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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

I was reading the thread regarding the rise in cases in Singapore.
I think it’s really important to pay attention to how quickly the spread happens there to see what would happen in other places. One of the recent patients is a driver so would have been in close contact. Also two maids.
I hope they are able to contain with contact tracing. If not we will see what the spread of the disease looks like in a city.
 
Source: https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/02/08/a102772698.html

First-tier cities Shenzhen and Chongqing have closed cities successively
Beijing Time: 2020-02-09 12:19


[NTD Beijing, February 9, 2020] China's new crown virus pneumonia epidemic is out of control. Currently, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Liaoning provinces have announced closure of villages and front-line economic cities, including Chongqing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Tianjin. More than 80 cities have been announced to close the city or closed management. Companies expected to start construction next Monday will not only increase the pressure to combat the epidemic, but also face many variables of resumption of work.

After the Lantern Festival, Chinese companies in many places are expected to resume work next Monday. Beijing, which was supposed to resume traffic this week, was still deserted on Friday, and no crowds of returnees were seen.

With the spread of the new crown virus epidemic, many cities have turned from imported to local confirmed cases, and have begun to enter closed or semi-closed cities.

Economically important city of Shenzhen, Guangdong announced the full implementation of "closed management" on the 8th. On the evening of the 7th, there was a long line of taxis at the Shenzhen port to transport people to Hong Kong.

Foxconn, the iPhone's largest assembly plant, was scheduled to resume work next Monday, but notified the staff at the Chinese headquarters and the Shenzhen plant on Saturday that it will not resume work after the 10th holiday. The move will worsen supply disruptions to Apple, Amazon, Google and Huawei.

In addition, international luxury cruise ships were also affected by the epidemic situation. The "Diamond Princess" cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan, added 3 new confirmed cases, and the total number of confirmed diagnoses on the ship reached 64.

At present, countries outside Hong Kong, including Hong Kong and Macau, have accumulated more than 340 confirmed diagnoses, distributed in 27 countries and regions.

Thailand added seven confirmed cases on Saturday, three Thais and four Chinese, with 32 confirmed cases. North Korea also reported its first confirmed case. The other cases were Singapore with 33 cases, Hong Kong with 26 cases and Japan with 26 cases. New confirmed cases have also appeared in France, Malaysia and the UAE.

NTD reporter Xie Xinjie comprehensive report
 
Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-china-quarantine-endemic-1.5456641

What if China fails to contain the coronavirus outbreak?
WHO's 'greatest concern' is that coronavirus will spread to developing nations
Adam Miller ? CBC News ? Posted: Feb 08, 2020 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 2 hours ago

China's efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak by quarantining millions are unprecedented. But experts say if they fail, the global ramifications could be catastrophic.

An estimated 50 million people are under quarantine in China's central Hubei province. While there is hope for a downward trend in the number of cases, the unforeseen consequences of the quarantines have called their effectiveness into question.

"I don't think the quarantine was warranted in China," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security...
 
Ok. So now being criticized as having a "hidden agenda" for allowing info from Epoch Times in our discussion forum. And for the record, we did report above that the Epoch Times was sanctioned by facebook (like facebook is the greater decider anyway).

Hey - fyi - there is no hidden agenda here. We don't know any Fa lun G ong people. We are not part of their religion (cult?). I have no idea what that religion is about.

We are not political. I can tell you 100% fact, and not political, that the Chinese government has no credibility. Period. This is my opinion after following disease outbreaks for 14 years. I have other opinions too. For instance, I thought the South Korea government did a fine job communicating the truth about their MERS outbreak a few years ago.

Comments are welcome. We will publish all denials as we did with the Epoch Times. Scroll up. Now stop sending emails on this issue.

Back off.


 
Je souhaiterai savoir si l'on peut acc?der aux plans de ces deux h?pitaux sp?cialis?s de 1000 et 1600 lits, construit en 15 jours, en Chine, aux crit?res d'entr?e retenus, aux traitements propos?s et aux r?sultats et des personnels soignants et des patients ?
Une autre info que je ne trouve pas est de savoir si ce serons les seuls ou ? Ce pourrait faire l'objet d'un post s?par? avec comme titre les h?pitaux sp?cialis?s , pr?sentation, fonctionnement ( dont la restauration propos?e) et r?sultats ...
 
sharon sanders said:
More from the "outlawed cult" Epoch Times. As we have a disclaimer posted about all government case numbers we also do not know the validity of the below you tube.

Viewer beware.

Epoch times phone investigation conducted Feb 4, investigator pretending to be from the Central party office in the below youtube.
[/URL]
Click to expand...

I noticed a few aspects that don't make sense.

A Right now the party is placing all the focus on hospitals, and we’ve been forgotten! Right now our transport and cremation volume is 4 to 5 times normal! Our staff have not rested since before the (Chinese) new year, nobody has taken any breaks,

A I already told you, we’re operating at 4 to 5 times normal volume

Q How many furnaces do you have?

A Our faculty should have 18, but only 11 are usable.

A I’ll take a risk and put my trust in you. Yesterday we accepted in total 127 bodies, cremated 116. Confirmed cases 8. So out of 127 we picked up, there were 8 confirmed cases according to death certificates. Suspected case 48. All these are on the death certificates I have at hand.
Click to expand...

Based on these statements, they cremated about 25 bodies every day before the pandemic. It seems peculiar that they would maintain 18 crematories (even with only 11 functional) for so few bodies, especially if a cremation only takes 50 minutes as is later stated.

Q Oh, if that’s the case, that’s not enough vehicles for 11 furnaces. So how much time does it take to cremate each body?

A 50 minutes
Click to expand...

Modern crematories in the US with a a 1 million BTU/hr primary burner (and 1 million BUT/hr afterburner) average 75-90 minutes per adult body depending on size.

Implanted devices with batteries such as pacemakers and ICD's can produce surprisingly large explosions that could damage an oven. These devices are typically removed by the mortician or crematory operator prior to cremation. Given the highly infectious nature of 2019-nCoV victims, I wonder how this is being addressed.

A Before, according to Wuhan regulations, we were not allowed after 12 noon, so we start early in the morning, from 6am, then start cremation, finished before noon. Let me tell you what’s the current situation. We collect the bodies, immediately cremate, non-stop all day.
Click to expand...

It seems very peculiar that crematories could only operate between 6am and noon. Modern crematories with an afterburner should not produce any odor in the exhaust. But, someone who can read mandarin can verify if these peculiar hours are indeed mandated in local regulations.
 
Zac said:
I noticed a few aspects that don't make sense.

...

Based on these statements, they cremated about 25 bodies every day before the pandemic. It seems peculiar that they would maintain 18 crematories (even with only 11 functional) for so few bodies, especially if a cremation only takes 50 minutes as is later stated.

...

It seems very peculiar that crematories could only operate between 6am and noon. Modern crematories with an afterburner should not produce any odor in the exhaust. But, someone who can read mandarin can verify if these peculiar hours are indeed mandated in local regulations.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I agree. China has a huge air quality problem so it makes sense that they only allow cremations in the morning. Also, the 50 minutes is the minimum time and probably doesn't include downtime in between. If they start at 6 am and are finished before noon each day and they use each for up to 3 cremations then the numbers make sense in this respect.
 
I'm concerned that the WHO has been reporting on the same 25 countries for the last week on their dashboard. Has there truly been no 1st cases in any other country? Does not make sense.
Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.
Click to expand...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...rica-1.5457133
 
Last edited:
daily summaries with lots of links :
https://www.labome.com/method/Wuhan-...2019-nCoV.html
-------------------------------------------------------------------
apparently no (increasing) outbreaks yet outside Wuhan
---------------------------------------------------------------------
update at http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/20..._2021930.shtml
now with fatality rates for cities in Hubei
Tianmen=5.08%,Wuhan=4.06%,Ezhou=3.29%,Jingmen=2.87 %,Qianjiang=2.44%,,Huanggang=2.01%
---------------------------------------------------------------
Wuhan:894,1033,1242,1967,1766,1501,1985,1379
Huber ex Wuhan : 1027,1070,1103,1189,1221,946,856,768
China ex Hubei: 678,722,890,728,707,696,558,509
(daily, since Feb.01)
Lipsitch on Feb.06 : “I would be really shocked if in 2 or 3 weeks there wasn't ongoing transmission
with hundreds of cases in several countries on several continents.”
================================================== ========
update at http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/s7860/2020...ccc8d45a.shtml
 
Last edited:
Is this true? If so, it's concerning. From tonight's CIDRAP post: "On Twitter, Jeremy Farrar, MD, PhD, director of Wellcome Trust, said the samples are important for understanding different aspects of the outbreak, including the evolution of the virus, the outbreak's scale, and transmission dynamics.

However, he said there haven't been any sequences from Wuhan since Jan 4, and that it's critical to have genetic information from the epicenter, where evolutionary pressure is greatest and information is needed to guide public health response steps."
 
Royal Caribbean Cruises
Novel Coronavirus Travel Alerts

UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 8, 2020


We are closely monitoring global developments regarding the coronavirus, and we are fully focused on protecting the health and safety of our guests and crew.

To comply with guidance from CDC, WHO and other public health authorities around the world, we are implementing several global measures to protect guests and crew. These measures are intentionally conservative and apply to anyone boarding our ships, guests and crew alike. We apologize for the inconvenience created by these precautionary measures.

Until further notice, all ships in the Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. fleet will adopt the following health screening protocols:

1. Regardless of nationality, we will deny boarding to:

a. Any guest who has traveled from, to or through mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau in the past 15 days.

b. Any guest who has come in contact with anyone from mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau in the past 15 days. The CDC characterizes contact with an individual as coming within six feet (2M) of a person.

c. All holders of China, Hong Kong and Macau passports.

...
https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruise-ships/itinerary-updates
 
Commonground said:
Is this true? If so, it's concerning. From tonight's CIDRAP post: "On Twitter, Jeremy Farrar, MD, PhD, director of Wellcome Trust, said the samples are important for understanding different aspects of the outbreak, including the evolution of the virus, the outbreak's scale, and transmission dynamics.

However, he said there haven't been any sequences from Wuhan since Jan 4, and that it's critical to have genetic information from the epicenter, where evolutionary pressure is greatest and information is needed to guide public health response steps."
Click to expand...

Dr Kevin Purcell and 2 others liked
pYXTqIc3_bigger.jpg

Jeremy Farrar

@JeremyFarrar
2019 n-CoV genome sequences
@AIDigest
- Sequences from China have been uploaded to GISAID on the following dates: Jan 10,11,12,18,19,21,22,24,29,30 Feb 3, 5 & from 13 other countries -
@WHO @mvankerkhove @vaseemoorthy @doctorsoumya
4:09 AM ? Feb 8, 2020?Twitter Web App

This is critical to help inform evolution of the virus, scale of the epidemic, transmission dynamics and much more. Critical that the public health interventions & logistics are not preventing ability of science to help guide evidence based policy decisions.

Critical to have virus sequence information from the epicentre, that is where the evolutionary pressures are greatest, info on transmission & scale so important to guide Chinese public health teams - but no viral sequence from Wuhan since 4 Jan?

A good summary http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-59-genomes-06-feb-2020/356

https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1226070550134607872
 
DHAKA: Aircrew from Bangladesh's national carrier Biman have refused to work on a flight aimed at repatriating citizens from virus-hit Chinese cities, forcing the government to scrap the evacuation plan.

The South Asian nation last week evacuated 312 people, mostly students, from the epicentre of the deadly outbreak, and had planned a second flight for another 171 Bangladeshis...

"We can't bring them because we can't send any flight," Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen told reporters on Saturday.

"No crew wants to go there. The crew who went there earlier don't want to go either."..:tiphat:https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-to-work-on-wuhan-evacuation-flight-12413616
 
[h=1]Migrant worker in Singapore is first Bangladeshi coronavirus patient[/h]
Staff Correspondent, bdnews24.com

Published: 10 Feb 2020 12:37 AM BdST Updated: 10 Feb 2020 12:37 AM BdST

The 39-year-old Bangladeshi work pass holder was warded in an isolation room at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases or NCID, the Singapore Ministry of Health said.

His symptoms surfaced on Feb 1, he went to a general practitioner clinic on Feb 3, and Changi General Hospital on Feb 5, according to The Straits Times.

He was admitted to the intensive care unit at Changi Hospital after a follow-up appointment at Bedok Polyclinic on Feb 7, the newspaper said.

He was confirmed to have the disease on Saturday afternoon, and was then transferred to the NCID.
...:tiphat:https://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/202...pore-is-first-bangladeshi-coronavirus-patient
 
Texas
“As of this [Sunday] morning, Metro Health is monitoring a small number of travelers who have returned from mainland China. Per the President’s public health emergency declaration, and consistent with state and CDC protocols, the travelers are in a 14-day self quarantine since their departure from China and they are not showing symptoms. They will monitor their temperature and check for signs or symptoms and report to Metro Health twice daily. If there is a confirmed case, we will share information as necessary, while also considering the privacy of these travelers.”:tiphat:https://news4sanantonio.com/news/lo...ly-back-from-china-at-home-in-self-quarantine
 
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