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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

il y a bien une hypoth?se incroyable : ils vous auraient lu ?


Au fait, le lieu le plus simple pour r?colter des postillons, ce me semble le t?l?phone portable. Veuillez souffler sur votre t?l?phone, je pose ma bandelette.

C'est quand m?me autre chose que le pr?l?vement anal .

Il y a une tra?abilit? de ces engins, si elle est programm?e pour ne pas remonter au proprio, que cela est entre les mains de communaut?s, on doit produire bien des faits et vite ... Cela peut aller au del? de ce que bien des ?pid?miologistes envisagent.

Mais cela existe encore des jeunes qui ont un cerveau ?
 
Agree with kiwi bird. Personal observation. Here in Australia it would be fair to say that public concern is in waves and social distancing and mask wearing increases when we have a little bit of community transmission. When the numbers drop back to zero, less social distancing and mask wearing all but ceases. As is the case now. Australia and NZ would be good examples of behaviour following increased transmission due to our very low case numbers.
 
Just a thought. Would it have anything to do with false negatives in the first 10 days after exposure to the uk variant. We know that the UK variant is gaining rapid dominance. Subjective observation. It would seem that our Australian authorities are having trouble identifying the UK variant in its early asymptomatic stage (first week or two). https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02...a-live-news-covid-19-latest-victoria/13151164
I seem to recall another infected employee also returned false negatives.
It would seem reasonable to assume that false negatives would tend to cause an infected person to initially ignore symptoms ie ‘can’t be SarCov2 I must be getting a cold’ ‘just a sore throat’ ......The two factors together could cause a 3 or more week drop in identified numbers. Happy to be shown my error.
 
we are in lockdown, awaiting B.1.1.7.
That may explain the decline in most of North America and Europe.
Or maybe also immunity from the wave starting in October
Or the warm weather in Dec.+Jan
 
For those who do not know, Gsgs is located in Germany. I have noticed over the years that these type of global outbreaks come in waves as the virus runs out of new fuel. Many European countries have been in strict lockdowns since December. If you keep humans from interacting with each other, they will not transmit infectious diseases to each other. Plus, pomeagher has a good point.
 
Vibrant62 said:
We know that humidity has an effect on Covid transmission - probably due to precipitation of aerosols from the atmosphere along with small droplets. Temperature appears to have less of an effect, although virus is longer lived in very cold conditions, which are prevalent across large swathes of the N. Hemisphere at the moment. UV radiation levels also would appear to have a damping down effect, which may account for the late spring / summer lull we saw last year, but it is far too early in the season for raised UV radiation levels. One of the other biggest transmission factors is human behaviour, and tendency to gather in crowds indoors in poorly ventilated spaces increases transmission.. so could recent significant falls in case numbers be due to cold weather and people staying indoors with family more, i.e staying more isolated perhaps?

However, even with all those factors considered, the case loads have also been falling hard across the N. Hemisphere where current environmental conditions might suggest that transmission should be increased, and we are also seeing falls in areas where lockdown measures have not been very severe, and overall seroprevalence is low. So why is this happening?

Whilst searching for an answer, I wondered if space weather could have anything to do with it (its the only thing that could have influenced the whole N. Hemisphere at the same time that I can think of) but data is sketchy, and it is quite a bit of a 'reach'. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/...gion-2797.html.

It is too soon for vaccines to have had such a marked effect across such a large geographical area also.

Any ideas anyone? It certainly is a puzzle...
Click to expand...

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...nside-the-face-masks-may-help-combat-covid-19

I should think that humidity is certainly a factor - to be sure - no-one in the UK - or it looks like Europe and much of North America - are getting much in the way of natural D3! Still cold and people stuck indoors.
 
JJackson,
Thank you very much for explaining the difference between ADE and OAS and the fine points of analyzing COVID antibodies. It sounds like there is a good basis for the findings in the Memphis surgeon's death as far as the sequence of events - the infection preceded at least one of the vaccine doses then.
I will keep an eye on your thread. A lot of it is over my head but I'll be happy to learn what I can. I like your optimism about the variant strain issue.
 
I remember, I checked humidity last year but gave it up.
Tehran was so dry but had still so many cases.
Then I checked temperature and there was a cold-spill in Europe
on Sep.25 and cases went up almost simultaneously in multiple
European Countries in the week after Oct04.

But it didn't match with some other examples (USA,...), so I (almost) gave up on that idea too.

Then there was also a failed hurrican in S-USA giving a cold-spill in NM,CO
and cases went up subsequently

http://magictour.free.fr/wea4.GIF
http://magictour.free.fr/wea1110.GIF
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/wea...PRE=&MONAT=&OFFS=&SORT=&MM=11&YY=2020&WEEK=12
 
Feb20 , % sequences with N501Y:
UK:53,DK:22,US:08,CH:20,NL:27,F:53,E:26,B:35,ICE:15,LUX:20,
I:69,IRE:79,DE:13,POR:33,SW:42,AUT:27,N:26,SA:37,
LIT:00,AUS:60,ISR:27,FIN:38,CZ:25,CDN:56,
TUR:03,POL:11,HUN:99,IND:33,BRA:00:,SLK:79
EGY:03,NIG:68,MAC:00,SGP:18,GHA:46,ARU:49
https://covariants.org/per-country
 
Vibrant62 said:
We know that humidity has an effect on Covid transmission - probably due to precipitation of aerosols from the atmosphere along with small droplets. Temperature appears to have less of an effect, although virus is longer lived in very cold conditions, which are prevalent across large swathes of the N. Hemisphere at the moment. UV radiation levels also would appear to have a damping down effect, which may account for the late spring / summer lull we saw last year, but it is far too early in the season for raised UV radiation levels. One of the other biggest transmission factors is human behaviour, and tendency to gather in crowds indoors in poorly ventilated spaces increases transmission.. so could recent significant falls in case numbers be due to cold weather and people staying indoors with family more, i.e staying more isolated perhaps?

However, even with all those factors considered, the case loads have also been falling hard across the N. Hemisphere where current environmental conditions might suggest that transmission should be increased, and we are also seeing falls in areas where lockdown measures have not been very severe, and overall seroprevalence is low. So why is this happening?

Whilst searching for an answer, I wondered if space weather could have anything to do with it (its the only thing that could have influenced the whole N. Hemisphere at the same time that I can think of) but data is sketchy, and it is quite a bit of a 'reach'. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/...gion-2797.html.

It is too soon for vaccines to have had such a marked effect across such a large geographical area also.

Any ideas anyone? It certainly is a puzzle...
Click to expand...

Herd immunity?


OPINION COMMENTARY


We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
...

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
 
Here is another analysis out today:

What will it take for US to reach #herdimmunity & when will we get there? Use
@nytimes
's interactive tool based on
@PHICORteam

When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.
See how vaccines, distancing measures and the rise of coronavirus variants affect projections for herd immunity and when we might reach it.
nytimes.com

--------------------------------------------------------------

The bottom line is that no one knows what is going to happen.

In the last few posts we have posted opinions from Mike Osterholm PhD., Marty Makary M.D., and Bruce Lee, M.D.

Read through the data at the links, look at other sources too, and assess your personal situation.

We have said for many years to always use at least two sources for your news and use your common sense.
 
Last edited:
Why are the number of cases going down in the northern hemishere?

Could it be that changes in the immune system during shorter days effect transmissibility of the virus in humans? Or the response of the immune system during shorter days is such that more people present asymptomatically and never go and get tested?

I do not know. But certain things in this article caught my eye and make me wonder. We know that influenza is more prevalent during the winter, but that does not mean that Covid will be too. It seems to do quite well near the equator. This is not an area of expertise for me. Maybe someone here with some knowledge in this area might take a look at this article and give their thoughts on it.

​​​​​​Day length predicts investment in human immune function: Shorter days yield greater investment
https://www.semanticscholar.org/pap...eyva/e35fe502ba2221ede8c1e4148781c77be036a3ae
 
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