the rules. The vaccine is now protecting the most vulnerable and fewer people are bothering to get tested because they feel the vulnerable are a lot safer. Certainly, there could be immune and seasonally-based drivers, the people that didn't hunker down and are at risk may have reached a herd immunity of sorts.
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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)
- Thread starter kiwibird
- Start date
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
bump this
bertrand789
Well-known member
Et si le respect de l'hom?ostasie, et tous les vaccins, actuels, ne pouvaient que rendre l'immunit? collective impossible, pour ce genre de virus, on ferait quoi ?
Dit autrement, une vraie description de tous les sus du facteur E est envisageable ou ?
Sharon, c'est une des limites, et la valeur de ce lieu:
?clairer les possibles sans faire de choix ...
Dit autrement, une vraie description de tous les sus du facteur E est envisageable ou ?
Sharon, c'est une des limites, et la valeur de ce lieu:
?clairer les possibles sans faire de choix ...
What we may be seeing is a confluence of a number of things, which collectively is driving down the number cases. Here is a list of things which come to mind:
-Lockdowns in multiple nations are taking effect.
-The number of those vaccinated is now significant
-The numbers of those who caught Covid before and immediately after the holidays increased awareness and caused people to become more careful
-Could new variants be evading the tests, causing more false negatives? (Just recently I have heard of three potential false negatives)
-Significant numbers of people have caught the virus (knowingly and unknowingly) and recovered and those numbers are effecting new transmission
-More people are now taking Vitamin D or some other effective immune boosting folk remedy? (I believe Vitamin D is very important, but this has not be en firmly established scientifically to help prevent Covid.)
-Some unknown factor at work
Can anyone think of additional things I have missed?
I think that while all or some of those things are driving the numbers down, the new variants seem to continue to gain traction. I believe what we have right now is a sort of reprieve before the next wave. It would be nice if I were wrong. But I am not optimistic.
-Lockdowns in multiple nations are taking effect.
-The number of those vaccinated is now significant
-The numbers of those who caught Covid before and immediately after the holidays increased awareness and caused people to become more careful
-Could new variants be evading the tests, causing more false negatives? (Just recently I have heard of three potential false negatives)
-Significant numbers of people have caught the virus (knowingly and unknowingly) and recovered and those numbers are effecting new transmission
-More people are now taking Vitamin D or some other effective immune boosting folk remedy? (I believe Vitamin D is very important, but this has not be en firmly established scientifically to help prevent Covid.)
-Some unknown factor at work
Can anyone think of additional things I have missed?
I think that while all or some of those things are driving the numbers down, the new variants seem to continue to gain traction. I believe what we have right now is a sort of reprieve before the next wave. It would be nice if I were wrong. But I am not optimistic.
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
Even though the vaccine is targeted towards the vulnerable and HCW's, etc, everyone is still being encouraged to wear masks and distance, so I don't think that could explain the numbers. Also, Alabama has the downturn and they are aren't getting the vaccine out as aggressively as other states.
Blacknail's point about people not going for testing as much could be in play, though. I think it is possible the virus could be changing if it was an accidental lab release.
https://academic.oup.com/ve/article/5/2/vez045/5625778
"Viruses are widely used as vectors for heterologous gene expression in cultured cells or natural hosts, and therefore a large number of viruses with exogenous sequences inserted into their genomes have been engineered. Many of these engineered viruses are viable and express heterologous proteins at high levels, but the inserted sequences often prove to be unstable over time and are rapidly lost, limiting heterologous protein expression. Although virologists are aware that inserted sequences can be unstable, processes leading to insert instability are rarely considered from an evolutionary perspective."
Blacknail's point about people not going for testing as much could be in play, though. I think it is possible the virus could be changing if it was an accidental lab release.
https://academic.oup.com/ve/article/5/2/vez045/5625778
"Viruses are widely used as vectors for heterologous gene expression in cultured cells or natural hosts, and therefore a large number of viruses with exogenous sequences inserted into their genomes have been engineered. Many of these engineered viruses are viable and express heterologous proteins at high levels, but the inserted sequences often prove to be unstable over time and are rapidly lost, limiting heterologous protein expression. Although virologists are aware that inserted sequences can be unstable, processes leading to insert instability are rarely considered from an evolutionary perspective."
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
I have just seen a item on the internet called "COVID Derangement Syndrome". This is in reference to the inflation in the media, government, etc. of all things COVID. Since the illness affects most severely (to date) the elderly, there is a belief that the entire pandemic setting is overhyped. This concept includes the belief that many entities are financially benefitting from the pandemic and is a key motivation to push the pandemic mantra.
We do not do cancel culture here so I wanted to mention that there is a name to the concept that the COVID-19 pandemic is highly overblown.
_____________________________
I believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is a real threat but I also believe that many are seeking to take advantage of a bad situation. As I have been saying for a long time - assess your personal situation and act accordingly. I am not a supporter of large, hard, lengthy lockdowns. This was never in any plan that I saw.
We do not do cancel culture here so I wanted to mention that there is a name to the concept that the COVID-19 pandemic is highly overblown.
_____________________________
I believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is a real threat but I also believe that many are seeking to take advantage of a bad situation. As I have been saying for a long time - assess your personal situation and act accordingly. I am not a supporter of large, hard, lengthy lockdowns. This was never in any plan that I saw.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
UAB doctor: U.S. could reach herd immunity by late spring
LOCAL NEWS
by: Michael Clark
Posted: Feb 24, 2021 / 08:26 PM CST / Updated: Feb 24, 2021 / 08:26 PM CST
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) — A doctor at UAB believes the United States could reach herd immunity in the fight against COVID-19 in late spring or early summer.
Dr. Suzanne Judd, a UAB epidemiologist, said there were a lot of factors to be considered. She remains cautiously optimistic about the decrease in case numbers and hospitalizations.
...
Scientists believe 72% of the population needs to be exposed or vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
...
“Current estimates are that we will see it sometime late spring, early Summer in Alabama. Somewhere between May and June is likely, but this depends on many factors,” said Judd.
...
https://www.cbs42.com/news/local/uab-doctor-u-s-could-reach-herd-immunity-by-late-spring/
LOCAL NEWS
by: Michael Clark
Posted: Feb 24, 2021 / 08:26 PM CST / Updated: Feb 24, 2021 / 08:26 PM CST
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) — A doctor at UAB believes the United States could reach herd immunity in the fight against COVID-19 in late spring or early summer.
Dr. Suzanne Judd, a UAB epidemiologist, said there were a lot of factors to be considered. She remains cautiously optimistic about the decrease in case numbers and hospitalizations.
...
Scientists believe 72% of the population needs to be exposed or vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
...
“Current estimates are that we will see it sometime late spring, early Summer in Alabama. Somewhere between May and June is likely, but this depends on many factors,” said Judd.
...
https://www.cbs42.com/news/local/uab-doctor-u-s-could-reach-herd-immunity-by-late-spring/
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
I wondered if Joe Boever was walking back to his truck to retrieve his masks the night SD's Attorney General struck and killed him. This photo is one of the saddest I've ever seen:
https://twitter.com/AustinGossSD/status/1360300307733905411/photo/4
Certainly there are other risks in life than this disease such as getting injured or killed by a driver watching his cell phone instead of the road. I think the criticism is not that the new coronavirus disease itself is minimally harmful, but that the reaction to it is imbalanced in the media and in lockdown policies. However, those making money or increasing power from the pandemic are not deranged at all in my opinion.
https://www.aier.org/article/why-i-believe-that-covid-derangement-syndrome-is-real/
https://twitter.com/AustinGossSD/status/1360300307733905411/photo/4
Certainly there are other risks in life than this disease such as getting injured or killed by a driver watching his cell phone instead of the road. I think the criticism is not that the new coronavirus disease itself is minimally harmful, but that the reaction to it is imbalanced in the media and in lockdown policies. However, those making money or increasing power from the pandemic are not deranged at all in my opinion.
https://www.aier.org/article/why-i-believe-that-covid-derangement-syndrome-is-real/
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...y-pandemic-could-be-ending-column/6810858002/
Robert M. Kaplan
Opinion contributor
In early January, as new COVID-19 cases were at an all time high, I published an op-ed predicting that new cases would soon decline and that the December-January surge was likely to be the last one. The column was not well received by colleagues whose models indicated cases would continue to rise throughout the winter. But, since mid-January, new cases have fallen precipitously. Most of the different explanations for the decline are probably incorrect. Here’s why:...
Robert M. Kaplan
Opinion contributor
In early January, as new COVID-19 cases were at an all time high, I published an op-ed predicting that new cases would soon decline and that the December-January surge was likely to be the last one. The column was not well received by colleagues whose models indicated cases would continue to rise throughout the winter. But, since mid-January, new cases have fallen precipitously. Most of the different explanations for the decline are probably incorrect. Here’s why:...
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
3 comments
#292.1
blacknail commented
February 21, 2021, 01:31 AM
I think a lot of factors are the drivers, a lot of people wanted to see people for holiday meals but were willing to follow restrictions otherwise. Travel restrictions have been ramped up in the New Year, there is new US leadership that is taking the virus seriously. People are afraid of the variants enough to follow the rules. The vaccine is now protecting the most vulnerable and fewer people are bothering to get tested because they feel the vulnerable are a lot safer. Certainly, there could be immune and seasonally-based drivers, the people that didn't hunker down and are at risk may have reached a herd immunity of sorts.- Edit
- Flag
#292.2
Okieman commented
February 21, 2021, 04:16 PM
What we may be seeing is a confluence of a number of things, which collectively is driving down the number cases. Here is a list of things which come to mind:
-Lockdowns in multiple nations are taking effect.
-The number of those vaccinated is now significant
-The numbers of those who caught Covid before and immediately after the holidays increased awareness and caused people to become more careful
-Could new variants be evading the tests, causing more false negatives? (Just recently I have heard of three potential false negatives)
-Significant numbers of people have caught the virus (knowingly and unknowingly) and recovered and those numbers are effecting new transmission
-More people are now taking Vitamin D or some other effective immune boosting folk remedy? (I believe Vitamin D is very important, but this has not be en firmly established scientifically to help prevent Covid.)
-Some unknown factor at work
Can anyone think of additional things I have missed?
I think that while all or some of those things are driving the numbers down, the new variants seem to continue to gain traction. I believe what we have right now is a sort of reprieve before the next wave. It would be nice if I were wrong. But I am not optimistic.- Edit
- Flag
#292.3
Emily commented
February 22, 2021, 03:41 AM
Even though the vaccine is targeted towards the vulnerable and HCW's, etc, everyone is still being encouraged to wear masks and distance, so I don't think that could explain the numbers. Also, Alabama has the downturn and they are aren't getting the vaccine out as aggressively as other states.
Blacknail's point about people not going for testing as much could be in play, though. I think it is possible the virus could be changing if it was an accidental lab release.
https://academic.oup.com/ve/article/5/2/vez045/5625778
"Viruses are widely used as vectors for heterologous gene expression in cultured cells or natural hosts, and therefore a large number of viruses with exogenous sequences inserted into their genomes have been engineered. Many of these engineered viruses are viable and express heterologous proteins at high levels, but the inserted sequences often prove to be unstable over time and are rapidly lost, limiting heterologous protein expression. Although virologists are aware that inserted sequences can be unstable, processes leading to insert instability are rarely considered from an evolutionary perspective."
Please see:
W.H.O. - "WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed" i.e. Ct scoring - January 21, 2021
bertrand789
Well-known member
La d?livrance d'un pass sanitaire, suite ? une vaccination non st?rilisante est une forme de renoncement: le renoncement ? la mondialisation des variants.
Si, suite ? un cas de rhume, d?sormais d'?t? ou d'hiver, on ferme une ?cole, un r?giment ou une usine, on va devoir s'astreindre ? repenser toutes les organisations soci?tales.
Ces virus sont d?sormais dans toutes les populations humaines mondiales et dans bien des populations animales.
Ce ne serait pas le r?le de L'O.M.S d'enfin pr?ciser comment aborder un rhume de fa?on intelligente ?
Si, suite ? un cas de rhume, d?sormais d'?t? ou d'hiver, on ferme une ?cole, un r?giment ou une usine, on va devoir s'astreindre ? repenser toutes les organisations soci?tales.
Ces virus sont d?sormais dans toutes les populations humaines mondiales et dans bien des populations animales.
Ce ne serait pas le r?le de L'O.M.S d'enfin pr?ciser comment aborder un rhume de fa?on intelligente ?
On this graph it shows the USA reaching the peak in cases on January 8, 2021, and then rapidly decreasing.
https://www.google.com/search?q=usa...i433j0i271.1920j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So the reduction in reported cases began quite a bit before January 21, 2021.
Here is Canada:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=5g...hUKEwjm593YxY3vAhVKw1kKHXmLDG4Q4dUDCA0&uact=5
And Japan:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=BQ...hUKEwjM-sTzw43vAhUp1VkKHUjZDwEQ4dUDCA0&uact=5
And South Africa:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=Rw...hUKEwjDpPmGxo3vAhVsplkKHfPDA6wQ4dUDCA0&uact=5
Notice how similar the graphs of very different parts of the world as far as the timing of the drop goes. Why? Of course there are others that are quite different. See India's graph. But if you look at the graph for the United Kingdom and Argentina....they are almost the same as the US, Japan and South Africa graph with the drop occurring right after January 8, 2021. I know this follows Christmas and New Years Day and that is a common factor, but why January 8. The thing that comes to mind is that a whole lot of folks got infected during those preceding couple of weeks, peaking on January 8, 202. And all of a sudden, large numbers of people all over the world at about the same time, came to the point that they knew someone(s) close to them that caught Covid and realized that it was real and it was dangerous. Intellectually they may have known but a part of them still denied. But that was no longer possible. About that time I lost a classmate that I grew up with from Covid. A co-worker lost his wife from Covid. I could mention more. But I have to wonder whether this simultaneous rise around the world also finally initiated a simultaneous realization in a large number of people that "This is real and this could kill me."
https://www.google.com/search?q=usa...i433j0i271.1920j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So the reduction in reported cases began quite a bit before January 21, 2021.
Here is Canada:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=5g...hUKEwjm593YxY3vAhVKw1kKHXmLDG4Q4dUDCA0&uact=5
And Japan:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=BQ...hUKEwjM-sTzw43vAhUp1VkKHUjZDwEQ4dUDCA0&uact=5
And South Africa:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=Rw...hUKEwjDpPmGxo3vAhVsplkKHfPDA6wQ4dUDCA0&uact=5
Notice how similar the graphs of very different parts of the world as far as the timing of the drop goes. Why? Of course there are others that are quite different. See India's graph. But if you look at the graph for the United Kingdom and Argentina....they are almost the same as the US, Japan and South Africa graph with the drop occurring right after January 8, 2021. I know this follows Christmas and New Years Day and that is a common factor, but why January 8. The thing that comes to mind is that a whole lot of folks got infected during those preceding couple of weeks, peaking on January 8, 202. And all of a sudden, large numbers of people all over the world at about the same time, came to the point that they knew someone(s) close to them that caught Covid and realized that it was real and it was dangerous. Intellectually they may have known but a part of them still denied. But that was no longer possible. About that time I lost a classmate that I grew up with from Covid. A co-worker lost his wife from Covid. I could mention more. But I have to wonder whether this simultaneous rise around the world also finally initiated a simultaneous realization in a large number of people that "This is real and this could kill me."
I don't think that herd immunity is an achievable goal personally, as the virus will just evolve to evade immunity (as we are seeing I think in places like Manaus)- UNLESS there is a point at which the virus is unable to reconfigure and remain viable. I have taken a look and can find no example of any coronavirus where herd immunity is gained in any population - animal or human, so cannot think of a reason why this would occur here. I guess only time will answer that question.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
16 FEBRUARY 2021
The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means
...
Childhood virus
Five years from now, when childcare centres call parents to tell them that their child has a runny nose and a fever, the COVID-19 pandemic might seem a distant memory. But there’s a chance the virus that killed more than 1.5 million people in 2020 alone will be the culprit.
This is one scenario that scientists foresee for SARS-CoV-2. The virus sticks around, but once people develop some immunity to it — either through natural infection or vaccination — they won’t come down with severe symptoms. The virus would become a foe first encountered in early childhood, when it typically causes mild infection or none at all, says Jennie Lavine, an infectious-disease researcher at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia.
Scientists consider this possible because that’s how the four endemic coronaviruses, called OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1, behave. At least three of these viruses have probably been circulating in human populations for hundreds of years; two of them are responsible for roughly 15% of respiratory infections. Using data from previous studies, Lavine and her colleagues developed a model that shows how most children first come down with these viruses before the age of 6 and develop immunity to them1. That defence wanes pretty quickly so it is not sufficient to block reinfection entirely, but it seems to protect adults from getting sick, says Lavine. Even in children, the first infection is relatively mild.
...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2
The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means
...
Childhood virus
Five years from now, when childcare centres call parents to tell them that their child has a runny nose and a fever, the COVID-19 pandemic might seem a distant memory. But there’s a chance the virus that killed more than 1.5 million people in 2020 alone will be the culprit.
This is one scenario that scientists foresee for SARS-CoV-2. The virus sticks around, but once people develop some immunity to it — either through natural infection or vaccination — they won’t come down with severe symptoms. The virus would become a foe first encountered in early childhood, when it typically causes mild infection or none at all, says Jennie Lavine, an infectious-disease researcher at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia.
Scientists consider this possible because that’s how the four endemic coronaviruses, called OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1, behave. At least three of these viruses have probably been circulating in human populations for hundreds of years; two of them are responsible for roughly 15% of respiratory infections. Using data from previous studies, Lavine and her colleagues developed a model that shows how most children first come down with these viruses before the age of 6 and develop immunity to them1. That defence wanes pretty quickly so it is not sufficient to block reinfection entirely, but it seems to protect adults from getting sick, says Lavine. Even in children, the first infection is relatively mild.
...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Translation Google
After having brought the epidemic under control, China vaccinates without urgency: a profitable "sacrifice"?
afp
Published on 07/03/21 at 8:57 am - Updated 07/03/21 at 9:06 am
...
Faced with the relative apathy, China is trying to react: it hopes to have vaccinated 40% of its 1.4 billion inhabitants by the end of June, according to respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan, figure in the fight against Covid in the country.
?Emergency? vaccinations had already started last summer for exposed groups (caregivers, employees of state enterprises or students going abroad). Since December, cities, neighborhood committees and businesses have gradually offered 18-59 year olds to be vaccinated...
Beijing has so far approved four vaccines, all Chinese. However, two did not get the green light from the authorities until the end of February.
As a precaution, people 60 and over are almost excluded from vaccination, because manufacturers have not yet published precise data from clinical tests on seniors.
...
Millions of Chinese vaccines are going abroad, in the form of sales or donations, in order to "help the international community to overcome the epidemic", say the authorities.
According to state media accounts, orders and donations currently represent some 560 million doses. China says it offers free vaccines to 69 countries.
...
https://www.lalibre.be/internationa...n-sacrifice-rentable-60448500d8ad5809d0bd2362
After having brought the epidemic under control, China vaccinates without urgency: a profitable "sacrifice"?
afp
Published on 07/03/21 at 8:57 am - Updated 07/03/21 at 9:06 am
...
Faced with the relative apathy, China is trying to react: it hopes to have vaccinated 40% of its 1.4 billion inhabitants by the end of June, according to respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan, figure in the fight against Covid in the country.
?Emergency? vaccinations had already started last summer for exposed groups (caregivers, employees of state enterprises or students going abroad). Since December, cities, neighborhood committees and businesses have gradually offered 18-59 year olds to be vaccinated...
Beijing has so far approved four vaccines, all Chinese. However, two did not get the green light from the authorities until the end of February.
As a precaution, people 60 and over are almost excluded from vaccination, because manufacturers have not yet published precise data from clinical tests on seniors.
...
Millions of Chinese vaccines are going abroad, in the form of sales or donations, in order to "help the international community to overcome the epidemic", say the authorities.
According to state media accounts, orders and donations currently represent some 560 million doses. China says it offers free vaccines to 69 countries.
...
https://www.lalibre.be/internationa...n-sacrifice-rentable-60448500d8ad5809d0bd2362
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Now my age group is going to be authorized to obtain a COVID-19 vaccine in Florida. link However, after talking with my family I am going to wait until June for the following reasons:
1) A doctor with many decades of experience once told me to wait 6 months to take any new vaccine.
2) There is no choice of which vaccine you will receive. It is a possibility that I could receive the new J&J vaccine that has only been out - literally a week - with zero track record of real life mass vaccinations.
3) There is another person living in my household who will not be authorized to take the vaccine for some time. So my life style will remain the same even if I am vaccinated. I will not be free to eat inside restaurants or go to any events, for example.
4) There is a question about how well the existing vaccines will cover the new variants. i.e. Brazil P.1. I might prefer to take an updated vaccine later in the summer.
I know this decision is counter to the vaccine push seen all over the media, governments, etc. But it is my private choice. As I have said many times, FluTrackers is independent media and we do not owe anyone anything.
I would love to take a "magic pill" and have all of this pandemic situation behind me. If my entire household could take a real life proven safe and effective pill or vaccine, I would take it today.
Until then - I will continue to life a restricted life. I do not go out except to drive around and visit a couple of people in driveways. I always wear a mask (even outside) around others as I do not want to contribute to any burden on the health care system.
This is not medical advice. If you have any questions about vaccines, consult your medical provider.
1) A doctor with many decades of experience once told me to wait 6 months to take any new vaccine.
2) There is no choice of which vaccine you will receive. It is a possibility that I could receive the new J&J vaccine that has only been out - literally a week - with zero track record of real life mass vaccinations.
3) There is another person living in my household who will not be authorized to take the vaccine for some time. So my life style will remain the same even if I am vaccinated. I will not be free to eat inside restaurants or go to any events, for example.
4) There is a question about how well the existing vaccines will cover the new variants. i.e. Brazil P.1. I might prefer to take an updated vaccine later in the summer.
I know this decision is counter to the vaccine push seen all over the media, governments, etc. But it is my private choice. As I have said many times, FluTrackers is independent media and we do not owe anyone anything.
I would love to take a "magic pill" and have all of this pandemic situation behind me. If my entire household could take a real life proven safe and effective pill or vaccine, I would take it today.
Until then - I will continue to life a restricted life. I do not go out except to drive around and visit a couple of people in driveways. I always wear a mask (even outside) around others as I do not want to contribute to any burden on the health care system.
This is not medical advice. If you have any questions about vaccines, consult your medical provider.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Insanity in a pandemic. My opinion.
https://www.news-journalonline.com/...ay-3-daytona-beach-bike-week-2021/4626161001/
https://www.news-journalonline.com/...ay-3-daytona-beach-bike-week-2021/4626161001/
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
This article was written in September 2020
The deadly viruses that vanished without trace
By Zaria Gorvett
...
Like its close relative Covid-19, Sars had many of the necessary qualities for world domination ? it was an RNA virus, meaning it was able to evolve rapidly, and it was spread through droplets expelled when breathing, which are hard to avoid. At the time, many experts were concerned that the virus could cause devastation on the same level as the HIV crisis, or even the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected a third of the world?s population and killed 50 million.
Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived.
...
Unfortunately this situation is extremely unusual. Other than Sars, only two other viruses have ever been driven to extinction on purpose ? smallpox and rinderpest, which affects cattle. ?It?s not trivial. It?s really very difficult when you have a virus that?s well adapted,? says Stanley Perlman, a microbiologist at the University of Iowa.
...
?Sars went away because there's no other obvious host,? says Perlman. Sars is thought to have made the leap to humans via a palm civet, a tree-dwelling jungle mammal that?s considered a delicacy in China. Perlman points out that the virus couldn?t just retreat back to this species, because they aren?t commonly infected ? the individual animal that gave it to a human was probably one of very few which were infected, and may have caught it directly from a bat.
The same cannot be said for Covid-19... ?With Covid-19, the reservoir is now us,? says Perlman. In fact, it?s become so much of a human virus that scientists have begun to wonder if it will spread the other way around ? from humans to wildlife, in a kind of ?reverse spillover?, if you will. This would make it even harder to stamp out.
This brings us to another possible scenario, which involves viruses that exist continuously in people. While they may well be with our species forever, it turns out individual lineages of virus vanish remarkably regularly.
...
It turns out that anyone who died before 1893 will never have been infected with any of the influenza A strains that exist today. That?s because every flu virus that existed in humans until about 120 years ago has gone extinct. The strain that caused the 1918 pandemic has also disappeared, as has the one that led to the 1957 avian flu outbreak, which killed up to 116,000 people in the US, and the type of flu that was circulating in 2009, before swine flu emerged.
...
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct
The deadly viruses that vanished without trace
By Zaria Gorvett
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Like its close relative Covid-19, Sars had many of the necessary qualities for world domination ? it was an RNA virus, meaning it was able to evolve rapidly, and it was spread through droplets expelled when breathing, which are hard to avoid. At the time, many experts were concerned that the virus could cause devastation on the same level as the HIV crisis, or even the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected a third of the world?s population and killed 50 million.
Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived.
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Unfortunately this situation is extremely unusual. Other than Sars, only two other viruses have ever been driven to extinction on purpose ? smallpox and rinderpest, which affects cattle. ?It?s not trivial. It?s really very difficult when you have a virus that?s well adapted,? says Stanley Perlman, a microbiologist at the University of Iowa.
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?Sars went away because there's no other obvious host,? says Perlman. Sars is thought to have made the leap to humans via a palm civet, a tree-dwelling jungle mammal that?s considered a delicacy in China. Perlman points out that the virus couldn?t just retreat back to this species, because they aren?t commonly infected ? the individual animal that gave it to a human was probably one of very few which were infected, and may have caught it directly from a bat.
The same cannot be said for Covid-19... ?With Covid-19, the reservoir is now us,? says Perlman. In fact, it?s become so much of a human virus that scientists have begun to wonder if it will spread the other way around ? from humans to wildlife, in a kind of ?reverse spillover?, if you will. This would make it even harder to stamp out.
This brings us to another possible scenario, which involves viruses that exist continuously in people. While they may well be with our species forever, it turns out individual lineages of virus vanish remarkably regularly.
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It turns out that anyone who died before 1893 will never have been infected with any of the influenza A strains that exist today. That?s because every flu virus that existed in humans until about 120 years ago has gone extinct. The strain that caused the 1918 pandemic has also disappeared, as has the one that led to the 1957 avian flu outbreak, which killed up to 116,000 people in the US, and the type of flu that was circulating in 2009, before swine flu emerged.
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https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct
SARS1 was a very different beast and not difficult to eradicate. It had almost no asymptomatic cases, no mild cases and the patient did not become infectious until they were very obviously ill. As a consequence once we had a handle on the method of spread HCWs, who were its main victims, could apply adequate PPE and it ran out of targets. Sadly there was never any chance of doing this with SARS2 as most infection comes from people who do not know they are shedding, its only saving grace is it has a far lower case fatality rate. Had it had SARS1's CFR we really would be in deep guano - it may not feel like it but we got lucky this time.